Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Aggressively polarized electorate + Unfamiliar voting process + General lack of competence at state and local election boards = Hold on to your hats
my county board is on the ball
There are good ones, for sure. I've done election reporting twice in the past 4 years and will again this fall. It is all over the board. Most are fairly competent, but there is more incompetence than you would expect. Enough that I worry people will mistake incompetence for malice.
Aggressively polarized electorate + Unfamiliar voting process + General lack of competence at state and local election boards = Hold on to your hats
my county board is on the ball
There are good ones, for sure. I've done election reporting twice in the past 4 years and will again this fall. It is all over the board. Most are fairly competent, but there is more incompetence than you would expect. Enough that I worry people will mistake incompetence for malice.
Or, as always, use one instance as representative of all.
Aggressively polarized electorate + Unfamiliar voting process + General lack of competence at state and local election boards = Hold on to your hats
my county board is on the ball
There are good ones, for sure. I've done election reporting twice in the past 4 years and will again this fall. It is all over the board. Most are fairly competent, but there is more incompetence than you would expect. Enough that I worry people will mistake incompetence for malice.
Or, as always, use one instance as representative of all.
When I'm reporting, I'm on a Discord channel hearing about multiple counties and multiple states. When I leave the site I worked and get home, I scrape websites and/or call municipalities who haven't reported yet. It's not one instance.
If you have an interest in this stuff, these companies are always looking for election night staff. Decision Desk HQ and Edison, specifically. I don’t know if AP does seasonal hiring. It's illuminating to see how the sausage is made.
Aggressively polarized electorate + Unfamiliar voting process + General lack of competence at state and local election boards = Hold on to your hats
my county board is on the ball
There are good ones, for sure. I've done election reporting twice in the past 4 years and will again this fall. It is all over the board. Most are fairly competent, but there is more incompetence than you would expect. Enough that I worry people will mistake incompetence for malice.
Or, as always, use one instance as representative of all.
When I'm reporting, I'm on a Discord channel hearing about multiple counties and multiple states. When I leave the site I worked and get home, I scrape websites and/or call municipalities who haven't reported yet. It's not one instance.
I'm saying people or the media will have one story and apply it to the whole. Not talking about you specifically.
Aggressively polarized electorate + Unfamiliar voting process + General lack of competence at state and local election boards = Hold on to your hats
my county board is on the ball
There are good ones, for sure. I've done election reporting twice in the past 4 years and will again this fall. It is all over the board. Most are fairly competent, but there is more incompetence than you would expect. Enough that I worry people will mistake incompetence for malice.
Or, as always, use one instance as representative of all.
When I'm reporting, I'm on a Discord channel hearing about multiple counties and multiple states. When I leave the site I worked and get home, I scrape websites and/or call municipalities who haven't reported yet. It's not one instance.
I'm saying people or the media will have one story and apply it to the whole. Not talking about you specifically.
Ahhhhhhh...gotcha. My bad if I took that wrong. Yes, there will be all sorts of one-off examples of craziness and it's important to keep them in context.
Well it takes a special idiot for this Texas prediction to even be feasible, and Trump is that special idiot. For all his bragging about his approval rating within the GOP, it'd be a hilarious rebuke of him by Republicans if (when!) he loses Texas.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Biden is now polling better on the economy too....
We haven't really discussed Bidens economic plan he released last week. It's fundamentally... Buy American, but don't be a dick about it.
He would direct the govt to buy American first, without interfering in private business nor raising tariffs.
I liked his quote about climate change. Something to the effect of "When Trump thinks of Climate change he thinks of the word hoax.; When I think of climate change, I think of jobs."
HRC made a blunder about how coal is dead and never coming back 4 years ago. That's basically true but the way she said it turned a lot of working class people. This messaging is so much better.
Biden is now polling better on the economy too....
We haven't really discussed Bidens economic plan he released last week. It's fundamentally... Buy American, but don't be a dick about it.
He would direct the govt to buy American first, without interfering in private business nor raising tariffs.
I liked his quote about climate change. Something to the effect of "When Trump thinks of Climate change he thinks of the word hoax.; When I think of climate change, I think of jobs."
HRC made a blunder about how coal is dead and never coming back 4 years ago. That's basically true but the way she said it turned a lot of working class people. This messaging is so much better.
Act like Biden is 3 points down? Hell, act like he's 13 points down.
There are two ways to read both the state and national polling that shows President Trump significantly behind former vice president Joe Biden. You can plausibly argue that the polls are more unreliable on a statewide basis than in 2016, so they’re all irrelevant. Alternatively, you can take the polls at face value and conclude we are heading for a blowout election. There is a case for each.
