The coronavirus
Comments
-
mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
Post edited by FiveBelow on0 -
FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
I know where I live we are contacted if we have had close contact with someone who has tested positive. I have heard of many examples of people finding out they have asymptomatic covid this way.0 -
FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
So using your 40% number and calling it unreported, the math still works out to 91 million. And that's without the inevitable surge of deaths because of lack of available care.
So explain to me, using math, how my number is wrong. And give me your number. If you declared my number wrong, you must have a more accurate one.
Go.0 -
Let’s say I was on the fence about getting the vaccine. How does this incentivize me to get it?
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-how-behavior-activities-changed-after-covid-19-vaccination-2021-4?amp&__twitter_impression=true
“But for now, he still won't eat indoors at a restaurant or go to a movie theater."I don't think I would — even if I'm vaccinated — go into an indoor, crowded place where people are not wearing masks," Fauci said.
He's not planning any travel, either: "I don't really see myself going on any fun trips for a while," he said.“
0 -
gvn2fly1421 said:Let’s say I was on the fence about getting the vaccine. How does this incentivize me to get it?
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-how-behavior-activities-changed-after-covid-19-vaccination-2021-4?amp&__twitter_impression=true
“But for now, he still won't eat indoors at a restaurant or go to a movie theater."I don't think I would — even if I'm vaccinated — go into an indoor, crowded place where people are not wearing masks," Fauci said.
He's not planning any travel, either: "I don't really see myself going on any fun trips for a while," he said.“
0 -
going to hazard a guess and say until we've reached vaccinated herd immunity, he isnt willing to put people at risk.its my understanding that the vaccine prevents hospitalization. that a vaccinated person can still be a carrier of the virus, spreading it to others._____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '140 -
Ahahaha.
29 pounds.
Damn, we fat mofos.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/fitness-companies-surge-in-demand-as-americans-rush-to-lose-covid-weight.html
I hope people get rid of that. Adding almost thirty pounds on average is not the way to live.The love he receives is the love that is saved0 -
dignin said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
I know where I live we are contacted if we have had close contact with someone who has tested positive. I have heard of many examples of people finding out they have asymptomatic covid this way.my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf0 -
gvn2fly1421 said:Let’s say I was on the fence about getting the vaccine. How does this incentivize me to get it?
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-how-behavior-activities-changed-after-covid-19-vaccination-2021-4?amp&__twitter_impression=true
“But for now, he still won't eat indoors at a restaurant or go to a movie theater."I don't think I would — even if I'm vaccinated — go into an indoor, crowded place where people are not wearing masks," Fauci said.
He's not planning any travel, either: "I don't really see myself going on any fun trips for a while," he said.“
Post edited by Halifax2TheMax on09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©0 -
Got Moderna vaccination #2 about 7 1/2 hours ago. So far, achy back and fatigue. This things feels like it wants to kick my ass. The thing is though, I've made it through the pandemic without Covid or any other illness. It's been good while since I've had any kind of bug, so I'm really putting up a fight but, damn, this vaccination is nipping at my heels.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
brianlux said:Got Moderna vaccination #2 about 7 1/2 hours ago. So far, achy back and fatigue. This things feels like it wants to kick my ass. The thing is though, I've made it through the pandemic without Covid or any other illness. It's been good while since I've had any kind of bug, so I'm really putting up a fight but, damn, this vaccination is nipping at my heels.0
-
gvn2fly1421 said:Let’s say I was on the fence about getting the vaccine. How does this incentivize me to get it?
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-how-behavior-activities-changed-after-covid-19-vaccination-2021-4?amp&__twitter_impression=true
“But for now, he still won't eat indoors at a restaurant or go to a movie theater."I don't think I would — even if I'm vaccinated — go into an indoor, crowded place where people are not wearing masks," Fauci said.
He's not planning any travel, either: "I don't really see myself going on any fun trips for a while," he said.“
0 -
F Me In The Brain said:Ahahaha.
29 pounds.
Damn, we fat mofos.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/fitness-companies-surge-in-demand-as-americans-rush-to-lose-covid-weight.html
I hope people get rid of that. Adding almost thirty pounds on average is not the way to live.I’m fortunate that I’ve neither lost nor gained during the past plus-year (weightwise, anyway).0 -
mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
So using your 40% number and calling it unreported, the math still works out to 91 million. And that's without the inevitable surge of deaths because of lack of available care.
So explain to me, using math, how my number is wrong. And give me your number. If you declared my number wrong, you must have a more accurate one.
Go.Stop.0 -
FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
So using your 40% number and calling it unreported, the math still works out to 91 million. And that's without the inevitable surge of deaths because of lack of available care.
So explain to me, using math, how my number is wrong. And give me your number. If you declared my number wrong, you must have a more accurate one.
Go.Stop.
And last, most importantly, I didn't try to pass it off as "fact". How can a hypothetical number be a "fact"? It's an argument about whether herd immunity should have been undertaken. I used CDC and WHO numbers to calculate a possible death number for herd. That's why I don't care if it's 122, 91 or 50 million. These are all unacceptable numbers. So unless you come up with a number that's acceptable under herd immunity, why are you wasting my time?
