Official 2024 Ticket Lottery Results Thread

SHZA

cutz said:

PJNB said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

scurtis said:

My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.

It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many. 

100%. All or nothing. 

No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.

Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.

When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen. 

Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.

Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.

I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen. 

Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much. 

Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more. 

400/5000 

8% chance at getting GA for night 1. 

Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 = 

0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA. 

But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.

Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again. 

750/5000= 0.15 

So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds. 


I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for. 

Want to do the math on that?

WOW! ( GA 9 out of 11)
Think you'd have a better chance of getting struck by lightning...............TWICE!

Or getting back to back royal flushes in poker 

Lerxst1992

bootleg said:

southp said:

I’d like to see seniority used at least to get you one or two guaranteed show. 

Something like this..

30+ years guaranteed 3 shows
20+ years 2 shows 
10+ years 1 show 

Always liked the idea in a lotto type system that more years of seniority gets you more chances in the lotto.  So 30 years might get you 3 entries.  20 gets you 2 etc..  so it would be a weighted lotto.  Same concept in a priority system.  30 years you get to pick 3 shows as your priority etc…

Years ago, PJ was a much tougher ticket than the Foos. Recent years it’s the opposite. Penalizing newer fans has its cost.

Ledbetterdays

It would just be nice if they could make sure if at all possible everyone who wanted to see a show got tickets for at least one show.

SHZA

Eddieredder said:

Yeah. Just not a big conspiracy guy. There never seems to be one when it works out for ya. Tends to be an awful lot when you lose. Just doesn't add up in the end. 

Doesn't have to be a conspiracy. Could just be simple incompetence. Their track record doesn't instill confidence -- they had to do two redraws last year due to mistakes. It's not implausible that they screwed something up this time that affected the randomness of the drawings. Without some transparency, there's no way to know that this system worked as it was supposed to or was intended to.

SHZA

seanwon said:

EBowie said:

Bottom line is way too many cases of one account getting multiple GAs while another account gets zero.  I understand it’s complicated and nearly impossible to make a perfect system.  But whatever algorithms are being used to distribute tickets are producing lopsided results.

No, they aren't. Statistics don't work that way.  If you flip a coin and hit heads 5 times in a row, that doesn't mean you are more likely to hit tails the 6th time. It is still 50/50.  If we both put in for GA for 6 shows, and you win the first 5 and I don't, that doesn't mean I have a better shot at hitting number 6. We both have the same chance.  Sucks, but that is how it is.

You're ignoring how unlikely it was for you to win the first 5 and the other person to lose the first 5 before you get to #6. 

Eddieredder

SHZA said:

Eddieredder said:

Yeah. Just not a big conspiracy guy. There never seems to be one when it works out for ya. Tends to be an awful lot when you lose. Just doesn't add up in the end. 

Doesn't have to be a conspiracy. Could just be simple incompetence. Their track record doesn't instill confidence -- they had to do two redraws last year due to mistakes. Without some transparency, there's no way to know that this system worked as it was supposed to or was intended to.

Very well could be. But its generally the same every time. Lots of sour grapes. Its like blaming the referee EVERY time your team loses. Losing sucks. Some people can cope better than others. 

jagerweis

foodshop65 said:

wife and i scored for night2 MSG. looking to trade for night 1. thanks

Sent you a PM

gjv76

LA, P1 both nights
Boston, GA both nights.

Back in GA for the first time in 8 years!

SL23296

Boston, got GA both nights 
NYC, shut out:(

mookieb14

Happy for those that won.  Feel for those that lost. 

Dropping priority because of fan feedback saying it was confusing was the biggest game changer this time around.  

It is assumed that the lottery plays out as ga/seats gets picked first.  Once the ga are accounted for then they go thru seats to assign those with the assumption that the entries that lost ga are included in the same pool as those that selected just seats as well.  Once the seats are gone lottery for that show is done.  I believe that’s the way most assume this process is done.  

I wish 10club would lay out this is exactly how the lottery is ran.  There are too many variables in play.  I will agree it does seem odd the number of multi hit members in ga for shows in same city.  Something seems off there.  Could just be incredible luck for all those members but still odd.  Obviously don’t have the data or lottery methods to fully assess and never will

CG658530

IDK how grown-ass people can't seem to understand how, like, 4th grade statistics work, but here we are...every time...with every fucking lottery...

darwinstheory

PJNB said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

scurtis said:

My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.

It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many. 

100%. All or nothing. 

No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.

Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.

When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen. 

Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.

Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.

I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen. 

Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much. 

Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more. 

