Is the screenshot showing the 99% odds a screenshot of the odds when the entry was submitted? If so, odds could have dropped much lower.
I don’t recall if Toronto reserved dropped below 99% by the end of entry period. I assume it did. If it didn’t, obviously I have no explanation and feel we definitely all need to understand how 99% doesn’t equal best available tickets.
The last update reported to this forum was every show seating had 99% odds except for ny and bal.
That's why there are a ton of posts on this topic.
I’ve been shut out before and it sucks. But like 100 pacer said, tickets will pop up. you just need to be on the ball and checking the forum for extras. I don’t see 10c doing much at this point but who knows It’s always worth a shot.
Good luck, I’m sure you’ll get in.
The thing is though the forum will be different this time around with the face to fan set up. Before we could sell and meet up at the venue. Now sales will go into a pot and someone random is going to be buying it.
Yeah that’s right, forgot about that. I heard that even people not apart of the fan club can score these seats. That’s really shitty if an 10c member gets shut out and some random joe gets fan club seats.
I think the 99% in the screenshot refers to the odds at the time they put the request in. Those shows had lower odds by the end (for GA definitely, not sure about reserved).
I had Toronto BA as 1st choice. I received my email confirmation at 11:46pmEST last evening. I was following along on the lottery results thread (and refreshing my email) throughout the entire evening, and could see people reporting that they had just received their Toronto 2nd choice email (even one 3rd choice) before I had received my confirmation email. I was under the impression that they were going to empty the entire first choice bucket before moving on to people's second or third choices. It seems like there were other unnamed factors that went into the order in which winners were selected.
I am a relatively high membership number (in 2018) and submitted my picks on Wednesday afternoon.
Okay, just spit balling and also having a total panic attack.
What if, as a user you click on GA, then clicked on Reserved, which did trigger the BEST AVAILABLE, and in Ticketmasters system that assumed the choice to be only GA, ie it really was not a best available selection in their system, it just followed your first selection.
I can't fucking imagine they did not think that through, but it seems like the only plausible explanation to someone who HAD best available but essentially did it by selecting both the radio buttons vs just hitting the BA slider.
Which is almost certainly what I did which makes me sick to my stomach that I am going to lose.
Just looked again at the email I read this morning about not getting tickets. The email was only in reference to not getting tickets for the Hamilton show. It did not say anything about the Toronto show?
Anyone with a rejection email know if it states all the shows you selected in the email?
Each show is a separate email.
Hi Jo, thinking back to the 2016 odds the Canada shows didnt all have 99%?
I'm thinking the odds were off but that doesn't explain how there are winners in round 4 and losers in round 1
This is shaping up as a potential problem for everyone who thinks they "won" tickets yesterday
I think it’s becoming more clear that the straightforward 10c lottery we all know and love has been replaced by some sort of TM fuckery...exactly what level of fuckery still remains to be seen
The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.
That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice. So no, it's not an odds issue.
LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.
So you are suggesting the the priority that you put on your request is meaningless? That's the only way your idea of "he just didn't picked" would make any sense at all. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here.
I am suggesting that when they stuck their hand in the bag to pull out a name, his was not pulled. Nobody really knows the process. Its a crapshoot and always has been. Pontificating the why is a waste of time.
I get that and you really do never know but why are you ignoring how the system is supposed to work? Priority is priority and we choose some shows ahead of others for a reason. There is no way a 3rd pick for TO should win and a 1st pick loses. That is a broken system and should be fixed.
Okay, just spit balling and also having a total panic attack.
What if, as a user you click on GA, then clicked on Reserved, which did trigger the BEST AVAILABLE, and in Ticketmasters system that assumed the choice to be only GA, ie it really was not a best available selection in their system, it just followed your first selection.
I can't fucking imagine they did not think that through, but it seems like the only plausible explanation to someone who HAD best available but essentially did it by selecting both the radio buttons vs just hitting the BA slider.
Which is almost certainly what I did which makes me sick to my stomach that I am going to lose.
No. They aren’t tracking your individual clicks. Take a breath.
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The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.
That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice. So no, it's not an odds issue.
LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.
Correct. Other unknown factors:
How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club. Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others?
How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?
How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?
No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.
sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.
I think it’s becoming more clear that the straightforward 10c lottery we all know and love has been replaced by some sort of TM fuckery...exactly what level of fuckery still remains to be seen
Remains to be seen. We’ve had all these same complaints before when ten club was running the lottery. Check some of the past posts from other tours. All of these issues have occurred in the past.
1996: Randall's Island 2 1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2 2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel 2005: Atlantic City 1 2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Newark (EV) 2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4 2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2 2011: Toronto 1 2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore 2015: Central Park 2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD) 2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF) 2020: MSG | Asbury Park2021: Asbury Park 2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville 2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore
I just re-read the rules again - no where in the actual rules delivered by 10c does it specifically state that your ticketmaster & 10c emails have to match, that your first & last name need to match exactly. If that's the case, it wasn't clearly listed, anywhere.
or you can come to terms and realize you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah... makes much more sense to live in the present tense...
