North American Tour Odds
Comments
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The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.ricardofurriel said:
Can you elaborate please?Mozzy said:
I feel like you're both saying the same thingNewfieintheUSA said:
No, it would bericardofurriel said:
So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.PJNB said:
You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.ricardofurriel said:
Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.gotthebottle said:
what's your first choice?ricardofurriel said:MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved
In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved
My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?
I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available
If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best Available0 -
ecdanc said:
Have to cordially disagree. What you describe is precisely what turns this into a guessing game. You may be right that they're doing things this way (and your point that they are notifying us show by show is well taken), but I don't think it's fairer or simpler.NewfieintheUSA said:
That makes no sense. How would person by person work?Mozzy said:
Other people have stated that they've heard directly from 10C that they are drawing person-by-person and not show-by-show. Person-by-person makes more sense for a fair lottery system, so I hope they're doing that.
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
Doing show by show is fair as it takes priority 1 first, and so on. They have clearly stated they'll be going show by show.
How would picking random people regardless of show be fairer? So if I get picked and get my first choice, and then get picked again before you get picked, I now get my 2nd choice (even if you have the same city as choice 1)?0 -
Should have added, you can see my post for how person-by-person would work. It's very simple, really. Just imagine a randomized spreadsheet. You go row-by-row assigning tickets to each person (whatever the best tickets are that they've requested) until you reach the bottom; then you start again.ecdanc said:
Have to cordially disagree. What you describe is precisely what turns this into a guessing game. You may be right that they're doing things this way (and your point that they are notifying us show by show is well taken), but I don't think it's fairer or simpler.NewfieintheUSA said:
That makes no sense. How would person by person work?Mozzy said:
Other people have stated that they've heard directly from 10C that they are drawing person-by-person and not show-by-show. Person-by-person makes more sense for a fair lottery system, so I hope they're doing that.
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
Doing show by show is fair as it takes priority 1 first, and so on. They have clearly stated they'll be going show by show.0 -
Not what I'm describing at all. I'm not suggesting you go back into a pool; I'm simply suggesting they randomize once. Thus, there would be no way for one person to be chosen twice before you're chosen once.NewfieintheUSA said:ecdanc said:
Have to cordially disagree. What you describe is precisely what turns this into a guessing game. You may be right that they're doing things this way (and your point that they are notifying us show by show is well taken), but I don't think it's fairer or simpler.NewfieintheUSA said:
That makes no sense. How would person by person work?Mozzy said:
Other people have stated that they've heard directly from 10C that they are drawing person-by-person and not show-by-show. Person-by-person makes more sense for a fair lottery system, so I hope they're doing that.
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
Doing show by show is fair as it takes priority 1 first, and so on. They have clearly stated they'll be going show by show.
How would picking random people regardless of show be fairer? So if I get picked and get my first choice, and then get picked again before you get picked, I now get my 2nd choice (even if you have the same city as choice 1)?0 -
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If I'm following you, I think the problem with this is that you would have people who ranked a show #2 potentially getting it in front of people who ranked it #1, right? Imagine that an overwhelming number of entries rank MSG first/Baltimore second. Once the MSG tickets are gone, when they pull another one of those entries out of the pile they'd award them Baltimore tickets, despite the fact that it's the second choice and there are people left in the pool who ranked it first, right? Doesn't seem like it works.ecdanc said:
FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.ecdanc said:
No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.
(And it would still be an elaborate game, just a different one).Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 20240 -
So if you put in for 'best available' and get tickets, I assume the email confirmation will tell you if you got GA or reserved seating. If not, wait until the week of January 27th?Ray J. T. said:
If I am reading this correctly, it would mean that you could possibly be notified before Sunday the 19th. I thought I had read somewhere that we would receive the notifications on Sunday.Renfield said:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
“Email confirmations will be sent out on a show-by-show basis over the course of 4 days, beginning Thursday, January 16th.”