0 -
mrussel1 said:brianlux said:Got Moderna vaccination #2 about 7 1/2 hours ago. So far, achy back and fatigue. This things feels like it wants to kick my ass. The thing is though, I've made it through the pandemic without Covid or any other illness. It's been good while since I've had any kind of bug, so I'm really putting up a fight but, damn, this vaccination is nipping at my heels.Thanks, M!We made our consecutive day #141 of our one hour per day of brisk walking today but it was only a couple hours after the injection. By the end of the hour I was beat. Will we be able to make day 142 tomorrow? I hope so, but not certain. Feeling pretty roughed up right now."It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0
-
FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
So using your 40% number and calling it unreported, the math still works out to 91 million. And that's without the inevitable surge of deaths because of lack of available care.
So explain to me, using math, how my number is wrong. And give me your number. If you declared my number wrong, you must have a more accurate one.
Go.Stop.
Is 4.8M acceptable?
Im just asking.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©0 -
Glacier melt gonna melt.
Cancer gonna cancer.
Car accidents gonna accident.
Poison gonna poison.
Overdose gonna dose.
Guns gonna gun.
War is gonna war.
Death is gonna death.
Virus is gonna virussssssss.
Show me where Matt Getts Off touched you on the POOTWH Doll.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©0 -
Cuba vs Pharma
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/04/10/cuba-may-become-the-smallest-country-to-make-covid-19-vaccines
Athens 2006. Dusseldorf 2007. Berlin 2009. Venice 2010. Amsterdam 1 2012. Amsterdam 1+2 2014. Buenos Aires 2015.
Prague Krakow Berlin 2018. Berlin 2022
EV, Taormina 1+2 2017.
I wish i was the souvenir you kept your house key on..0 -
FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:FiveBelow said:mrussel1 said:gvn2fly1421 said:If Donald John Trump was still in office and was touting his “warp speed, big and beautiful vaccine”, I have to think this thread would have a different tone based on most of the responses here. I feel like most, not all, are so blinded by your politics you cannot think critically.
122 million dead under herd strategy. That's what you're advocating. And you advocate it AFTER knowing the death toll and that we have multiple vaccines.
- Asymptomatic cases are in the numbers I estimated. If you're saying "undocumented cases", where are you coming up with those 40-45% number of COVID cases that are undocumented?
-If you were president, what data would you have used to determine whether herd immunity is the right strategy?
- using your validated numbers (link please), how many deaths would you calculate from herd immunity?
And what number would be your inflection point to determine the number of acceptable human deaths?
Now to be sure, there's an MOE in the numbers I provided, but what is that margin? Is it +/- 5%? 10? Or are you saying it's orders of magnitude off,
Edit - if if you're right that cases are understated by 40%, which you've provided no evidence, that would bring the mortality rate down to 1.5%. And therefore the number of deaths would be 91.5 million.
If my number is wrong, even using your data, then show me your calculations.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937297
So using your 40% number and calling it unreported, the math still works out to 91 million. And that's without the inevitable surge of deaths because of lack of available care.
So explain to me, using math, how my number is wrong. And give me your number. If you declared my number wrong, you must have a more accurate one.
Go.Stop.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/serology-in-the-context-of-covid-19
Regarding the first resource posted, projecting infection fatality rate is no different than any other projection. It involves the collection of a sample, the estimation of its over/under-effectiveness and the possible differences between the sample and the population, and the correction of that estimate through a bias understanding and countering mechanism. In the case of viruses, it's serology.
From the second resource posted, here's the explanation of serology:"Serologic tests measure the antibody response in an individual. Antibodies to COVID-19 are produced over days to weeks after infection with the virus. The presence of antibodies indicates that a person was infected with the COVID-19 virus, irrespective of whether the individual had severe or mild disease, or even asymptomatic infection. Surveillance of antibody seropositivity in a population can allow inferences to be made about the extent of infection and about the cumulative incidence of infection in the population. The use of serology in epidemiology and public health research enables understanding of:
- the occurrence of infection among different populations;
- how many people have mild or asymptomatic infection, and who may not have been identified by routine disease surveillance;
- the proportion of fatal infections among those infected;
- the proportion of the population who may be protected against infection in the future"
It sounds to me like some are conflating the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) with the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Additionally, some are falsely assuming that these serological studies were somehow neglected by a global leader in critical statistical information collection, and that only we on the Pearl Jam forums knew better.
If there are debates to be had regarding CoVID-19's performance (because for some reason, some of us are still questioning what we see and hear and feel with our own senses all around us), it should be related to potential shortcomings in the Infection Fatality Rate calculation, or deficiencies in the serological studies. Anything else would seem to be less relevant.'05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2
EV
Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 10
Categories
- All Categories
- 148.8K Pearl Jam's Music and Activism
- 110K The Porch
- 274 Vitalogy
- 35K Given To Fly (live)
- 3.5K Words and Music...Communication
- 39.1K Flea Market
- 39.1K Lost Dogs
- 58.7K Not Pearl Jam's Music
- 10.6K Musicians and Gearheads
- 29.1K Other Music
- 17.8K Poetry, Prose, Music & Art
- 1.1K The Art Wall
- 56.7K Non-Pearl Jam Discussion
- 22.2K A Moving Train
- 31.7K All Encompassing Trip
- 2.9K Technical Stuff and Help