** KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT -PART DEUX **

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Comments

  • gimmesometruth27gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 23,303
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,794
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    njhaley1 said:
    mickeyrat said:

    Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president

    It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
    Get more news
    on






    Sept. 4, 2024, 6:17 PM EDT
    By Kelly O'Donnell, Gabe Gutierrez and Megan Lebowitz

    WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.

    Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.


    continues.....


    Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.

    I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact. 


    Liz Cheney
    ·
    Aug 11, 2020
    Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.
    Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation? 
    No, but I will be at both Philly shows.
    Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.
    Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.
    Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally.  Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing.  But they won't.  They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden. 
    Yeah! Maybe they'll talk about how odd it is for the owner of the largest social media app to openly endorse Trump, while promoting the same Russian disinformation service that was just charged with pushing disinformation with the intent to sway the election via prominent maga social influencers....perhaps they will talk about how the crime rates in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore have decreased since surging during the final year of the Trump administration. Perhaps they will talk about the actual number of children unaccounted for, which is significantly less than the republican talking point number you cited and has been a problem since the second year of the Trump administration. Yeah, perhaps they will mention all of this at a fucking rock and roll concert, weirdo. 

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/dhs-watchdog-warns-urgent-issue-after-immigration-officials/story?id=112964072

    https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/kevin-bethel-philadelphia-crime-rate-kensington/

    https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/07/03/nyc-crime-rate-down-2-in-2024-as-murders-shootings-drop-nypd/

    https://www.baltimorepolice.org/news/bpd-sees-dramatic-decrease-multiple-crime-categories-april-2024



    Since Russia is a country under US sanctions, it would be a crime for those podcasters to knowingly receive compensation from these RT cutouts.  I'd love to see them perp walked.  
    especially tim pool. 
    seriously though. he HAD to have known russia was involved.
    Of course he did.  Releasing podcasts saying:

    1. The war started after the pipeline was bombed (which is total bullshit and false)
    2. Ukraine is the enemy of the US

    These are talking points straight from RT and Tass.  But of course the right wing is so fucking stupid, they believe it.  

    I hope the right wingers out here saw this.  You're fucking stupid.  
    Yeah I saw the "Ukraine is the enemy" video today. Just awful. 

    Guarantee you Tucker is bought by them as well. Did you see he had a Nazi on his show saying Churchill was the real enemy of ww2? 

    Maga is so fucking gullible. Sad state of affairs. 
    Tucker gushing about the price of groceries while
    shopping in Russia was bad enough, then saying he’s been “radicalized” by the Biden admin. They won’t recognize it aa propaganda, though. They just say it’s true. 
    Did you guys ever see the Daily Show after Tucker's trip to Russia?  Hilarious.  Stewart shreds him.  Check it out if you haven't.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM2h3KnWAWY
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,645
    mickeyrat said:
    LOL... That's hilarious. Pool is shitting himself 
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 39,292
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    njhaley1 said:
    mickeyrat said:

    Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president

    It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
    Get more news
    on






    Sept. 4, 2024, 6:17 PM EDT
    By Kelly O'Donnell, Gabe Gutierrez and Megan Lebowitz

    WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.

    Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.


    continues.....


    Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.

    I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact. 


    Liz Cheney
    ·
    Aug 11, 2020
    Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.
    Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation? 
    No, but I will be at both Philly shows.
    Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.
    Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.
    Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally.  Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing.  But they won't.  They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden. 
    Yeah! Maybe they'll talk about how odd it is for the owner of the largest social media app to openly endorse Trump, while promoting the same Russian disinformation service that was just charged with pushing disinformation with the intent to sway the election via prominent maga social influencers....perhaps they will talk about how the crime rates in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore have decreased since surging during the final year of the Trump administration. Perhaps they will talk about the actual number of children unaccounted for, which is significantly less than the republican talking point number you cited and has been a problem since the second year of the Trump administration. Yeah, perhaps they will mention all of this at a fucking rock and roll concert, weirdo. 

