The problem with this setup is that the lottery is not actually based on the shows but mainly on the full request. Had it been based on the shows than everybody that sent in a request for say NY #1 would have there name in the drawing, and so on for each show. Than everybody would have a chance for each show. What is happening is let’s say they pick 1,000 requests then they fill them from those people if more tickets are still available for certain shows they keep picking more requests until the rest of the available shows are filled. This is why the people who picked the most amount of shows had better odds of getting more if and only if there request ticket was picked in the 1st round. So the 1st request ticket picked will get everything they want, and so on.
This is not how it works.
Think about it this way: There is a store selling PJ tickets, once you get in the store (the lottery in this case) there are lines set up for each show. Once inside you go to the 1st line/show on your request, if tickets are available you get them. Then if you have more shows on your list you go to that line and see if it is available until your list is complete.
What should be happening is that once inside the store you go to your 1st choice, if available or not you exit the store then see if you are picked again to enter the store to try another line/show.
This is also like the queue at Ticketmaster. You can only pick 1 show and have to wait your turn to purchase tickets. Once that is done if you want another show you have to get in another queue to wait until you can purchase again.
What this lottery is doing, is after you wait in line for the 1st queue you don’t have to wait again for any of the other shows you just see what is available from your requests.
No. There is a drawing for GA tickets at, for example, Vancouver 1. If you chose that show and are selected in that drawing, you get GA tickets. Then there is a second drawing for P1 tickets among those who selected that show but were not chosen for GA. If you are selected in that drawing, you get P1 tickets. Then there is a third drawing for P2 tickets among those who selected that show but were not chosen for GA or P1. If you are selected in that drawing, you get P2 tickets.
Then the same process occurs for Vancouver 2. And so on.
Yes, that’s how it should/used to work. Where every show had its own lottery, but this is not how it is being done now.
Any low-numbered members who really believe that higher numbers are secretly given preference are free to cancel your memberships and sign up for new ones with much higher numbers and test your hypothesis.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Question is has anyone heard about any of the North American shows TODAY or did they finish sending out all the confirmations yesterday
1st: 6/26/1998 - Alpine Valley - East Troy, WI 2nd: 6/13/1999 - Alpine Valley - East Troy, WI - TIBETAN FREEDOM (Eddie Vedder + C Average) 3rd: 8/18/2000 - Deer Creek Music Theater - Noblesville, IN 4th: 10/8/2000 - Alpine Valley - East Troy, WI (The Ice Bowl) 5th: 4/23/2003 - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL 6th: 6/18/2003 - United Center - Chicago, IL 7th: 6/21/2003 - Alpine Valley - East Troy, WI 8th: 5/16/06 - United Center - Chicago, IL 9th: 6/29/2006 - Marcus Amphitheater - Milwaukee, WI 10th: 8/23/2009 - United Center - Chicago, IL 11th: 5/7/2010 - Deer Creek Music Theater - Noblesville, IN 12th: 7/19/2013 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL 13th: 10/20/2014 - BMO Harris Bradley Center - Milwaukee, WI 14th: 8/20/2016 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL 15th: 8/22/2016 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL 16th: 8/18/2018 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL 17th: 8/20/2018 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL 18th: 9/5/2023 - United Center - Chicago, IL 19th: 9/7/2023 - United Center - Chicago, IL 20th: 8/29/2024 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL 21st: 8/31/2024 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
I'm sorry for all the folks that didn't get their hometown requests fulfilled. Please kindly remember that an overwhelming number of Pearl Jam fans don't live in major cities, meaning they will never have the luxury of a hometown show. Thus, every show is going to have out of towners that deserve to be there as much as the locals.
1998: Barrie 2000: Toronto 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Toronto 2006: Toronto 1&2, Paris, Milan, Torino, Pistoia 2009: Calgary, Vancouver 2011: Canada 2013: London, Wrigley, Philly 1&2 2014: St. Louis, ACL 1, Detroit 2016: Lexington, Quebec, Ottawa, Toronto 1&2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 1&2 2017: EV - Louisville 2018: London1&2, Milan, Padova, Rome, Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Wrigley 1&2, Fenway 1&2 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton2021: London 1&22022: Hamilton, Toronto 2023: Chicago 1&2, Noblesville2024: Seattle 1&2, Noblesville, Wrigley 1&2
Question is has anyone heard about any of the North American shows TODAY or did they finish sending out all the confirmations yesterday
I think the best hope at this point is after the seating assignments are done, there might be some singles left, but other than that, it doesn't seem likely there are any fan club tickets left.