Recall in 2016 that the national polls were quite accurate (Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than two points), while the state polls, albeit some within the margin of error, gave the impression of a narrow but definitive Clinton win. There was much talk about a quiet base of Trump voters embarrassed to say they support him, but in fact, 80,000 votes going the other way would have made Clinton president. (I know. Don’t dwell.) This time around, there is reason to believe we will have all mail-in or heavily mail-in voting in many states. The access to those ballots and the propensity of various groups to use them might be different. In other words, defining “likely” voters is trickier than you think.
Moreover, the “Who knows?” interpretation of polls posits that lots can happen in four months, so Trump’s chances might improve. (That last part is beginning to fail the straight-face test, as Trump’s performance continues to deteriorate daily and the pandemic worsens.)
The alternative theory goes like this: Even if the polls are off, they cannot be that far off. Biden is winning nationally by an average of nearly 9 points (just today Economist-YouGov, a respected, nonpartisan poll, gives him a 9-point lead, and Quinnipiac shows him with a stunning 15-point lead). The big deficit for Trump tracks with his approval rating (one of the best indicators of an incumbent’s election percentage), which has dropped below 40 in several recent polls. Biden is also crushing it in swing states such as Pennsylvania (leading by an eye-popping 13 points in Monmouth’s most recent poll) and is competitive or slightly ahead in states no Democrat has thought competitive in the past decade or so (e.g., Arizona and Texas). Finally, polling for Senate seats shows a tilt toward Democrats even in red states (e.g., Montana and Arizona), giving support to the “blue tsunami” interpretation of the race.
Many Democratic operatives believe the second theory is right but are frankly spooked by 2016 and afraid to say it out loud. Campaigning 101 also says that you should tell your staff, donors and voters to think you are three points behind. The trauma of 2016 and fear of overconfidence have not dissipated. On the other side, Republicans face their own dilemma. At some point, they will have to decide whether they want to effectively give up on Trump. (Labor Day might be too late given the plethora of early voting, which starts, for example, on Sept. 19 in Michigan.) Donors will decide whether to throw money into a hopeless campaign; candidates for Senate and House will begin the ads arguing to not give Biden a “blank check.”
The safest answer would be something like this: If the election were held today, it would be a big win for Biden, and while Trump is unlikely to undergo a believable personality transformation and the coronavirus pandemic might possibly — if we are fortunate — be less terrible than now, it is also possible Trump has not hit rock bottom yet. In other words, act like Biden is three points down.
Biden is now polling better on the economy too....
We haven't really discussed Bidens economic plan he released last week. It's fundamentally... Buy American, but don't be a dick about it.
He would direct the govt to buy American first, without interfering in private business nor raising tariffs.
I liked his quote about climate change. Something to the effect of "When Trump thinks of Climate change he thinks of the word hoax.; When I think of climate change, I think of jobs."
HRC made a blunder about how coal is dead and never coming back 4 years ago. That's basically true but the way she said it turned a lot of working class people. This messaging is so much better.
Act like Biden is 3 points down? Hell, act like he's 13 points down.
There are two ways to read both the state and national polling that shows President Trump significantly behind former vice president Joe Biden. You can plausibly argue that the polls are more unreliable on a statewide basis than in 2016, so they’re all irrelevant. Alternatively, you can take the polls at face value and conclude we are heading for a blowout election. There is a case for each.
Recall in 2016 that the national polls were quite accurate (Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than two points), while the state polls, albeit some within the margin of error, gave the impression of a narrow but definitive Clinton win. There was much talk about a quiet base of Trump voters embarrassed to say they support him, but in fact, 80,000 votes going the other way would have made Clinton president. (I know. Don’t dwell.) This time around, there is reason to believe we will have all mail-in or heavily mail-in voting in many states. The access to those ballots and the propensity of various groups to use them might be different. In other words, defining “likely” voters is trickier than you think.
Moreover, the “Who knows?” interpretation of polls posits that lots can happen in four months, so Trump’s chances might improve. (That last part is beginning to fail the straight-face test, as Trump’s performance continues to deteriorate daily and the pandemic worsens.)
The alternative theory goes like this: Even if the polls are off, they cannot be that far off. Biden is winning nationally by an average of nearly 9 points (just today Economist-YouGov, a respected, nonpartisan poll, gives him a 9-point lead, and Quinnipiac shows him with a stunning 15-point lead). The big deficit for Trump tracks with his approval rating (one of the best indicators of an incumbent’s election percentage), which has dropped below 40 in several recent polls. Biden is also crushing it in swing states such as Pennsylvania (leading by an eye-popping 13 points in Monmouth’s most recent poll) and is competitive or slightly ahead in states no Democrat has thought competitive in the past decade or so (e.g., Arizona and Texas). Finally, polling for Senate seats shows a tilt toward Democrats even in red states (e.g., Montana and Arizona), giving support to the “blue tsunami” interpretation of the race.
