There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
trump was by far the weakest POS that office has ever seen. calling biden weak when he's getting shit done is laughable. i don't see other world leaders gathering together and laughing at him. or laughing at him at a world conference. gimme a break.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years. LOL.
I wasn't unhappy. The man was an idiot but I wasn't unhappy.
With surging prices now I am unhappy but I understand that it isn't Bidens fault.
trump was by far the weakest POS that office has ever seen. calling biden weak when he's getting shit done is laughable. i don't see other world leaders gathering together and laughing at him. or laughing at him at a world conference. gimme a break.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years. LOL.
I wasn't unhappy. The man was an idiot but I wasn't unhappy.
With surging prices now I am unhappy but I understand that it isn't Bidens fault.
Lol....I'm just using our Trump supporters logic regarding approval ratings. Seeing as how Joe's lowest is near Trump's highest, by his logic America was much more unhappy under Trump.
trump was by far the weakest POS that office has ever seen. calling biden weak when he's getting shit done is laughable. i don't see other world leaders gathering together and laughing at him. or laughing at him at a world conference. gimme a break.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years. LOL.
I wasn't unhappy. The man was an idiot but I wasn't unhappy.
With surging prices now I am unhappy but I understand that it isn't Bidens fault.
Well that's really the thing. Americans are pretty basic people. The perceived state of the economy is a leading indicator of a president's approval. And right now, even though jobs are aplenty, GDP is forecasted to by 4% (we haven't hit that in years! ) and the market is at a record, the inflation is weighing down consumer sentiment. And the key factor in that sentiment is gas prices. So I think once these get under control, which will happen once OPEC pumping meets its commitments, you'll see sentiment rise. The question for D's is will this happen soon enough to save them in the mid terms.
I don't know. I think too much opinion is swayed by social media and entertainment news. no one cares about facts anymore. the second biden is looking good, fox will come up with some other red herring to drive hysteria up again.
I think the days of a presidential approval rating being consistently above 50% are over.
"Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk" -EV 8/14/93
I don't know. I think too much opinion is swayed by social media and entertainment news. no one cares about facts anymore. the second biden is looking good, fox will come up with some other red herring to drive hysteria up again.
I think the days of a presidential approval rating being consistently above 50% are over.
This could be true. If you look at the Foxnews home page, it's barely news. it's all opinion and nonsense.
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
I tried having this convo w someone on FB and he is convinced that the gas prices were because of the stop order on drilling and the pipeline. I mapped out the timeline for him and when it was dirt cheap w Russia overflooding the market and then OPEC clamping down and not producing as much. They would have none of it.
I even offered them to do their own google search on oil prices and reasons for the price increase. Their reply? I worked in oil industry for years. I know what's going on.
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
I tried having this convo w someone on FB and he is convinced that the gas prices were because of the stop order on drilling and the pipeline. I mapped out the timeline for him and when it was dirt cheap w Russia overflooding the market and then OPEC clamping down and not producing as much. They would have none of it.
I even offered them to do their own google search on oil prices and reasons for the price increase. Their reply? I worked in oil industry for years. I know what's going on.
Good for you...
clerking at a gas station is working in the oil industry?
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
I tried having this convo w someone on FB and he is convinced that the gas prices were because of the stop order on drilling and the pipeline. I mapped out the timeline for him and when it was dirt cheap w Russia overflooding the market and then OPEC clamping down and not producing as much. They would have none of it.
I even offered them to do their own google search on oil prices and reasons for the price increase. Their reply? I worked in oil industry for years. I know what's going on.
Good for you...
clerking at a gas station is working in the oil industry?
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
I tried having this convo w someone on FB and he is convinced that the gas prices were because of the stop order on drilling and the pipeline. I mapped out the timeline for him and when it was dirt cheap w Russia overflooding the market and then OPEC clamping down and not producing as much. They would have none of it.
I even offered them to do their own google search on oil prices and reasons for the price increase. Their reply? I worked in oil industry for years. I know what's going on.
Good for you...
clerking at a gas station is working in the oil industry?
HAHAHAHA!! No shit. Someone said this to me years ago. Asked them what they do for a living. They replied "a petroleum engineer". I looked back at him because I knew he was only 19 and said "Very clever, you pump gas for a living."
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
I tried having this convo w someone on FB and he is convinced that the gas prices were because of the stop order on drilling and the pipeline. I mapped out the timeline for him and when it was dirt cheap w Russia overflooding the market and then OPEC clamping down and not producing as much. They would have none of it.