"...what a different life had i not found this love with you..."
I'm sorry for all the folks that didn't get their hometown requests fulfilled. Please kindly remember that an overwhelming number of Pearl Jam fans don't live in major cities, meaning they will never have the luxury of a hometown show. Thus, every show is going to have out of towners that deserve to be there as much as the locals.
It's an economic boost for Philly when all these people travel to see PJ.
I remember snagging TOTD seats at the last minute and the guys next to me were from Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, etc. I'm like I live 3 miles away, took the trolley.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I'm sorry for all the folks that didn't get their hometown requests fulfilled. Please kindly remember that an overwhelming number of Pearl Jam fans don't live in major cities, meaning they will never have the luxury of a hometown show. Thus, every show is going to have out of towners that deserve to be there as much as the locals.
I know its not over but I still can't believe a 10c member could get snubbed from Wrigley
Noblesville 5.7.2010. Lexington 4.26.2016. Nashville 9.16.2022. St Louis 9.18.2022. Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023. *Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted) Seattle 5.30.2024 Noblesville 8.26.2024 Chicago 8.29.2024 Chicago 8.31.2024
Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved MSG N1- nothing MSG N2- P2 reserved Philly N1- P1 reserved Philly N2- GA Baltimore- P1 reserved
Feel very fortunate to have scored my first GA ever in a 10c lottery (in about 50 attempts). Now on to F2F to try to upgrade the rest!
Here's another person who had a split GA/P1 result in a city.
Didn’t you (maybe another member?) earlier say it wasn’t common to have multiple winners for high demand shows?
Unless I am reading incorrectly… Steven was (congrats!!) :
1 for 1 msg (due to msg show limit) that’s gotta be hitting huge odds. also, Philly 2 for 2 both better than p2 - that’s gotta be huge odds Baltimore p1, better than p2, balt is a tiny arena and difficult in the past, and zero shows south of Baltimore, gotta be tough to hit p1 there
Three in demand cities, four for four in each, all better than p2?
if this is anything like past tours where these three cities were all under 20%, and nyc under ten percent , that’s gotta be like hitting odds off 200 to one (total guess, but it must be huge)
considering such low odds and how high demand these cities are, it seems very weird considering how many in northeast are completely shut out. I’ve seen ALOT of members here with this type of luck. Great for them , but very weird.
Or 10c selected more seats as Premium vs holding them for 10C members.. just a thought and maybe premiums are a little less than last year in terms of price but a lot more of them
Nashville '00 Houston, B'ham, Nashville, Atlanta '03 Toledo, Grand Rapids '04 Kitchener, London '05 Camden x 2, D.C., Cincy, San Fran x 3 '06 Chicago '07 Columbia '08 MSG x 2 '10; PJ 20 x 2 '11 Atlanta '12 Wrigley '13 St. Louis, Memphis '14 Lexington '15 Wrigley '16 Wrigley x 2 '18 Nashville '22
I know its not over but I still can't believe a 10c member could get snubbed from Wrigley
I am a bit surprised as well. Only show I put in for was 8/31. Oh well. General sale and/or F2F it is.
I put in for both Wrigley shows but came away with nothing. It seems demand may have been higher than thought because it is only Midwest location and it falls on a holiday weekend. Will be doing the same as everyone else and hoping I get lucky in F2F.
I'm sorry for all the folks that didn't get their hometown requests fulfilled. Please kindly remember that an overwhelming number of Pearl Jam fans don't live in major cities, meaning they will never have the luxury of a hometown show. Thus, every show is going to have out of towners that deserve to be there as much as the locals.
83% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas
And Pearl Jam only plays 4 of those urban areas in the Northeast. Only one in the Midwest this year. None in the South. Most of us aren’t in the RIGHT urban areas for that stat to matter.
I know its not over but I still can't believe a 10c member could get snubbed from Wrigley
Seems crazy to me because I got great seats to Safeco field Seattle shows in 2018 from Verified Fan. That was before PJ Premium so it's kind of crazy to me that anyone could get turned away from a baseball stadium show.
