Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

benjs

Lerxst1992 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

brianlux said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925?s=20

Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.

I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 

It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.

The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.

Gern Blansten

Biden

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1318934717476048899

Lerxst1992

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

brianlux said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925?s=20

Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.

I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 

It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.

The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.

The +27 D is the actual amount  registered democrats who have already voted that  exceeds registered Rs. About half of the early vote states release party data. It is actual voting data by party.

 Polls say Biden is pulling a higher same party % than trump (90 v 85). Polls say independents are voting Biden, so increases in that cohort could also be helpful for Biden, but that we don’t know for certain. I could analyze early vote stats and find out its mostly California, so it is meaningless. But combine the overall early vote to date of 38M and the possible total early vote of 100M, with polls telling us democrats are far likelier to vote early (and confirmed by states that release this detail), it seems to put  Rs on the spot Election Day with over 75% of the vote already in and overwhelmingly democrat, as the actual data says.

Any unforeseen event, weather, protests, long lines, etc., if 0.5% say “screw it, Trump ain’t worth it” that could cost him if the race in a key swing state that turns out to be close. It also minimizes the trump clown show/hunter Biden impact, because the majority of voters have already made up their mind if they already voted.

mrussel1

Biden

Lerxst1992 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

brianlux said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925?s=20

Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.

I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 

It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.

The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.

The +27 D is the actual amount  registered democrats who have already voted that  exceeds registered Rs. About half of the early vote states release party data. It is actual voting data by party.

 Polls say Biden is pulling a higher same party % than trump (90 v 85). Polls say independents are voting Biden, so increases in that cohort could also be helpful for Biden, but that we don’t know for certain. I could analyze early vote stats and find out its mostly California, so it is meaningless. But combine the overall early vote to date of 38M and the possible total early vote of 100M, with polls telling us democrats are far likelier to vote early (and confirmed by states that release this detail), it seems to put  Rs on the spot Election Day with over 75% of the vote already in and overwhelmingly democrat, as the actual data says.

Any unforeseen event, weather, protests, long lines, etc., if 0.5% say “screw it, Trump ain’t worth it” that could cost him if the race in a key swing state that turns out to be close. It also minimizes the trump clown show/hunter Biden impact, because the majority of voters have already made up their mind if they already voted.

Agreed, having the votes in hand is clearly better.  It's hard to tell if this data is great for the Democrats, but it certainly isn't bad for them. 

Gern Blansten

Biden

https://twitter.com/MichelleKinney/status/1318978084771594244

HughFreakingDillon

Biden

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/MichelleKinney/status/1318978084771594244

you just can't fake that type of empathy. trump would have had people take that poor kid into custody. and trump supporters would probably laugh at that and call biden weak because of that. 

F Me In The Brain

Biden

Trump would have called security to tackle someone trying to hug him.  (Unless it was a fit woman, in which case he probably would have grabbed a very strange hug.)

Gern Blansten

Biden

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/MichelleKinney/status/1318978084771594244

you just can't fake that type of empathy. trump would have had people take that poor kid into custody. and trump supporters would probably laugh at that and call biden weak because of that. 

Or call Biden a pedo....that's the pattern

The Juggler

Biden

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/MichelleKinney/status/1318978084771594244

What even was this from?

Jearlpam0925

Biden

https://twitter.com/GabbyGiffords/status/1306335665886552064?s=20

RunIntoTheRain

Biden

That is the human that Joe Biden is. It's really that simple. 