I even offered them to do their own google search on oil prices and reasons for the price increase. Their reply? I worked in oil industry for years. I know what's going on.
Good for you...
clerking at a gas station is working in the oil industry?
That's right. Think about how much of your hard-earned money has gone to a band fronted by former Oil Tycoon Eddie Vedder. Sure, you can take the man out of the oil industry, but you can never take the oil industry entirely out of the man.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
I tried having this convo w someone on FB and he is convinced that the gas prices were because of the stop order on drilling and the pipeline. I mapped out the timeline for him and when it was dirt cheap w Russia overflooding the market and then OPEC clamping down and not producing as much. They would have none of it.
I even offered them to do their own google search on oil prices and reasons for the price increase. Their reply? I worked in oil industry for years. I know what's going on.
Good for you...
clerking at a gas station is working in the oil industry?
That's right. Think about how much of your hard-earned money has gone to a band fronted by former Oil Tycoon Eddie Vedder. Sure, you can take the man out of the oil industry, but you can never take the oil industry entirely out of the man.
it was his secret to the wet look in the 90's.
"Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk" -EV 8/14/93
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
I’d be interested in your explanation of the deficit and it’s effect on inflation. Please and thank you.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
I’d be interested in your explanation of the deficit and it’s effect on inflation. Please and thank you.
"One of the primary dangers of a budget deficit is inflation,
which is the continuous increase of price levels. In the United States,
a budget deficit can cause the Federal Reserve to release more money
into the economy, which feeds inflation."
Biden
said the BBB plan will be paid for. Studies are now telling us that it
won't be fully paid for. Biden lied when he said that this money is
free. We can not afford to continue to increase the deficit president after president. Government is notorious for over promising and under delivering. One of these days, this is going to bite us all in the ass. Inflation is at a 40 year high. The last thing we should be doing is adding to the deficit.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
I’d be interested in your explanation of the deficit and it’s effect on inflation. Please and thank you.
"One of the primary dangers of a budget deficit is inflation,
which is the continuous increase of price levels. In the United States,
a budget deficit can cause the Federal Reserve to release more money
into the economy, which feeds inflation."
Biden
said the BBB plan will be paid for. Studies are now telling us that it
won't be fully paid for. Biden lied when he said that this money is
free. We can not afford to continue to increase the deficit president after president. Government is notorious for over promising and under delivering. One of these days, this is going to bite us all in the ass. Inflation is at a 40 year high. The last thing we should be doing is adding to the deficit.
And that’s been said for 40 years. “It can cause” is not the same as saying it “will cause” and the fed reserve “releasing more money into the economy” is not the same as the government, Congress, passing a spending bill. Two completely different things entirely.
When was the last month, quarter or year where inflation was 0%, so concerned about the continuous increase in prices you seem to be?
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
I’d be interested in your explanation of the deficit and it’s effect on inflation. Please and thank you.
"One of the primary dangers of a budget deficit is inflation,
which is the continuous increase of price levels. In the United States,
a budget deficit can cause the Federal Reserve to release more money
into the economy, which feeds inflation."
Biden
said the BBB plan will be paid for. Studies are now telling us that it
won't be fully paid for. Biden lied when he said that this money is
free. We can not afford to continue to increase the deficit president after president. Government is notorious for over promising and under delivering. One of these days, this is going to bite us all in the ass. Inflation is at a 40 year high. The last thing we should be doing is adding to the deficit.
I agree. Raise corporate taxes to 26%. This is popular even in the business community. Raise long term capital gains to match the marginal rates of income. Create incentives to re-patriot overseas cash. Repeal the Trump tax cuts which did ZERO for GDP.
Do you agree with these solutions to our 23 year budget deficit that you believe just now caused inflation?
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
We all knew, and joked here, that as of Jan 21, deficits would suddenly matter again.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
We all knew, and joked here, that as of Jan 21, deficits would suddenly matter again.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
We all knew, and joked here, that as of Jan 21, deficits would suddenly matter again.
As well as polls.
And brushing aside the fact that democrats somehow figured out a way to steal the election away from Trump when out of power, yet couldn't rig it in their favor this year despite controlling most facets of government. The list goes on and on.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
We all knew, and joked here, that as of Jan 21, deficits would suddenly matter again.
As well as polls.
