Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues
Comments
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The people arguing that 4 x GA is evidence that the odds aren’t fair are the same people ignoring people going 0 for 4. There is going to be variation across all possible outcomes. It’s moot to keep arguing this.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
I'm not ignoring people going 0/4, since my wife and I both did. I understand how independent events work. It's just we've seen ALOT of extreme/outlier outcomes in this drawmookieblalock said:
The people arguing that 4 x GA is evidence that the odds aren’t fair are the same people ignoring people going 0 for 4. There is going to be variation across all possible outcomes. It’s moot to keep arguing this.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
Post edited by NewfieintheUSA on0 -
You do understand the difference between 4-4 and 0-4? Getting GA isn't a 50/50 chancemookieblalock said:
The people arguing that 4 x GA is evidence that the odds aren’t fair are the same people ignoring people going 0 for 4. There is going to be variation across all possible outcomes. It’s moot to keep arguing this.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
And thats not a fair comparison too since you need to take into account P1 and P2 seating. If someone went 0/4 with all the boxes checked and someone hit 4/4 GA on Philly both nights and Fenway as we know they have the odds of hitting those GA's vs striking out are not even in the same ballpark (see what I did there)NewfieintheUSA said:
I'm not ignoring people going 0/4, since my wife and I both did. I'm understand how independent events work. It's just we've seen ALOT of extreme/outlier outcomes in this drawmookieblalock said:
The people arguing that 4 x GA is evidence that the odds aren’t fair are the same people ignoring people going 0 for 4. There is going to be variation across all possible outcomes. It’s moot to keep arguing this.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
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exactlySHZA said:
You do understand the difference between 4-4 and 0-4? Getting GA isn't a 50/50 chancemookieblalock said:
The people arguing that 4 x GA is evidence that the odds aren’t fair are the same people ignoring people going 0 for 4. There is going to be variation across all possible outcomes. It’s moot to keep arguing this.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
I don't know what was wrong with the old system. All #1 picks before any #2, etc.mcgruff10 said:I saw this on facebook but do agree with these ideas moving forward:
For 10c lottery, every city with multiple shows should be that nobody gets both shows until everyone requesting gets at least one.
Don't start the verified fan registration until 10c lottery is complete. That leaves a better chance (less people registered) for the ones that missed out in the 10c draw.
For example: now I won't need to buy in the verified fan sale since I got 10c tickets but someone who missed out on 10c tickets could get waitlisted.
Only way to improve that would be if you don't win your #1, then your #2 then becomes a #1 pick.
That would almost guarantee at least 1 or 2 wins.
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I think the TM system might have basic logic. U2 uses the same system but they don't have seniority (well they sort of do, if you were a member before the tour announcement your order is prioritized over members who signed up after the announcement). They don't have seats by seniority, and you could only get tickets for 1 sphere show, so no 2nd, 3rd priorities to mess up. Once you got tickets, you're done.mace1229 said:
I don't know what was wrong with the old system. All #1 picks before any #2, etc.mcgruff10 said:I saw this on facebook but do agree with these ideas moving forward:
For 10c lottery, every city with multiple shows should be that nobody gets both shows until everyone requesting gets at least one.
Don't start the verified fan registration until 10c lottery is complete. That leaves a better chance (less people registered) for the ones that missed out in the 10c draw.
For example: now I won't need to buy in the verified fan sale since I got 10c tickets but someone who missed out on 10c tickets could get waitlisted.
Only way to improve that would be if you don't win your #1, then your #2 then becomes a #1 pick.
That would almost guarantee at least 1 or 2 wins.
It went so smooth but I'm guessing due to less complexity than what 10c does. Seniority probably makes assigning the seats a bit challenging, and probably explains why it's been messed up a few times.
I think the TM system struggles with compexity.0 -
Holy shit. Let’s just keep arguing in circles.SHZA said:
You do understand the difference between 4-4 and 0-4? Getting GA isn't a 50/50 chancemookieblalock said:
The people arguing that 4 x GA is evidence that the odds aren’t fair are the same people ignoring people going 0 for 4. There is going to be variation across all possible outcomes. It’s moot to keep arguing this.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
0 -
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lotteryI gather speed from you fucking with me.0 -
DING DING DING DINGBF25394 said:
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
I just want to say that I'm enjoying your posts even more than I already would be by imagining them in Larry David's voice. I'm sticking around this thread because I feel like we're getting close to your cursing-out-Siri moment from this season's first episode and I don't want to miss it.mookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lotteryI gather speed from you fucking with me.0 -
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds heremookieblalock said:
DING DING DING DINGBF25394 said:
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
Okay. whatever you say.NewfieintheUSA said:
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds heremookieblalock said:
DING DING DING DINGBF25394 said:
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
0 -
I appreciate this postBF25394 said:
I just want to say that I'm enjoying your posts even more than I already would be by imagining them in Larry David's voice. I'm sticking around this thread because I feel like we're getting close to your cursing-out-Siri moment from this season's first episode and I don't want to miss it.mookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
PB11041 said:
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.0 -
Were equating getting 4 GA tickets to winning the state lottery now?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.0 -
Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?0
-
Wow, almost impossiblebootleg said:Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix. I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2. P2 level. With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?0 -
mookieblalock said:
Were equating getting 4 GA tickets to winning the state lottery now?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery
I am trying to understand your point. Let’s say there are 15,000 fans applying for a chance for either msg or Philly for every batch of tickets (let’s say ga or p1) and there are 1000 tickets available for each batch. there is a 7% chance of doing that whether or not we rank priority of shows. To win twice, the chance = 7%*7% (half of one percent).
to do that four times is like winning millions in the state lotto. A tiny tiny fraction of one percent. To see so many win lottery odds like that is astounding, whether or not we rank shows. Basic math is not worthless. It’s science, provable and measurable.
instead of trying to reinvent math, why don’t you try a simple odds calculation based on historical facts we know to be fairly accurate, instead of shutting down the science.?Are you seriously suggesting the PJ ticket lottery is not a lottery? Go ahead and give this go…0 -
You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch.mookieblalock said:
Okay. whatever you say.NewfieintheUSA said:
You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds heremookieblalock said:
DING DING DING DINGBF25394 said:
But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.NewfieintheUSA said:
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0
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