The coronavirus

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  • mace1229
    mace1229 Posts: 9,848
    Lerxst1992 said:
    DEATHS CAN BE UNDERREPORTED JUST LIKE CASES MIGHT BE.

    ITS QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE FIRST TYPE OF ERROR TO NOT EXIST IF THE SECOND EXISTS

    The most likely scenario is both do. And mild covid cases are nearly irrelevant in considering the true danger to the vulnerable. So let’s stop pretending that mild cases make covid less deadly.
    Sharing facts is not pretending. Even the CDC believes the cases to be significantly under reported. If you want to believe they aren’t, fine. But even the CDC believes the cases to be about 8 times greater than what is reported. I highly doubt anyone think deaths are that under reported as well.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    yes, that report is from 5 months ago. But show me a more recent CDC report or other reliable source that says it’s not drastically under reported.
    Thats not pretending this isn’t deadly or that we should just hope for here immunity. It’s just facts.
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,437
    It's been interesting reading the back and forth. I don't see the point in the opposing side arguing the amount of deaths since it's clear we'd have tens of millions of dead if nothing had been done and we just let it run it's course unabated. Weirdest argument ever. Who cares if it would be 120 million or 22 million, both are insanely unacceptable. 
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,888
    tbergs said:
    It's been interesting reading the back and forth. I don't see the point in the opposing side arguing the amount of deaths since it's clear we'd have tens of millions of dead if nothing had been done and we just let it run it's course unabated. Weirdest argument ever. Who cares if it would be 120 million or 22 million, both are insanely unacceptable. 
    Yes, that is it exactly.  That was the whole argument to the person who said that we should have just gone herd. 
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,447
    mrussel1 said:
    tbergs said:
    It's been interesting reading the back and forth. I don't see the point in the opposing side arguing the amount of deaths since it's clear we'd have tens of millions of dead if nothing had been done and we just let it run it's course unabated. Weirdest argument ever. Who cares if it would be 120 million or 22 million, both are insanely unacceptable. 
    Yes, that is it exactly.  That was the whole argument to the person who said that we should have just gone herd. 
    Because virus gonna virus. 
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  • Merkin Baller
    Merkin Baller Posts: 12,818
    tbergs said:
    It's been interesting reading the back and forth. I don't see the point in the opposing side arguing the amount of deaths since it's clear we'd have tens of millions of dead if nothing had been done and we just let it run it's course unabated. Weirdest argument ever. Who cares if it would be 120 million or 22 million, both are insanely unacceptable. 
    Agreed. 
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,888
    edited April 2021
    mace1229 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    DEATHS CAN BE UNDERREPORTED JUST LIKE CASES MIGHT BE.

    ITS QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE FIRST TYPE OF ERROR TO NOT EXIST IF THE SECOND EXISTS

    The most likely scenario is both do. And mild covid cases are nearly irrelevant in considering the true danger to the vulnerable. So let’s stop pretending that mild cases make covid less deadly.
    Sharing facts is not pretending. Even the CDC believes the cases to be significantly under reported. If you want to believe they aren’t, fine. But even the CDC believes the cases to be about 8 times greater than what is reported. I highly doubt anyone think deaths are that under reported as well.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    yes, that report is from 5 months ago. But show me a more recent CDC report or other reliable source that says it’s not drastically under reported.
    Thats not pretending this isn’t deadly or that we should just hope for here immunity. It’s just facts.
    Mace - you've got half the story right.  As I said I used straight math to calculate the death rate, 2%+.  Five below objected saying 40-45% of cases are not in the numbers.  I said, fine, let's up the total cases to 189MM (known cases *1.40), so the death rate goes to 1.5%, I recalculated the approximate deaths from herd or "do nothing".  And then it just kept going, and going and going.  For what reason, I'm not sure.  No one is disputing that the number of actual cases are higher than reported.  I wasn't trying to make a precise case, only the point that the total deaths from herd would be enormous. 
    Post edited by mrussel1 on
  • mace1229
    mace1229 Posts: 9,848
    mrussel1 said:
    mace1229 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    DEATHS CAN BE UNDERREPORTED JUST LIKE CASES MIGHT BE.

