The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.
Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.
Tough crowd here sometimes, lol
Anyone that opposes trump is ok in my book.
Yes!
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.
Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.
continues.....
Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.
I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact.
Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.
Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation?
No, but I will be at both Philly shows.
Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.
Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.
Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally. Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing. But they won't. They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden.
Source? For the censorship and 200,000+ claims.
In a letter to Congress, Zuckerberg admitted to censoring at the request of Harris/Biden.
Excerpt from DHS report:
“As of May 2024, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had not served a Notice to Appear (NTA) or scheduled a court date for more than 291,000 unaccompanied migrant children (UCs). In each ICE location we visited, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) could not serve NTAs on all UCs. At one location we visited, 34,823 (84 percent) of 41,638 UCs in the local area had not been served NTAs to initiate immigration proceedings…Without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”
Seems Mark Fuckerberg did the censoring. Did his letter mention any threats or coercion for failure to comply? Mark could have been a man like Elongitaint and told Brandon to fuck off, yes?
I wonder if you understand how things work? Based on your disingenuous immigration example, I’m assuming not.
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.
Yeah it's a different landscape since Dobbs for sure.
Should be noted that Silver's model is the outlier compared to the others, which more reflect 538's estimates. I've also seen that Silver is including more republican leading pollsters in PA that do not even make the cut for 538's rankings.
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.
Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most prominent Republicans in the last half-century, will be crossing party lines this election and voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney said Friday, who contended her father sees former President Donald Trump as a "grave a threat to our democracy."
The former House member who represented Wyoming told "The Atlantic" reporter Mark Leibovich during an interview at the Texas Tribute Festival that her father believes this is a serious moment in history.
Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most prominent Republicans in the last half-century, will be crossing party lines this election and voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney said Friday, who contended her father sees former President Donald Trump as a "grave a threat to our democracy."
The former House member who represented Wyoming told "The Atlantic" reporter Mark Leibovich during an interview at the Texas Tribute Festival that her father believes this is a serious moment in history.
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.
I think it's a series of puts and takes. Who knows where it lands. All you can control is ensuring your base and soft voters turnout.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most prominent Republicans in the last half-century, will be crossing party lines this election and voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney said Friday, who contended her father sees former President Donald Trump as a "grave a threat to our democracy."
The former House member who represented Wyoming told "The Atlantic" reporter Mark Leibovich during an interview at the Texas Tribute Festival that her father believes this is a serious moment in history.
That heart transplant must've worked!
Haha, good one! At the very least , it appears to have improved the blood flow to his brain.
Yet another step in the right direction.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
I hope Kamala straight up asks POOTWH, yo, “how’s it feel to have a cap in yo ass, homey?” Feelin’ street cred? Got your homies, the bikers? Yo! Are your Boyz in da house? Point ‘em out, yo!
Watch POOTWH crumble. C-r-u-m-b-l-e. It’d be worth it. For democracy.
She needs to hammer him on the border bill he killed and the cemetery fiasco and this administration accomplishments and point out how his administration added 7 trillion to the deficit
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.
I think it's a series of puts and takes. Who knows where it lands. All you can control is ensuring your base and soft voters turnout.
It’s insane how close this election is, given that Mr red hat sounds 100% like he is slipping and losing his cognitive abilities, is such an outrageous bully,yet they stick with him. The only thing the gop has given America the last ten years is an outrageously conservative court, massive restrictions on women’s rights, and a tax cut for the wealthy.
Not sure why any independent or undecided in a million years would look at that record and be inclined to even consider voting GOP. Yet the state polls are 50/50.
Assuming the GOP wins GA NC AZ, and the Dems win WI NV and let’s say MI…it comes down to PA which 538 has as 50/50. With Shapiro and two dem senators in PA this is perplexing. The Dems MUST win either PA or MI, don’t see any other realistic path. Unreal.
Whats impressive about Harris campaign is they are going to exurban and rural regions to campaign. This is the best democratic team since Obama. Let’s hope it’s enough.
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.
I think it's a series of puts and takes. Who knows where it lands. All you can control is ensuring your base and soft voters turnout.
It’s insane how close this election is, given that Mr red hat sounds 100% like he is slipping and losing his cognitive abilities, is such an outrageous bully,yet they stick with him. The only thing the gop has given America the last ten years is an outrageously conservative court, massive restrictions on women’s rights, and a tax cut for the wealthy.
Not sure why any independent or undecided in a million years would look at that record and be inclined to even consider voting GOP. Yet the state polls are 50/50.
Assuming the GOP wins GA NC AZ, and the Dems win WI NV and let’s say MI…it comes down to PA which 538 has as 50/50. With Shapiro and two dem senators in PA this is perplexing. The Dems MUST win either PA or MI, don’t see any other realistic path. Unreal.
Whats impressive about Harris campaign is they are going to exurban and rural regions to campaign. This is the best democratic team since Obama. Let’s hope it’s enough.
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.
Yeah it's a different landscape since Dobbs for sure.
Should be noted that Silver's model is the outlier compared to the others, which more reflect 538's estimates. I've also seen that Silver is including more republican leading pollsters in PA that do not even make the cut for 538's rankings.