So far from what I gather from these paragraphs-long responses are that:
1. We understand this is a lottery, and
2. There's no reason a number 1 pick for city A should lose when a number 3 pick for city A wins. This defeats the priority system's purpose.
Saying that "sometimes you win, sometimes you lose" doesn't really seem to fit in this equation.
2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II 2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
Okay, just spit balling and also having a total panic attack.
What if, as a user you click on GA, then clicked on Reserved, which did trigger the BEST AVAILABLE, and in Ticketmasters system that assumed the choice to be only GA, ie it really was not a best available selection in their system, it just followed your first selection.
I can't fucking imagine they did not think that through, but it seems like the only plausible explanation to someone who HAD best available but essentially did it by selecting both the radio buttons vs just hitting the BA slider.
Which is almost certainly what I did which makes me sick to my stomach that I am going to lose.
No. They aren’t tracking your individual clicks. Take a breath.
I am breathing. Just panicking. Really, I am just trying to wrap my head around how someone could lose best available for 4 shows that had 99% odds, doesn't make sense.
Side note my buddy didn’t have his Ticketmaster account in line with his 10 club account and his “loser” email said they just couldn’t fulfill his order. Not that he made a user error
The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.
That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice. So no, it's not an odds issue.
LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.
Correct. Other unknown factors:
How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club. Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others?
How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?
How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?
No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.
sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.
How do we know that the persons not selected as first priority in first round even got automatically bumped into the second round pot... If they didn’t, then they would never be chosen for that show in any subsequent rounds.
The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.
That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice. So no, it's not an odds issue.
LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.
So you are suggesting the the priority that you put on your request is meaningless? That's the only way your idea of "he just didn't picked" would make any sense at all. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here.
I am suggesting that when they stuck their hand in the bag to pull out a name, his was not pulled. Nobody really knows the process. Its a crapshoot and always has been. Pontificating the why is a waste of time.
I get that and you really do never know but why are you ignoring how the system is supposed to work? Priority is priority and we choose some shows ahead of others for a reason. There is no way a 3rd pick for TO should win and a 1st pick loses. That is a broken system and should be fixed.
This is the point that everyone explaining this a “bad luck” seems to be missing. Pretty cut and dry with how we know and have always known the lottery to work.
Side note my buddy didn’t have his Ticketmaster account in line with his 10 club account and his “loser” email said they just couldn’t fulfill his order. Not that he made a user error
Need to repost this, could be very key.
Is this possibly what happened, moses-i?
IF that's the case, as I just mentioned... no where in the rules did it state: Your 10c and Ticketmaster email addresses need to match as well as the exact first and last name between your two accounts - align those two or you may have issues... type thing. No where was that called out.
If you chose any of the shows that they haven't drawn yet, go in and make sure these are aligned
or you can come to terms and realize you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah... makes much more sense to live in the present tense...
Just looked again at the email I read this morning about not getting tickets. The email was only in reference to not getting tickets for the Hamilton show. It did not say anything about the Toronto show?
Anyone with a rejection email know if it states all the shows you selected in the email?
Each show is a separate email.
Hi Jo, thinking back to the 2016 odds the Canada shows didnt all have 99%?
I'm thinking the odds were off but that doesn't explain how there are winners in round 4 and losers in round 1
This is shaping up as a potential problem for everyone who thinks they "won" tickets yesterday
For 2016 odds... Quebec 44/84 Ottawa 28/56 Toronto 11/37
"I got memories, I got shit"
ISO 2016 Greenville shirt. Size medium. PM me if you have one for sale/trade.
The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.
That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice. So no, it's not an odds issue.
LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.
Correct. Other unknown factors:
How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club. Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others?
How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?
How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?
No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.
sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.
They do not do it that way. Why are we complicating things.
If there is 5000 pairs to be won and 10,000 people put in for them odds are at 50%
They draw first priority first (crazy I know). Lets say 4000 people put in as a first pick. All of those people are selected and win their show thus giving them all 100% true odds.
They then move on to second priority (crazy again I know) Lets say 4000 people put in for it as a second pick. Only 1000 pairs are left so only 25% of these people are going to win. Their true odds are 25% and the majority of the second picks lose out.
3rd and 4th get nothing since there are no more tickets left and their true odds are 0%.
The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.
That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice. So no, it's not an odds issue.
LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.
Correct. Other unknown factors:
How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club. Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others?
How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?
How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?
No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.
sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.
Thanks for reading this topic carefully before that long comment. The odds have always been simple. And the odds were never before 99% for most shows. So simple explanation is the odds are wrong
But that does not explain how 2 fans lost 4 shows total that were 99%, including first and second priority picks where others won tickets with 3rd and 4th picks.
If you have statistical proof how that is a valid occurance in a random 99% draw, please share.
The odds are BS and demand for this tour will be higher than ever. Demand exceeds supply which means that some people will not get tickets. That is all, there is your explanation.