And brushing aside the fact that democrats somehow figured out a way to steal the election away from Trump when out of power, yet couldn't rig it in their favor this year despite controlling most facets of government. The list goes now.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
don't forget how people seem to get frustrated how dems are not doing the hero worship of biden the way they do trump. they act as if our main objective is and should be to "protect the almighty biden".
i do not love joe biden. he is just a man trying to do a job. there is no hero worship from dems because we expect from our leaders things that they cannot get done on their own. that is what keeps the democratic fire lit so we do not become a cult of personality like the gop.
the fact is democrats and republicans are two very different types of people and they expect different things from their party leaders.
"You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry." - Lincoln
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
If it is a bad or negative, or illegal thing the republican politicians and their constituents don't care and the politician is put on pedestal. If a Democrat does or says a bad or negative or illegal thing than he or she must be removed from office immediately.
I also don’t recall any such outrage about not tolerating catholic priests or evangelical child molesters and how they should be executed in the street but it certainly was expressed about Rosenbaum and his threat to 7 billion people. Reason. Easy to follow and understand.
There's some proof of world leaders laughing at Biden and his usual gaffes. Gimme a break.
Lol...looks like a group of friends sharing a laugh to me. Here is Trump literally being laughed at on the national stage at the UN https://youtu.be/-z4y8OJxlK8
I apologize. I thought this thread was about Biden, not Trump.
You can talk Biden up all day long but the American people aren't happy with him and that is getting worse day by day.
it is about biden, but when you complain about shit about biden but were silent during trump about exact same things (that were actually applicable with trump), pointing out the hypocrisy is not making this about trump, it's pointing out inconsistencies.
You don't know what you're talking about. Just because I didn't come to a Pearl Jam message board and complain about Trump does not mean that I wasn't bringing up the issues I have with Trump. Trump is gone. It's time to discuss the current president and get over the last one.
things don't magically start from scratch in politics. the old guy is relevant to the new guy. always has been. but i guess it's time to "move on" when you just want to bitch.
At some point the old is no longer relevant to the new guy but TDS has a grip on too many people. Let it go Elsa
Tell that to the old guy who refuses to admit he lost, continues to do whatever he can to undermine the new guy, and is all but assured to be running again in 2024.
Sorry bud, I know the Trump comparisons are not favorable for you, but they are relevant and will absolutely continue. Get used to it.
Just as I know the Biden criticism isn't favorable for you but it's going to be a long 3 years. Hopefully they'll go better than the last 9 months but the fact of the matter is that America is not happy with the direction the country is headed. The BBB plan, if passed, is most likely going to increase inflation. Biden told us that the money used in the BBB is free but there are already studies showing that their numbers are incorrect. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions
Inflation is out of control and spending more money will only do harm. We need to get government spending under control and the BBB plan is not going to do us any favors. Biden should be very worried about spending more money when inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight. Biden may not have the direct ability to gas prices but what he does will affect the inflation issue.
again, his approval rating is higher than Trump's ever was. so this "america is not happy with where things are headed" is nonsense.
Gosh, just imagine how much more unhappy we all were the last four years.
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
President Donald Trump promised to reduce the national debt but instead increased it. It is now at its highest level relative to the U.S. economy
Examining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Source: U.S. Treasury (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Lena V. Groeger/ProPublica)
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
I've beenvery vocal about how Trump did a shitty job with the deficit not only here but in the real world so your logic is flawed. "Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!" What the fuck ever.
You've been very vocal? Really? Where? Can you search your comments and point where, exactly, you criticized Trump during his term (not just a casual critique after the fact to make it look like you're unbiased)? If you've "been very vocal" about it I am sure you can find plenty of posts, right?
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Legislation
2018-2027 Cost
2020-2029 Cost
2017-2029 Cost
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
$1.9 trillion
$1.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
$1.3 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
$420 billion
$190 billion
$445 billion
Other Legislation
$140 billion
$90 billion
$155 billion
Total
$3.8 trillion
$3.4 trillion
$4.1 trillion
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
I don't have time to go back through my posts. If you do, feel free and
have fun. Not only that, your logic is completely ass backwards. Sorry
to tell you but this is JUST a Pearl Jam message board. It has nothing
to do with the real world. When having conversations with my friends
that adore Trump, I've been
very vocal about how Trump should've done something about the deficit while he was president and even now that he is not president.
I didn't tell my life story on this message board either. Does that mean it didn't happen as well?
Here's the difference between me and most people on this site. I can admit the shitty things that Trump did and does. For some reason, many people on this site are Biden sycophants and can't admit to anything he does wrong.
You aren't even arguing against my point about adding to the deficit and the effect it will have on inflation. Once again, you only want to argue about what I've posted in the past and protect your almighty Biden at all costs.