The pessimist would point out that Silver was also the outlier in 2016
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?
The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?
The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?
Pay no attention to the polls. The only poll that matters is on election day.
Its consistant with every other poll. Every other poll has them neck and neck once you factor in the MOE and its been this way for the month.
The best takeaway from the NYT poll, which is one of the best if not THE best pollster, is that there are a lot of voters who could be persuadable to Harris. Again. The rule of thumb is voters don't start paying close attention until after labor day. We are one week out and the first debate is this week. Someone may start pulling away after that.
I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?
The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?
Pay no attention to the polls. The only poll that matters is on election day.
It's not the polling numbers that bother me so much as it is the polls themselves, the fact that they do these things and we are supposed to believe them and it's all a crock of shit anyway.
Its consistant with every other poll. Every other poll has them neck and neck once you factor in the MOE and its been this way for the month.
The best takeaway from the NYT poll, which is one of the best if not THE best pollster, is that there are a lot of voters who could be persuadable to Harris. Again. The rule of thumb is voters don't start paying close attention until after labor day. We are one week out and the first debate is this week. Someone may start pulling away after that.
As I said above, Tim. Plus, what I want to know is, how is it even remotely possible that this is a race? How is it even remotely possible that a man who has lost his mind, and that everyone knows- if not cognitively, at least deep down inside- is an idiot, a liar, a fool, how is it that this man is even a contender in this race? I cannot fathom that as a possibility.
PS, I do not know what MOE is. Larry and Curly's buddy?
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
I really wonder sometimes what's up with the NY Times. They posted an article today with the headline, "Trump and Harris Neck and Neck after Summer Upheaval Times/Siena Poll Finds". All the other polls show Harris leading. I'm really getting sick to death of all these media sources posting shit like it's God's truth and yet they so often contradict each other. And WTF, is NY Times backing Trump these days?
The other thing that bugs me even more is that I still read about how "close" this race is. Is that even possibly true and if so, how in the hell can that be? In Trump's latest rallys, he's showing himself to being on the extreme of mentally incompetent. Fans of his are walking out of his rallys. And yet again and again these various new sources report that the race is close. Am I hallucinating this shit? How is any of this even possible?
Pay no attention to the polls. The only poll that matters is on election day.
It's not the polling numbers that bother me so much as it is the polls themselves, the fact that they do these things and we are supposed to believe them and it's all a crock of shit anyway.
Its consistant with every other poll. Every other poll has them neck and neck once you factor in the MOE and its been this way for the month.
The best takeaway from the NYT poll, which is one of the best if not THE best pollster, is that there are a lot of voters who could be persuadable to Harris. Again. The rule of thumb is voters don't start paying close attention until after labor day. We are one week out and the first debate is this week. Someone may start pulling away after that.
As I said above, Tim. Plus, what I want to know is, how is it even remotely possible that this is a race? How is it even remotely possible that a man who has lost his mind, and that everyone knows- if not cognitively, at least deep down inside- is an idiot, a liar, a fool, how is it that this man is even a contender in this race? I cannot fathom that as a possibility.
PS, I do not know what MOE is. Larry and Curly's buddy?
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Comments
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
Yes!
I wonder if you understand how things work? Based on your disingenuous immigration example, I’m assuming not.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Should be noted that Silver's model is the outlier compared to the others, which more reflect 538's estimates. I've also seen that Silver is including more republican leading pollsters in PA that do not even make the cut for 538's rankings.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/former-republican-vice-president-dick-cheney-vote-harris/story?id=113467122
Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most prominent Republicans in the last half-century, will be crossing party lines this election and voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney said Friday, who contended her father sees former President Donald Trump as a "grave a threat to our democracy."
The former House member who represented Wyoming told "The Atlantic" reporter Mark Leibovich during an interview at the Texas Tribute Festival that her father believes this is a serious moment in history.
That heart transplant must've worked!
Yep.
There is literally only one thing that matters in this election. They are on the right side of history in this regard.
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https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/video/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction-lcl-digvid
and NEW United States President, KAMALAAAAAAA.....HARRRRR-ISSSSSSS
www.headstonesband.com
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Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Watch POOTWH crumble. C-r-u-m-b-l-e. It’d be worth it. For democracy.
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Not sure why any independent or undecided in a million years would look at that record and be inclined to even consider voting GOP. Yet the state polls are 50/50.
Assuming the GOP wins GA NC AZ, and the Dems win WI NV and let’s say MI…it comes down to PA which 538 has as 50/50. With Shapiro and two dem senators in PA this is perplexing. The Dems MUST win either PA or MI, don’t see any other realistic path. Unreal.
Whats impressive about Harris campaign is they are going to exurban and rural regions to campaign. This is the best democratic team since Obama. Let’s hope it’s enough.
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Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
The best takeaway from the NYT poll, which is one of the best if not THE best pollster, is that there are a lot of voters who could be persuadable to Harris. Again. The rule of thumb is voters don't start paying close attention until after labor day. We are one week out and the first debate is this week. Someone may start pulling away after that.
margin of error
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14