Trump

Gaining (as expected at the convention) on the 538 forecast.

BS44325 said:

mrussel1 said:

Political malpractice and a shitshow... that's what the Cruz thing was. How does Trump provide a prime time speaking spot when he was told by Cruz, that he would not be endorsing Trump. What kind of idiot does such a thing? This guy is a political neophyte and will get eaten up on the world stage. He has so many unforced errors, I'm embarrassed for him.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but I think the jury is still out on this. Since Trump came down that escalator we have all continued to get this wrong. This week has been messy as all hell but never in our lifetime has a convention generated more excitement. We all see it through our own lens but the craziness has been gradually building to an epic crescendo which is tonight's Trump speech. None of us know which Trump will see tonight or how it will all play out but mark my words it will be one of the most widely watched speeches in political history. There in lies Trump's genius but what he does with the moment is anybody's guess.

I must disagree with this statement. Ratings are down from 2012 RNC according to CNN: http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/20/media/republican-national-convention-ratings/

Now tonight is the big one. 4 years ago, RNC drew 30MM on Thursday, and the DNC drew 35MM. We shall see how he does...

mrussel1 said:

PJ_Soul said:

As much as I can't stand Ted Cruz, his speech was fantastic, lol. I wish there was more footage of all the people on the floor of the convention while he gave it, just for entertainment's sake.
But now that I'm over the minor glee his speech caused, I go right back to being really worried about Ted Cruz, who I have maintained would be even worse that Trump. He's an evangelical who wants to apply his religion in politics, and that scares me more than anything. I definitely feel like he is trying to set himself up for something down the road. Who knows how far he wants to take it. Is it as simple and having his eyes on the next election? Or is it a more complicated plan? Perhaps he is trying to basically form a new tea party kind of thing, but legit this time. If the GOP is doomed, as some seem to think, maybe he is twisting his mustache and plotting a kind of Republican take-over.

He made a gamble here. He had three options... lie low like Kasich and others. Endorse the candidate and be seen as a puppy dog like Christie and Carson OR put all the chips in and bank on Trump losing. I think overall, he made a good bet because he can rise from the ashes of the party. But we shall see. I think it was generally self serving, but that doesn't make it wrong.

Yeah, I agree he made a good bet (if good bet means it's good for Cruz... I'm going to call the a bad bet, lol. All about perspective). I wouldn't say the odds were against him though. It was a reasonably safe bet that this would work for him long term. I am so worried about this precisely because it was very clever on his part. Very manipulative.

mrussel1 said:

PJ_Soul said:

As much as I can't stand Ted Cruz, his speech was fantastic, lol. I wish there was more footage of all the people on the floor of the convention while he gave it, just for entertainment's sake.
But now that I'm over the minor glee his speech caused, I go right back to being really worried about Ted Cruz, who I have maintained would be even worse that Trump. He's an evangelical who wants to apply his religion in politics, and that scares me more than anything. I definitely feel like he is trying to set himself up for something down the road. Who knows how far he wants to take it. Is it as simple and having his eyes on the next election? Or is it a more complicated plan? Perhaps he is trying to basically form a new tea party kind of thing, but legit this time. If the GOP is doomed, as some seem to think, maybe he is twisting his mustache and plotting a kind of Republican take-over.

He made a gamble here. He had three options... lie low like Kasich and others. Endorse the candidate and be seen as a puppy dog like Christie and Carson OR put all the chips in and bank on Trump losing. I think overall, he made a good bet because he can rise from the ashes of the party. But we shall see. I think it was generally self serving, but that doesn't make it wrong.

I'm not sure he can rise from the ashes regardless of a Trump loss. Of all those people named I think Walker played it perfectly but again who the hell knows?

mrussel1 said:

BS44325 said:

mrussel1 said:

Political malpractice and a shitshow... that's what the Cruz thing was. How does Trump provide a prime time speaking spot when he was told by Cruz, that he would not be endorsing Trump. What kind of idiot does such a thing? This guy is a political neophyte and will get eaten up on the world stage. He has so many unforced errors, I'm embarrassed for him.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but I think the jury is still out on this. Since Trump came down that escalator we have all continued to get this wrong. This week has been messy as all hell but never in our lifetime has a convention generated more excitement. We all see it through our own lens but the craziness has been gradually building to an epic crescendo which is tonight's Trump speech. None of us know which Trump will see tonight or how it will all play out but mark my words it will be one of the most widely watched speeches in political history. There in lies Trump's genius but what he does with the moment is anybody's guess.

I must disagree with this statement. Ratings are down from 2012 RNC according to CNN: http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/20/media/republican-national-convention-ratings/

Now tonight is the big one. 4 years ago, RNC drew 30MM on Thursday, and the DNC drew 35MM. We shall see how he does...