OnWis97

Biden

I don't think the Proud Boys are standing back any more....Vote for Trump, or Else.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/926139270/voters-in-florida-and-alaska-receive-emails-warning-vote-for-trump-or-else?utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3XWChFV4kXSnzZHSmMYJ-2KDvCh9EfRfOb7NyFca2BIGSQPLfKtdp428Y&fbclid=IwAR2D2B3jUc2oxVES7KjKPHtwbcHObySpMJ-z8lBaUqq3nkA793AiFQR5nh4&fbclid=IwAR07yoK5vkagyQ8oXw5R14_WU5HKcp58B7woRzeCl83C-kWE2f3YSpX2HQA&fbclid=IwAR25V4UUpS32-B4H9pIit1n0hLQwwGGHE5zWOCM_segroXq03cVhD1o2ohU&fbclid=IwAR1EyxnvLlaP8sA7lr5Qj5RYKOJO5EEVsYJZsDpyE1TjUa7NmD6v6RH2GI0&fbclid=IwAR1KgutRmEOO0q6OOB6QGEXG49tVwiryE_Sxg0Aa9IVhN8cpSc9XiJ89lpI&fbclid=IwAR3SZgs-I50aKlZjAWyOIvJKCnw70aEEEhM8g6Y2qmtZ0F0HycMjbilxlKA&fbclid=IwAR2m601Rpc-MXbcxKkdHEsAhImGkhKA57-oYvAHVrkF4xss31PufAf1ub5k&fbclid=IwAR3wDmoUuIhBjqUQm8xdoOJqKgbh4imOG2PpYtbnxewlacRsjqlOx_0UTEI&fbclid=IwAR07wc7GVKS0kD63LNilQynN87eMGgvGT-pJT0yjO_82NPxiV1xFyX6XqQE&fbclid=IwAR3CVceHwKDhNC-D5t3-f2eUqch5FS2-Piz_swFchA5QpYkrCEybCETnqGo

brianlux

Biden

A compassionate human being as president- that's something I can get behind and Joe is the man!

The Juggler

Biden

OnWis97 said:

I don't think the Proud Boys are standing back any more....Vote for Trump, or Else.

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/926139270/voters-in-florida-and-alaska-receive-emails-warning-vote-for-trump-or-else?utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3XWChFV4kXSnzZHSmMYJ-2KDvCh9EfRfOb7NyFca2BIGSQPLfKtdp428Y&fbclid=IwAR2D2B3jUc2oxVES7KjKPHtwbcHObySpMJ-z8lBaUqq3nkA793AiFQR5nh4&fbclid=IwAR07yoK5vkagyQ8oXw5R14_WU5HKcp58B7woRzeCl83C-kWE2f3YSpX2HQA&fbclid=IwAR25V4UUpS32-B4H9pIit1n0hLQwwGGHE5zWOCM_segroXq03cVhD1o2ohU&fbclid=IwAR1EyxnvLlaP8sA7lr5Qj5RYKOJO5EEVsYJZsDpyE1TjUa7NmD6v6RH2GI0&fbclid=IwAR1KgutRmEOO0q6OOB6QGEXG49tVwiryE_Sxg0Aa9IVhN8cpSc9XiJ89lpI&fbclid=IwAR3SZgs-I50aKlZjAWyOIvJKCnw70aEEEhM8g6Y2qmtZ0F0HycMjbilxlKA&fbclid=IwAR2m601Rpc-MXbcxKkdHEsAhImGkhKA57-oYvAHVrkF4xss31PufAf1ub5k&fbclid=IwAR3wDmoUuIhBjqUQm8xdoOJqKgbh4imOG2PpYtbnxewlacRsjqlOx_0UTEI&fbclid=IwAR07wc7GVKS0kD63LNilQynN87eMGgvGT-pJT0yjO_82NPxiV1xFyX6XqQE&fbclid=IwAR3CVceHwKDhNC-D5t3-f2eUqch5FS2-Piz_swFchA5QpYkrCEybCETnqGo

It's spam, dude. I sincerely doubt it was actually sent from that group.

Jearlpam0925

Biden

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1319002073023864833?s=20

Might have to bike on over.

Gern Blansten

Biden

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/MichelleKinney/status/1318978084771594244

What even was this from?

The boy's father was killed in the Parkland shooting

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

brianlux said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925?s=20

Wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Texas seceded from the United States (as long as we could annex Austin).

The swing state polls are too close for my liking, reminding me of 2016.

But early voting is giving me hope. As of Yesterday 31 million cumulative  votes were cast, today it increased to 36 million.

At this pace it is possible to have 100 million votes cast before Election Day. Dems are running about +20% so far. Good news.