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/dhs-watchdog-warns-urgent-issue-after-immigration-officials/story?id=112964072

    https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/kevin-bethel-philadelphia-crime-rate-kensington/

    https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/07/03/nyc-crime-rate-down-2-in-2024-as-murders-shootings-drop-nypd/

    https://www.baltimorepolice.org/news/bpd-sees-dramatic-decrease-multiple-crime-categories-april-2024



    POOTWH naming Elongitaint a special policy advisor in his administration should give everyone pause. Unless you’re an evenbro, I suppose.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 39,292
    mickeyrat said:
    Anyone want to guess where Roger Dodger Stoned’s hand might be? NTTIAWWT.


    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 39,292

    Fucker Carlson is kompromatted. You know there are tapes from his visit to Moscow. Just like POOTWH. Putin on the ritz is no dummy.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 39,185
    this guy popped up on my threads feed. one to follow and watch....

    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,771
    Uh oh. Bad news for the Tik Tok CEO, right? Should be in handcuffs by Monday?

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/business/chase-tiktok-trend/index.html
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 39,185
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 39,185
    gift article.....


     Kamala Harris ran her office like a prosecutor. Not everyone liked that.
    By Dan Diamond and Cleve R. Wootson Jr.
    September 06, 2024 at 6:00 ET
    On the day after President Joe Biden decided to end his reelection bid in July, more than 300 former staffers for Vice President Kamala Harris publicly endorsed her candidacy — a flurry of alumni support with little precedent in this already unusual campaign.
    “We were able to witness her leadership firsthand,” the former staffers wrote in a letter, attesting to Harris’s behavior on and off camera. “She is an extraordinary leader of great character.”
    The rapidly assembled letter was a spontaneous outpouring of affection for Harris, said Rachel Palermo, who worked for Harris for three years in the vice president’s office and coordinated the effort.
    But in interviews, former staff who signed the letter acknowledged it also addressed one of Harris’s perceived weaknesses as a candidate and elected official: her demanding management style. People who have worked for Harris say her interactions with staff can resemble a prosecutor prying details from a witness, asking pointed questions about everything from her schedule to policy briefings. And her cautious approach to big decisions has frustrated deputies rather than inspire them.

    continues.....

    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 39,185
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Sorry. The world doesn't work the way you tell it to.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,645
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    www.myspace.com
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    edited September 6
    Interested in seeing what things look like a week or two from now after the debate. Hasn't been much movement lately. 




    Post edited by The Juggler on
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,645
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Yeah and it seems like the other models are in line with 538 as well---the Hill, Economist, etc....

    It's a coinflip no matter what though. 


    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,794
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Who cares.. it's just probability modeling.  I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation.  They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection.  That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me.  I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout.  It's all about that. 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 39,292
    mrussel1 said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Who cares.. it's just probability modeling.  I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation.  They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection.  That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me.  I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout.  It's all about that. 
    And that turnout is going to be suppressed.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,794
    mrussel1 said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Who cares.. it's just probability modeling.  I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation.  They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection.  That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me.  I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout.  It's all about that. 
    And that turnout is going to be suppressed.
    I certainly worry about that in GA.  
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 39,292
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Who cares.. it's just probability modeling.  I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation.  They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection.  That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me.  I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout.  It's all about that. 
    And that turnout is going to be suppressed.
    I certainly worry about that in GA.  
    Not just in Georgia. It’s insidious in all repub run states. It’s not just about winning the electoral college but also not having Kamala win by such a margin that any dispute on its face is a joke or POOTWH winning the electoral vote but with a slimmer loss in the popular vote than 2016 to claim “mandate.”

    I’m on record that POOTWH will be reelected as vote suppression is one small cog in the authoritarian take over machine.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,645
    There's a trump boat parade in my hood tomorrow. AG Todd Rokita is supposed to show up....and there will be voter registration tables so that the dems don't steal this election.