"I don't have time..." "It's just a Pearl Jam message board..." "I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
don't forget how people seem to get frustrated how dems are not doing the hero worship of biden the way they do trump. they act as if our main objective is and should be to "protect the almighty biden".
i do not love joe biden. he is just a man trying to do a job. there is no hero worship from dems because we expect from our leaders things that they cannot get done on their own. that is what keeps the democratic fire lit so we do not become a cult of personality like the gop.
the fact is democrats and republicans are two very different types of people and they expect different things from their party leaders.
Yeah, I don’t like Biden one f’ing bit, but he’s at least trying to do his job.
I wonder where we would be just in regards to the pandemic had Trump won. There wouldn’t be any vaccine mandates, I feel confident in that much.
Comments
Hey look! Another "conservative" who cares about our debt again!
https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump
Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
by Allan Sloan, ProPublica, and Cezary Podkul for ProPublica
Jan. 14, 5 a.m. ESTExamining the News
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
This story was co-published with The Washington Post.
One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.
The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
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The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.
The National Debt Increased Under Trump Despite His Promise to Reduce It
Daily total national debt from 2009 to present.
Economists agree that we needed massive deficit spending during the COVID-19 crisis to ward off an economic cataclysm, but federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels. By the Trump administration’s own description, the pre-pandemic national debt level was already a “crisis” and a “grave threat.”
The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error.
Our national debt has reached immense levels relative to our economy, nearly as high as it was at the end of World War II. But unlike 75 years ago, the massive financial overhang from Medicare and Social Security will make it dramatically more difficult to dig ourselves out of the debt ditch.
The Debt to GDP Ratio Is the Highest It's Been Since World War II
Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product since 1900.
Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.
After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”
Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”
That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.
The tariffs did bring in additional revenue. In fiscal 2019, they netted about $71 billion, up about $36 billion from President Barack Obama’s last year in office. But although $36 billion is a lot of money, it’s less than 1/750th of the national debt. That $36 billion could have covered a bit more than three weeks of interest on the national debt — that is, had Trump not unilaterally decided to send a chunk of the tariff revenue to farmers affected by his trade wars. Businesses that struggled as a result of the tariffs also paid fewer taxes, offsetting some of the increased tariff revenue.
By early 2019, the national debt had climbed to $22 trillion. Trump’s budget proposal for 2020 called it a “grave threat to our economic and societal prosperity” and asserted that the U.S. was experiencing a “national debt crisis.” However, that same budget proposal included substantial growth in the national debt.
By the end of 2019, the debt had risen to $23.2 trillion and more federal officials were sounding the alarm. “Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project — nor, in the past century, has it experienced large deficits for as long as we project,” Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, said in January 2020.
Weeks later, COVID-19 erupted and made the financial situation far worse. As of Dec. 31, 2020, the national debt had jumped to $27.75 trillion, up 39% from $19.95 trillion when Trump was sworn in. The government ended its 2020 fiscal year with the portion of the national debt owed to investors, the metric favored by the CBO, at around 100% of GDP. The CBO had predicted less than a year earlier that it would take until 2030 to reach that approximate level of debt. Including the trillions owed to various governmental trust funds, the total debt is now about 130% of GDP.
Normally, this is where we’d give you Trump’s version of events. But we couldn’t get anyone to give us Trump’s side. Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, referred us to the Office of Management and Budget, which is a branch of the White House.
OMB didn’t respond to our requests. The Treasury directed us to comments made by OMB director Russell Vought in October, in which he predicted that as the pandemic eases and economic growth rebounds, the “fiscal picture” will improve. The OMB blamed legislators for deficits when Trump submitted his proposed 2021 budget: “Unfortunately, the Congress continues to reject any efforts to restrain spending. Instead, they have greatly contributed to the continued ballooning of Federal debt and deficits, putting the Nation’s fiscal future at risk.”
Still, the deficit growth under Trump has been historic. Steuerle, of the Tax Policy Center, has done a comparison of every American president using a metric called the “primary deficit.” It’s defined as the deficit minus interest costs, because interest is the only budget expense that presidents and Congress can’t control unless they want to do the unthinkable and default on the debt. Steuerle examined the records of 45 presidents to see how the primary deficit had shrunk or grown relative to the size of the economy between the first and final years of each president’s administration.
Trump had the third-biggest primary deficit growth, 5.2% of GDP, behind only George W. Bush (11.7%) and Abraham Lincoln (9.4%). Bush, of course, not only passed a big tax cut, as Trump has, but also launched two wars, which greatly inflated the defense budget. Lincoln had to pay for the Civil War. By contrast, Trump’s wars have been almost entirely of the political variety.
