Study: Warming is stronger, happening sooner
SuzannePjam
Posts: 411
It was very upsetting watching Bill Maher the other night when he talked about how 23% of the Arctic melted in two years. It's so sad we have lost 8 years in being pro-active on this situation due to the current administration.
Study: Warming is stronger, happening sooner
Higher C02 emissions from fossil fuels, and weaker Earth, cited as reasons
MSNBC staff and news service reports
Just a days after the Nobel prize was awarded for global warming work, an alarming new study finds that warming signals are stronger, and happening sooner than expected, due to increased human emissions of carbon dioxide and an Earth less able to absorb them.
Carbon dioxide emissions were 35 percent higher in 2006 than in 1990, a much faster growth rate than anticipated, researchers reported in Tuesday’s edition of the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Increased industrial use of fossil fuels coupled with a decline in the ability of land and oceans to absorb CO2 were listed as causes of the increase.
The changes “characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing,” the researchers wrote.
“The new twist here is the demonstration that weakening land and ocean sinks are contributing to the accelerating growth of atmospheric CO2,” said co-author Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University.
The researchers said that human-induced warming had caused changes in wind patterns over the Southern Ocean that brought carbon-rich water toward the surface, reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb excess CO2 from the atmosphere.
On land, where plant growth is the major mechanism for soaking up CO2, droughts have curbed that ability, they stated.
Ocean sink 'really shocking'
Two climate researchers not involved with the study called it significant.
The “paper raises some very important issues that the public should be aware of," said Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "Namely that concentrations of CO2 are increasing at much higher rates than previously expected and this is in spite of the Kyoto Protocol that is designed to hold them down in western countries.”
Alan Robock, associate director of the Center for Environmental Prediction at Rutgers University, added that “what is really shocking is the reduction of the oceanic CO2 sink” —meaning the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere.
The researchers blamed that reduction on changes in wind circulation, but Robock said he also thinks rising ocean temperatures reduce the ability to take in carbon dioxide.
“Think that a warm Coke has less fizz than a cold Coke,” he said.
Carbon dioxide is the leading “greenhouse gas,” so named because their accumulation in the atmosphere can help trap heat from the sun, causing potentially dangerous warming of the planet.
While most atmospheric scientists accept the idea, finding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been a political problem because of potential effects on the economy. Earlier this month, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and former Vice President Al Gore for their work in calling attention to global warming.
“It turns out that global warming critics were right when they said that global climate models did not do a good job at predicting climate change,” Robock said. “But what has been wrong recently is that the climate is changing even faster than the models said. In fact, Arctic sea ice is melting much faster than any models predicted, and sea level is rising much faster than IPCC previously predicted.”
Will future repeat recent past?
According to the new study, carbon released from burning fossil fuel and making cement rose from 7.0 billion metric tons per year in 2000 to 8.4 billion metric tons in 2006. A metric ton is 2,205 pounds.
The growth rate increased from 1.3 percent per year in 1990-1999 to 3.3 percent per year in 2000-2006, the researchers added.
Trenberth noted that carbon dioxide is not the whole story — methane emissions have declined, so total greenhouse gases are not increasing as much as carbon dioxide alone. Also, he added, other pollution plays a role by cooling.
There are changes from year to year in the fraction of the atmosphere made up of carbon dioxide and the question is whether this increase is transient or will be sustained, he said.
“The theory suggests increases in (the atmospheric fraction), as is claimed here, but the evidence is not strong,” Trenberth said.
The paper looks at a rather short time to measure a trend, Robock added, “but the results they get certainly look reasonable, and much of the paper is looking at much longer trends.”
The research was supported by Australian, European and other international agencies.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Study: Warming is stronger, happening sooner
Higher C02 emissions from fossil fuels, and weaker Earth, cited as reasons
MSNBC staff and news service reports
Just a days after the Nobel prize was awarded for global warming work, an alarming new study finds that warming signals are stronger, and happening sooner than expected, due to increased human emissions of carbon dioxide and an Earth less able to absorb them.
Carbon dioxide emissions were 35 percent higher in 2006 than in 1990, a much faster growth rate than anticipated, researchers reported in Tuesday’s edition of the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Increased industrial use of fossil fuels coupled with a decline in the ability of land and oceans to absorb CO2 were listed as causes of the increase.
