So alternative adults love them some Dance of the Clairvoyants.
What is that, like the Spectrum on Sirius or something?
No, it's a very small panel of radio stations like KFOG in San Francisco, about 30 stations in total if I recall correctly. To put it in perspective, a few weeks ago (the last time I looked at this particular bit of data), the most-played song at Triple-A was spun a total of 579 times in a week.* The most-played song at CHR (contemporary hit radio a.k.a. "top 40") was spun over 18,000 times in a week (because there are many more CHR stations, generally at least two in every major market).
*So you can estimate that "Dance of the Clairvoyants" was played about 500 times in aggregate on these radio stations last week. Having a hit at Triple A is like being a big fish in a very small pond. (Although it's worth noting that the Hot 100 is so skewed to streaming now that it is not exactly representative of what people are listening to. The number one song for the last 11 weeks has been Roddy Ricch's "The Box." I regularly ask people from their 20s through their 60s what they think of this song, and almost none of them has ever heard of it or of Ricch. The Hot 100 is weighted about 82 percent to streaming even though the radio audience is still larger than the streaming audience. It's crazy. It's supposed to be an all-genre chart that casts a wide net, but instead it has ended up very narrowly reflecting younger and more urban (i.e., cities-- not "urban" as code for "black" as used in other radio contexts like "urban contemporary") listeners' tastes.
Album's release will impact next week's charts. The album looks like it will debut at No. 2 on Top Album Sales (behind 5 Seconds of Summer), although there is a chance it could debut at No. 1. The album will likely debut on the Billboard 200 (which incorporates streaming, not just sales) anywhere from No. 4 to No. 7.
Not including Ten, no Pearl Jam studio album has peaked below No. 5 (Riot Act). So there's a chance this could be Pearl Jam's lowest-charting studio album. However, bear in mind that every other Pearl Jam studio album debuted before the Billboard 200 factored in streaming, so the real analogue is the Top Album Sales chart, on which Gigaton will definitely debut no lower than No. 2.
Unfortunately, the Billboard 200 formula disadvantages artists who sell disproportionately more physical albums, which includes rock artists. Rock accounted for over 40 percent of physical album sales in 2019. The problem is that there is no way for Billboard to track how many times you listen to your CD or vinyl copy of the album. All they can do is count one sale. For genres that are more heavily streamed (e.g., hip-hop and pop), each stream is tracked for every album track. As a result, Pearl Jam is going to sell at least 50 times as many copies of Gigaton as Lil Uzi Vert will sell of his new album this week, but Lil Uzi Vert's album will rank higher because he will have about four times as many streams as Pearl Jam, and streams are weighted more heavily than sales.
Projected Billboard 200: 1. The Weeknd, After Hours: 85-90k total units, 9-12k sales 2. 5 Seconds of Summer, Calm: 75-80k, 60-65k 3. Lil Uzi Vert, Eternal Atake: 75-80k, 1k 4. Pearl Jam, Gigaton: 55-60k, 50-55k 5. Dua Lipa, Future Nostalgia: 55-60k, 15-18k 6. Partynextdoor, Partymobile: 50-55k, 3-4k 7. Lil Baby, My Turn: 50-55k, 1-2k 8. Bad Bunny, YHLQMDLG: 45-50k, <1k 9. Roddy Ricch, Please Excuse Me for Being Antisocial: 37-42k, <1k 10. Post Malone, Hollywood's Bleeding: 35-40k, 1k
Projected Top Album Sales: 1. 5 Seconds of Summer: 60-65k 2. Pearl Jam: 50-55k 3. Dua Lipa: 15-18k 4. Joyner Lucas, ADHD: 10-13k 5. The Weeknd: 9-12k
With respect to first-week performance, here it is for each studio album:
Ten: did not chart upon release Vs.: #1 Vitalogy: #55* No Code: #1 Yield: #2 Binaural: #2 Riot Act: #5 Pearl Jam: #2 Backspacer: #1 Lightning Bolt: #1
* Vitalogy debuted at #55 based solely on vinyl sales. The vinyl was released two weeks before the CD. In the second week of vinyl-only release, it fell to #173. In the first week of CD availability (and third week overall on the chart), the album jumped to #1.
Note: All of the debuts listed above were peaks for the respective albums, except Vitalogy (for the reasons described above) and Ten (which eventually reached #2 when it charted).
The fact that The Who sold 89k their first week. And PJ might not get to 60k. These projections were from Monday. So what's the likelihood we can make that number go higher? I did my part
The fact that The Who sold 89k their first week. And PJ might not get to 60k. These projections were from Monday. So what's the likelihood we can make that number go higher? I did my part
In a non COVID19 world Pearl Jam top 100k. The country is on lockdown. Half the country has all non-grocery stores closed. They already said its a 40% drop in all physical sales across the board.
