If I heard correctly it even covers payroll for 4 months up to 100k per employee? is that right?
Is there a link to this? I didn't see that listed in the stories I read but people are citing some specifics that would suggest the text of the bill is out there for review.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
Yeah, I hear ya. When a guy like that shares a chart like that with no context beyond "worst outbreak anywhere," they should be launched into the sun. People are jumpy right now.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
If I heard correctly it even covers payroll for 4 months up to 100k per employee? is that right?
Is there a link to this? I didn't see that listed in the stories I read but people are citing some specifics that would suggest the text of the bill is out there for review.
If I heard correctly it even covers payroll for 4 months up to 100k per employee? is that right?
Is there a link to this? I didn't see that listed in the stories I read but people are citing some specifics that would suggest the text of the bill is out there for review.
What do you need? Do you fall under self employment, or having a struggling business? Just wondering.....it really sucks that it won’t help you out. I wrote my idiot congressmen, not sure if it helped at all but it is good to get your specific needs out there to people crafting these bills.
Only links to bad news in this thread please. This is a no optimism zone.
An excerpt from that vague article:
“What we need is to control the panic … we’re going to be fine,” assured Levitt, who correctly predicted early on that China would get through the worst of the outbreak by mid-February.
His optimistic report on China said the country would peak with around 80,000 cases and 3,250 deaths. He was not far off: China has reported 81,588 cases with 3,281 deaths as of March 24."
Yes, we do need to control the panic, but comparing us to China at this point would be mostly inaccurate since China took drastic measures and locked down everything. That might be an important difference to highlight and insert the caveat that we would be on the same path if the entire country was currently doing the same. Of course this isn't the end of the world, I don't know that I've heard anyone say that, but let's not minimize the possibility of over a million people dying from this.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
Because it’s info that’s fairly easy to follow and updated regularly from a trusted source.
Where are they getting the 2,000,000 number? Sounds like bad info from the first line.
If you read the article he explains where his projections come from. He is estimating 1 death for every 125 people infected and then extrapolating based on the reported number of deaths. He puts the death rate at .8 - 1.0%. Much lower than what many had believed at one point when it was closer to 4 and 5.
First world problems I know but something just hit me hard: I won’t be able to my son on his birthday Thursday. My ex is a nurse practitioner in the trenches with all this. We agreed to keep him with her until this all this passes. Haven’t seen him in almost two weeks and I am cool with that but missing his birthday, god damn I am crushed.
being with family is not a first world problem, mike. it would crush the best of us. two weeks away from my kids, birthday or not, would be enough to do me in. stay strong. and don't feel guilty about being sad about it. he's your son.
I highly agree, missed my brother ( brother in law but I consider him a brother ) 40th birthday that was just him , my sister and their kids , missed my nephews 9th birthday a week ago.
My mom is a cancer survivor with pre existing lung issues , we Facetime ever night but she is now on day 21 inside her apartment , I miss her more than I can say , I still get to see her but just wanted to hug her. I have a very close knit family and we at least had a plan in place , we take turns getting groceries for her. Place them at her door and say we love her. Once we leave she brings them in with plastic gloves on and throws away all the bags and wash's the cans and other food containers. I think some of our friends thought we were crazy a few weeks ago starting this but at this point at least my mom has not had contact with anyone for three weeks.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
Because it’s info that’s fairly easy to follow and updated regularly from a trusted source.
Where are they getting the 2,000,000 number? Sounds like bad info from the first line.
If you read the article he explains where his projections come from. He is estimating 1 death for every 125 people infected and then extrapolating based on the reported number of deaths. He puts the death rate at .8 - 1.0%. Much lower than what many had believed at one point when it was closer to 4 and 5.
I still don’t see where he gets the 2mil number from. Even with very liberal estimates it would be hard to imagine reaching half that.
First world problems I know but something just hit me hard: I won’t be able to my son on his birthday Thursday. My ex is a nurse practitioner in the trenches with all this. We agreed to keep him with her until this all this passes. Haven’t seen him in almost two weeks and I am cool with that but missing his birthday, god damn I am crushed.
being with family is not a first world problem, mike. it would crush the best of us. two weeks away from my kids, birthday or not, would be enough to do me in. stay strong. and don't feel guilty about being sad about it. he's your son.
I highly agree, missed my brother ( brother in law but I consider him a brother ) 40th birthday that was just him , my sister and their kids , missed my nephews 9th birthday a week ago.
My mom is a cancer survivor with pre existing lung issues , we Facetime ever night but she is now on day 21 inside her apartment , I miss her more than I can say , I still get to see her but just wanted to hug her. I have a very close knit family and we at least had a plan in place , we take turns getting groceries for her. Place them at her door and say we love her. Once we leave she brings them in with plastic gloves on and throws away all the bags and wash's the cans and other food containers. I think some of our friends thought we were crazy a few weeks ago starting this but at this point at least my mom has not had contact with anyone for three weeks.
If I heard correctly it even covers payroll for 4 months up to 100k per employee? is that right?
