All I know is when my membership number begins with 1, I think I should get GA for a show.
The system has never guaranteed tickets based on seniority, so why would you think that? My membership number begins with 1 and I have never thought that because that's not how it works.
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
I have 2 reserved for Vegas both nights, and I am looking to sell for what I paid. I am looking for Wrigley N2 as well.
I need a pair of Vegas tickets to both nights. Badly.
I'd be happy to help!
Ok, so how? I've never done this before.
Van '98, Sea I+II '00, Sea '01, Sea II '02, Van '03, Gorge, Van, Cal, Edm '05, Bos I+II, Phi I+II, DC, SF II+III, Port, Gorge I+II '06, DC, NY I+II '08, Sea I+II, Van, Ridge , LA III+IV' 09, Indy '10, Cal, Van '11, Lond, Van, Sea '13, Memphis '14, RRHOF '17, Sea I+II '18, Van I+II, Vegas I+II '24
I entered the lottery for the two Fenway shows in part because the seating map seemed to indicate that these shows would have some of the highest amount of available reserved 10 club seats along with Wrigley. I was able to get night 2 P1 reserved but I was very surprised that I appear to be shut out for night 1. I realize the show is on a Sunday compared to a Tuesday but I'm still a little shocked that they filled up all of those reserved 10 club seats. The demand must have been huge even with a GA pit this time and there must be a ton of PJ Premium seats being held back. But I guess that's what makes it a lottery. I don't really feel like traveling with all the expense for just 1 show and don't have the patience to battle the F2F warriors so I will probably just dump the tickets this time around.
4/22/92 St. Petersburg, 8/23/92 Orlando, 3/29/94 St. Petersburg, 10/7/96 Ft. Lauderdale, 9/8/98 East Rutherford, 9/22/98 West Palm Beach, 9/23/98 West Palm Beach, 8/9/00 West Palm Beach, 8/10/00 West Palm Beach, 8/12/00 Tampa, 4/11/03 West Palm Beach, 4/13/03 Tampa, 6/2/03 Irvine, 6/3/03 Irvine, 9/28/04 Boston, 9/29/04 Boston, 9/1/05 George WA, 9/11/05 Kitchener, 9/12/05 London, 9/13/05 Hamilton, 10/03/05 Philadelphia, 5/16/06 Chicago, 5/17/06 Chicago, 6/23/06 Pittsburgh, 6/24/06 Cincinnati, 6/11/08, West Palm Beach, 6/12/08 Tampa, 6/19/08 Camden, 6/20/08 Camden, 8/23/09 Chicago, 8/24/09 Chicago, 10/27/09 Philadelphia, 10/28/09 Philadelphia, 10/30/09 Philadelphia, 10/31/09 Philadelphia, 5/18/10 New Jersey, 5/20/10 New York, 5/21/10 New York, 9/3/11 East Troy, 9/4/11 East Troy, 9/11/11 Toronto, 9/12/11 Toronto, 9/02/12 Philadelphia, 9/21/12 Pensacola, 7/19/13 Chicago, 10/18/13 Brooklyn, 10/19/13 Brooklyn, 11/23/13 LA, 10/24/13 LA, 11/16/13 Oklahoma City, 10/1/14 Cincinnati, 10/20/14 Milwaukee, 10/22/14 Denver, 4/8/16 Ft. Lauderdale, 4/9/16 Miami, 4/11/16 Tampa, 5/1/16 New York, 5/2/16 New York, 8/5/16 Boston, 8/7/16 Boston, 8/20/16 Chicago, 8/22/16 Chicago, 4/07/17 New York, 8/08/18 Seattle, 8/10/18 Seattle, 8/20/18 Chicago 9/02/18 Boston, 9/04/18 Boston, 9/11/22 New York, 9/16/22 Nashville, 9/22/22 Denver, 8/31/23, St. Paul, 9/2/23 St. Paul, 9/18/23 Austin, 9/19/23 Austin
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
No, it's random. In a random drawing, some will get a lot, some will get a few, and some will get none. Whether you were selected for a specific show was independent of whether you were also selected for other shows.
Everyone had the same chance at each show they tried for. Some shows had more demand. I got all of my requests, but I also did not request the high-demand shows in New York, Philadelphia, Boston or Chicago, so my chances of getting all of my requests were better than people who did go for those shows.
