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2020 Fall North American rumour thread

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  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,959
    tdawe said:
    Zod said:
    I don't think they're going to abolish GA.  For a few reasons:

    1)  I don't think it really matters if you're in GA or Seated at a big event.  You're still going to be close to tonnes of people around you.    Think that your that much safer in reserved is kind of a laugh.

    2)  I don't think most concerts are going to happen until Covid's well under control.  By that time it's probably not going to matter.

    I agree, with the exception that maybe not PJ but some bands might do stadium shows with distancing, similar to how some NFL teams are seating people.  If that meant getting shows several months or even a year before we otherwise would, that would work for me.
    The problem with this, in my view, is that arena or stadium shows that are not at capacity generally suck. I don’t think I’ve ever been at a show in a stadium that wasn’t full or at least reasonably close to it, but I’ve been to arena shows that aren’t sellouts and they just don’t give me what I’m looking for (let’s not have the Newark 2010 debate again guys!). 

    Don’t get me wrong - there’s almost certainly a way to do “socially distanced” shows that would be cool, depending on the artist, venue and the approach to the show. But seeing Pearl Jam (or another stadium-sized rock band) in a quarter-full football stadium sounds pretty rough. 

    I’d probably still talk myself into going and get upset when I lost the lottery though.
    I agree with this.  Many folks will have the "I'll take what I can get" mindset and would be perfectly fine with a venue at 25-50% capacity.  I can appreciate that.  For me, a huge part of the live show experience is the crowd intensity, so I'm personally going to wait until I can attend a sellout show at full capacity.  I may be waiting until 2022 or beyond, but so be it.  I'll help out my fellow fans with ticket odds in the meantime.

  • Zod said:
    I don't think they're going to abolish GA.  For a few reasons:

    1)  I don't think it really matters if you're in GA or Seated at a big event.  You're still going to be close to tonnes of people around you.    Think that your that much safer in reserved is kind of a laugh.

    2)  I don't think most concerts are going to happen until Covid's well under control.  By that time it's probably not going to matter.

    I agree, with the exception that maybe not PJ but some bands might do stadium shows with distancing, similar to how some NFL teams are seating people.  If that meant getting shows several months or even a year before we otherwise would, that would work for me.

    If it's a quieter, "sit-down" type show like a Billy Joel or Neil Diamond type or even a show/concert where the kiddos would go with their parents, yeah, I can see that.

    If it's a rock show with a bunch of drunk and/or high people? It could be a lot more difficult to keep people distant.
    Presidential Advice from President-Elect Mike McCready: "Are you getting something out of this all encompassing trip?"
  • I would settle for a Billy Joel concert in the spring.  
  • I wonder what risk is acceptable to PJ. We know we can't get it to zero. I would think acceptable risk for promoters/venues is based on their ability not to be sued. PJ might be at a higher standard.
  • ZodZod Posts: 7,567
    There's also the concert economics of using venues only at 25 to 40% capacity.   Can they make the economics of the event work?

    Plus all these bands already have shows their obligated to plan at full capacity (like the PJ tour), so they can't really try to do it earlier and cancel a bunch of the existing tickets.
  • They will play full shows in the fall or early 2022. I would not be surprised if you need proof of vaccination to attend events such as this. The logistics of playing 30% houses would be a nightmare. 

    It's just my opinion, but I can't imagine they have held that money for this long to then cancel 70% of tickets. 
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  • They will play full shows in the fall or early 2022. I would not be surprised if you need proof of vaccination to attend events such as this. The logistics of playing 30% houses would be a nightmare. 

    It's just my opinion, but I can't imagine they have held that money for this long to then cancel 70% of tickets. 

    They'd still need to pay the same amount of people if the venue was 30% full or if it was 100% full.
    Presidential Advice from President-Elect Mike McCready: "Are you getting something out of this all encompassing trip?"
  • Agreed but 30% of a 50k capacity venue is the same crowd as 100% of a 15k capacity venue. Just fewer communal air particles.  
  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 8,571
    Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

    I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 
    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,959
    PJNB said:
    Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

    I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 
    Good points.  This vaccine is pretty polarizing.  I know a ton of people that are a hard "yes" and a ton that are a hard "no."  Not many unknowns.  A large percentage of the population will never get it by choice.