    ITS QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE FIRST TYPE OF ERROR TO NOT EXIST IF THE SECOND EXISTS

    The most likely scenario is both do. And mild covid cases are nearly irrelevant in considering the true danger to the vulnerable. So let’s stop pretending that mild cases make covid less deadly.
    Sharing facts is not pretending. Even the CDC believes the cases to be significantly under reported. If you want to believe they aren’t, fine. But even the CDC believes the cases to be about 8 times greater than what is reported. I highly doubt anyone think deaths are that under reported as well.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    yes, that report is from 5 months ago. But show me a more recent CDC report or other reliable source that says it’s not drastically under reported.
    Thats not pretending this isn’t deadly or that we should just hope for here immunity. It’s just facts.
    Mace - you've got half the story right.  As I said I used straight math to calculate the death rate, 2%+.  Five below objected saying 40-45% of cases are not in the numbers.  I said, fine, let's up the total cases to 189MM (known cases *1.40), so the death rate goes to 1.5%, I recalculated the approximate deaths from herd or "do nothing".  And then it just kept going, and going and going.  For what reason, I'm not sure.  No one is disputing that the number of actual cases are higher than reported.  I wasn't trying to make a precise case, only the point that the total deaths from herd would be enormous. 
    Even if the actual death rate for the US is below 1%, which I believe it to be, I would agree with that.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,447
    Seems the resident clown shoe and self admitted idiot with regards to math and science, all things really, was closest in their prediction. An update on our Swedish friends too, although somewhat dated being from October 2020.  Buh, buh, buh my freedumb and virus gonna virus. Hey, who knows, one or two million dead 'Muricans is no biggie. To some, apparently.


    Many researchers say pursuing herd immunity is a bad idea. “Attempting to reach herd immunity via targeted infections is simply ludicrous,” Andersen says. “In the US, probably one to two million people would die.”

    Earlier in the pandemic, media reports claimed that Sweden was pursuing a herd immunity strategy by essentially letting people live their lives as normal, but that idea is a “misunderstanding”, according to the country’s minister for health and social affairs, Lena Hallengren. Herd immunity “is a potential consequence of how the spread of the virus develops, in Sweden or in any other country”, she told Nature in a written statement, but it is “not a part of our strategy”. Sweden’s approach, she said, uses similar tools to most other countries: “Promoting social distancing, protecting vulnerable people, carrying out testing and contact tracing, and reinforcing our health system to cope with the pandemic.” Despite this, Sweden is hardly a model of success — statistics from Johns Hopkins University show the country has seen more than ten times the number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people seen in neighbouring Norway (58.12 per 100,000, compared with 5.23 per 100,000 in Norway). Sweden’s case fatality rate, which is based on the number of known infections, is also at least three times those of Norway and nearby Denmark.

    The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 (nature.com)
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  • FiveBelow
    FiveBelow Posts: 1,345
    edited April 2021
    mrussel1 said:
    mace1229 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    DEATHS CAN BE UNDERREPORTED JUST LIKE CASES MIGHT BE.

    ITS QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE FIRST TYPE OF ERROR TO NOT EXIST IF THE SECOND EXISTS

    The most likely scenario is both do. And mild covid cases are nearly irrelevant in considering the true danger to the vulnerable. So let’s stop pretending that mild cases make covid less deadly.
    Sharing facts is not pretending. Even the CDC believes the cases to be significantly under reported. If you want to believe they aren’t, fine. But even the CDC believes the cases to be about 8 times greater than what is reported. I highly doubt anyone think deaths are that under reported as well.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/26/939365087/government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    yes, that report is from 5 months ago. But show me a more recent CDC report or other reliable source that says it’s not drastically under reported.
    Thats not pretending this isn’t deadly or that we should just hope for here immunity. It’s just facts.
    Mace - you've got half the story right.  As I said I used straight math to calculate the death rate, 2%+.  Five below objected saying 40-45% of cases are not in the numbers.  I said, fine, let's up the total cases to 189MM (known cases *1.40), so the death rate goes to 1.5%, I recalculated the approximate deaths from herd or "do nothing".  And then it just kept going, and going and going.  For what reason, I'm not sure.  No one is disputing that the number of actual cases are higher than reported.  I wasn't trying to make a precise case, only the point that the total deaths from herd would be enormous. 
    If this had been your initial response things would have been much easier. I also made it clear that I was not for herd immunity and no amount of death is acceptable. Moving on, no hard feelings.
    Post edited by FiveBelow on
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,665
    edited April 2021
    Update: After getting Moderna shot #2 Saturday morning, we went for our daily one our of brisk walking (#141 consecutive days walking!) By the end of the day, I feeling a bit tired but no big deal. But then I woke up early Sunday morning with extreme pain in my lower back and a killer headache. My background pain level was and 8 1/2 out of ten with constant recurring cyclical waves a pain and nausea hitting 9 1/2, close to 10. Walk day #142 did not happen.