    Hilarious that in Red Meat, Indiana they think they need more registered voters
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,771
    Blue line go down, Nate criticism go up lol
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,645
    pjl44 said:
    Blue line go down, Nate criticism go up lol
    Well... He sold his model to CBS. Now he's got a different competing model. It does seem a bit disingenuous 
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,771
    pjl44 said:
    Blue line go down, Nate criticism go up lol
    Well... He sold his model to CBS. Now he's got a different competing model. It does seem a bit disingenuous 
    He did not sell his political model. He kept the model and sold the branding. And I believe ABC not CBS.
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,771

  • Philly NJPhilly NJ Posts: 245
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    njhaley1 said:
    mickeyrat said:

    Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president

    It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
    Get more news
    on






    Sept. 4, 2024, 6:17 PM EDT
    By Kelly O'Donnell, Gabe Gutierrez and Megan Lebowitz

    WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.

    Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.


    continues.....


    Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.

    I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact. 


    Liz Cheney
    ·
    Aug 11, 2020
    Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.
    Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation? 
    No, but I will be at both Philly shows.
    Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.
    Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.
    Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally.  Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing.  But they won't.  They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden. 
    Source? For the censorship and 200,000+ claims.
    In a letter to Congress, Zuckerberg admitted to censoring at the request of Harris/Biden. 

    Excerpt from DHS report:

    “As of May 2024, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had not served a Notice to Appear (NTA) or scheduled a court date for more than 291,000 unaccompanied migrant children (UCs). In each ICE location we visited, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) could not serve NTAs on all UCs. At one location we visited, 34,823 (84 percent) of 41,638 UCs in the local area had not been served NTAs to initiate immigration proceedings…Without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”

  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    edited September 6
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Philly NJ said:
    njhaley1 said:
    mickeyrat said:

    Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president

    It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
    Get more news
    on






    Sept. 4, 2024, 6:17 PM EDT
    By Kelly O'Donnell, Gabe Gutierrez and Megan Lebowitz

    WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.

    Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.


    continues.....


    Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.

    I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact. 


    Liz Cheney
    ·
    Aug 11, 2020
    Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.
    Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation? 
    No, but I will be at both Philly shows.
    Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.
    Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.
    Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally.  Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing.  But they won't.  They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden. 
    Source? For the censorship and 200,000+ claims.
    In a letter to Congress, Zuckerberg admitted to censoring at the request of Harris/Biden. 

    Excerpt from DHS report:

    “As of May 2024, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had not served a Notice to Appear (NTA) or scheduled a court date for more than 291,000 unaccompanied migrant children (UCs). In each ICE location we visited, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) could not serve NTAs on all UCs. At one location we visited, 34,823 (84 percent) of 41,638 UCs in the local area had not been served NTAs to initiate immigration proceedings…Without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”

    Why are you conveniently leaving out the fact that this started during the Trump administration? It's almost as if you are making a disingenuous argument. 

    Why do you think Donald Trump killed the bipartisan border bill?

     https://abcnews.go.com/US/dhs-watchdog-warns-urgent-issue-after-immigration-officials/story?id=112964072


    DHS watchdog warns of 'urgent issue' after immigration officials allegedly lose track of unaccompanied children

    The cases in question spanned both the Trump and Biden administrations.


    DHS watchdog warns of 'urgent issue' regarding unaccompanied children

    DHS watchdog warns of 'urgent issue' regarding unaccompanied children

    Homeland Security's internal watchdog says it has uncovered an "urgent issue" with how immigration off...Show More

    The Department of Homeland Security's internal watchdog says it has uncovered an "urgent issue" with how immigration officials handle cases involving unaccompanied migrant children, warning in a new report that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has been unable to keep track of all unaccompanied minors released from government custody.

    The interim report, sent to Congress on Tuesday and obtained by ABC News, said that -- in the past five years -- more than 32,000 unaccompanied migrant children failed to appear for their immigration court hearings, and ICE was "not able to account" for all of their locations.