  • ZodZod Posts: 7,567
    bbiggs said:
    PJNB said:
    Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

    I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 
    Good points.  This vaccine is pretty polarizing.  I know a ton of people that are a hard "yes" and a ton that are a hard "no."  Not many unknowns.  A large percentage of the population will never get it by choice.

    It's probably my but at the point where everyone who wants one, has gotten one, then I'm not worried anymore.   Those people have opted to take their chances with Covid19.  Open everything up :)

    It also occurred to me that if continues to spread amongst those who refuse vaccine's, it could mutate and render the vaccines moot :(  sigh....
  • PB11041PB11041 EarthPosts: 2,462
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.

    We have no idea how many people get this virus and have zero symptoms.  We have no good read on what percentage of population has antiboides as such.  As the vaccines roll out, transmission chains will break and the virus will weaken.

    The fact that two of the vaccines in play are showing well over 90% efficacy suggests that projecting the number of people who must be vaccinated is not really more than a soundbyte.

    Flu vaccines are only 55-60% effective in a given year.  Influenzas are going to always circulate.  This virus is always going to circulate in some fashion.  100% eradication or no fatalities ever after vaccines is a ludicrous prolaimation and a fanstasy.  Sadly, this is is always in the mix now to some degree or another.
    His eminence has yet to show. 
    http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
    http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652

  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 12,403
    I would settle for a Billy Joel concert in the spring.  
    Desperate times call for desperate measures. :lol:

    This weekend we rock Portland
  • PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 8,571
    PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
    Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!
    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
    Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!
    The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  
  • PB11041PB11041 EarthPosts: 2,462
    PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
    Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!
    The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  
    worst case scenario would be that this occurred just 10 or even 5 years ago.  Technology has made the collateral damage less so.
    His eminence has yet to show. 
    http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
    http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652

  • 1STmammal2wearPants1STmammal2wearPants Worcester, MAPosts: 2,508
    PB11041 said:
    PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
    Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!
    The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  
    worst case scenario would be that this occurred just 10 or even 5 years ago.  Technology has made the collateral damage less so.
    Thank God this vaccine is here now at already 300,000 dead - I can't imagine what it would be like if this was on the normal vaccine timeline of years. Really a miracle it's here this quickly. 

    Never thought we'd be at the prospect of thinking about shows in 2021, but seems like we can get there in the Fall or Winter/Spring 2022. These Quebec tickets are waiting to be enjoyed :)
    W.M.A., 36
    2003 Mansfield III 
    2004 Boston I 
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    2008 Bonnaroo, Hartford, Mansfield I 
    2010 Hartford 
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    2016 Bonnaroo, Boston I, Boston II 
    2018 Boston I, Boston II 
    2022 Quebec City 
  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 8,571
    PB11041 said:
    PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
    Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!
    The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  
    worst case scenario would be that this occurred just 10 or even 5 years ago.  Technology has made the collateral damage less so.
    Thank God this vaccine is here now at already 300,000 dead - I can't imagine what it would be like if this was on the normal vaccine timeline of years. Really a miracle it's here this quickly. 

    Never thought we'd be at the prospect of thinking about shows in 2021, but seems like we can get there in the Fall or Winter/Spring 2022. These Quebec tickets are waiting to be enjoyed :)
    Watching the news this morning on CTV there are professionals out there saying that we will be back to normal by this summer in Canada and on top of that anyone that wants to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by September 2021. They have been conservative with their numbers so far too so while we still need to get the vaccines in our hands and into the arms of patients all signs are pointing in the positive direction. 
    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • DEGBTIDEGBTI san diegoPosts: 334
    cant see why Ohana wont happen. Thing will accelerate starting today!
  • D-RodD-Rod Posts: 1,032
    PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
    Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!
    The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  
    worst case scenario would be that this occurred just 10 or even 5 years ago.  Technology has made the collateral damage less so.
    Thank God this vaccine is here now at already 300,000 dead - I can't imagine what it would be like if this was on the normal vaccine timeline of years. Really a miracle it's here this quickly. 