The changes “characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing,” the researchers wrote.
“The new twist here is the demonstration that weakening land and ocean sinks are contributing to the accelerating growth of atmospheric CO2,” said co-author Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University.
The researchers said that human-induced warming had caused changes in wind patterns over the Southern Ocean that brought carbon-rich water toward the surface, reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb excess CO2 from the atmosphere.
On land, where plant growth is the major mechanism for soaking up CO2, droughts have curbed that ability, they stated.
Ocean sink 'really shocking'
Two climate researchers not involved with the study called it significant.
The “paper raises some very important issues that the public should be aware of," said Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "Namely that concentrations of CO2 are increasing at much higher rates than previously expected and this is in spite of the Kyoto Protocol that is designed to hold them down in western countries.”
Alan Robock, associate director of the Center for Environmental Prediction at Rutgers University, added that “what is really shocking is the reduction of the oceanic CO2 sink” —meaning the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide, removing it from the atmosphere.
The researchers blamed that reduction on changes in wind circulation, but Robock said he also thinks rising ocean temperatures reduce the ability to take in carbon dioxide.
“Think that a warm Coke has less fizz than a cold Coke,” he said.
Carbon dioxide is the leading “greenhouse gas,” so named because their accumulation in the atmosphere can help trap heat from the sun, causing potentially dangerous warming of the planet.
While most atmospheric scientists accept the idea, finding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been a political problem because of potential effects on the economy. Earlier this month, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and former Vice President Al Gore for their work in calling attention to global warming.
“It turns out that global warming critics were right when they said that global climate models did not do a good job at predicting climate change,” Robock said. “But what has been wrong recently is that the climate is changing even faster than the models said. In fact, Arctic sea ice is melting much faster than any models predicted, and sea level is rising much faster than IPCC previously predicted.”
Will future repeat recent past?
According to the new study, carbon released from burning fossil fuel and making cement rose from 7.0 billion metric tons per year in 2000 to 8.4 billion metric tons in 2006. A metric ton is 2,205 pounds.
The growth rate increased from 1.3 percent per year in 1990-1999 to 3.3 percent per year in 2000-2006, the researchers added.
Trenberth noted that carbon dioxide is not the whole story — methane emissions have declined, so total greenhouse gases are not increasing as much as carbon dioxide alone. Also, he added, other pollution plays a role by cooling.
There are changes from year to year in the fraction of the atmosphere made up of carbon dioxide and the question is whether this increase is transient or will be sustained, he said.
“The theory suggests increases in (the atmospheric fraction), as is claimed here, but the evidence is not strong,” Trenberth said.
The paper looks at a rather short time to measure a trend, Robock added, “but the results they get certainly look reasonable, and much of the paper is looking at much longer trends.”
The research was supported by Australian, European and other international agencies.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
"Where there is sacrifice there is someone collecting the sacrificial offerings."-- Ayn Rand
"Some of my friends sit around every evening and they worry about the times ahead,
But everybody else is overwhelmed by indifference and the promise of an early bed..."-- Elvis Costello
"Some of my friends sit around every evening and they worry about the times ahead,
But everybody else is overwhelmed by indifference and the promise of an early bed..."-- Elvis Costello
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Comments
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death is coming, try to find God!i'm the meat, yer not...signed Capt Asshat0
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this is not at all surprising, and anyone who thinks all this global warming stuff is a 'myth' is simply delusional. it is currently 74 degrees F....in NYC......on october 23. wtf?! it seems we keep getting warmer, and longer....and no, it is NOT a good thing. if this is happening here, i don't even want to know how bad it is at polar ice caps and all that it means for the future. it is beyond sad that so much of this issue is all man-made, and yet it seems we do next to nothing to combat it. i mean really, just think...we are basically at war over/about oil.....we are killing our planet by disrupting it's climate so horribly with fossil fuels - aka oil....so yes, when WILL we learn to end this dependence on this resource? seriously...what more do we need to KNOW we must stop relying on oil for our energy needs? yikes...if we poured all the BILLIONS of dollars spent on this ridiculous war into R&D for alternative fuel sources, well we'd be living with a whole new, effective, sustainable, clean-usage energy source....and have a lot more people on the planet not devastated or lost to war over this issue.Stay with me...
