The king of Trickle Down, Union Busting, pension stripping, contra starting, Proxy Latin American wars and really the beginning of the downsloping shit ride that led directly to Trump. Why anyone sees him as a hero is beyond me. Why the party that claims to be aligned with progressive liberal politics would think it is good to be aligned in anyway with that dirt bag is inconceivable.
They're just trying to woo Reagan Republicans by moving them away from Trump. From your perspective, I'd only be concerned if Biden was aligning himself with Reagan in crafting his platform. Otherwise if you can use that sort of message to get people to vote for you without compromising your agenda, that's a win.
After the dust settles from this election there is going to be a Gordian knot of Republican and Democrat interests intersecting and intertwining that is going to have to be swiftly cut. As soon as Biden wins, so called republicans against trump don’t get to stand around and get patted on the back as saviors of democracy and the Democratic Party. Last time a truly horrible Republican president left the office in disgrace(Nixon), the Democratic Party welcomed moderate republicans with open arms which helped drift the national discourse further right. Please let’s not do that again.
Assuming Biden wins, there will be a realignment of the parties in the next decade. I think some centrist Democrats could become republicans particularly if the culture wars end. So long as those continue, the Republicans will just shrink. But this may be good for someone like you because the center will probably be to the left of where it is today, and has been for the last 20 years.
One can only hope.
I'd rather be a Republican with no culture wars than a Democrat in today's environment. It's just awful.
The king of Trickle Down, Union Busting, pension stripping, contra starting, Proxy Latin American wars and really the beginning of the downsloping shit ride that led directly to Trump. Why anyone sees him as a hero is beyond me. Why the party that claims to be aligned with progressive liberal politics would think it is good to be aligned in anyway with that dirt bag is inconceivable.
They're just trying to woo Reagan Republicans by moving them away from Trump. From your perspective, I'd only be concerned if Biden was aligning himself with Reagan in crafting his platform. Otherwise if you can use that sort of message to get people to vote for you without compromising your agenda, that's a win.
After the dust settles from this election there is going to be a Gordian knot of Republican and Democrat interests intersecting and intertwining that is going to have to be swiftly cut. As soon as Biden wins, so called republicans against trump don’t get to stand around and get patted on the back as saviors of democracy and the Democratic Party. Last time a truly horrible Republican president left the office in disgrace(Nixon), the Democratic Party welcomed moderate republicans with open arms which helped drift the national discourse further right. Please let’s not do that again.
Assuming Biden wins, there will be a realignment of the parties in the next decade. I think some centrist Democrats could become republicans particularly if the culture wars end. So long as those continue, the Republicans will just shrink. But this may be good for someone like you because the center will probably be to the left of where it is today, and has been for the last 20 years.
One can only hope.
I'd rather be a Republican with no culture wars than a Democrat in today's environment. It's just awful.
I am honestly unsure what you mean by culture wars. Do you mean identity politics? Or the segmenting of the population into two political sports teams that think they are gladiators crushing and owning each other constantly?
The king of Trickle Down, Union Busting, pension stripping, contra starting, Proxy Latin American wars and really the beginning of the downsloping shit ride that led directly to Trump. Why anyone sees him as a hero is beyond me. Why the party that claims to be aligned with progressive liberal politics would think it is good to be aligned in anyway with that dirt bag is inconceivable.
They're just trying to woo Reagan Republicans by moving them away from Trump. From your perspective, I'd only be concerned if Biden was aligning himself with Reagan in crafting his platform. Otherwise if you can use that sort of message to get people to vote for you without compromising your agenda, that's a win.
After the dust settles from this election there is going to be a Gordian knot of Republican and Democrat interests intersecting and intertwining that is going to have to be swiftly cut. As soon as Biden wins, so called republicans against trump don’t get to stand around and get patted on the back as saviors of democracy and the Democratic Party. Last time a truly horrible Republican president left the office in disgrace(Nixon), the Democratic Party welcomed moderate republicans with open arms which helped drift the national discourse further right. Please let’s not do that again.
Assuming Biden wins, there will be a realignment of the parties in the next decade. I think some centrist Democrats could become republicans particularly if the culture wars end. So long as those continue, the Republicans will just shrink. But this may be good for someone like you because the center will probably be to the left of where it is today, and has been for the last 20 years.
One can only hope.
I'd rather be a Republican with no culture wars than a Democrat in today's environment. It's just awful.