    Never thought we'd be at the prospect of thinking about shows in 2021, but seems like we can get there in the Fall or Winter/Spring 2022. These Quebec tickets are waiting to be enjoyed :)
    Watching the news this morning on CTV there are professionals out there saying that we will be back to normal by this summer in Canada and on top of that anyone that wants to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by September 2021. They have been conservative with their numbers so far too so while we still need to get the vaccines in our hands and into the arms of patients all signs are pointing in the positive direction. 
    With Justin Trudeau saying September of 2021 for mass vaccinations I’m wondering if the real date is June/July.  That way he can state he over delivered on his promise.   It would be a smart decision for any politician to do. 
    1996.....Toronto
    2005.....Hamilton
    2011.....Toronto N1, Toronto N2, Hamilton
    2013.....London, Buffalo
    2014.....Detroit
    2016......Toronto N1 Toronto N2, Boston  N1, Boston N2, Chicago N1
    2018.....Seattle N1, Seattle N2
    202?.....Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec City, Hamilton 
  • I like the optimism today.  Fingers crossed. 
  • PJNB said:
    Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

    I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 
    I feared this logic for a while but it's just not going down this way for a variety of reasons. I saw a NBC poll that 88% of Americans would take the vaccine this morning. 63% initially and the other 25% a wait and see approach. Anti-vaxxers are cowherds who in my opinion will mostly take the vaccine when they realize the fate of the country and any realistic recovery hinges on it. Plus it protects you from getting sick and dying. I just don't see more than 10-15% of this country being that stupid.

    Aside from all that just look at the numbers. If immunity lasts a year and potentially even much longer as a lot of scientist are concluding we will be well above 75% by late next year. Conservative estimates put us at 15-20% right now and we are adding a million confirmed cases every 3 days! That's just confirmed cases, nobody knows the full depth of this thing. I have some idiot neighbors two houses down, wife tested positive, husband is a denier, won't get tested, doesn't wear a mask and goes to work everyday. Oh and they have a 7 year old son. Point is I'm pretty sure 66% of the cases in that house never get counted. A large % of the anti-vaxxer crowd are going to get infected in the next 9-12 months. They are also the deniers and overall ignorant. Lets just say 75% of us are vaccinated by the end of July. That gives the population a roughly 70% immunity level and I'm not even throwing in the 30% of the population infected naturally by that point.  If we can't get to 80-85% immunity by the end of 2021 then we really screwed something up. I mean our own stupidity has given us a huge head start with the amount of infection flowing through out communities right now. Bottom line, unless reinfections start occurring in large numbers by March & April we'll survive. I still don't see PJ hitting the stage in 2021 but that's just my opinion. If we're enjoying shows by 2022 I would be very thankful.
    06/22/95, 11/04/95, 11/15/97, 07/16/98, 10/30/99, 10/30/00, 10/31/00, 10/20/01, 10/21/01, 12/08/02, 06/01/03, 06/06/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 09/28/04, 03/18/05, 09/01/05, 07/15/06, 07/16/06, 07/18/06, 07/22/06, 07/23/06, 10/21/06, 10/22/06, 08/28/09, 09/21/09, 09/22/09, 05/20/10, 05/21/10, 10/24/10, 11/26/13, 12/06/13, 06/28/14, 10/26/14, 07/10/18, 08/10/18
  • BF89905BF89905 Posts: 1,175
    I'll be pleasantly surprised if Pearl Jam plays a live show with a live audience in 2021. Be safe everyone and socially responsible everyone. Happy Holiday season to you and yours.
  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 8,571
    PJNB said:
    Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

    I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 
    I feared this logic for a while but it's just not going down this way for a variety of reasons. I saw a NBC poll that 88% of Americans would take the vaccine this morning. 63% initially and the other 25% a wait and see approach. Anti-vaxxers are cowherds who in my opinion will mostly take the vaccine when they realize the fate of the country and any realistic recovery hinges on it. Plus it protects you from getting sick and dying. I just don't see more than 10-15% of this country being that stupid.

    Aside from all that just look at the numbers. If immunity lasts a year and potentially even much longer as a lot of scientist are concluding we will be well above 75% by late next year. Conservative estimates put us at 15-20% right now and we are adding a million confirmed cases every 3 days! That's just confirmed cases, nobody knows the full depth of this thing. I have some idiot neighbors two houses down, wife tested positive, husband is a denier, won't get tested, doesn't wear a mask and goes to work everyday. Oh and they have a 7 year old son. Point is I'm pretty sure 66% of the cases in that house never get counted. A large % of the anti-vaxxer crowd are going to get infected in the next 9-12 months. They are also the deniers and overall ignorant. Lets just say 75% of us are vaccinated by the end of July. That gives the population a roughly 70% immunity level and I'm not even throwing in the 30% of the population infected naturally by that point.  If we can't get to 80-85% immunity by the end of 2021 then we really screwed something up. I mean our own stupidity has given us a huge head start with the amount of infection flowing through out communities right now. Bottom line, unless reinfections start occurring in large numbers by March & April we'll survive. I still don't see PJ hitting the stage in 2021 but that's just my opinion. If we're enjoying shows by 2022 I would be very thankful.
    Great points and I hope you are right with your thoughts on how many people will get the vaccine.

    One problem remains getting to herd immunity however and that is kids are not getting vaccinated anytime soon. I do not see many people talking about this when they talk about herd immunity on the news and the numbers are just not there yet for it. There are 64 million boys and girls that are 15 and under in the USA. That is roughly 20% of your population. That puts a huge dent in getting to herd immunity anytime next year. 60% is on the low side and 75% is on the high side for herd immunity depending who you ask. Funny enough that is roughly the numbers that were thought to be how effective the vaccine was going to be if you asked the experts months ago. Now we have 90-95% and have a much greater shot at stopping this virus. 

    My belief, which is worthless I know, is that kids do not need to get vaccinated to go back to normal. If all of the low risk adults are vaccinated and the old and vulnerable with them then I feel like it we do not need to rush to vaccinate the kids until a lot more testing has been done. I know I would be very hesitant letting my kids get the vaccine (2,4 and 6) this early in its life and I am as pro vaccine as they come. With more testing then yes I would vaccinate my kids without hesitation. 

    Kids may spread it still but they are not at risk of it and far likely to be asymptomatic making it less likely to spread it even if they tried. Again if those at risk are protected and the adults that want to get the vaccine have the chance to do so lets get this show going and bring some normalcy back to life concerts included. 
    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • There are plenty of people at tonight’s Ravens-Browns game.  
  • ZodZod Posts: 7,567
    D-Rod said:
    PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    PJNB said:
    PB11041 said:
    No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.
    This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 
    Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!
    The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  
    worst case scenario would be that this occurred just 10 or even 5 years ago.  Technology has made the collateral damage less so.
    Thank God this vaccine is here now at already 300,000 dead - I can't imagine what it would be like if this was on the normal vaccine timeline of years. Really a miracle it's here this quickly. 

    Never thought we'd be at the prospect of thinking about shows in 2021, but seems like we can get there in the Fall or Winter/Spring 2022. These Quebec tickets are waiting to be enjoyed :)
    Watching the news this morning on CTV there are professionals out there saying that we will be back to normal by this summer in Canada and on top of that anyone that wants to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by September 2021. They have been conservative with their numbers so far too so while we still need to get the vaccines in our hands and into the arms of patients all signs are pointing in the positive direction. 
    With Justin Trudeau saying September of 2021 for mass vaccinations I’m wondering if the real date is June/July.  That way he can state he over delivered on his promise.   It would be a smart decision for any politician to do. 
    Or the opposite.  If I was in charge I'd add 20% to any budget or timeline just in case.    If you finish a bit early people are going to complain, but if you run late or overbudget people will.  