Or 10c selected more seats as Premium vs holding them for 10C members.. just a thought and maybe premiums are a little less than last year in terms of price but a lot more of them
I will believe that when I see it. You might be right about there being more, but them being cheaper? Maybe if enough people are feeling salty about the lottery to hold of from buying them the prices will drop, but initially, I would doubt it.
"I'm a lucky man, to count on both hands the [shows I've done]. Some folks just have one, others they got none..."
Couldn’t make it anywhere except Philly. That one seems to be high demand, and so far did not get a pull for either show. Being from the southeast, couldn’t fly or take work time to the west coast. Europe is too expensive for me to fly (already have a school trip booked to Rome in December).
🤞 for the South next year. And for luck in the lottery!
If there is anything I take away from the lottery threads it is that many Pearl Jam fans have truly awful reading comprehension and like to complain about anything.
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
Pretty fking low
Not insane at all. Each drawing is independent. It's about a 1/10 shot for each. It can happen very easily.
192xxx 6/26+27/98, 10/8/00 (IB), 6/21/03, 9/3+4/11 (PJ20) - East Troy 6/29/98, 10/9/00, 6/18/03, 5/16+17/06, 8/23+24/09, 8/20+22/16, 8/18+20/18, 8/29+31/24 - Chicago 6/6/03 - Las Vegas 10/5/04, 9/18/22 - St. Louis 6/29/06, 10/20/14 - Milwaukee 11/19/13 - Phoenix 4/26/16 - Lexington
If there is anything I take away from the lottery threads it is that many Pearl Jam fans have truly awful reading comprehension and like to complain about anything.
This reads to me like a complaint.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.
Statistics actually show the opposite: some people will get all of their requests and some will get none in a random distribution.
I rolled the dice six times and didn’t land a 12. These dice are rigged.
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
Pretty fking low
Not insane at all. Each drawing is independent. It's about a 1/10 shot for each. It can happen very easily.
GA for an individual show was 10% odds? You really think that high?
Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt. Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing. Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.
If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show. It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.
This!
192xxx 6/26+27/98, 10/8/00 (IB), 6/21/03, 9/3+4/11 (PJ20) - East Troy 6/29/98, 10/9/00, 6/18/03, 5/16+17/06, 8/23+24/09, 8/20+22/16, 8/18+20/18, 8/29+31/24 - Chicago 6/6/03 - Las Vegas 10/5/04, 9/18/22 - St. Louis 6/29/06, 10/20/14 - Milwaukee 11/19/13 - Phoenix 4/26/16 - Lexington
I'm sorry for all the folks that didn't get their hometown requests fulfilled. Please kindly remember that an overwhelming number of Pearl Jam fans don't live in major cities, meaning they will never have the luxury of a hometown show. Thus, every show is going to have out of towners that deserve to be there as much as the locals.
83% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas
Does Pearl Jam play all of those urban areas?
1998: Barrie 2000: Toronto 2005: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Toronto 2006: Toronto 1&2, Paris, Milan, Torino, Pistoia 2009: Calgary, Vancouver 2011: Canada 2013: London, Wrigley, Philly 1&2 2014: St. Louis, ACL 1, Detroit 2016: Lexington, Quebec, Ottawa, Toronto 1&2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 1&2 2017: EV - Louisville 2018: London1&2, Milan, Padova, Rome, Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Wrigley 1&2, Fenway 1&2 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton2021: London 1&22022: Hamilton, Toronto 2023: Chicago 1&2, Noblesville2024: Seattle 1&2, Noblesville, Wrigley 1&2
Comments
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22 | Baltimore 09.12.24 | Fenway 1 09.15.24 | Fenway 2 09.17.24
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
Question is has anyone heard about any of the North American shows TODAY or did they finish sending out all the confirmations yesterday
2nd: 6/13/1999 - Alpine Valley - East Troy, WI - TIBETAN FREEDOM (Eddie Vedder + C Average)
3rd: 8/18/2000 - Deer Creek Music Theater - Noblesville, IN
4th: 10/8/2000 - Alpine Valley - East Troy, WI (The Ice Bowl)
5th: 4/23/2003 - Assembly Hall - Champaign, IL
6th: 6/18/2003 - United Center - Chicago, IL
7th: 6/21/2003 - Alpine Valley - East Troy, WI
8th: 5/16/06 - United Center - Chicago, IL
9th: 6/29/2006 - Marcus Amphitheater - Milwaukee, WI
10th: 8/23/2009 - United Center - Chicago, IL
11th: 5/7/2010 - Deer Creek Music Theater - Noblesville, IN
12th: 7/19/2013 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
13th: 10/20/2014 - BMO Harris Bradley Center - Milwaukee, WI
14th: 8/20/2016 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
15th: 8/22/2016 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
16th: 8/18/2018 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
17th: 8/20/2018 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
18th: 9/5/2023 - United Center - Chicago, IL
19th: 9/7/2023 - United Center - Chicago, IL
20th: 8/29/2024 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
21st: 8/31/2024 - Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
I remember snagging TOTD seats at the last minute and the guys next to me were from Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, etc. I'm like I live 3 miles away, took the trolley.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
83% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas
Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023.
*Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted)
Seattle 5.30.2024 Noblesville 8.26.2024 Chicago 8.29.2024 Chicago 8.31.2024
I am a bit surprised as well. Only show I put in for was 8/31. Oh well. General sale and/or F2F it is.
2014 - Milwaukee
2016 - Fenway N1
2018 - Wrigley N1
2022 - Oakland N1
2023 - St Paul N1
2024 - Wrigley N2
Unless I am reading incorrectly… Steven was (congrats!!) :
1 for 1 msg (due to msg show limit) that’s gotta be hitting huge odds.
also, Philly 2 for 2 both better than p2 - that’s gotta be huge odds
Baltimore p1, better than p2, balt is a tiny arena and difficult in the past, and zero shows south of Baltimore, gotta be tough to hit p1 there
Three in demand cities, four for four in each, all better than p2?
if this is anything like past tours where these three cities were all under 20%, and nyc under ten percent , that’s gotta be like hitting odds off 200 to one (total guess, but it must be huge)
considering such low odds and how high demand these cities are, it seems very weird considering how many in northeast are completely shut out. I’ve seen ALOT of members here with this type of luck. Great for them , but very weird.
Houston, B'ham, Nashville, Atlanta '03
Toledo, Grand Rapids '04
Kitchener, London '05
Camden x 2, D.C., Cincy, San Fran x 3 '06
Chicago '07
Columbia '08
MSG x 2 '10;
PJ 20 x 2 '11
Atlanta '12
Wrigley '13
St. Louis, Memphis '14
Lexington '15
Wrigley '16
Wrigley x 2 '18
Nashville '22
LA1: P1
LA2: P1
Missoula: Nothing
MSG1: Nothing
MSG2: Nothing
Boston1: P1
Boston2: P1
Hartford 10.02.96 | Mansfield 2 09.16.98 | Mansfield 1 08.29.00 | Mansfield 1 07.02.03 | Mansfield 3 07.11.03 | Boston 2 05.25.06 | Tampa 04.11.16 | Fenway 1 08.05.16 | Fenway 2 08.07.16 | Fenway 1 09.02.18 | Fenway 2 09.04.18 | Baltimore 03.28.20 | Hamilton 09.06.22 | Toronto 09.08.22 | Nashville 09.16.22 | St Louis 09.18.22 | Baltimore 09.12.24 | Fenway 1 09.15.24 | Fenway 2 09.17.24
"He made the deal with the devil, we get to play with him.
He goes to hell, of course. We're going to heaven."
6/26+27/98, 10/8/00 (IB), 6/21/03, 9/3+4/11 (PJ20) - East Troy
6/29/98, 10/9/00, 6/18/03, 5/16+17/06, 8/23+24/09, 8/20+22/16, 8/18+20/18, 8/29+31/24 - Chicago
6/6/03 - Las Vegas
10/5/04, 9/18/22 - St. Louis
6/29/06, 10/20/14 - Milwaukee
11/19/13 - Phoenix
4/26/16 - Lexington
6/26+27/98, 10/8/00 (IB), 6/21/03, 9/3+4/11 (PJ20) - East Troy
6/29/98, 10/9/00, 6/18/03, 5/16+17/06, 8/23+24/09, 8/20+22/16, 8/18+20/18, 8/29+31/24 - Chicago
6/6/03 - Las Vegas
10/5/04, 9/18/22 - St. Louis
6/29/06, 10/20/14 - Milwaukee
11/19/13 - Phoenix
4/26/16 - Lexington