Our national debt is now at its highest level relative to our economy since the end of World War II. After the war ended, the extraordinary military expenses disappeared, a postwar recovery began and the debt began to fall rapidly relative to the size of the economy.
But that’s not going to happen this time. When World War II ended 75 years ago, Social Security was in its infancy and Medicare didn’t exist. Today, many of our biggest and most rapidly growing expenses, especially Social Security and Medicare, are baked into the budget because of our nation’s aging population. These outlays are slated to rise sharply. Steuerle recently calculated that Social Security, health care and interest costs are projected to absorb 122% of the total growth in federal revenues from 2019 to 2030.
What’s more, our investment in the future — things like research and development, education, infrastructure, workforce training and such — is declining as a proportion of the budget. OMB data shows that in 1970, mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare, but not including interest on the debt) and investment each made up around 30% of total federal spending. But as of 2019, the most recent available year, mandatory spending had doubled to around 61% of total federal spending while investment fell by more than half, to around 12.5%.
Mandatory Spending Outstrips Investment in the Future
Mandatory and investment spending as a percentage of total U.S. government spending from 1970 to 2019. Mandatory (also known as nondiscretionary) spending includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, while investment includes infrastructure, research and development, education and training.
Spending more and more on past promises and shrinking the proportion of spending for the future doesn’t bode well for our kids and grandkids. Had Trump done what he said he’d do and paid off part of the national debt before COVID-19 struck rather than adding significantly to the debt, the situation would be considerably less dire. And had Trump done a better job of coping with COVID-19, the economic and human costs would’ve been greatly reduced.
In addition to forcing us to reduce the proportion of the budget spent on the future to help pay for the past, there’s a second reason that huge and growing budget deficits matter: interest costs.
Bigger debt ultimately means bigger interest costs, even in an era when the Federal Reserve has forced down Treasury rates to ultralow levels. The government’s interest cost (including interest paid to government trust funds) was around $523 billion in the 2020 fiscal year. That outstrips all spending on education, employment training, research and social services, Treasury data shows.
Interest costs are way below where they’d be if the Fed hadn’t forced rates down to try to stimulate the economy and mitigate the impact of the pandemic. One-year Treasury securities cost taxpayers a minuscule 0.10% in interest at year-end, down from 1.59% at the end of 2019. The 10-year Treasury rate was 0.93%, down from 1.92%.
In late December, the Fed reported boosting its Treasury holdings by more than $2 trillion from a year earlier. The increase is primarily in longer-term securities. That has kept the federal government from having to raise trillions of dollars in the capital markets, and therefore has kept longer-term interest rates way below where they would otherwise be.
But unless something changes, even the Fed’s promise to keep interest rates near current levels for several years won’t fend off future problems. Most of the government’s borrowing to fund pandemic relief has been shorter-term borrowing that will have to be refinanced in the coming years. If rates rise, so will the government’s interest expense.
Even with rates where they are, interest on the debt is already going to be the fastest-growing budget category this decade, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks the issue. Annual net interest costs are projected to double in 10 years and grow so large beyond 2030 that interest will become a driving factor in annual deficit growth, according to Peterson estimates.
Listen to what CBO Director Swagel had to say on the subject in a report to congressional Republicans in December: “Although the current low interest rates indicate that the debt is manageable for now and that the United States is not facing an immediate fiscal crisis, in which interest rates abruptly escalated or other disruptions occurred, the risk and potential budgetary consequences of such a crisis become greater over time.”
In reporting on the rising number of newborns needlessly dying of syphilis, ProPublica reporter Caroline Chen identified a contributing factor: the CDC’s funding structure, which is influenced by both politics and shifts in public attention.
Trump was asked about this risk during a virtual discussion with the Economic Club of New York last October. “If we have another stimulus bill out of Congress, are you worried that the entire amount of federal debt will be too large for us to pay off in a sensible way?” asked David Rubenstein, a private equity executive.
Trump answered by falsely claiming that the U.S. was starting to pay off the national debt before the pandemic, and he claimed that future economic growth would let it do so. “I think you’re going to see tremendous growth, David, and the growth is going to get it done,” Trump said.
Two months later, when Congress finally approved $900 billion of economic stimulus that is being financed with debt, Trump challenged Congress to spend — and borrow — even more. Then he went golfing.
With surging prices now I am unhappy but I understand that it isn't Bidens fault.