Is there a link to this? I didn't see that listed in the stories I read but people are citing some specifics that would suggest the text of the bill is out there for review.
Sorry, I thought you mean the link doesn't help. Sounds like you're saying the bill doesn't help you. I think people who own a small business and have taken the historic practice of a small salary while expensing lots of things back to the business will not be helped as much with this bill. People who lived off accurately reported and taxed salary numbers will be assisted.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
Because it’s info that’s fairly easy to follow and updated regularly from a trusted source.
Where are they getting the 2,000,000 number? Sounds like bad info from the first line.
If you read the article he explains where his projections come from. He is estimating 1 death for every 125 people infected and then extrapolating based on the reported number of deaths. He puts the death rate at .8 - 1.0%. Much lower than what many had believed at one point when it was closer to 4 and 5.
I still don’t see where he gets the 2mil number from. Even with very liberal estimates it would be hard to imagine reaching half that.
This excerpt breaks it down pretty good:
"Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate]."
That's how it gets to the 2 million infected number. And using the link you provided his estimates for March 26th will actually be much higher so he may be on the low end of the estimate or off on the death rate.
This is currently where that link you posted has the USA:
The 859 is deaths as of now.
*And just for clarity, he posted this article on March 20th, when the death total was at 205.
If I heard correctly it even covers payroll for 4 months up to 100k per employee? is that right?
Is there a link to this? I didn't see that listed in the stories I read but people are citing some specifics that would suggest the text of the bill is out there for review.
What do you need? Do you fall under self employment, or having a struggling business? Just wondering.....it really sucks that it won’t help you out. I wrote my idiot congressmen, not sure if it helped at all but it is good to get your specific needs out there to people crafting these bills.
If I am reading it right, I am over the annual salary exemption so I don't get anything.
Living in NY I get the short end of the stick a lot...
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
Because it’s info that’s fairly easy to follow and updated regularly from a trusted source.
Where are they getting the 2,000,000 number? Sounds like bad info from the first line.
If you read the article he explains where his projections come from. He is estimating 1 death for every 125 people infected and then extrapolating based on the reported number of deaths. He puts the death rate at .8 - 1.0%. Much lower than what many had believed at one point when it was closer to 4 and 5.
I still don’t see where he gets the 2mil number from. Even with very liberal estimates it would be hard to imagine reaching half that.
This excerpt breaks it down pretty good:
"Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate]."
That's how it gets to the 2 million infected number. And using the link you provided his estimates for March 26th will actually be much higher so he may be on the low end of the estimate or off on the death rate.
This is currently where that link you posted has the USA:
The 859 is deaths as of now.
*And just for clarity, he posted this article on March 20th, when the death total was at 205.
I think I get it. So making an educated guess on the actual death rate and working backwards from number of deaths to make up for lack of testing?
If I heard correctly it even covers payroll for 4 months up to 100k per employee? is that right?
Is there a link to this? I didn't see that listed in the stories I read but people are citing some specifics that would suggest the text of the bill is out there for review.
What do you need? Do you fall under self employment, or having a struggling business? Just wondering.....it really sucks that it won’t help you out. I wrote my idiot congressmen, not sure if it helped at all but it is good to get your specific needs out there to people crafting these bills.
If I am reading it right, I am over the annual salary exemption so I don't get anything.
Living in NY I get the short end of the stick a lot...
Well that sucks. Has your work or pay been impacted by this at all yet? Based on what I read, my family will receive around $3400, but my job has not been impacted as of yet so while I don't mind the boost, I am not one of the people who most needs it.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
Because it’s info that’s fairly easy to follow and updated regularly from a trusted source.
Where are they getting the 2,000,000 number? Sounds like bad info from the first line.
If you read the article he explains where his projections come from. He is estimating 1 death for every 125 people infected and then extrapolating based on the reported number of deaths. He puts the death rate at .8 - 1.0%. Much lower than what many had believed at one point when it was closer to 4 and 5.
I still don’t see where he gets the 2mil number from. Even with very liberal estimates it would be hard to imagine reaching half that.
Let's hope you're right. But the US put measures in place too slow. And don't have enough testing to get real, good numbers. Which I think is larger point of the article. We are underestimating the effect that is coming in the next couple weeks.
Some quick napkin math (disclaimer) I did with the countries who have the most cases. The US has a very high number of Deaths/1M, when compared to known Cases/1M. This leads the author to believe there are a lot of undiagnosed cases out there.
Essentially, we have a lot of catching up to do in the next couple weeks.
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
Because it’s info that’s fairly easy to follow and updated regularly from a trusted source.
Where are they getting the 2,000,000 number? Sounds like bad info from the first line.
If you read the article he explains where his projections come from. He is estimating 1 death for every 125 people infected and then extrapolating based on the reported number of deaths. He puts the death rate at .8 - 1.0%. Much lower than what many had believed at one point when it was closer to 4 and 5.
I still don’t see where he gets the 2mil number from. Even with very liberal estimates it would be hard to imagine reaching half that.
This excerpt breaks it down pretty good:
"Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate]."