Many Democratic operatives believe the second theory is right but are frankly spooked by 2016 and afraid to say it out loud. Campaigning 101 also says that you should tell your staff, donors and voters to think you are three points behind. The trauma of 2016 and fear of overconfidence have not dissipated. On the other side, Republicans face their own dilemma. At some point, they will have to decide whether they want to effectively give up on Trump. (Labor Day might be too late given the plethora of early voting, which starts, for example, on Sept. 19 in Michigan.) Donors will decide whether to throw money into a hopeless campaign; candidates for Senate and House will begin the ads arguing to not give Biden a “blank check.”
The safest answer would be something like this: If the election were held today, it would be a big win for Biden, and while Trump is unlikely to undergo a believable personality transformation and the coronavirus pandemic might possibly — if we are fortunate — be less terrible than now, it is also possible Trump has not hit rock bottom yet. In other words, act like Biden is three points down.
Comments
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
Great ad running in TX
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
And if I'm saying it's good, you know it's good.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/politics/fact-check-trump-biden-speech-rose-garden/index.html
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
In fairness, he has done more political good during his presidental run than trump has done in the last 6 months.
Good god. I was gonna post earlier that his lead was starting to narrow just a bit too. This and some others today put a stop to that...
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
He would direct the govt to buy American first, without interfering in private business nor raising tariffs.
HRC made a blunder about how coal is dead and never coming back 4 years ago. That's basically true but the way she said it turned a lot of working class people. This messaging is so much better.
There are two ways to read both the state and national polling that shows President Trump significantly behind former vice president Joe Biden. You can plausibly argue that the polls are more unreliable on a statewide basis than in 2016, so they’re all irrelevant. Alternatively, you can take the polls at face value and conclude we are heading for a blowout election. There is a case for each.
Recall in 2016 that the national polls were quite accurate (Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than two points), while the state polls, albeit some within the margin of error, gave the impression of a narrow but definitive Clinton win. There was much talk about a quiet base of Trump voters embarrassed to say they support him, but in fact, 80,000 votes going the other way would have made Clinton president. (I know. Don’t dwell.) This time around, there is reason to believe we will have all mail-in or heavily mail-in voting in many states. The access to those ballots and the propensity of various groups to use them might be different. In other words, defining “likely” voters is trickier than you think.
Moreover, the “Who knows?” interpretation of polls posits that lots can happen in four months, so Trump’s chances might improve. (That last part is beginning to fail the straight-face test, as Trump’s performance continues to deteriorate daily and the pandemic worsens.)
The alternative theory goes like this: Even if the polls are off, they cannot be that far off. Biden is winning nationally by an average of nearly 9 points (just today Economist-YouGov, a respected, nonpartisan poll, gives him a 9-point lead, and Quinnipiac shows him with a stunning 15-point lead). The big deficit for Trump tracks with his approval rating (one of the best indicators of an incumbent’s election percentage), which has dropped below 40 in several recent polls. Biden is also crushing it in swing states such as Pennsylvania (leading by an eye-popping 13 points in Monmouth’s most recent poll) and is competitive or slightly ahead in states no Democrat has thought competitive in the past decade or so (e.g., Arizona and Texas). Finally, polling for Senate seats shows a tilt toward Democrats even in red states (e.g., Montana and Arizona), giving support to the “blue tsunami” interpretation of the race.
Many Democratic operatives believe the second theory is right but are frankly spooked by 2016 and afraid to say it out loud. Campaigning 101 also says that you should tell your staff, donors and voters to think you are three points behind. The trauma of 2016 and fear of overconfidence have not dissipated. On the other side, Republicans face their own dilemma. At some point, they will have to decide whether they want to effectively give up on Trump. (Labor Day might be too late given the plethora of early voting, which starts, for example, on Sept. 19 in Michigan.) Donors will decide whether to throw money into a hopeless campaign; candidates for Senate and House will begin the ads arguing to not give Biden a “blank check.”
The safest answer would be something like this: If the election were held today, it would be a big win for Biden, and while Trump is unlikely to undergo a believable personality transformation and the coronavirus pandemic might possibly — if we are fortunate — be less terrible than now, it is also possible Trump has not hit rock bottom yet. In other words, act like Biden is three points down.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
There are no kings inside the gates of eden