One other factor in this is that it's not entirely clear whether the Ten Club reports its direct-to-members sales to Soundscan. If the Ten Club does report its sales, I have trouble figuring how the total sales number would be as low as 50-55,000. Many members of the Ten Club (including me) buy the album in two formats, CD and LP. If there are 200,000 active members of the Ten Club, you would get to 50-55,000 if only 25-27.5 percent of members bought a copy-- and that's without selling a single copy at retail. It would reflect an even smaller percentage considering that many Ten Club members buy two formats.
There are so few retailers who still sell albums that the impact of store shutdowns may be limited. I suspect that the majority of retail sales are through online orders (e.g., Amazon). Many independent record stores are not set up to report to Soundscan, so those sales won't be captured and, relatively speaking, they account for more and more of brick-and-mortar sales with Best Buy, Target and other big retailers shrinking their music departments.
The fact that The Who sold 89k their first week. And PJ might not get to 60k. These projections were from Monday. So what's the likelihood we can make that number go higher? I did my part
Let me first just say these are my 2 favorite bands. The Who will always be #1 cause of PT with PJ #2. As for why the Who beat PJ in first week sales was one PT and RD were doing promtional press for 2 months before the release of the album, PJ nothing! Secondly it was almost 15 years between Who albums and there's no doubt it's their last. Both albums are great and neither toured while they were released, the Who's 1st leg was already well over and obviously PJ's postponed. EV needed to make himself available for the press, if 2 guys in their mid 70's could do it then he certainly could've. Just my 2 cents.
Post edited by vito on
ALPINE VALLEY MUSIC THEATRE 1992 SUMMERFEST MILWAUKEE 1995 ALPINE VALLEY MUSIC THEATRE 1998 UNITED CENTER CHICAGO1998 THOMPSON-BOLING ARENA KNOXVILLE 1998 ALPINE VALLEY MUSIC THEATRE 2000 ALLSTATE ARENA ROSEMONT 2000 ALPINE VALLEY MUSIC THEATRE 2003 HERSHEYPARK STADIUM 2003 TOLEDO SPORTS ARENA 2004 AIR CANADA CENTRE TORONTO 2005 UNITED CENTER CHICAGO 2006 UNITED CENTER CHICAGO 2006 VERIZON CENTER DC 2008 UNITED CENTER CHICAGO 2009 NATIONWIDE ARENA COLUMBUS 2010 PJ20 NIGHT 1 Alpine Valley Music Theatre 2011 PJ20 NIGHT 2 Alpine Valley Music Theatre 2011 1ST MARINER ARENA BALTIMORE 2013 IWIRELESS CENTER MOLINE 2014 XCEL ENERGY CENTER ST. PAUL 2014 CHICAGO 1 Wrigley Field 2016 CHICAGO 2 Wrigley Field 2016 CHICAGO 1 Wrigley Field 2018 CHICAGO 2 Wrigley Field 2018 BOSTON 2 Fenway Park 2018 ENTERPRISE CENTER SAINT LOUIS 2022 Eddie Vedder Auditorium Theatre CHICAGO 2008
One other factor in this is that it's not entirely clear whether the Ten Club reports its direct-to-members sales to Soundscan. If the Ten Club does report its sales, I have trouble figuring how the total sales number would be as low as 50-55,000. Many members of the Ten Club (including me) buy the album in two formats, CD and LP. If there are 200,000 active members of the Ten Club, you would get to 50-55,000 if only 25-27.5 percent of members bought a copy-- and that's without selling a single copy at retail. It would reflect an even smaller percentage considering that many Ten Club members buy two formats.
There are so few retailers who still sell albums that the impact of store shutdowns may be limited. I suspect that the majority of retail sales are through online orders (e.g., Amazon). Many independent record stores are not set up to report to Soundscan, so those sales won't be captured and, relatively speaking, they account for more and more of brick-and-mortar sales with Best Buy, Target and other big retailers shrinking their music departments.
That's what I wondered as well. Although some are overseas members and those don't count for U.S. sales. Also how many if any canceled orders on Amazon when they saw it wasn't coming in time or just needed that extra cash? Then again there are ten club members who didn't know there was a tour. Also people were scared off because of the price
Another factor to consider for the Billboard charts is that these days most artists tie their albums to their concert ticket sales which obviously Pearl Jam doesn't do. So for instance, this past week a good portion of the Weeknd's album "sales" came from people who bought tickets to his concert and got the album free with it.
Another factor to consider for the Billboard charts is that these days most artists tie their albums to their concert ticket sales which obviously Pearl Jam doesn't do. So for instance, this past week a good portion of the Weeknd's album "sales" came from people who bought tickets to his concert and got the album free with it.
I thought Billboard was not going to count that anymore. But that is the case.
Guess having a #1 album in 4 different decades won't happen
How do you know that?