That's how it gets to the 2 million infected number. And using the link you provided his estimates for March 26th will actually be much higher so he may be on the low end of the estimate or off on the death rate.
This is currently where that link you posted has the USA:
The 859 is deaths as of now.
*And just for clarity, he posted this article on March 20th, when the death total was at 205.
I think I get it. So making an educated guess on the actual death rate and working backwards from number of deaths to make up for lack of testing?
That is correct. The lack of testing has really fucked up our ability to handle a response to this virus and made a lot of people drag their feet on how serious it is because so many are basing it just on who has been tested.
If I heard correctly it even covers payroll for 4 months up to 100k per employee? is that right?
Is there a link to this? I didn't see that listed in the stories I read but people are citing some specifics that would suggest the text of the bill is out there for review.
What do you need? Do you fall under self employment, or having a struggling business? Just wondering.....it really sucks that it won’t help you out. I wrote my idiot congressmen, not sure if it helped at all but it is good to get your specific needs out there to people crafting these bills.
If I am reading it right, I am over the annual salary exemption so I don't get anything.
Living in NY I get the short end of the stick a lot...
Well that sucks. Has your work or pay been impacted by this at all yet? Based on what I read, my family will receive around $3400, but my job has not been impacted as of yet so while I don't mind the boost, I am not one of the people who most needs it.
Wait, does everyone get this check or just unemployed?
It would be more helpful if they shared charts that measured per capita. Of course we're going to have more cases than most of those countries.
I think it would be better if everybody found an accurate source and stuck with it. Too many people clearly have trouble applying the info from these graphs to the situation. Having legitimate information has eased my anxiety on the situation quite a bit.
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
Because it’s info that’s fairly easy to follow and updated regularly from a trusted source.
Where are they getting the 2,000,000 number? Sounds like bad info from the first line.
If you read the article he explains where his projections come from. He is estimating 1 death for every 125 people infected and then extrapolating based on the reported number of deaths. He puts the death rate at .8 - 1.0%. Much lower than what many had believed at one point when it was closer to 4 and 5.
I still don’t see where he gets the 2mil number from. Even with very liberal estimates it would be hard to imagine reaching half that.
This excerpt breaks it down pretty good:
"Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate]."
That's how it gets to the 2 million infected number. And using the link you provided his estimates for March 26th will actually be much higher so he may be on the low end of the estimate or off on the death rate.
This is currently where that link you posted has the USA:
The 859 is deaths as of now.
*And just for clarity, he posted this article on March 20th, when the death total was at 205.
I think I get it. So making an educated guess on the actual death rate and working backwards from number of deaths to make up for lack of testing?
Comments
it's a logarithmic scale on the y-axis
Not sure how this data is easing anxiety.....it's terrifying information an should be treated as such
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html
"The attacks on 9/11 killed around 3000 people. We will be reporting a 9/11 every three days. That’s why we say “hell is coming”."
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
“What we need is to control the panic … we’re going to be fine,” assured Levitt, who correctly predicted early on that China would get through the worst of the outbreak by mid-February.
His optimistic report on China said the country would peak with around 80,000 cases and 3,250 deaths. He was not far off: China has reported 81,588 cases with 3,281 deaths as of March 24."
Yes, we do need to control the panic, but comparing us to China at this point would be mostly inaccurate since China took drastic measures and locked down everything. That might be an important difference to highlight and insert the caveat that we would be on the same path if the entire country was currently doing the same. Of course this isn't the end of the world, I don't know that I've heard anyone say that, but let's not minimize the possibility of over a million people dying from this.
I highly agree, missed my brother ( brother in law but I consider him a brother ) 40th birthday that was just him , my sister and their kids , missed my nephews 9th birthday a week ago.
My mom is a cancer survivor with pre existing lung issues , we Facetime ever night but she is now on day 21 inside her apartment , I miss her more than I can say , I still get to see her but just wanted to hug her. I have a very close knit family and we at least had a plan in place , we take turns getting groceries for her. Place them at her door and say we love her. Once we leave she brings them in with plastic gloves on and throws away all the bags and wash's the cans and other food containers. I think some of our friends thought we were crazy a few weeks ago starting this but at this point at least my mom has not had contact with anyone for three weeks.
Cant wait to hug every person I know when I can.
"Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate]."
That's how it gets to the 2 million infected number. And using the link you provided his estimates for March 26th will actually be much higher so he may be on the low end of the estimate or off on the death rate.
This is currently where that link you posted has the USA:
The 859 is deaths as of now.*And just for clarity, he posted this article on March 20th, when the death total was at 205.
Living in NY I get the short end of the stick a lot...
Let's hope you're right. But the US put measures in place too slow. And don't have enough testing to get real, good numbers. Which I think is larger point of the article. We are underestimating the effect that is coming in the next couple weeks.
Some quick napkin math (disclaimer) I did with the countries who have the most cases. The US has a very high number of Deaths/1M, when compared to known Cases/1M. This leads the author to believe there are a lot of undiagnosed cases out there.
Essentially, we have a lot of catching up to do in the next couple weeks.