Let's just breathe...
I am myself like you somehow0 -
decides2dream wrote:this is not at all surprising, and anyone who thinks all this global warming stuff is a 'myth' is simply delusional. it is currently 74 degrees F....in NYC......on october 23. wtf?! it seems we keep getting warmer, and longer....and no, it is NOT a good thing. if this is happening here, i don't even want to know how bad it is at polar ice caps and all that it means for the future. it is beyond sad that so much of this issue is all man-made, and yet it seems we do next to nothing to combat it. i mean really, just think...we are basically at war over/about oil.....we are killing our planet by disrupting it's climate so horribly with fossil fuels - aka oil....so yes, when WILL we learn to end this dependence on this resource? seriously...what more do we need to KNOW we must stop relying on oil for our energy needs? yikes...if we poured all the BILLIONS of dollars spent on this ridiculous war into R&D for alternative fuel sources, well we'd be living with a whole new, effective, sustainable, clean-usage energy source....and have a lot more people on the planet not devastated or lost to war over this issue.
I can still understand some of the resistance to believing how much of it is caused by man and how much is caused buy just natural cycles for the earth, but what I can't comprehend are the people who dispute that it's even happening...
I was listening to a story on the news yesterday about the drought in Georgia, and the Governor's response to cities growing faster then can be sustained, called the drought one of "historic proportions"...
For the past few years, we have seen more "storms of the century", "floods of the century", "droughts of historic proportions" then I can ever remember.My whole life
was like a picture
of a sunny day
“We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
― Abraham Lincoln0 -
decides2dream wrote:this is not at all surprising, and anyone who thinks all this global warming stuff is a 'myth' is simply delusional. it is currently 74 degrees F....in NYC......on october 23. wtf?! it seems we keep getting warmer, and longer....and no, it is NOT a good thing. if this is happening here, i don't even want to know how bad it is at polar ice caps and all that it means for the future. it is beyond sad that so much of this issue is all man-made, and yet it seems we do next to nothing to combat it. i mean really, just think...we are basically at war over/about oil.....we are killing our planet by disrupting it's climate so horribly with fossil fuels - aka oil....so yes, when WILL we learn to end this dependence on this resource? seriously...what more do we need to KNOW we must stop relying on oil for our energy needs? yikes...if we poured all the BILLIONS of dollars spent on this ridiculous war into R&D for alternative fuel sources, well we'd be living with a whole new, effective, sustainable, clean-usage energy source....and have a lot more people on the planet not devastated or lost to war over this issue.
post of the day0 -
I guess I'm still one of the few that don't believe in the Global Warming stuff..
I believe it is one of the many upon many cycles earth has been though and will go through over it's 5 billion year existenceMaster of Zen0 -
bubbamackdaddy69 wrote:I guess I'm still one of the few that don't believe in the Global Warming stuff..
I believe it is one of the many upon many cycles earth has been though and will go through over it's 5 billion year existence
Even if it is just a naturally occuring cycle we still need to address the issue. Millions of people will be affected by a global climate shift and simply burying our heads in the sand and stating that's it's just Mother Nature will not suffice."When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul0 -
blackredyellow wrote:For the past few years, we have seen more "storms of the century", "floods of the century", "droughts of historic proportions" then I can ever remember.
well your memory doesnt go back very far. none of ours do. similar things have been happening for billions of years.
I'm much rather see people focusing on protecting the earth, conservering energy, innovating better environmental friendly products, then continuing on with this global warming nonsense.0 -
decides2dream wrote:this is not at all surprising, and anyone who thinks all this global warming stuff is a 'myth' is simply delusional. it is currently 74 degrees F....in NYC......on october 23. wtf?! it seems we keep getting warmer, and longer....and no, it is NOT a good thing. if this is happening here, i don't even want to know how bad it is at polar ice caps and all that it means for the future. it is beyond sad that so much of this issue is all man-made, and yet it seems we do next to nothing to combat it. i mean really, just think...we are basically at war over/about oil.....we are killing our planet by disrupting it's climate so horribly with fossil fuels - aka oil....so yes, when WILL we learn to end this dependence on this resource? seriously...what more do we need to KNOW we must stop relying on oil for our energy needs? yikes...if we poured all the BILLIONS of dollars spent on this ridiculous war into R&D for alternative fuel sources, well we'd be living with a whole new, effective, sustainable, clean-usage energy source....and have a lot more people on the planet not devastated or lost to war over this issue.
agreed it's weird i was planning on racking leaves over the weekend instead i wen't to the beach and took a swimm how f'ed up is that on october 21st,people better wake up fast and take positive action .....i need to get myself more educated on this issue .....jesus greets me looks just like me ....0 -
mammasan wrote:Even if it is just a naturally occuring cycle we still need to address the issue. Millions of people will be affected by a global climate shift and simply burying our heads in the sand and stating that's it's just Mother Nature will not suffice.
Oh I agree that we need to be cleaner,less waste etc.. I just don't buy into the whole media propaganda, and what I mean about this is that you never hear about the scientists or whoever that don't buy into but just the opposite so anybody without doing research can buy into that.Just have to make an informed decision.
But yes I agree...Global warming or no Global warming...we need to stop polluting, recycle, etc...Master of Zen0 -
bubbamackdaddy69 wrote:I guess I'm still one of the few that don't believe in the Global Warming stuff..
I believe it is one of the many upon many cycles earth has been though and will go through over it's 5 billion year existence
I totally agree. talking and crying about global warming only leads to worthless political arguments.
if we all did our part in trying to protect and conserve our earth, we would be much better off. earth itself is a limited resource. we should try to protect it.0 -
jlew24asu wrote:well your memory doesnt go back very far. none of ours do. similar things have been happening for billions of years.
I'm much rather see people focusing on protecting the earth, conservering energy, innovating better environmental friendly products, then continuing on with this global warming nonsense.
We think alike....LOLMaster of Zen0 -
Due to extensive population densities, the extremes in weather are far more consequential to mankind now than at any moment in history.Progress is not made by everyone joining some new fad,
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
(\__/)
( o.O)
(")_(")0 -
bubbamackdaddy69 wrote:I guess I'm still one of the few that don't believe in the Global Warming stuff..
I believe it is one of the many upon many cycles earth has been though and will go through over it's 5 billion year existence
even if it is a *cycle*...that means you DO believe it is happening, just that you debate or completely disagree that humanity plays any role in it. i agree to a certain extent, it may well be an earth cycle, but.......BUT....i DO believe we are contributing to it greatly, and perhaps our small role in that contribution may have disastrous effects. perhpas not for the world, but for human life, etc. it could well be a 'natural and healthy' cycle for the earth, but OUR contribution to it may exascerbate the isue to disastrous effect. who knows.
bottomline, imho.....our reliance on fossil fuels IS disastrous to us, right NOW...with or without the global warming issue, so yes...i firmly believe we need to find alternative fuel sources NOW. it is win-win for life and the planet.Stay with me...
Let's just breathe...
I am myself like you somehow0 -
I personally don't believe that the Global Climate change is completely man made. There is edivence to prove that the arth has gone through these cycles about every 11,000 years or so. I do think that we have caused significant damage to our environment and this may be affecting the cycle.
As I stated before even if the cycle is nothing more that a natural climate cycle we need to strat preparing for the inevitable changes that are going to occur."When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." - Ron Paul0 -
decides2dream wrote:
bottomline, imho.....our reliance on fossil fuels IS disastrous to us, right NOW...with or without the global warming issue, so yes...i firmly believe we need to find alternative fuel sources NOW. it is win-win for life and the planet.
no one is debating this.0 -
mammasan wrote:I personally don't believe that the Global Climate change is completely man made. There is edivence to prove that the arth has gone through these cycles about every 11,000 years or so. I do think that we have caused significant damage to our environment and this may be affecting the cycle.
As I stated before even if the cycle is nothing more that a natural climate cycle we need to strat preparing for the inevitable changes that are going to occur.
The earth has gone through these cycles thats what i always thought to until i saw how much we have speeded the process up and made it worse than the natrual cycle.
At jlew: i agree we all need to do our bit as individuals but i think it's the corps who are polluting the worst, and i fear if they don't change there habits the small contribubtions we make individually will not be enough.Keep on rockin in the free world!!!!
The economy has polarized to the point where the wealthiest 10% now own 85% of the nation’s wealth. Never before have the bottom 90% been so highly indebted, so dependent on the wealthy.0
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