You could be right if ratings = excitement. Ratings is definitely one measurement and not an unimportant one but youtube/social media etc penetrates far more homes then it did previously. Either way tonight is the big one.

mrussel1 said:

BS44325 said:

mrussel1 said:

BS44325 said:

mrussel1 said:

Political malpractice and a shitshow... that's what the Cruz thing was. How does Trump provide a prime time speaking spot when he was told by Cruz, that he would not be endorsing Trump. What kind of idiot does such a thing? This guy is a political neophyte and will get eaten up on the world stage. He has so many unforced errors, I'm embarrassed for him.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but I think the jury is still out on this. Since Trump came down that escalator we have all continued to get this wrong. This week has been messy as all hell but never in our lifetime has a convention generated more excitement. We all see it through our own lens but the craziness has been gradually building to an epic crescendo which is tonight's Trump speech. None of us know which Trump will see tonight or how it will all play out but mark my words it will be one of the most widely watched speeches in political history. There in lies Trump's genius but what he does with the moment is anybody's guess.

I must disagree with this statement. Ratings are down from 2012 RNC according to CNN: http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/20/media/republican-national-convention-ratings/

Now tonight is the big one. 4 years ago, RNC drew 30MM on Thursday, and the DNC drew 35MM. We shall see how he does...

You could be right if ratings = excitement. Ratings is definitely one measurement and not an unimportant one but youtube/social media etc penetrates far more homes then it did previously. Either way tonight is the big one.

What is your empirical measurement of excitement?

A tingling in the nether regions?

mrussel1 said:

BS44325 said:

mrussel1 said:

BS44325 said:

mrussel1 said:

Political malpractice and a shitshow... that's what the Cruz thing was. How does Trump provide a prime time speaking spot when he was told by Cruz, that he would not be endorsing Trump. What kind of idiot does such a thing? This guy is a political neophyte and will get eaten up on the world stage. He has so many unforced errors, I'm embarrassed for him.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but I think the jury is still out on this. Since Trump came down that escalator we have all continued to get this wrong. This week has been messy as all hell but never in our lifetime has a convention generated more excitement. We all see it through our own lens but the craziness has been gradually building to an epic crescendo which is tonight's Trump speech. None of us know which Trump will see tonight or how it will all play out but mark my words it will be one of the most widely watched speeches in political history. There in lies Trump's genius but what he does with the moment is anybody's guess.

I must disagree with this statement. Ratings are down from 2012 RNC according to CNN: http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/20/media/republican-national-convention-ratings/

Now tonight is the big one. 4 years ago, RNC drew 30MM on Thursday, and the DNC drew 35MM. We shall see how he does...

You could be right if ratings = excitement. Ratings is definitely one measurement and not an unimportant one but youtube/social media etc penetrates far more homes then it did previously. Either way tonight is the big one.

What is your empirical measurement of excitement?

https://youtu.be/HS-GncdffBc

Has anyone been watching Colbert this week? I don't normally watch him (not because I don't like him), but I'm recording this week because I know he can make the RNC coverage entertaining as fuck. And he is managing that very well. Lots of laughs. I liked his variation on the "Trump/Pence" campaign logo in response to Pence's comment about how he balances out Trump's, um, eccentricities, I'll call them. He changed the names to "Crazy/Boring".

But on to a more serious note about Trump. Apparently, he doesn't intend to be the President when he's President. This is why everyone should be concerned about Pence:

"One day this past May, Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., reached out to a senior adviser to Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, who left the presidential race just a few weeks before. As a candidate, Kasich declared in March that Trump was “really not prepared to be president of the United States,” and the following month he took the highly unusual step of coordinating with his rival Senator Ted Cruz in an effort to deny Trump the nomination. But according to the Kasich adviser (who spoke only under the condition that he not be named), Donald Jr. wanted to make him an offer nonetheless: Did he have any interest in being the most powerful vice president in history?

When Kasich’s adviser asked how this would be the case, Donald Jr. explained that his father’s vice president would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy.

Then what, the adviser asked, would Trump be in charge of?

“Making America great again” was the casual reply."



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/magazine/how-donald-trump-picked-his-running-mate.html?_r=0

Cliffy6745 said:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/opinion/what-republicans-really-think-about-trump.html

Many great quotes in that article. It is heartening to see Republicans say these things. It gives me a little bit of hope. Kind of. Until anti-abortionism and the restriction of gay rights are off the Republican table, I continue to feel really nervous about the Republican party no matter what some of them so aptly deduce about Trump, but at least some of them aren't nuts.