    Yesterday was utter misery. I began to ask myself if this was worth doing. I'm retired, I stay away from people, don't go out much and have survived COVID for over a year just fine. I only did it because of some peer pressure from a few people close to me.

    Now it's Monday and my lower back pain is off the charts. I'm icing it as I type this wonder when I will be functional again. I'm not exactly what you would call in the best space right now.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Spunkie
    Spunkie i come from downtown. Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2021
    Sending you a smile, Bboy. Hang in there. I'm so happy to hear about your fantastic health habit!
    Post edited by Spunkie on
    I was swimming in the Great Barrier Reef 
    Animals were hiding behind the Coral 
    Except for little Turtle
    I could swear he's trying to talk to me 
    Gurgle Gurgle
  • Merkin Baller
    Merkin Baller Posts: 12,818
    edited April 2021
    brianlux said:
    Update: After getting Moderna shot #2 Saturday morning, we went for our daily one our of brisk walking (#141 consecutive days walking!) By the end of the day, I feeling a bit tired but no big deal. But then I woke up early Sunday morning with extreme pain in my lower back and a killer headache. My background pain level was and 8 1/2 out of ten with constant recurring cyclical waves a pain and nausea hitting 9 1/2, close to 10. Walk day #142 did not happen.

    Yesterday was utter misery. I began to ask myself if this was worth doing. I'm retired, I stay away from people, don't go out much and have survived COVID for over a year just fine. I only did it because of some peer pressure from a few people close to me.

    Now it's Monday and my lower back pain is off the charts. I'm icing it as I type this wonder when I will be functional again. I'm not exactly what you would call in the best space right now.


    I'm almost 72 hours out from my 2nd Moderna (1:15, Friday afternoon) and feeling much better than I did on Saturday & yesterday morning. Yesterday afternoon was hit or miss, while Saturday I barely got off the couch. Tylenol helped a lot.

    Hang in there man, you should be better later today or in the morning. 
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,665
    Merkin Baller said:
    brianlux said:
    Update: After getting Moderna shot #2 Saturday morning, we went for our daily one our of brisk walking (#141 consecutive days walking!) By the end of the day, I feeling a bit tired but no big deal. But then I woke up early Sunday morning with extreme pain in my lower back and a killer headache. My background pain level was and 8 1/2 out of ten with constant recurring cyclical waves a pain and nausea hitting 9 1/2, close to 10. Walk day #142 did not happen.

    Yesterday was utter misery. I began to ask myself if this was worth doing. I'm retired, I stay away from people, don't go out much and have survived COVID for over a year just fine. I only did it because of some peer pressure from a few people close to me.

    Now it's Monday and my lower back pain is off the charts. I'm icing it as I type this wonder when I will be functional again. I'm not exactly what you would call in the best space right now.


    I'm almost 72 hours out from my 2nd Moderna (1:15, Friday afternoon) and feeling much better than I did on Saturday & yesterday morning. Yesterday afternoon was hit or miss, while Saturday I barely got off the couch. Tylenol helped a lot.

    Hang in there man, you should be better later today or in the morning. 

    Glad your doing better, Merk!
    I read that it is a bad idea to take either Tylenol or Ibuprofen before the vaccination (I did neither) and that afterwords it is OK to take Tylenol but not Ibuprofen because Ibuprofen is an NSAID (non-steroidal anti inflammatory drug), and it is better not to use it.  Unfortunately, Tylenol has never helped me with pain but Ibuprofen works great for me.  I'm pretty sure I would feel better if I could take Ibuprofen.  I'm concerned now that being in bed for a day and a half has put my back out- something that is already an on-going issue.

    Well, I hope in the next day or two I am doing better.  Some people (like my sister) have almost no reaction.  For me, this vaccine has been an ass-kicker!
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Merkin Baller
    Merkin Baller Posts: 12,818
    brianlux said:
    Merkin Baller said:
    brianlux said:
    Update: After getting Moderna shot #2 Saturday morning, we went for our daily one our of brisk walking (#141 consecutive days walking!) By the end of the day, I feeling a bit tired but no big deal. But then I woke up early Sunday morning with extreme pain in my lower back and a killer headache. My background pain level was and 8 1/2 out of ten with constant recurring cyclical waves a pain and nausea hitting 9 1/2, close to 10. Walk day #142 did not happen.