    By law, the Department of Health and Human Services is responsible for the care of unaccompanied migrant children, so after they are initially taken into custody by U.S. authorities, it is ICE's role "to ensure [their] timely and safe transfer" to HHS, which then often places them in shelters or qualified sponsors' homes.

    "Without an ability to monitor the location and status of [unaccompanied migrant children], ICE has no assurance [they] are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor," Inspector General Joseph Cuffari wrote in his interim report.

    He urged ICE to "take immediate action to ensure the safety of [unaccompanied children] residing in the United States."

    Recent Stories from ABC News

    Cuffari's report is part of a broader audit of ICE's ability to track unaccompanied migrant children who have been released or transferred from U.S. custody after entering the country.

    According to the interim report, from 2019 to 2023 -- a period spanning both the Trump and Biden administrations -- immigration officials transferred more than 448,000 unaccompanied migrant children from ICE custody to HHS.


    Immigrants walk towards a U.S. Border Patrol checkpoint after crossing the U.S.-Mexico border on Sep...Show more
    John Moore/Getty Images, FILE

    After interviewing more than 100 officials and visiting ten ICE field offices, the inspector general found that immigration officials "cannot always monitor the location and status of unaccompanied migrant children who are released ... and [then] did not appear as scheduled in immigration court."

    When unaccompanied migrant children do not show up to court, federal judges will often issue several continuances -- to postpone the hearings for months -- until they are left with no choice but to issue deportation orders.

    In a statement Tuesday afternoon, ICE said it "is committed to the protection and well-being of children and works closely with [HHS] and other federal partners to fulfill its obligations under law."

    Earlier this year, ABC News attended several hearings at immigration court in Hyattsville, Maryland, where federal judges were forced to issue removal orders for unaccompanied migrant children who did not appear for their scheduled hearings. And for those who do appear, only 56% are represented by counsel, according to the Department of Justice.

    ABC News previously reported that tens of thousands of unaccompanied young migrants are representing themselves before federal immigration judges due to a litany of issues crippling the court system.

    In his interim report, Cuffari said that as of May 2024, more than 291,000 unaccompanied children had not been placed into removal proceedings because ICE had not served them notices to appear or scheduled a court date for them. Accordingly, the number of unaccompanied children who failed to appear for their court dates "may have been much larger" than 32,000 had ICE issued notices or scheduled court dates for those 291,000 children.

    "Immigration court hearings are often ICE's only opportunity to observe and screen [children] for trafficking indicators or other safety concerns," the interim report said. So, according to the report, when ICE fails to service notices to appear, or schedule court dates, that "reduces opportunities to verify their safety."

    The report cited a number of key challenges for ICE, noting that, among other issues, "ICE still lacks adequate staffing, which can limit officers' time and ability to check the location or immigration case status of migrants."

    Recent Stories from ABC News
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    Read More

    "Resource constraints also impact [their] ability to issue [notices] to all [unaccompanied children] after their release from HHS' custody," the report said.

    The report also said that ICE is burdened by "manual, multi-step processes to share information on [children] who do not appear in court."

    The watchdog suggested that Homeland Security officials "develop and implement an automated system to document court appearances and maintain address information of unaccompanied migrant children."

    Agency officials agreed with the watchdog's recommendation to incorporate an automated tracking mechanism, according to a brief response included with the 18-page interim report. But they also suggested that the assessments in the watchdog's interim report failed to articulate some structural challenges that complicate their ability to track migrant children and "therefore lead to misunderstandings about the process."

    In its statement, ICE said the interim report's findings may be "misleading and may be misconstrued because they fail to acknowledge key facts," including that ICE does not issue any notices to appear for unaccompanied children "until after they have been placed with sponsors who have been vetted by HHS."

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,794
    pjl44 said:
    Blue line go down, Nate criticism go up lol
    Who fucking cares.  Jerk off to the daily polls and forecast all you want.  
  • Johnny AbruzzoJohnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 11,714
    I wonder if we lost a couple trolls with that Russia stuff going down. I mean, I never see these people talking about Pearl Jam or sports or whatever.
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