I am honestly unsure what you mean by culture wars. Do you mean identity politics? Or the segmenting of the population into two political sports teams that think they are gladiators crushing and owning each other constantly?
Abortion, statues, confederates, racial divide, gay rights etc. These are the culture wars.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
I've said this before but Republicans are SO MUCH better at this stuff than Democrats are. This is fantastic. I want to start seeing them on tv though.
The fact that some dems have a hard time recognizing that these folks are helping their cause is mind boggling to me. Let these Lincoln Logs do what they do best----get down and dirty and drag Trump down with their negative ads. They're doing Biden's dirty work for him. It's brilliant...and it's working.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
I've said this before but Republicans are SO MUCH better at this stuff than Democrats are. This is fantastic. I want to start seeing them on tv though.
The fact that some dems have a hard time recognizing that these folks are helping their cause is mind boggling to me. Let these Lincoln Logs do what they do best----get down and dirty and drag Trump down with their negative ads. They're doing Biden's dirty work for him. It's brilliant...and it's working.
The main thing is that with all this help from “moderate” “resistance” Republicans some of us are worried that the long game pulls the national conversation Farther to the right leaving the DNC beholden to some Bush Era Rs who definitely are expecting more out of this unholy alliance than unseating trump.
I've said this before but Republicans are SO MUCH better at this stuff than Democrats are. This is fantastic. I want to start seeing them on tv though.
The fact that some dems have a hard time recognizing that these folks are helping their cause is mind boggling to me. Let these Lincoln Logs do what they do best----get down and dirty and drag Trump down with their negative ads. They're doing Biden's dirty work for him. It's brilliant...and it's working.
The main thing is that with all this help from “moderate” “resistance” Republicans some of us are worried that the long game pulls the national conversation Farther to the right leaving the DNC beholden to some Bush Era Rs who definitely are expecting more out of this unholy alliance than unseating trump.
A little nervous pushing in the same direction as Bill Kristol, eh?
I've said this before but Republicans are SO MUCH better at this stuff than Democrats are. This is fantastic. I want to start seeing them on tv though.
The fact that some dems have a hard time recognizing that these folks are helping their cause is mind boggling to me. Let these Lincoln Logs do what they do best----get down and dirty and drag Trump down with their negative ads. They're doing Biden's dirty work for him. It's brilliant...and it's working.
The main thing is that with all this help from “moderate” “resistance” Republicans some of us are worried that the long game pulls the national conversation Farther to the right leaving the DNC beholden to some Bush Era Rs who definitely are expecting more out of this unholy alliance than unseating trump.
A little nervous pushing in the same direction as Bill Kristol, eh?
I maintain the center of gravity is left of where it was 10+ years ago. Once the age of Trump is jettisoned, there will be a realignment.
Honestly, I identify with the super pro-Biden folks here more. If Amash was the L candidate and a bunch of neocons decided to jump in and give him a push, I'd have held my breath and gone along with it. You're gambling on whether he gives them a voice or pats them on the head and scoots them off once he's in office. I would take my chances with the latter, but understand the trepidation.
Fear mongering may be for chumps, but you can't deny that the appointment is critical, therefore a key component when deciding both your senate and presidential vote.
Fear mongering may be for chumps, but you can't deny that the appointment is critical, therefore a key component when deciding both your senate and presidential vote.
I would never in a million years have thought Trump would nominate someone like Gorsuch. And despite the controversy, Garland would have been much closer to Kavanaugh on issues like criminal justice and 4th Amendment than you see discussed. So no. Most people don’t have the faintest idea who a President will nominate, whether they will get through, and what their record means for cases that they'll see.
Fear mongering may be for chumps, but you can't deny that the appointment is critical, therefore a key component when deciding both your senate and presidential vote.
I would never in a million years have thought Trump would nominate someone like Gorsuch. And despite the controversy, Garland would have been much closer to Kavanaugh on issues like criminal justice and 4th Amendment than you see discussed. So no. Most people don’t have the faintest idea who a President will nominate, whether they will get through, and what their record means for cases that they'll see.
Maybe but how close would Garland be to Kav on abortion, Obamacare (individual mandate, birth control), limits on gun regulations, etc.? My guess is not that close.
Fear mongering may be for chumps, but you can't deny that the appointment is critical, therefore a key component when deciding both your senate and presidential vote.