Well for now it won't. But usually sales drop the 2nd week by at least 50% if you're lucky. They won't stream. Stores are still closed. There's a chance they could have an uptick once everything is back to normal and they play an SNL or something.
This is for U.S.. It might be #1 in other countries
Guess having a #1 album in 4 different decades won't happen
How do you know that?
Well for now it won't. But usually sales drop the 2nd week by at least 50% if you're lucky. They won't stream. Stores are still closed. There's a chance they could have an uptick once everything is back to normal and they play an SNL or something.
Loving the album but I’m not surprised sales are so low due to COVID-19 and little to no promotion. At least the friends I share the album with are really digging it too.
Guess having a #1 album in 4 different decades won't happen
How do you know that?
Well for now it won't. But usually sales drop the 2nd week by at least 50% if you're lucky. They won't stream. Stores are still closed. There's a chance they could have an uptick once everything is back to normal and they play an SNL or something.
Loving the album but I’m not surprised sales are so low due to COVID-19 and little to no promotion. At least the friends I share the album with are really digging it too.
They are promoting it. But it's not reaching the casual fan or possible new fans. But the streaming is what hurts
Guess having a #1 album in 4 different decades won't happen
How do you know that?
Well for now it won't. But usually sales drop the 2nd week by at least 50% if you're lucky. They won't stream. Stores are still closed. There's a chance they could have an uptick once everything is back to normal and they play an SNL or something.
Loving the album but I’m not surprised sales are so low due to COVID-19 and little to no promotion. At least the friends I share the album with are really digging it too.
They are promoting it. But it's not reaching the casual fan or possible new fans. But the streaming is what hurts
Huge opportunity to hit the masses on late night tv and web concerts while so many people are trapped at home. But that’s not their MO.
Guess having a #1 album in 4 different decades won't happen
How do you know that?
Well for now it won't. But usually sales drop the 2nd week by at least 50% if you're lucky. They won't stream. Stores are still closed. There's a chance they could have an uptick once everything is back to normal and they play an SNL or something.
This is for U.S.. It might be #1 in other countries
We are only in the first year of this decade.
More chances to be number 1.
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
Guess having a #1 album in 4 different decades won't happen
How do you know that?
Well for now it won't. But usually sales drop the 2nd week by at least 50% if you're lucky. They won't stream. Stores are still closed. There's a chance they could have an uptick once everything is back to normal and they play an SNL or something.
Loving the album but I’m not surprised sales are so low due to COVID-19 and little to no promotion. At least the friends I share the album with are really digging it too.
They are promoting it. But it's not reaching the casual fan or possible new fans. But the streaming is what hurts
Huge opportunity to hit the masses on late night tv and web concerts while so many people are trapped at home. But that’s not their MO.
Look at the percentages of who's watching till the end of late night talk shows.
The youtube upload of the performance would still be the thing to get eyeballs.
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
Guess having a #1 album in 4 different decades won't happen
How do you know that?
Well for now it won't. But usually sales drop the 2nd week by at least 50% if you're lucky. They won't stream. Stores are still closed. There's a chance they could have an uptick once everything is back to normal and they play an SNL or something.
Loving the album but I’m not surprised sales are so low due to COVID-19 and little to no promotion. At least the friends I share the album with are really digging it too.
They are promoting it. But it's not reaching the casual fan or possible new fans. But the streaming is what hurts
Huge opportunity to hit the masses on late night tv and web concerts while so many people are trapped at home. But that’s not their MO.
Look at the percentages of who's watching till the end of late night talk shows.
The youtube upload of the performance would still be the thing to get eyeballs.
The late night performance would put them in the news and on the internet and would be used as a marketing tool to get people to care and actually go to the YouTube video (and possible pick up the album)
Comments
*So you can estimate that "Dance of the Clairvoyants" was played about 500 times in aggregate on these radio stations last week. Having a hit at Triple A is like being a big fish in a very small pond. (Although it's worth noting that the Hot 100 is so skewed to streaming now that it is not exactly representative of what people are listening to. The number one song for the last 11 weeks has been Roddy Ricch's "The Box." I regularly ask people from their 20s through their 60s what they think of this song, and almost none of them has ever heard of it or of Ricch. The Hot 100 is weighted about 82 percent to streaming even though the radio audience is still larger than the streaming audience. It's crazy. It's supposed to be an all-genre chart that casts a wide net, but instead it has ended up very narrowly reflecting younger and more urban (i.e., cities-- not "urban" as code for "black" as used in other radio contexts like "urban contemporary") listeners' tastes.
Album's release will impact next week's charts. The album looks like it will debut at No. 2 on Top Album Sales (behind 5 Seconds of Summer), although there is a chance it could debut at No. 1. The album will likely debut on the Billboard 200 (which incorporates streaming, not just sales) anywhere from No. 4 to No. 7.