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What's up with the LA odds? Not a high demand show? Not as many 10Cers out west? Me and a buddy are thinking of heading out there but just curious.Mansfield 6/30/08 - Wrigley Field 7/14/13 - Worcester I 10/15/13 - Global Citizen 9/26/15 - MSG II 5/2/16 - Fenway I 8/5/16 - Fenway II 8/7/16 - Fenway II 9/4/18 - LA I 5/6/22 - LA II 5/7/22 - MSG 9/11/22 - Nashville 9/16/22 - St. Paul I and II 8/31/23-9/2/23 - Napa 5/25/24 - MSG I 9/3/24 - MSG II 9/4/24 - Hollywood FL I 4/24/25 - Hollywood FL II 4/26/250
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Yes, you're exactly right, which is what makes it more like an actual lottery: you're simply waiting for your number to be drawn. When your number is drawn, you get tickets. I suppose it's a different game, but that game is....a lottery!!tdawe said:
If I'm following you, I think the problem with this is that you would have people who ranked a show #2 potentially getting it in front of people who ranked it #1, right? Imagine that an overwhelming number of entries rank MSG first/Baltimore second. Once the MSG tickets are gone, when they pull another one of those entries out of the pile they'd award them Baltimore tickets, despite the fact that it's the second choice and there are people left in the pool who ranked it first, right? Doesn't seem like it works.ecdanc said:
FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.ecdanc said:
No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.
(And it would still be an elaborate game, just a different one).0 -
They aren't, BTW, trying to evaluate how much you REALLY want to see a show with these rankings; the rankings simply exist so they know which tickets to give any individual first (according to my theory, which might not be how they do things at all).ecdanc said:
Yes, you're exactly right, which is what makes it more like an actual lottery: you're simply waiting for your number to be drawn. When your number is drawn, you get tickets. I suppose it's a different game, but that game is....a lottery!!tdawe said:
If I'm following you, I think the problem with this is that you would have people who ranked a show #2 potentially getting it in front of people who ranked it #1, right? Imagine that an overwhelming number of entries rank MSG first/Baltimore second. Once the MSG tickets are gone, when they pull another one of those entries out of the pile they'd award them Baltimore tickets, despite the fact that it's the second choice and there are people left in the pool who ranked it first, right? Doesn't seem like it works.ecdanc said:
FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.ecdanc said:
No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.
(And it would still be an elaborate game, just a different one).0 -
Can I use the same ticketmaster account for 2 Ten Club memberships? Or do I need to use 2 different Ticketmaster accounts?0
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If this is what happens then when they get to one of your priorities that has tickets available (whether its first, second, etc.), then I assume they allot you that show throw you back in the random selection pool again?Mozzy said:
The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.ricardofurriel said:
Can you elaborate please?Mozzy said:
I feel like you're both saying the same thingNewfieintheUSA said:
No, it would bericardofurriel said:
So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.PJNB said:
You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.ricardofurriel said:
Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.gotthebottle said:
what's your first choice?ricardofurriel said:MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved
In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved
My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?
I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available
If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best AvailableI wish I was a sacrifice, but somehow still lived on....0 -
I wouldn't risk it, especially since the name on the TM account is supposed to match the name on the Ten Club accountGR280729 said:Can I use the same ticketmaster account for 2 Ten Club memberships? Or do I need to use 2 different Ticketmaster accounts?0 -
I really don't think it will be drawn this way, pretty sure it will be show by show.ecdanc said:
They aren't, BTW, trying to evaluate how much you REALLY want to see a show with these rankings; the rankings simply exist so they know which tickets to give any individual first (according to my theory, which might not be how they do things at all).ecdanc said:
Yes, you're exactly right, which is what makes it more like an actual lottery: you're simply waiting for your number to be drawn. When your number is drawn, you get tickets. I suppose it's a different game, but that game is....a lottery!!tdawe said:
If I'm following you, I think the problem with this is that you would have people who ranked a show #2 potentially getting it in front of people who ranked it #1, right? Imagine that an overwhelming number of entries rank MSG first/Baltimore second. Once the MSG tickets are gone, when they pull another one of those entries out of the pile they'd award them Baltimore tickets, despite the fact that it's the second choice and there are people left in the pool who ranked it first, right? Doesn't seem like it works.ecdanc said:
FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.ecdanc said:
No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.