I would never in a million years have thought Trump would nominate someone like Gorsuch. And despite the controversy, Garland would have been much closer to Kavanaugh on issues like criminal justice and 4th Amendment than you see discussed. So no. Most people don’t have the faintest idea who a President will nominate, whether they will get through, and what their record means for cases that they'll see.
Maybe but how close would Garland be to Kav on abortion, Obamacare (individual mandate, birth control), limits on gun regulations, etc.? My guess is not that close.
And yet they decry the "moving to the right" of the dem party. Which has a longer, lasting impact? Supreme Court judges or party platforms and positions?
Fear mongering may be for chumps, but you can't deny that the appointment is critical, therefore a key component when deciding both your senate and presidential vote.
I would never in a million years have thought Trump would nominate someone like Gorsuch. And despite the controversy, Garland would have been much closer to Kavanaugh on issues like criminal justice and 4th Amendment than you see discussed. So no. Most people don’t have the faintest idea who a President will nominate, whether they will get through, and what their record means for cases that they'll see.
Maybe but how close would Garland be to Kav on abortion, Obamacare (individual mandate, birth control), limits on gun regulations, etc.? My guess is not that close.
I'm only going off of criticism I read of Garland and Kavanaugh, which happened to be in those (same) areas. I honestly have no idea where either stands on abortion, the ACA, or guns. I'd only be making assumptions based on the party of the President who nominated them, which I think most people do. Which is a deeply flawed approach.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
I've seen this crap. He uses NH and SC as the markers. Silly.
I mean I guess he has to run the same model but man.....this year of all years? Those primaries feel like they were a decade ago. The impeachment trial was after them if I'm not mistaken. haha
I've seen this crap. He uses NH and SC as the markers. Silly.
I mean I guess he has to run the same model but man.....this year of all years? Those primaries feel like they were a decade ago. The impeachment trial was after them if I'm not mistaken. haha
And Bidens consolidation of the vote was unprecedented.
Oh yeah... and pandemic. Is that in the model?
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
Biden
Of the two biggest issues facing the country right now, Americans are OVERWHELMINGLY disappointed with how Trump is handling them. Just another reason why a model based on two primaries in January is worthless in 2020
Word on the street. Anything can happen but I doubt the electorate will elect the dumbest man to run for POTUS ever twice. But, anything can happen like having the election stolen.
We’re less than four months from the 2020 election, and President Trump is in a bad way. A slew of national polls show him losing to Joe Biden by an average of around nine points, swing-state polls almost universally show Biden leading, and worry is growing on the right not just that Trump will lose, but that he’ll lose badly enough to torpedo down-ballot Republicans. As The Post’s Seung Min Kim writes, many top GOP candidates are carefully but conspicuously distancing themselves from the president.
Meanwhile, the president is apparently being served up much more favorable numbers. The Post reported late Thursday that aides “have sought to boost Trump’s mood by presenting him internal polling that shows him in a better position than public surveys.” Trump was apparently thumbing through those polls when interviewed Wednesday by Post columnist Marc A. Thiessen.
But the numbers Trump is seeing (and in some cases inventing) bear very little resemblance to the vast majority of public polls, which are consistent in showing him running well behind his 2016 numbers almost uniformly across the country.
But just how bad is it for Trump right now? Here are some particularly ominous signs.
1. The low and hard ceiling
In a recent op-ed, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale sought to draw a parallel between Trump’s standing today and George W. Bush’s in 2004. Their approval ratings are similar at this point in their respective races, but Bush went on to win.
I broke down the whole op-ed, noting the limits of that argument. Chief among them was the Bush was, at that point, virtually tied with John F. Kerry. But Bush also, importantly, had room to grow, whereas about half the country has completely written off Trump today.
It’s important to emphasize the reason Parscale chose that comparison: Because there really isn’t a modern precedent for an elected incumbent recovering from this kind of deficit.
Of course, there haven’t been that many similar situations to which we can compare today; presidential elections only happen once every four years. But polls almost universally show Trump with a rather hard ceiling, suggesting he won’t be able to improve his standing a la Bush.
Trump can try to pull Biden down to his level, but he’ll need to damage him badly. And even when Trump was able to do that with Hillary Clinton in 2016, he still needed to beat the odds to pull off a fluky narrow victory.
2. The suburbs
The battles for the presidency, the Senate and particularly the House generally run through the suburbs, because these areas include inordinate amounts of swing voters. These areas in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin proved crucial for Trump in 2016, but they also played a major role in delivering the House back to the Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
This also appears to be one are in which Trump has seen some of his most significant erosion since 2016.
A recent NPR/PBS/Marist College poll showed Trump losing the suburbs by 25 points, 60 percent to 35 percent, despite winning them by a few points in 2016.
And how important are the suburbs? The GOP has lost them in a presidential election only three times since 1980: 1992, 1996 and 2008 — all three Democratic wins. What’s more, the most the GOP has lost the suburbs by was five points. Losing them even by just double digits — much less 25 points or anything close to it — would almost certainly be a death sentence for Trump’s reelection campaign.
3. White (college women) flight
The simplest — and often most-derided — take on how Trump won in 2016 was because of working-class white voters, particularly in those Midwestern states.
But polls today suggest one of Trump’s biggest problems is with these white voters, and particularly more-educated white women.
Exit polls in 2016 showed Trump winning white voters by 20 points (57-37), while a post-election analysis by the Pew Research Center put the number at 15 points. The recent Monmouth poll, by contrast, shows Trump winning white voters by just two points (48-46), Suffolk has him up just one (49-48), and the Marist poll has him up six (51-45).
The main driver of this: college-educated white woman. The exit polls showed Trump losing them by seven points (51-44), but today the gap is 29 points in the Marist poll and 28 points in a recent Washington Post analysis of polls. A New York Times/Siena College poll last month even showed that deficit stretching to an astounding 39 points.
This group accounted for a larger share of the white vote than any other gender/education combination, at 20 percent of all votes cast. In other words, if Trump is actually seeing these kinds of declines, it will shave real points off his vote share.
4. The generic ballot
As we approach the 2020 election, one number that hasn’t been polled as often will begin to take on increased prominence: the generic ballot. This is the question in which pollsters ask people whether they intend to vote for a generic Democrat or a generic Republican for Congress, and it gives us perhaps our best indicator of how the battle for the House and Senate might pan out
The bad news for the GOP: Those numbers are beginning to almost directly mirror the presidential race.
The Monmouth poll showed Democrats leading on the generic ballot by eight points, 50-42. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll at the same time showed Democrats up 14 — even slightly bigger than Biden’s 12-point edge. And an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in early June showed Democrats plus-11.
That Suffolk poll is the biggest margin to date in any poll logged by Real Clear Politics, and the NBC/WSJ poll tied what had to that point been the largest gap for any high-quality poll.
That’s the number that you’ll increasingly see Republicans worry about if Trump can’t right his own ship, and it could at some point force them to more explicitly distance themselves from Trump. If and when that happens, we’ll have a pretty good idea about just how concerned they are.
Comments
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
The fact that some dems have a hard time recognizing that these folks are helping their cause is mind boggling to me. Let these Lincoln Logs do what they do best----get down and dirty and drag Trump down with their negative ads. They're doing Biden's dirty work for him. It's brilliant...and it's working.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
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There are no kings inside the gates of eden
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-task-force-recommendations/index.html
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https://thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/506504-lincoln-project-offers-list-of-gop-senators-who-protect-trump?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=15942991702341&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/506504-lincoln-project-offers-list-of-gop-senators-who-protect-trump
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1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
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Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
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https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-has-91-percent-chance-of-winning-reelection-political-science-professor/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Oh yeah... and pandemic. Is that in the model?
www.headstonesband.com
We’re less than four months from the 2020 election, and President Trump is in a bad way. A slew of national polls show him losing to Joe Biden by an average of around nine points, swing-state polls almost universally show Biden leading, and worry is growing on the right not just that Trump will lose, but that he’ll lose badly enough to torpedo down-ballot Republicans. As The Post’s Seung Min Kim writes, many top GOP candidates are carefully but conspicuously distancing themselves from the president.
Meanwhile, the president is apparently being served up much more favorable numbers. The Post reported late Thursday that aides “have sought to boost Trump’s mood by presenting him internal polling that shows him in a better position than public surveys.” Trump was apparently thumbing through those polls when interviewed Wednesday by Post columnist Marc A. Thiessen.
But the numbers Trump is seeing (and in some cases inventing) bear very little resemblance to the vast majority of public polls, which are consistent in showing him running well behind his 2016 numbers almost uniformly across the country.