Not including Ten, no Pearl Jam studio album has peaked below No. 5 (Riot Act). So there's a chance this could be Pearl Jam's lowest-charting studio album. However, bear in mind that every other Pearl Jam studio album debuted before the Billboard 200 factored in streaming, so the real analogue is the Top Album Sales chart, on which Gigaton will definitely debut no lower than No. 2.
Unfortunately, the Billboard 200 formula disadvantages artists who sell disproportionately more physical albums, which includes rock artists. Rock accounted for over 40 percent of physical album sales in 2019. The problem is that there is no way for Billboard to track how many times you listen to your CD or vinyl copy of the album. All they can do is count one sale. For genres that are more heavily streamed (e.g., hip-hop and pop), each stream is tracked for every album track. As a result, Pearl Jam is going to sell at least 50 times as many copies of Gigaton as Lil Uzi Vert will sell of his new album this week, but Lil Uzi Vert's album will rank higher because he will have about four times as many streams as Pearl Jam, and streams are weighted more heavily than sales.
Projected Billboard 200:
1. The Weeknd, After Hours: 85-90k total units, 9-12k sales
2. 5 Seconds of Summer, Calm: 75-80k, 60-65k
3. Lil Uzi Vert, Eternal Atake: 75-80k, 1k
4. Pearl Jam, Gigaton: 55-60k, 50-55k
5. Dua Lipa, Future Nostalgia: 55-60k, 15-18k
6. Partynextdoor, Partymobile: 50-55k, 3-4k
7. Lil Baby, My Turn: 50-55k, 1-2k
8. Bad Bunny, YHLQMDLG: 45-50k, <1k
9. Roddy Ricch, Please Excuse Me for Being Antisocial: 37-42k, <1k
10. Post Malone, Hollywood's Bleeding: 35-40k, 1k
Projected Top Album Sales:
1. 5 Seconds of Summer: 60-65k
2. Pearl Jam: 50-55k
3. Dua Lipa: 15-18k
4. Joyner Lucas, ADHD: 10-13k
5. The Weeknd: 9-12k
With respect to first-week performance, here it is for each studio album:
Ten: did not chart upon release
Vs.: #1
Vitalogy: #55*
No Code: #1
Yield: #2
Binaural: #2
Riot Act: #5
Pearl Jam: #2
Backspacer: #1
Lightning Bolt: #1
* Vitalogy debuted at #55 based solely on vinyl sales. The vinyl was released two weeks before the CD. In the second week of vinyl-only release, it fell to #173. In the first week of CD availability (and third week overall on the chart), the album jumped to #1.
Note: All of the debuts listed above were peaks for the respective albums, except Vitalogy (for the reasons described above) and Ten (which eventually reached #2 when it charted).
These projections were from Monday. So what's the likelihood we can make that number go higher? I did my part
There are so few retailers who still sell albums that the impact of store shutdowns may be limited. I suspect that the majority of retail sales are through online orders (e.g., Amazon). Many independent record stores are not set up to report to Soundscan, so those sales won't be captured and, relatively speaking, they account for more and more of brick-and-mortar sales with Best Buy, Target and other big retailers shrinking their music departments.
SUMMERFEST MILWAUKEE 1995
ALPINE VALLEY MUSIC THEATRE 1998
UNITED CENTER CHICAGO1998
THOMPSON-BOLING ARENA KNOXVILLE 1998
ALPINE VALLEY MUSIC THEATRE 2000
ALLSTATE ARENA ROSEMONT 2000
ALPINE VALLEY MUSIC THEATRE 2003
HERSHEYPARK STADIUM 2003
TOLEDO SPORTS ARENA 2004
AIR CANADA CENTRE TORONTO 2005
UNITED CENTER CHICAGO 2006
UNITED CENTER CHICAGO 2006
VERIZON CENTER DC 2008
UNITED CENTER CHICAGO 2009
NATIONWIDE ARENA COLUMBUS 2010
PJ20 NIGHT 1 Alpine Valley Music Theatre 2011
PJ20 NIGHT 2 Alpine Valley Music Theatre 2011
1ST MARINER ARENA BALTIMORE 2013
IWIRELESS CENTER MOLINE 2014
XCEL ENERGY CENTER ST. PAUL 2014
CHICAGO 1 Wrigley Field 2016
CHICAGO 2 Wrigley Field 2016
CHICAGO 1 Wrigley Field 2018
CHICAGO 2 Wrigley Field 2018
BOSTON 2 Fenway Park 2018
ENTERPRISE CENTER SAINT LOUIS 2022
Eddie Vedder Auditorium Theatre CHICAGO 2008
This is for U.S.. It might be #1 in other countries
More chances to be number 1.
The youtube upload of the performance would still be the thing to get eyeballs.