    Yesterday was utter misery. I began to ask myself if this was worth doing. I'm retired, I stay away from people, don't go out much and have survived COVID for over a year just fine. I only did it because of some peer pressure from a few people close to me.

    Now it's Monday and my lower back pain is off the charts. I'm icing it as I type this wonder when I will be functional again. I'm not exactly what you would call in the best space right now.


    I'm almost 72 hours out from my 2nd Moderna (1:15, Friday afternoon) and feeling much better than I did on Saturday & yesterday morning. Yesterday afternoon was hit or miss, while Saturday I barely got off the couch. Tylenol helped a lot.

    Hang in there man, you should be better later today or in the morning. 

    Glad your doing better, Merk!
    I read that it is a bad idea to take either Tylenol or Ibuprofen before the vaccination (I did neither) and that afterwords it is OK to take Tylenol but not Ibuprofen because Ibuprofen is an NSAID (non-steroidal anti inflammatory drug), and it is better not to use it.  Unfortunately, Tylenol has never helped me with pain but Ibuprofen works great for me.  I'm pretty sure I would feel better if I could take Ibuprofen.  I'm concerned now that being in bed for a day and a half has put my back out- something that is already an on-going issue.

    Well, I hope in the next day or two I am doing better.  Some people (like my sister) have almost no reaction.  For me, this vaccine has been an ass-kicker!
    I won't lie, I'm still not 100% & have some lingering soreness, but it's nothing compared to 2 days ago. 
  • lastexitlondon
    lastexitlondon Posts: 14,929
    Taking paracetamol  based products  will stop the body raising its temp to fight the intruder. So it's a bad idea. Ride it out is the best way. Easy to say I know,AZ first dose was nasty. I held out though. Just 


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  • 23scidoo
    23scidoo Thessaloniki,Greece Posts: 20,025
    So, bars and restaurants are close for five months, caush are high level risk,right??..
    But not here yeah??..haha..



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    Prague Krakow Berlin 2018. Berlin 2022
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  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,437
    23scidoo said:
    So, bars and restaurants are close for five months, caush are high level risk,right??..
    But not here yeah??..haha..



    VIDEO Typosthes
    Well, public transit is kind of an essential service and it appears there is it least a mask mandate. Even so, you can't compare people packed in bars and sitting in restaurants maskless noshing on food for an hour to someone riding a bus with a mask on for what, 15 minutes on average? You can see the difference, right?
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,888
    tbergs said:
    23scidoo said:
    So, bars and restaurants are close for five months, caush are high level risk,right??..
    But not here yeah??..haha..



    VIDEO Typosthes
    Well, public transit is kind of an essential service and it appears there is it least a mask mandate. Even so, you can't compare people packed in bars and sitting in restaurants maskless noshing on food for an hour to someone riding a bus with a mask on for what, 15 minutes on average? You can see the difference, right?
    Well if people get the luxury of riding a public bus to work,  school,  grocery store,  then why can't I get smashed in a bar 5 days a week.  It makes no sense. 
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,665
    mrussel1 said:
    tbergs said:
    23scidoo said:
    So, bars and restaurants are close for five months, caush are high level risk,right??..
    But not here yeah??..haha..



    VIDEO Typosthes
    Well, public transit is kind of an essential service and it appears there is it least a mask mandate. Even so, you can't compare people packed in bars and sitting in restaurants maskless noshing on food for an hour to someone riding a bus with a mask on for what, 15 minutes on average? You can see the difference, right?
    Well if people get the luxury of riding a public bus to work,  school,  grocery store,  then why can't I get smashed in a bar 5 days a week.  It makes no sense. 

    Riding public transit is a luxury?  Whoa!  Man, where you live?  I wanna be there!
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Meltdown99
    Meltdown99 None Of Your Business... Posts: 10,739
    Ontario is considering moving all school boards to online learning and introducing a curfew?

    These are the days of our lives in Ontario...we have a fat ass premier running this province like a reality show.  They can not not just get their act together...

    Don’t come to Ontario if you do not have to.

    just to be clear, there is no need for online learning  in most of the province, or is there a need for a curfew...just in the hotspots.  I  am not in a hotspot...

    but Toronto is the centre of the universe, so we all have to suffer in fucking lockdown....GET YOUR SHIT TOGETHER TORONTO!!!
    Give Peas A Chance…
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