400/5000 

8% chance at getting GA for night 1. 

Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 = 

0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA. 

But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.

Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again. 

750/5000= 0.15 

So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds. 


I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for. 

Want to do the math on that?

Thanks J! I quit following this thread after the Wrigley 2 rollout. Then without reading further and without social media, I posted a poll based on what i experienced through the Wrigley 2 drawing. Essentially, it sums up your post. Something fishy happened with today's drawing. The numbers are simply beyond reasonable odds. I'm glad others seem to suspect something odd occurred as well. Though I'm sure it will serve no purpose.

UmphreysJam34

Anyone else still waiting to hear on Missoula? I figured this was close to automatic as in 2018 I put GA as Priority 8 and was selected.

BloodMeridian80

Did anyone who put in for both nights at a 2 city stop do better at show 2 than show 1? For example, P1 N1 and GA N2? Or no ticket N1 and gotta ticket N2?

CG658530

BloodMeridian80 said:

Did anyone who put in for both nights at a 2 city stop do better at show 2 than show 1? For example, P1 N1 and GA N2? Or no ticket N1 and gotta ticket N2?

My parents (one account) put in for both Philly shows and got nothing for night 1, and P1 for night 2. Same for me in Boston. 

MJ178168

mookieb14 said:

Happy for those that won.  Feel for those that lost. 

Dropping priority because of fan feedback saying it was confusing was the biggest game changer this time around.  

It is assumed that the lottery plays out as ga/seats gets picked first.  Once the ga are accounted for then they go thru seats to assign those with the assumption that the entries that lost ga are included in the same pool as those that selected just seats as well.  Once the seats are gone lottery for that show is done.  I believe that’s the way most assume this process is done.  

I wish 10club would lay out this is exactly how the lottery is ran.  There are too many variables in play.  I will agree it does seem odd the number of multi hit members in ga for shows in same city.  Something seems off there.  Could just be incredible luck for all those members but still odd.  Obviously don’t have the data or lottery methods to fully assess and never will

I think the biggest issue this time around that most can agree on is the lack of priority.  I think they need to bring that back.

I need the light

I went 6/6 for Vegas, Wrigley and Philly. All reserved, half P1 and half P2. I put in for all options but am totally fine with seats. Just happy to be in the building. Super grateful.

I’ve been shut out of many 10C lotteries in the past but always managed to find tickets at some point.

At the risk of being crucified by the upset people here hoping for more draws tomorrow and Wednesday, is it possible that they did the complete lottery today but gave themselves a 3 day window to buy time in case of a major screw up like last year? That way they would have 2 days to fix it without pushing back the Ticketmaster sale. Could be way off but just a theory. Hope everyone gets tickets some way or another to where they want. 

bootleg

Lerxst1992 said:

BloodMeridian80 said:

BF25394 said:

PJNB said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

scurtis said:

My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.

It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many. 

100%. All or nothing. 

No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.

Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.

When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen. 

Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.

Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.

I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen. 

Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much. 

Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more. 

400/5000 

8% chance at getting GA for night 1. 

Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 = 

0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA. 

But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.

Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again. 

750/5000= 0.15 

So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds. 


I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for. 

Want to do the math on that?

Alternative systems might be better (though they would likely generate different complaints). 

I agree with much of what you are saying, and there will always be complaints, but a system that allows for someone to get 4 GA's out of 5 or 6 shows and another person gets 0 GA's, or even 0-1 tickets total, is a deeply flawed system (in terms of equity) and no system prior to this has been this unequal.

They found a new way to screw New Yorkers even more by not having priority, because some couldn’t understand a simple ranking system is one of the worse excuses I’ve heard for anything.

Based on a lot of comments many couldn’t understand this simpler version either.  Most of the time it comes down to they just flat out didn’t try to read a single thing.  See it all day every day at work too.

Gludfssr

The problem with this setup is that the lottery is not actually based on the shows but mainly on the full request. Had it been based on the shows than everybody that sent in a request for say NY #1 would have there name in the drawing, and so on for each show. Than everybody would have a chance for each show. What is happening is let’s say they pick 1,000 requests then they fill them from those people if more tickets are still available for certain shows they keep picking more requests until the rest of the available shows are filled. This is why the people who picked the most amount of shows had better odds of getting more if and only if there request ticket was picked in the 1st round.
So the 1st request ticket picked will get everything they want, and so on. 

LukinTimer

Okay, so quick question.... this applies only to cities with two shows in the US... is there anyone who put in for both nights, but only got GA for one night? 

Just curious.