I think visible momentum towards Biden could draw Republicans out to cast votes, exacerbated by the terror of Democrats being in control of Congress, Senate, and Executive branches. To that effect, I think this can serve either party if they properly exploit the situation, but Trump has shown himself more adept at exploitation, and Republicans more exploitable. 

It might, but polls have shown voters planning to vote early this year has increased exponentially, and of this population Dems planning to vote early are about 20+ points higher per the polls.  Right now it’s +27 D. Last time it was +8 D.

Typically pundits say this means nothing, whether votes are early, mailed or traditional. But the numbers this year are off the charts, whether due to covid, more states expanding mail/ early voting or desire for change. Since last night , another 2 million votes have been added to the total, it’s up to 38 million. The record for total early voting (47M) could fall before friday

Its been running at 5 million per day within the last week, which means we could have 77% of the vote cast BEFORE Election Day.

This has two very possible scenarios. First, since Dems appear to be getting nearly 30% more early votes, any encumbrance on Election Day voting is likely to hurt republicans. Whether that’s a driving rain storm, severe thunderstorms or anything else, if it drives down the traditional vote slightly, it’s likely to hurt republicans, which is the opposite of what the media has been reporting (intimidation will drive down the vote). Trump won by razor thin margins in 4 states and we did not have early voting like this.

Second, in areas where Rs usually win by restricting access to vote, the opposite is possible. Shorter Election Day lines in Democratic cities within Red states could also hurt trump.

The problem as I see it, is that we really couldn't know where this cohort of voters come from. Is the +30D from undecideds? Former election-day voters? All I'm saying is I feel when you sum up the pros and cons, I'm really not sure I have any confidence of the net effect.

The +27 D is the actual amount  registered democrats who have already voted that  exceeds registered Rs. About half of the early vote states release party data. It is actual voting data by party.

 Polls say Biden is pulling a higher same party % than trump (90 v 85). Polls say independents are voting Biden, so increases in that cohort could also be helpful for Biden, but that we don’t know for certain. I could analyze early vote stats and find out its mostly California, so it is meaningless. But combine the overall early vote to date of 38M and the possible total early vote of 100M, with polls telling us democrats are far likelier to vote early (and confirmed by states that release this detail), it seems to put  Rs on the spot Election Day with over 75% of the vote already in and overwhelmingly democrat, as the actual data says.

Any unforeseen event, weather, protests, long lines, etc., if 0.5% say “screw it, Trump ain’t worth it” that could cost him if the race in a key swing state that turns out to be close. It also minimizes the trump clown show/hunter Biden impact, because the majority of voters have already made up their mind if they already voted.

Agreed, having the votes in hand is clearly better.  It's hard to tell if this data is great for the Democrats, but it certainly isn't bad for them. 

It’s up from 31M at 10pm EDT last night to 38M this morning to 41M now. 10M votes processed in the last 18 hours. 21% of the total record early vote in the last 18 hours

Democrats have been sayin vote early and vote by mail. Trump has been discouraging it. This could turn out to be the key story of the election.

Lerxst1992

States that release party affiliation for voters who already submitted ballots - the following swing states all have Ds with a big lead

Democratic “leads”

FL +13
IA +22
NC +16
NV +14
PA +50

The Juggler

Biden

Lerxst1992 said:

States that release party affiliation for voters who already submitted ballots - the following swing states all have Ds with a big lead

Democratic “leads”

FL +13
IA +22
NC +16
NV +14
PA +50

How bout that commonwealth of pa knocking early voting out of the park?!

Halifax2TheMax

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

States that release party affiliation for voters who already submitted ballots - the following swing states all have Ds with a big lead

Democratic “leads”

FL +13
IA +22
NC +16
NV +14
PA +50

How bout that commonwealth of pa knocking early voting out of the park?!

Isn’t that just percentage of dem over repub votes and not total early votes cast? PA could have 100 votes cast and FL 10,000. And probably dems in Philly coming out in droves, early. And they still need to be counted. Question is, where and how are they kept until that happens? Arson is a real thing.