Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues
Comments
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Somebody can but the probability of going 5 for 5 is insane odds.PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
@lerxst1992 The odds did dramatically decrease for each show like you said when compared to the odds 10C used to show us. Those odds did not take priority into account at all and were just a total tickets / total amount of tickets people are trying to win percentage.0 -
Here is what was close to the final odds in 2020 on getting GA/reserved
Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 79/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99
Slightly different system since it allowed for priority, but could be used to get an idea at least. And based on the results we know that this years odds would likely be even less because there were people getting shut out of Cali shows when before there was almost 100% chance of getting reserved tix. There are more NE shows this yea but my guess is Baltimore,NYC,Philly GA prob still finished somewhere in the 8-10% chance of GA each range.0 -
Not all shows had P2 (ballpark shows didn't). But had same disclaimer. (And last year's tour had the same disclaimer but no P2)bootleg said:
Disclaimer is there because some shows had a P2 level. Adding the P2 level would increase your odds.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.
This weekend we rock Portland0 -
For shows with no P2, selecting GA/P1 instead of P1 increases your oddsPoncier said:
Not all shows had P2 (ballpark shows didn't). But had same disclaimer. (And last year's tour had the same disclaimer but no P2)bootleg said:
Disclaimer is there because some shows had a P2 level. Adding the P2 level would increase your odds.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.0 -
if your shows were Seattle, Wrigley, MSG, Baltimore, Philly, it would be insane to go 5 for 5 yes. I am sure some people did if surveyed, I know 1 person who got both Seattle and both Philly as the 4 shows they went for. I on the other hand had N2 in Seattle in the mix, and N1 of Philly, lost both of those and Baltimore. Shit happens.PJNB said:
Somebody can but the probability of going 5 for 5 is insane odds.PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.
@lerxst1992 The odds did dramatically decrease for each show like you said when compared to the odds 10C used to show us. Those odds did not take priority into account at all and were just a total tickets / total amount of tickets people are trying to win percentage.His eminence has yet to show.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=36520 -
And their wording suggested suggesting both increased your odds further. Not sure if in reality it did but wording vaguely alluded to that.SHZA said:
For shows with no P2, selecting GA/P1 instead of P1 increases your oddsPoncier said:
Not all shows had P2 (ballpark shows didn't). But had same disclaimer. (And last year's tour had the same disclaimer but no P2)bootleg said:
Disclaimer is there because some shows had a P2 level. Adding the P2 level would increase your odds.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.This weekend we rock Portland0 -
I find it ironic the people arguing with me are about this are the people who didn’t win ticketsSHZA said:
Agree, options = boxes. It doesn't say "selecting all options [or boxes] will increase your chances." It says "select all options below for Best Available." It then goes on to say "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances." If "multiple seat preferences" was just another way of saying "options" [or boxes], they would have said "selecting all options below will increase your chances of getting tickets." Instead, they said selecting "multiple seat preferences" will increase your chances. That means if you select a single seat preference, i.e., P1 only or P2 only, you have a lesser chance than if you select multiple preferences, i.e., P1 + P2, or GA/P1 + P2, or GA/P1. It doesn't mean you have a lesser chance unless you select the same seat preference multiple times.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.0 -
PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
Like raaaaaaaaiiiiiinnnn on your wedding day?mookieblalock said:
I find it ironic the people arguing with me are about this are the people who didn’t win ticketsSHZA said:
Agree, options = boxes. It doesn't say "selecting all options [or boxes] will increase your chances." It says "select all options below for Best Available." It then goes on to say "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances." If "multiple seat preferences" was just another way of saying "options" [or boxes], they would have said "selecting all options below will increase your chances of getting tickets." Instead, they said selecting "multiple seat preferences" will increase your chances. That means if you select a single seat preference, i.e., P1 only or P2 only, you have a lesser chance than if you select multiple preferences, i.e., P1 + P2, or GA/P1 + P2, or GA/P1. It doesn't mean you have a lesser chance unless you select the same seat preference multiple times.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.This weekend we rock Portland0 -
Are we really arguing selecting every option that has P1 in it gets you better odds of getting P1? Lolmookieblalock said:
I find it ironic the people arguing with me are about this are the people who didn’t win ticketsSHZA said:
Agree, options = boxes. It doesn't say "selecting all options [or boxes] will increase your chances." It says "select all options below for Best Available." It then goes on to say "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances." If "multiple seat preferences" was just another way of saying "options" [or boxes], they would have said "selecting all options below will increase your chances of getting tickets." Instead, they said selecting "multiple seat preferences" will increase your chances. That means if you select a single seat preference, i.e., P1 only or P2 only, you have a lesser chance than if you select multiple preferences, i.e., P1 + P2, or GA/P1 + P2, or GA/P1. It doesn't mean you have a lesser chance unless you select the same seat preference multiple times.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.0 -
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
That's your response? I did win tickets. Not 10 for 10 or anything. I was only interested in GA, so this debate wasn't going to affect my results either way. Just pointing out misinformation.mookieblalock said:
I find it ironic the people arguing with me are about this are the people who didn’t win ticketsSHZA said:
Agree, options = boxes. It doesn't say "selecting all options [or boxes] will increase your chances." It says "select all options below for Best Available." It then goes on to say "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances." If "multiple seat preferences" was just another way of saying "options" [or boxes], they would have said "selecting all options below will increase your chances of getting tickets." Instead, they said selecting "multiple seat preferences" will increase your chances. That means if you select a single seat preference, i.e., P1 only or P2 only, you have a lesser chance than if you select multiple preferences, i.e., P1 + P2, or GA/P1 + P2, or GA/P1. It doesn't mean you have a lesser chance unless you select the same seat preference multiple times.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.0 -
Can yes. What you are not grasping is the odds of that actually happening.mookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
After the debacle last year there was no way I wasn't going to select all options. I get not wanting P2 or only wanting GA, but there was added risk involved in that.___________________________________________
"...I changed by not changing at all..."0 -
.mookieblalock said:
I find it ironic the people arguing with me are about this are the people who didn’t win ticketsSHZA said:
Agree, options = boxes. It doesn't say "selecting all options [or boxes] will increase your chances." It says "select all options below for Best Available." It then goes on to say "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances." If "multiple seat preferences" was just another way of saying "options" [or boxes], they would have said "selecting all options below will increase your chances of getting tickets." Instead, they said selecting "multiple seat preferences" will increase your chances. That means if you select a single seat preference, i.e., P1 only or P2 only, you have a lesser chance than if you select multiple preferences, i.e., P1 + P2, or GA/P1 + P2, or GA/P1. It doesn't mean you have a lesser chance unless you select the same seat preference multiple times.mookieblalock said:
Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??SHZA said:
Exactly. It doesn't say selecting all options will increase your chances or anything about a difference between P1 and P1mookieblalock said:SHZA said:
Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.mookieblalock said:
Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.SHZA said:
And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusionmpedone said:JR86440 said:
It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both.PB11041 said:Get_Right said:I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not. More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.
I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.Hey Larry you may be spot on, but if this is how they did it, it’s a horrific way of doing what is supposed to be a fair lottery. They are clearly saying seat preferences, and p1 and ga/pa1 are indisputably the same exact seat preference, if we are to abide by our common language.
if they did as you suggest and treated ga/p1 and p1 separate draws and doubling the chances of some fans based on vague language, that’s a significantly horrifying way of doing a fair chance lottery.If that’s how they did the draw, they should be held to a basic simple standard and specifically disclose that ga/p1 and p1 are two separate draws . Your image does not say that.
if the PJ system of rewarding ticket winners are fair, why are they changing the rules and processes every tour? Why not keep it consistent instead of a guessing game?And TM is worse than ten c, Eddie?0 -
Yeah but landing 4 NE GA is like landing tails 13 times in a row. Sure it can happen but the odds are really low. And you wouldn’t expect 1 guy to do it and then have his wife be able to do it back to back.mookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lotteryHis eminence has yet to show.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=36520 -
That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratchmookieblalock said:
Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.NewfieintheUSA said:
How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account?Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0 -
The odds in the past were actually the number that represented no priority. It was only there to give an indication of interest for that given show. So yes imo those numbers in the past def can be used today and they are actually higher numbers than what we have in the 2024.PB11041 said:
None of this is standard mathematics, that is the problem everyone is suffering from here. You are applying the old system that showed statistical probability of outcomes to a system that dismissed prioritization. The only shows that were stated as such were MSG. You wanted the law of statistical probability to apply to something that was devoid of that built in feature. So naturally things were skewed. I am not arguing against that better guardrails could be in place. But it absolutely is demonstrably possible given the results that people could win multiple and people could get shut out. The how and why, you are never going to know so it is a worthless exercise.Lerxst1992 said:PB11041 said:
each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.Lerxst1992 said:PJNB said:
Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end.Lerxst1992 said:NewfieintheUSA said:
I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random eitherMerkin Baller said:Well said @mpedone.
I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it.
I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows.This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.
The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.
We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.
Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before.With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.
How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.
Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.
based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.
I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery0
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