That WOULD make sense... if TOR weren't his 1st choice, and others got in with TOR as their 3rd choice. So no, it's not an odds issue.
LOTTERY - a process whose success or outcome is governed by chance. Sometimes your name is called, sometimes it is not. It is not complicated.
Correct. Other unknown factors:
How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club. Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others?
How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?
How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?
No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.
sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.
They do not do it that way. Why are we complicating things.
If there is 5000 pairs to be won and 10,000 people put in for them odds are at 50%
They draw first priority first (crazy I know). Lets say 4000 people put in as a first pick. All of those people are selected and win their show thus giving them all 100% true odds.
They then move on to second priority (crazy again I know) Lets say 4000 people put in for it as a second pick. Only 1000 pairs are left so only 25% of these people are going to win. Their true odds are 25% and the majority of the second picks lose out.
3rd and 4th get nothing since there are no more tickets left and their true odds are 0%.
Could you simplify this, please?
2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II 2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
Comments
The last update reported to this forum was every show seating had 99% odds except for ny and bal.
That's why there are a ton of posts on this topic.
What if, as a user you click on GA, then clicked on Reserved, which did trigger the BEST AVAILABLE, and in Ticketmasters system that assumed the choice to be only GA, ie it really was not a best available selection in their system, it just followed your first selection.
I can't fucking imagine they did not think that through, but it seems like the only plausible explanation to someone who HAD best available but essentially did it by selecting both the radio buttons vs just hitting the BA slider.
Which is almost certainly what I did which makes me sick to my stomach that I am going to lose.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652
ISO 2016 Greenville shirt. Size medium. PM me if you have one for sale/trade.
I'm thinking the odds were off but that doesn't explain how there are winners in round 4 and losers in round 1
This is shaping up as a potential problem for everyone who thinks they "won" tickets yesterday
How many tickets per venue were actually allocated to the 10club. Were identical amounts allocated for each venue? Were more tickets secured for some venues and less at others?
How were the ticket odds actually calculated? How often were the odds being updated? Was there a large last minute submittal of ticket requests that would have caused the actual odds to be off at the moment of the draw and the site was not updated? How were submissions of “best available” classified in the odds, or were they even included in the odds calculation?
How were the ticket draws actually done? Let’s say there were 5,000 tickets per venue available. And they put 3000 tickets in the “first priority” draw. Those who had first priority, but not selected got bumped into “second priority” draw with 1000 tickets with all the people who had made that selection, and so on?
No one here actually knows how the draw went. No where in any communication was there language that everyone would be guaranteed tickets if the odds showed 99%. If someone really sleuthed around the ticket site they’d probably find language stating that the reflected odds may not be accurate or considered accurate.
sometimes people get lucky, sometimes things suck.
you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah...
makes much more sense to live in the present tense...
1995: 7/11 (Chicago) 2009: 8/23, 8/24 (Chicago) 2010: 5/9 (Cleveland) 2013 7/19 (Chicago) 2016: 4/9 (Miami), 5/1 (NYC), 8/20 & 8/22 (Chicago)
2018: 8/18 (Chicago) & 8/20 (Chicago) 2022: 9/11 (NYC), 9/18 (STL) 2023: 9/5 (Chicago), 9/7 (Chicago) 2024: 8/29 (Chicago), 8/31 (Chicago)
2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652
Is this possibly what happened, moses-i?
If you chose any of the shows that they haven't drawn yet, go in and make sure these are aligned
you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah...
makes much more sense to live in the present tense...
1995: 7/11 (Chicago) 2009: 8/23, 8/24 (Chicago) 2010: 5/9 (Cleveland) 2013 7/19 (Chicago) 2016: 4/9 (Miami), 5/1 (NYC), 8/20 & 8/22 (Chicago)
2018: 8/18 (Chicago) & 8/20 (Chicago) 2022: 9/11 (NYC), 9/18 (STL) 2023: 9/5 (Chicago), 9/7 (Chicago) 2024: 8/29 (Chicago), 8/31 (Chicago)
Quebec 44/84
Ottawa 28/56
Toronto 11/37
ISO 2016 Greenville shirt. Size medium. PM me if you have one for sale/trade.
If there is 5000 pairs to be won and 10,000 people put in for them odds are at 50%
They draw first priority first (crazy I know). Lets say 4000 people put in as a first pick. All of those people are selected and win their show thus giving them all 100% true odds.
They then move on to second priority (crazy again I know) Lets say 4000 people put in for it as a second pick. Only 1000 pairs are left so only 25% of these people are going to win. Their true odds are 25% and the majority of the second picks lose out.
3rd and 4th get nothing since there are no more tickets left and their true odds are 0%.
Thanks for reading this topic carefully before that long comment. The odds have always been simple. And the odds were never before 99% for most shows. So simple explanation is the odds are wrong
But that does not explain how 2 fans lost 4 shows total that were 99%, including first and second priority picks where others won tickets with 3rd and 4th picks.
If you have statistical proof how that is a valid occurance in a random 99% draw, please share.
2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich