***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

Cliffy6745

The Fixer wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Cards in on Haren and Westbrook. Carpenter/Wainwright/Haren/Garcia would be pretty solid.

How you guys feeling today? I believe it was Fixer and I that talked a while back about how Oswalts numbers have been trending down, although they have bounced back this year and he is still a very good pitcher. Is he worth the price tag though? Solat brings up a good point that it will mean $150 mil comitted to only 16 players. Do you trust Amaro to fill out important spots on a very tight budget? If the Phillies get the Astros to kick back some money that means a bigger haul for them.

yeah cliffy, it was definitely me that discussed oswalt with you. I worry about him at his age and workload breaking down over the next few years. if you look at his numbers his IP and K/9 rates have steadily declined over the last 5 years or so. That being said, the phils are desperate for another pitcher (would have been nice to have cliff lee, but I digress). I'm just scared to death to see the package that RAJ gives away.

Yeah, that has to be a bit of a concern, he is 32, with almost 2,000 innings on his arm, very expensive and a small guy. His k/9 is actually at a career high aside from his rookie year but yeah, they were declining until this year. BB/9 is a bit up this year as well but overall he is having a very solid season.

It will no doubt be a solid rotation

Cliffy6745

This is absolutely perfect from that Fixer, what I have been trying to say:

That leaves two scenarios: either Werth and possibly a prospect go for a starting pitcher, or Werth is traded for prospects and some other prospects are traded for a pitcher in a separate deal. Neither seems particularly likely to leave the Phillies with a better team, and this convoluted scenario seems awfully similar to dealing for Roy Halladay and then turning around and dealing Cliff Lee just to re-stock the farm system. It doesn’t mean that the Phillies shouldn’t trade Werth – selling isn’t the worst idea given their current situation – nor does it preclude a call up for Brown, as he could easily replace Raul Ibanez, who is in the middle of a complete collapse.

The idea of trading Werth in order to make the team better today, though? As much as I try to wrap my head around it, I can’t find a way for it to happen. There is about a 1% chance that Dominic Brown can even approach Jayson Werth’s value this season, and no pitcher on the market approaches Werth’s value either. If this move or combination of moves happens, this is just one more mark in a series of questionable moves by Ruben Amaro Jr. His simultaneous desire to stock a farm system while also improving for a playoff run just might lead to a string of .500 seasons instead of the dynasty we may have expected after two straight World Series.

jamminpearls

Dom Brown played left field last night. Which has some believing that The phillies are tryn to also move ibanez in the deal which could invovle carlos lee of hou to some team. Also happ was pulled after 3 solid innings of no run baseball while striking out 3. Imo werth goes to tampa oswalt a player come here and happ and prospects go to houston,I also wouldn't be suprised if ibanez and carlos lee are involved in the trade somehow although lee's salary would be a hold up for anyteam that would get him.

The Fixer

Cliffy6745 wrote:

This is absolutely perfect from that Fixer, what I have been trying to say:

That leaves two scenarios: either Werth and possibly a prospect go for a starting pitcher, or Werth is traded for prospects and some other prospects are traded for a pitcher in a separate deal. Neither seems particularly likely to leave the Phillies with a better team, and this convoluted scenario seems awfully similar to dealing for Roy Halladay and then turning around and dealing Cliff Lee just to re-stock the farm system. It doesn’t mean that the Phillies shouldn’t trade Werth – selling isn’t the worst idea given their current situation – nor does it preclude a call up for Brown, as he could easily replace Raul Ibanez, who is in the middle of a complete collapse.

The idea of trading Werth in order to make the team better today, though? As much as I try to wrap my head around it, I can’t find a way for it to happen. There is about a 1% chance that Dominic Brown can even approach Jayson Werth’s value this season, and no pitcher on the market approaches Werth’s value either. If this move or combination of moves happens, this is just one more mark in a series of questionable moves by Ruben Amaro Jr. His simultaneous desire to stock a farm system while also improving for a playoff run just might lead to a string of .500 seasons instead of the dynasty we may have expected after two straight World Series.

the entire scenario blows for the phils. If this dbag GM would have just kept lee they wouldn't be in this shitty situation. I do see the rationale of moving werth this week though if they get a SP that they control for next year. I'm actually in favor of such a move, assuming they don't have to give up any top prospects (singleton, colvin, cosart).

a buddy just texted me he heard werth and happ to tampa for upton and davis or garza.

I think something happens by game time on saturday...amaro seems hellbent on making a move

The Juggler

hey fixer...i don't have a lot of confidence in ruben either.......but we all have to remember who he's dancing with here. no other than, edward wade the 2nd!

gotta give amaro the edge here.


someone here mentioned that carlos lee might be part of the oswalt package? how could that be?


make it happen.

Cliffy6745

The Fixer wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

This is absolutely perfect from that Fixer, what I have been trying to say:

That leaves two scenarios: either Werth and possibly a prospect go for a starting pitcher, or Werth is traded for prospects and some other prospects are traded for a pitcher in a separate deal. Neither seems particularly likely to leave the Phillies with a better team, and this convoluted scenario seems awfully similar to dealing for Roy Halladay and then turning around and dealing Cliff Lee just to re-stock the farm system. It doesn’t mean that the Phillies shouldn’t trade Werth – selling isn’t the worst idea given their current situation – nor does it preclude a call up for Brown, as he could easily replace Raul Ibanez, who is in the middle of a complete collapse.

The idea of trading Werth in order to make the team better today, though? As much as I try to wrap my head around it, I can’t find a way for it to happen. There is about a 1% chance that Dominic Brown can even approach Jayson Werth’s value this season, and no pitcher on the market approaches Werth’s value either. If this move or combination of moves happens, this is just one more mark in a series of questionable moves by Ruben Amaro Jr. His simultaneous desire to stock a farm system while also improving for a playoff run just might lead to a string of .500 seasons instead of the dynasty we may have expected after two straight World Series.

the entire scenario blows for the phils. If this dbag GM would have just kept lee they wouldn't be in this shitty situation. I do see the rationale of moving werth this week though if they get a SP that they control for next year. I'm actually in favor of such a move, assuming they don't have to give up any top prospects (singleton, colvin, cosart).

a buddy just texted me he heard werth and happ to tampa for upton and davis or garza.

I think something happens by game time on saturday...amaro seems hellbent on making a move

Yeah, I just don't really get it. I get that they will have a very solid 3 starters but I don't get how it makes the team better like Moore from fangrapghs noted, even for next year. The rotation will be solid but the lineup is going to have so many question marks, and no budget to fix it.

haha, that would be funny if it was upton after our conversation the other day. That would be such a lopsided trade in favor of the Phillies, it cant be true.

The Fixer

The Jeagler wrote:

hey fixer...i don't have a lot of confidence in ruben either.......but we all have to remember who he's dancing with here. no other than, edward wade the 2nd!

gotta give amaro the edge here.


someone here mentioned that carlos lee might be part of the oswalt package? how could that be?


make it happen.

ed wade vs amaro is like watching the royals vs pirates. I'd pay to hear those trade talks.

jammin threw the Lee thing out there last night (there were some quality posts last night -- if you get bored check them out). It's not too crazy either. if the phils want oswalt, the stros can tell them they have to take the fat cow's (Lee) salary too. So a trade of oswalt and lee for ibanez and prospects isn't out of the realm of possibilities. not likely, but not completely crazy either

The Fixer

Cliffy6745 wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

This is absolutely perfect from that Fixer, what I have been trying to say:

That leaves two scenarios: either Werth and possibly a prospect go for a starting pitcher, or Werth is traded for prospects and some other prospects are traded for a pitcher in a separate deal. Neither seems particularly likely to leave the Phillies with a better team, and this convoluted scenario seems awfully similar to dealing for Roy Halladay and then turning around and dealing Cliff Lee just to re-stock the farm system. It doesn’t mean that the Phillies shouldn’t trade Werth – selling isn’t the worst idea given their current situation – nor does it preclude a call up for Brown, as he could easily replace Raul Ibanez, who is in the middle of a complete collapse.

The idea of trading Werth in order to make the team better today, though? As much as I try to wrap my head around it, I can’t find a way for it to happen. There is about a 1% chance that Dominic Brown can even approach Jayson Werth’s value this season, and no pitcher on the market approaches Werth’s value either. If this move or combination of moves happens, this is just one more mark in a series of questionable moves by Ruben Amaro Jr. His simultaneous desire to stock a farm system while also improving for a playoff run just might lead to a string of .500 seasons instead of the dynasty we may have expected after two straight World Series.

the entire scenario blows for the phils. If this dbag GM would have just kept lee they wouldn't be in this shitty situation. I do see the rationale of moving werth this week though if they get a SP that they control for next year. I'm actually in favor of such a move, assuming they don't have to give up any top prospects (singleton, colvin, cosart).

a buddy just texted me he heard werth and happ to tampa for upton and davis or garza.

I think something happens by game time on saturday...amaro seems hellbent on making a move

Yeah, I just don't really get it. I get that they will have a very solid 3 starters but I don't get how it makes the team better like Moore from fangrapghs noted, even for next year. The rotation will be solid but the lineup is going to have so many question marks, and no budget to fix it.

haha, that would be funny if it was upton after our conversation the other day. That would be such a lopsided trade in favor of the Phillies, it cant be true.

I can see tampa dumping upton just to get rid of him (like the braves did with escobar last week). they have jennings waiting in the minors.

happ would be a disaster in that division

Cliffy6745

Yeah, I can see them dumping upton in a second but one of the other two, not for Happ and Werth.

Cliffy6745

But to the point, a pitcher like Garza, Davis or Shields makes so much more sense to me that Oswalt.

Cliffy6745

Not to just keep posting random shit, but I can see a Werth + Prospect not named Happ, for one of those guys plus Upton, and I think that is a great great deal for the Phillies. The Phillies get a good young pitcher who is under control and fairly inexpensive for a while and the Rays get Werth for their last push this year. That makes absolute sense for both teams I think.

The Fixer

Cliffy6745 wrote:

But to the point, a pitcher like Garza, Davis or Shields makes so much more sense to me that Oswalt.

I agree there. An OF of brown, upton, and victorino would be amazing...the ball would never hit the grass.

Here's what olney had in today's blog...not much new

Roy Oswalt has wanted a chance to play for a winner, and he mused to a friend earlier this year that he wants what Roy Halladay got in the offseason -- a chance to land with a team capable of winning the World Series. And so today or tomorrow, assuming the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros work out a tentative agreement for the right-hander, Oswalt will have a chance to accept or reject the exact opportunity that Halladay had -- to pitch for the Phillies.

In order to make this happen, and to balance out their budget numbers, the Phillies are in simultaneous talks with the Tampa Bay Rays about outfielder Jayson Werth.

But talent evaluators with other teams asked an interesting question Tuesday night, as ESPN reported the on-going talks: If the Phillies land Oswalt, are they good enough to contend for the World Series?

"They've got real holes over there, and I know they need a starting pitcher," one executive said. "But I think their lineup is as much of a problem now [as the pitching questions]. If they got two Roy Oswalts, I'm not sure it would make a difference."

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has been pushing like crazy to trade Werth, and he has told others that he'd really like to call up Domonic Brown, who is hitting .346 in Triple-A. Would the rookie be able to jump-start the offense? It's hard to say. A lineup that already leans to the left would get even more left-handed, and Brown would probably go through the inevitable growing pains, as Jason Heyward and others have experienced this season. He is known to be an aggressive hitter -- he's got 33 walks and 66 strikeouts in 314 at-bats this season with AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley -- and that could work against him during his break-in period.

This is what the Phillies' lineup with Domonic Brown and Chase Utley (when the second baseman comes back) and without Werth would look like:

SS Jimmy Rollins: Switch-hitter
3B Placido Polanco: Right-handed
2B Chase Utley: Left-handed
1B Ryan Howard: Left-handed
CF Shane Victorino: Switch-hitter
RF Domonic Brown: Left-handed
LF Raul Ibanez: Left-handed
C Carlos Ruiz: Right-handed

But what the Oswalt/Brown/Werth movement could be about, at its heart, is an effort to start positioning the Phillies for 2011. Oswalt is under contract for 2011; Werth is going to depart as a free agent after this season; and Brown would be better in 2011 for the experience he would gain this year.

These conversations might have a greater impact on American League pennant race, if Werth lands with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have been seeking an upgrade in the middle of their lineup. They tried Pat Burrell and Hank Blalock and others, and consistency from the 5-6-7 spots in their lineup continues to be a problem, because of the high strikeout rates and low batting averages of Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton and others.

Werth is a good defensive outfielder, he can run, he can hit with power and he draws walks. But the Rays would be getting him when he's mired in a deep, deep slump. His OPS has dropped from month to month as he heads to free agency and is under .600 for July. He has four homers in 142 at-bats in June and July (all of which came in June), and he is on his way to a season of about 160 strikeouts. It's possible that Werth would represent more of the same for the Rays in the middle of their lineup.

The talks are advanced, reports the Houston Chronicle. Amaro hinted that he's ready to deal, and that was before Jamie Moyer strained his elbow.

Cliffy6745

This is the heart of it though:

"They've got real holes over there, and I know they need a starting pitcher," one executive said. "But I think their lineup is as much of a problem now [as the pitching questions]. If they got two Roy Oswalts, I'm not sure it would make a difference."

That lineup is not scary, even next year.

The Juggler

Cliffy6745 wrote:

This is the heart of it though:

"They've got real holes over there, and I know they need a starting pitcher," one executive said. "But I think their lineup is as much of a problem now [as the pitching questions]. If they got two Roy Oswalts, I'm not sure it would make a difference."

That lineup is not scary, even next year.

not if guys start hitting to their potential again...utley hopefully will be back in a month or so too. definitely next year.

The Fixer

Cliffy6745 wrote:

This is the heart of it though:

"They've got real holes over there, and I know they need a starting pitcher," one executive said. "But I think their lineup is as much of a problem now [as the pitching questions]. If they got two Roy Oswalts, I'm not sure it would make a difference."

That lineup is not scary, even next year.

A lot of that depends on what brown gives them. You can't assume his numbers will be as good as werths, but everyone in the lineup has underachieved this year. Hopefully there would be less injuries and a return to the mean for rollins, utley, and victorino.

The lineup might not be as good as the 2009 version, but I think it would be fine in the NL. With three solid SPs and that lineup I think the phils would be among the favorites in the NL

The Juggler

The Fixer wrote:

Cliffy6745 wrote:

This is the heart of it though:

"They've got real holes over there, and I know they need a starting pitcher," one executive said. "But I think their lineup is as much of a problem now [as the pitching questions]. If they got two Roy Oswalts, I'm not sure it would make a difference."

That lineup is not scary, even next year.

A lot of that depends on what brown gives them. You can't assume his numbers will be as good as werths, but everyone in the lineup has underachieved this year. Hopefully there would be less injuries and a return to the mean for rollins, utley, and victorino.

The lineup might not be as good as the 2009 version, but I think it would be fine in the NL. With three solid SPs and that lineup I think the phils would be among the favorites in the NL

i'd be fine wih a little weaker lineup if our rotation looks like that. that's a beast of a rotation for the next couple years...

Solat13

I know Werth has been terrible, but can someone answer me this question, if Werth is traded, will Howard see a strike the rest of the season in a big spot.

I mean with with either Raul, Victorino, Brown, or Francisco batting 5th the rest of the year, why would a pitcher give Howard a pitch to hit.

The Juggler

Solat13 wrote:

I know Werth has been terrible, but can someone answer me this question, if Werth is traded, will Howard see a strike the rest of the season in a big spot.

I mean with with either Raul, Victorino, Brown, or Francisco batting 5th the rest of the year, why would a pitcher give Howard a pitch to hit.

that is a great point. maybe the carlos lee thing wil come to fruition though...

The Fixer

Solat13 wrote:

I know Werth has been terrible, but can someone answer me this question, if Werth is traded, will Howard see a strike the rest of the season in a big spot.

I mean with with either Raul, Victorino, Brown, or Francisco batting 5th the rest of the year, why would a pitcher give Howard a pitch to hit.

I think that lineup protection stuff is bull shit. who hit behind howard the year he won MVP? (burrell, who didn't even hit his weight). who hit behind pujols before they got holliday?

that stuff doesn't matter. but I'm the guy that's shocked if any pitcher throws howard a fastball in any situation

The Fixer

The Jeagler wrote:

Solat13 wrote:

I know Werth has been terrible, but can someone answer me this question, if Werth is traded, will Howard see a strike the rest of the season in a big spot.

I mean with with either Raul, Victorino, Brown, or Francisco batting 5th the rest of the year, why would a pitcher give Howard a pitch to hit.

that is a great point. maybe the carlos lee thing wil come to fruition though...

oh god I hope not