But just how bad is it for Trump right now? Here are some particularly ominous signs.
1. The low and hard ceiling
In a recent op-ed, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale sought to draw a parallel between Trump’s standing today and George W. Bush’s in 2004. Their approval ratings are similar at this point in their respective races, but Bush went on to win.
I broke down the whole op-ed, noting the limits of that argument. Chief among them was the Bush was, at that point, virtually tied with John F. Kerry. But Bush also, importantly, had room to grow, whereas about half the country has completely written off Trump today.
A Monmouth University poll last week, for instance, showed 50 percent of voters say they are “not at all likely” to vote for Trump, compared to 39 percent for Biden. That tracks with other polls last year that showed something similar, including in one poll of Texas, of all places.
It also tracks with polls that have shown around half of registered voters disapprove of Trump “strongly,” which also suggest they are off-limits for the president.
It’s important to emphasize the reason Parscale chose that comparison: Because there really isn’t a modern precedent for an elected incumbent recovering from this kind of deficit.
Of course, there haven’t been that many similar situations to which we can compare today; presidential elections only happen once every four years. But polls almost universally show Trump with a rather hard ceiling, suggesting he won’t be able to improve his standing a la Bush.
Trump can try to pull Biden down to his level, but he’ll need to damage him badly. And even when Trump was able to do that with Hillary Clinton in 2016, he still needed to beat the odds to pull off a fluky narrow victory.
2. The suburbs
The battles for the presidency, the Senate and particularly the House generally run through the suburbs, because these areas include inordinate amounts of swing voters. These areas in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin proved crucial for Trump in 2016, but they also played a major role in delivering the House back to the Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
This also appears to be one are in which Trump has seen some of his most significant erosion since 2016.
A recent NPR/PBS/Marist College poll showed Trump losing the suburbs by 25 points, 60 percent to 35 percent, despite winning them by a few points in 2016.
Other polls also show huge shifts, though not all quite as big. Fox News polls showed Biden leading suburban voters by six points in Florida (a 14-point shift from 2016), by 20 points in Georgia (a 25-point shift) and by 21 points in North Carolina (an astounding 45-point shift).
And how important are the suburbs? The GOP has lost them in a presidential election only three times since 1980: 1992, 1996 and 2008 — all three Democratic wins. What’s more, the most the GOP has lost the suburbs by was five points. Losing them even by just double digits — much less 25 points or anything close to it — would almost certainly be a death sentence for Trump’s reelection campaign.
3. White (college women) flight
The simplest — and often most-derided — take on how Trump won in 2016 was because of working-class white voters, particularly in those Midwestern states.
But polls today suggest one of Trump’s biggest problems is with these white voters, and particularly more-educated white women.
Exit polls in 2016 showed Trump winning white voters by 20 points (57-37), while a post-election analysis by the Pew Research Center put the number at 15 points. The recent Monmouth poll, by contrast, shows Trump winning white voters by just two points (48-46), Suffolk has him up just one (49-48), and the Marist poll has him up six (51-45).
The main driver of this: college-educated white woman. The exit polls showed Trump losing them by seven points (51-44), but today the gap is 29 points in the Marist poll and 28 points in a recent Washington Post analysis of polls. A New York Times/Siena College poll last month even showed that deficit stretching to an astounding 39 points.
4. The generic ballot
As we approach the 2020 election, one number that hasn’t been polled as often will begin to take on increased prominence: the generic ballot. This is the question in which pollsters ask people whether they intend to vote for a generic Democrat or a generic Republican for Congress, and it gives us perhaps our best indicator of how the battle for the House and Senate might pan out
The bad news for the GOP: Those numbers are beginning to almost directly mirror the presidential race.
The Monmouth poll showed Democrats leading on the generic ballot by eight points, 50-42. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll at the same time showed Democrats up 14 — even slightly bigger than Biden’s 12-point edge. And an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in early June showed Democrats plus-11.
That Suffolk poll is the biggest margin to date in any poll logged by Real Clear Politics, and the NBC/WSJ poll tied what had to that point been the largest gap for any high-quality poll.
That’s the number that you’ll increasingly see Republicans worry about if Trump can’t right his own ship, and it could at some point force them to more explicitly distance themselves from Trump. If and when that happens, we’ll have a pretty good idea about just how concerned they are.
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