I think the days of a presidential approval rating being consistently above 50% are over.
-EV 8/14/93
Here's more evidence of your R friends lack of information. This is the US field production report. You will see that drilling fell off the cliff in Feb 2020. That's because the world stopped. Oil prices sank, below the shut down price for many drilling operations. And it 2021, you can see the trend line is up. We are drilling more in 2021 than we did in 2020. But the ramp up is slow. The most we ever produced was 13M barrels per day, according to this data. We are at 11 and change right now. We consumed 18MM per day during the pandemic. That is not energy independent.
@static111 - I don't think that drillers are killing their fields to punish Biden. They are not irrational. They can rail against him politically while still earning $82 a barrel. This is mostly about OPEC and their slow ramp up. .
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
I even offered them to do their own google search on oil prices and reasons for the price increase. Their reply? I worked in oil industry for years. I know what's going on.
Good for you...
clerking at a gas station is working in the oil industry?
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
The crowd got a laugh out of that.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
-EV 8/14/93
For example: you are making quite a fuss about the billions this bill will add to the deficit. I think it's like 200-300 billion or so? If you can point me to your outrage over Trump's tax cuts for the rich, which did absolutely nothing for economy, and added 2 trillion to the debt alone, I'll believe you. Otherwise....it's just tough to take you seriously.
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/president-trumps-4-trillion-debt-increase
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President Trump’s $4 Trillion Debt Increase
If the recent budget deal is signed into law, it will be the third major piece of deficit-financed legislation in President Trump's term. In total, we estimate legislation signed by the President will have added $4.1 trillion to the debt between 2017 and 2029. Over a traditional ten-year budget window, the President will have added $3.4 to $3.8 trillion to the debt. The source of the debt expansion is split relatively evenly between tax and spending policy.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the single largest contributor to the $4.1 trillion figure, increasing debt by $1.8 trillion through 2029 (more than the entire cost is through 2027). This number could easily climb higher if lawmakers extend the individual tax cuts that are set to expire after 2025, which would add another $1 trillion to the debt.
The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 was nearly as costly on an annual basis, adding nearly $450 billion to the debt due to its two-year nature. However, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 would effectively make the increases in the BBA 2018 permanent, and in doing so, add another $1.7 trillion to the debt through 2029.
Smaller pieces of legislation are responsible for nearly $150 billion of debt. This includes several different bills containing disaster relief or emergency spending and continued delays of three Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes, among other bills.
This analysis does not include the fiscal impact of many executive actions taken by the President, some which would increase deficits and others which would reduce them. It also assumes that temporary policies expire as scheduled.
If we evaluate the debt added over the standard ten-year window the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) uses, the numbers are similar but slightly smaller. Using the ten-year period (2018-2027) employed in 2017, lawmakers have added $3.8 trillion to deficits. Using the current ten-year period of 2020-2029, the debt increase is $3.4 trillion. Debt added is lower in the later period because some of the laws, like the TCJA and 2018 BBA, had larger short-term, rather than long-term, costs.
Debt Added Since 2017 Over Different Periods
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
Importantly, the $4.1 trillion of debt signed into law by President Trump is on top of the $16.2 trillion we already owe and the $9.8 trillion we were projected to borrow over the next decade absent these proposals. It would bring debt to about 97 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2029, compared to 84 percent if no debt-increasing legislation had been passed.
To avoid the huge run-up in debt that is projected in the coming decades, lawmakers should reject unpaid-for spending increases, pay for the tax bill, and address the rising costs and looming insolvency of our nation’s largest health and retirement programs.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
When was the last month, quarter or year where inflation was 0%, so concerned about the continuous increase in prices you seem to be?
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Do you agree with these solutions to our 23 year budget deficit that you believe just now caused inflation?
"It's just a Pearl Jam message board..."
"I've been very vocal with my friends..."
Sorry dude. That's all bullshit. You post here often. I don't remember you ever complaining about Trump racking up a record amount of debt. Yet here you are, quite often, bitching and complaining about Biden racking up a smaller amount of debt.
This is the hypocrisy of the republican party personified.
It's all hypocritical, fantastical, bullshit.
i do not love joe biden. he is just a man trying to do a job. there is no hero worship from dems because we expect from our leaders things that they cannot get done on their own. that is what keeps the democratic fire lit so we do not become a cult of personality like the gop.
the fact is democrats and republicans are two very different types of people and they expect different things from their party leaders.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
If a Democrat does or says a bad or negative or illegal thing than he or she must be removed from office immediately.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©