(And it would still be an elaborate game, just a different one).0 -
So having Baltimore GA or Baltimore Best Available as a 1st priority won't impact my odds of getting NYC as a 2nd priority?Mozzy said:
The reason I think you're saying the same thing is that 10C has told people they draw the lottery person by person from the lottery pool which would imply that if your name is drawn they go to your first choice that is available. So you if you have Baltimore GA ranked as your first choice and it is available, you get that. If your first choice is not available, they go to your second choice which would be Baltimore Reserved. If that's not available, they move down the list. People have won the lottery for 3rd or 4th choices which were lower odds and earlier shows than their 1st or 2nd choices which they lost, so it would seem to confirm that 10C goes by person-to-person rather than show by show. They have also stated that they consider GA to be best available over reserved seats.ricardofurriel said:
Can you elaborate please?Mozzy said:
I feel like you're both saying the same thingNewfieintheUSA said:
No, it would bericardofurriel said:
So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.PJNB said:
You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities.ricardofurriel said:
Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common. It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2.gotthebottle said:
what's your first choice?ricardofurriel said:MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
In the "old" system", I would have done
1- Baltimore GA
2- NYC Reserved
3- Baltimore Reserved
In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
1- Baltimore GA
2- Baltimore Reserved
3- NYC GA
4- NYC Reserved
My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?
I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you.
1. Baltimore Best Available
2. NYC Best Available
If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
So putting 1) Baltimore Best available would be no different than having 1) Baltimore GA and 2) Baltimore Best AvailableSevered Hand0 -
So what are the most recent odds and when were they posted?Turn this anger into
Nuclear fission0 -
Odds updating now (8:10am PST)
Baltimore: 16/74
MSG: 11/66
Nashville: 24/99
StL: 25/99
OKC: 77/99
DEN: 27/99
PHX: 44/99
SD: 42/99
LA1: 35/99
LA2: 32/99
OAK1: 37/99
OAK2: 47/99Post edited by Mozzy on0 -
Could you describe how you picture that working? I've tried to do that for my vision of things, and I'm genuinely curious about the ramifications of drawing show-by-show, especially as it relates to others' theories on ranking. I imagine a person who has Baltimore first and gets unlucky. They have MSG second, so they're screwed. They have Nashville third, but now everyone with Nashville 1 or 2 is ahead of them? Apologies if I'm misunderstanding.NewfieintheUSA said:
I really don't think it will be drawn this way, pretty sure it will be show by show.ecdanc said:
They aren't, BTW, trying to evaluate how much you REALLY want to see a show with these rankings; the rankings simply exist so they know which tickets to give any individual first (according to my theory, which might not be how they do things at all).ecdanc said:
Yes, you're exactly right, which is what makes it more like an actual lottery: you're simply waiting for your number to be drawn. When your number is drawn, you get tickets. I suppose it's a different game, but that game is....a lottery!!tdawe said:
If I'm following you, I think the problem with this is that you would have people who ranked a show #2 potentially getting it in front of people who ranked it #1, right? Imagine that an overwhelming number of entries rank MSG first/Baltimore second. Once the MSG tickets are gone, when they pull another one of those entries out of the pile they'd award them Baltimore tickets, despite the fact that it's the second choice and there are people left in the pool who ranked it first, right? Doesn't seem like it works.ecdanc said:
FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.ecdanc said:
No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.
(And it would still be an elaborate game, just a different one).0 -
So overnight changes in odds:Mozzy said:Odds updating now (8:10am PST)
Baltimore: 16/74
MSG: 11/66
Nashville: 28/99
StL: 25/99
OKC: 77/99
DEN: 27/99
PHX: 44/99
SD: 42/99
LA1: 35/99
LA2: 32/99
OAK1: 37/99
OAK2: 47/99
Baltimore: 19 to 16 / 85 to 74
MSG: 13 to 11 / 74 to 66
Nashville: 28 to 24 / 99
STL: 28 to 25 / 99
OKC: 92 to 77 / 99
Denver: 32 to 27 /99
PHX: 51 to 44 / 99
SD: 49 to 42 / 99
LA1: 37 to 35 / 99
LA2: 39 to 32 / 99
OAK1: 43 to 37 / 99
OAK2: 55 to 47 /99
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