There are likely also some people who chose not to put in for P2 for their shows, which meant that, if they got tickets, their seats would be better, but also meant that their chances of being shut out altogether were increased because they didn't have as many entries in the lottery.
Some will get a lot, some will get a few, and some will get none, but the sizes of those groups should not be the same. A very lucky (or unlucky) few people should get a lot or none, while the vast majority of the entrants should have a mixed bag. Like if you flip a coin 10 times, very rarely would you get 10 heads or tails in a row
I think you will find, if you go back through this thread, that the vast majority of entrants got some (to coin a phrase), and did not get all or none (to coin a phrase). With respect to the coin analogy, the coin only has two possible outcomes of equal likelihood. This lottery may seem analogous, but it isn't as simple as "you get tickets or you don't" because the supply and demand is different for each show. Sacramento might be more likely to come up with all tails, MSG all heads and Portland somewhere in between.
Yet my wife and I went 0/4 for Seattle and Philly while others hit all.
You say "yet" as if this outcome is unusual, but this is totally consistent with "some will get all, some will get some, some will get none." I don't mean to sound unsympathetic. I do sympathize with your bad luck today. I hope you have better luck on F2F, or in the general onsale if you go that route.
How is this system improved over the priority one? I can't think of any valid ways.
With the priority system I could almost guarantee winning tickets for a show if I put a lower demand show first. If I put a high demand show first, I knew I was gambling, but was ok with that
Did I say it was an improvement? I have not given any opinion on that. I'm just telling you that it worked out the way it would be expected to work out. That ends up being a boon for some people and a bane for others. Whether that's better or worse than alternative distribution systems is a different question.
It's definitely worse. I agree you'll have random combinations of results with this system, benefitting some and punishing others.
Yep, worse. I did fine with my picks, but removing priority is a big mistake. I do like the P1 and P2 options as it gives higher TC numbers a chance to avoid P2 seats, and it advantages those who just want to be in the building. For those going O-fer, I wonder if they chose GA/P1 and P1 only. That certainly makes you more likely to go 0-fer.
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
There are so many things wrong with this. For one thing, you're making up supply and demand numbers out of thin air and then generating odds from them as if they are the actual odds. For another, your friend who put in for 11 shows did not go 9-for-11 on high-demand shows. The odds of some of those GAs will be much higher than some others. You do not have the requisite data to do this math properly, and you are using anecdotal evidence, ignoring the anecdota that don't fit your thesis and giving extra weight to the ones that do.
I can't keep doing this. The system worked as it should have and as it was intended to. That worked out great for some of us, and poorly for others. Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints). But there's no conspiracy at work here. I don't know what else to say to people who believe that there is.
For those going O-fer, I wonder if they chose GA/P1 and P1 only. That certainly makes you more likely to go 0-fer.
This is a very good point. There are no doubt some people who did this, either because they didn't read the instructions or because they didn't believe the instructions (or because they would rather not be in the building than in a "bad" seat).
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
There are so many things wrong with this. For one thing, you're making up supply and demand numbers out of thin air and then generating odds from them as if they are the actual odds. For another, your friend who put in for 11 shows did not go 9-for-11 on high-demand shows. The odds of some of those GAs will be much higher than some others. You do not have the requisite data to do this math properly, and you are using anecdotal evidence, ignoring the anecdota that don't fit your thesis and giving extra weight to the ones that do.
I can't keep doing this. The system worked as it should have and as it was intended to. That worked out great for some of us, and poorly for others. Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints). But there's no conspiracy at work here. I don't know what else to say to people who believe that there is.
The math is making assumptions, but do you think there was less than 5000 requests for GA for Philly and Boston? The general idea of this is correct.
Yeah. Just not a big conspiracy guy. There never seems to be one when it works out for ya. Tends to be an awful lot when you lose. Just doesn't add up in the end.
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
There are so many things wrong with this. For one thing, you're making up supply and demand numbers out of thin air and then generating odds from them as if they are the actual odds. For another, your friend who put in for 11 shows did not go 9-for-11 on high-demand shows. The odds of some of those GAs will be much higher than some others. You do not have the requisite data to do this math properly, and you are using anecdotal evidence, ignoring the anecdota that don't fit your thesis and giving extra weight to the ones that do.
I can't keep doing this. The system worked as it should have and as it was intended to. That worked out great for some of us, and poorly for others. Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints). But there's no conspiracy at work here. I don't know what else to say to people who believe that there is.
Mine numbers are not pulled out of thin air. Those numbers are likely on the low side with how many people put in for Fenway and Philly and those pit sizes are close enough to not matter either way within a hundred.
Bottom line is way too many cases of one account getting multiple GAs while another account gets zero. I understand it’s complicated and nearly impossible to make a perfect system. But whatever algorithms are being used to distribute tickets are producing lopsided results.
1998: Mansfield, MA (9/15) 2000: Virginia Beach, VA (8/3), Saratoga Springs, NY (8/27), Mansfield, MA (8/29 and 8/30) 2003: Albany, NY (4/29), Mansfield, MA (7/2 and 7/3), New York, NY (7/8 and 7/9) 2006: Hartford, CT (5/23), Boston, MA (5/24 and 5/25) 2009: Chicago, IL (8/23 and 8/24) 2010: Boston, MA (5/17) 2011: East Troy, WI (9/3 and 9/4) 2013: Worcester, MA (10/15 and 10/16), Hartford, CT (10/25) 2016: Boston, MA (8/5 and 8/7) 2018: Boston, MA (9/2 and 9/4) 2022: Camden, NJ (9/14) 2024: Boston, MA (9/15 and 9/17)
For those going O-fer, I wonder if they chose GA/P1 and P1 only. That certainly makes you more likely to go 0-fer.
This is a very good point. There are no doubt some people who did this, either because they didn't read the instructions or because they didn't believe the instructions (or because they would rather not be in the building than in a "bad" seat).
My issue is not with not being selected, it's the fact that some people got GA to all 4 of the shows I put in for while i got nothing. I didn't select p2, I knew that decreased my odds, but selecting p2 should not increase your odds of getting GA
All I know is when my membership number begins with 1, I think I should get GA for a show. I got zero GA when I’m seeing other people scoring GA for multiple shows. How is that fair? I’ve been through all the different iterations of systems over the years and I’ve never gotten lucky with any of them. It’s fair to have everyone get a shot at one GA show. But what should not happen is someone getting multiple GA shows while others get zero. If someone with less seniority than me is in the pit for 2 shows and I’m in for none, that tells me it’s a bad system.
My number is 88xxx and I didn’t get any tickets at all.
Not sure but it feels less than optimal. If it truly is random, I have really really bad luck.
Bottom line is way too many cases of one account getting multiple GAs while another account gets zero. I understand it’s complicated and nearly impossible to make a perfect system. But whatever algorithms are being used to distribute tickets are producing lopsided results.
TM doesn’t get enough fees to create a decent algorithm
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
There are so many things wrong with this. For one thing, you're making up supply and demand numbers out of thin air and then generating odds from them as if they are the actual odds. For another, your friend who put in for 11 shows did not go 9-for-11 on high-demand shows. The odds of some of those GAs will be much higher than some others. You do not have the requisite data to do this math properly, and you are using anecdotal evidence, ignoring the anecdota that don't fit your thesis and giving extra weight to the ones that do.
I can't keep doing this. The system worked as it should have and as it was intended to. That worked out great for some of us, and poorly for others. Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints). But there's no conspiracy at work here. I don't know what else to say to people who believe that there is.
Even with the 9 of 11 including some lower demand shows, the compounded probability of hitting GA on 9 out of 11 shows is extremely low
For those going O-fer, I wonder if they chose GA/P1 and P1 only. That certainly makes you more likely to go 0-fer.
This is a very good point. There are no doubt some people who did this, either because they didn't read the instructions or because they didn't believe the instructions (or because they would rather not be in the building than in a "bad" seat).
My issue is not with not being selected, it's the fact that some people got GA to all 4 of the shows I put in for while i got nothing. I didn't select p2, I knew that decreased my odds, but selecting p2 should not increase your odds of getting GA
Selecting p2 doesn't decrease, or increase, your GA odds at all.
Forgive me for not reading the previous 78 pages.... I was incredibly lucky with the lottery results this year and am wondering if anyone else hit it like I did. I went 10 for 10. Vancouver N1 & N2, Vegas N1, MSG N2, PHI N1 & N2, BOS N1, NZ, Gold Coast and Melbourne. About half and half for GA and Reserved seating. Any others get all their shows? To top it off, my wife got MSG N1.
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints).
I agree with much of what you are saying, and there will always be complaints, but a system that allows for someone to get 4 GA's out of 5 or 6 shows and another person gets 0 GA's, or even 0-1 tickets total, is a deeply flawed system (in terms of equity) and no system prior to this has been this unequal.
For those going O-fer, I wonder if they chose GA/P1 and P1 only. That certainly makes you more likely to go 0-fer.
This is a very good point. There are no doubt some people who did this, either because they didn't read the instructions or because they didn't believe the instructions (or because they would rather not be in the building than in a "bad" seat).
My issue is not with not being selected, it's the fact that some people got GA to all 4 of the shows I put in for while i got nothing. I didn't select p2, I knew that decreased my odds, but selecting p2 should not increase your odds of getting GA
Selecting p2 doesn't decrease your odds at all.
I said not selecting p2 decreased my odds of getting in the building
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints).
I agree with much of what you are saying, and there will always be complaints, but a system that allows for someone to get 4 GA's out of 5 or 6 shows and another person gets 0 GA's, or even 0-1 tickets total, is a deeply flawed system (in terms of equity) and no system prior to this has been this unequal.
It's been a long day. Overall, I didn't do as great with the NA tour. But if you add in my Europe shows I got 5/10 total. GAs for London and both Berlin, P1 for Baltimore, and P2 for MSG N2. I didn't get anything for Seattle or Philly - so 2/7 shows for NA tour. Not great. But last year though F2F and the help of many good Ten Club friends I managed to upgrade to 5 GAs out 6 shows. So, I am ready for that challenge again.
For someone who basically just refreshed their email all day like a lunatic - I am exhausted!!
Bottom line is way too many cases of one account getting multiple GAs while another account gets zero. I understand it’s complicated and nearly impossible to make a perfect system. But whatever algorithms are being used to distribute tickets are producing lopsided results.
No, they aren't. Statistics don't work that way. If you flip a coin and hit heads 5 times in a row, that doesn't mean you are more likely to hit tails the 6th time. It is still 50/50. If we both put in for GA for 6 shows, and you win the first 5 and I don't, that doesn't mean I have a better shot at hitting number 6. We both have the same chance. Sucks, but that is how it is.
Wrigley 1 GA yes. Are they sending notifications if your request gets declined as well?
The decline emails come out after all the winner emails. Basically you get a summary email that tells you which of your entries were chosen and which were "unfulfilled"
I think they mean credit card declined, as in they got selected but the card was declined.
I think that answer is yes, if you got selected, and the card declined, you would get an email.
If you DONT get chosen for the lottery, those will come later this week.
No, I did mean to find out that I didn't get picked for the lottery. Which I assume is the case for Philly 2 since I did get a congratulatory email for Philly 1.
'96: Toronto / '00: Toronto, Montreal / '03: Buffalo, State College, Toronto, Montreal, NYC I & II, Hershey / '04: Toledo, Grand Rapids / '05: Kitchener, London, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto / '06: Toronto I & II / '07: Chicago (The Vic), Lolla / '09: Toronto / '11: PJ20 I & II, Montreal, Toronto I & II / '13: London ON, Wrigley, Buffalo, Brooklyn I & II / '16: Toronto I & II, Fenway I & II / '18: London UK I, Wrigley I & II, Fenway I
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
Would probably help if we had more data. Like how many tix are available to begin with and what % of those tix are GA etc.. like is it 10% Ga, 60% P1, 30% P2. Then you could calculate the different types of outcomes you would expect to see. I think the only odd one that stood out to me was LA. Didn’t see anyone report on getting GA one night and P1 or P2 the next. Seemed like they were all reporting GA for both or P1 for both.
My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.
It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many.
100%. All or nothing.
No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.
Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.
When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen.
Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.
Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.
I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen.
Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much.
Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more.
400/5000
8% chance at getting GA for night 1.
Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 =
0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA.
But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.
Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again.
750/5000= 0.15
So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds.
I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for.
Want to do the math on that?
Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints).
I agree with much of what you are saying, and there will always be complaints, but a system that allows for someone to get 4 GA's out of 5 or 6 shows and another person gets 0 GA's, or even 0-1 tickets total, is a deeply flawed system (in terms of equity) and no system prior to this has been this unequal.
Yes, priority needs to be part of this. I don’t complain on here much but losing the one Wrigley show I put in for while others get GA for both would not happen with priority.
This show, another show, a show here and a show there.
Bottom line is way too many cases of one account getting multiple GAs while another account gets zero. I understand it’s complicated and nearly impossible to make a perfect system. But whatever algorithms are being used to distribute tickets are producing lopsided results.
No, they aren't. Statistics don't work that way. If you flip a coin and hit heads 5 times in a row, that doesn't mean you are more likely to hit tails the 6th time. It is still 50/50. If we both put in for GA for 6 shows, and you win the first 5 and I don't, that doesn't mean I have a better shot at hitting number 6. We both have the same chance. Sucks, but that is how it is.
Agreed that is how this system is, but it doesn't need to be this way
So the way you break this system is everyone chooses every show and then swaps through P2P on TM. Is that where this is headed? I only tried for two shows and got none as of now.
Comments
these shows would have some of the highest amount of available reserved 10 club seats along with Wrigley.
I was able to get night 2 P1 reserved but I was very surprised that I appear to be shut out for night 1. I realize the show
is on a Sunday compared to a Tuesday but I'm still a little shocked that they filled up all of those reserved 10 club seats.
The demand must have been huge even with a GA pit this time and there must be a ton of PJ Premium seats being
held back. But I guess that's what makes it a lottery. I don't really feel like traveling with all the expense for just 1 show
and don't have the patience to battle the F2F warriors so I will probably just dump the tickets this time around.
9/02/18 Boston, 9/04/18 Boston, 9/11/22 New York, 9/16/22 Nashville, 9/22/22 Denver, 8/31/23, St. Paul, 9/2/23 St. Paul, 9/18/23 Austin, 9/19/23 Austin
I can't keep doing this. The system worked as it should have and as it was intended to. That worked out great for some of us, and poorly for others. Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints). But there's no conspiracy at work here. I don't know what else to say to people who believe that there is.
1998: Mansfield, MA (9/15)
2000: Virginia Beach, VA (8/3), Saratoga Springs, NY (8/27), Mansfield, MA (8/29 and 8/30)
2003: Albany, NY (4/29), Mansfield, MA (7/2 and 7/3), New York, NY (7/8 and 7/9)
2006: Hartford, CT (5/23), Boston, MA (5/24 and 5/25)
2009: Chicago, IL (8/23 and 8/24)
2010: Boston, MA (5/17)
2011: East Troy, WI (9/3 and 9/4)
2013: Worcester, MA (10/15 and 10/16), Hartford, CT (10/25)
2016: Boston, MA (8/5 and 8/7)
2018: Boston, MA (9/2 and 9/4)
2022: Camden, NJ (9/14)
2024: Boston, MA (9/15 and 9/17)
2010: Newark 5/18 MSG 5/20-21 2011: PJ20 9/3-4 2012: Made In America 9/2
2013: Brooklyn 10/18-19 Philly 10/21-22 Hartford 10/25 2014: ACL10/12
2015: NYC 9/23 2016: Tampa 4/11 Philly 4/28-29 MSG 5/1-2 Fenway 8/5+8/7
2017: RRHoF 4/7 2018: Fenway 9/2+9/4 2021: Sea Hear Now 9/18
2022: MSG 9/11 2024: MSG 9/3-4 Philly 9/7+9/9 Fenway 9/15+9/17
2003: 4/29 Albany, 5/2 Buffalo, 7/9 MSG 2 2006: 5/12 Albany, 6/3 East Rutherford 2
2008: 6/27 Hartford 2009: 10/27 Philadelphia 1 2010: 5/15 Hartford, 5/21 MSG 2
2013: 10/15 Worcester 1, 10/25 Hartford 2014: 10/1 Cincinnati
2018: 9/2 Fenway 1
2024: 9/3 MSG 1, 9/4 MSG 2 , 9/15 Fenway 1, 9/17 Fenway 2