    It's never a good idea when planning things to give yourself a non-existent or razor thin margin of error.
  • PJNB said:
    PJNB said:
    Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

    I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 
    I feared this logic for a while but it's just not going down this way for a variety of reasons. I saw a NBC poll that 88% of Americans would take the vaccine this morning. 63% initially and the other 25% a wait and see approach. Anti-vaxxers are cowherds who in my opinion will mostly take the vaccine when they realize the fate of the country and any realistic recovery hinges on it. Plus it protects you from getting sick and dying. I just don't see more than 10-15% of this country being that stupid.

    Aside from all that just look at the numbers. If immunity lasts a year and potentially even much longer as a lot of scientist are concluding we will be well above 75% by late next year. Conservative estimates put us at 15-20% right now and we are adding a million confirmed cases every 3 days! That's just confirmed cases, nobody knows the full depth of this thing. I have some idiot neighbors two houses down, wife tested positive, husband is a denier, won't get tested, doesn't wear a mask and goes to work everyday. Oh and they have a 7 year old son. Point is I'm pretty sure 66% of the cases in that house never get counted. A large % of the anti-vaxxer crowd are going to get infected in the next 9-12 months. They are also the deniers and overall ignorant. Lets just say 75% of us are vaccinated by the end of July. That gives the population a roughly 70% immunity level and I'm not even throwing in the 30% of the population infected naturally by that point.  If we can't get to 80-85% immunity by the end of 2021 then we really screwed something up. I mean our own stupidity has given us a huge head start with the amount of infection flowing through out communities right now. Bottom line, unless reinfections start occurring in large numbers by March & April we'll survive. I still don't see PJ hitting the stage in 2021 but that's just my opinion. If we're enjoying shows by 2022 I would be very thankful.
    Great points and I hope you are right with your thoughts on how many people will get the vaccine.

    One problem remains getting to herd immunity however and that is kids are not getting vaccinated anytime soon. I do not see many people talking about this when they talk about herd immunity on the news and the numbers are just not there yet for it. There are 64 million boys and girls that are 15 and under in the USA. That is roughly 20% of your population. That puts a huge dent in getting to herd immunity anytime next year. 60% is on the low side and 75% is on the high side for herd immunity depending who you ask. Funny enough that is roughly the numbers that were thought to be how effective the vaccine was going to be if you asked the experts months ago. Now we have 90-95% and have a much greater shot at stopping this virus. 

    My belief, which is worthless I know, is that kids do not need to get vaccinated to go back to normal. If all of the low risk adults are vaccinated and the old and vulnerable with them then I feel like it we do not need to rush to vaccinate the kids until a lot more testing has been done. I know I would be very hesitant letting my kids get the vaccine (2,4 and 6) this early in its life and I am as pro vaccine as they come. With more testing then yes I would vaccinate my kids without hesitation. 

    Kids may spread it still but they are not at risk of it and far likely to be asymptomatic making it less likely to spread it even if they tried. Again if those at risk are protected and the adults that want to get the vaccine have the chance to do so lets get this show going and bring some normalcy back to life concerts included. 
    I agree with your thoughts on children. I have a 9 year old son and would like to see these trials on the 15 and under age group play out before running to get him his shot. By the time we get to that point there should be a lot more data available. Including better understanding on just how much children are spreading the virus. If adults and especially those at risk are pretty well protected I’m not entirely sure it matters how many young people are vaccinated. Once ICU’s enter a steady decline, probably in April you’ll see a legit light at the end of the tunnel. Something like 150 Americans under age 21 have died from COVID. Almost all with pre existing conditions. While tragic we were really lucky with this virus. Look back at the 1918 pandemic in which tens of thousands of children died. If COVID had the same mortality rate in older adults as it has to children we wouldn’t be having this conversation. We’d be ranking our favorite shows of 2020 and not tying to predict what year an actual show might take place. Stay safe and we’ll get through this,
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  • PeterEDPeterED Posts: 314
    There are plenty of people at tonight’s Ravens-Browns game.  
    I’m not sure the USA is the standard to which we should strive.
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  • ComeToTXComeToTX AustinPosts: 6,415
    PeterED said:
    There are plenty of people at tonight’s Ravens-Browns game.  
    I’m not sure the USA is the standard to which we should strive.
    Ha. Very true. That crowd was much smaller than many of the college games too. 
    This show, another show, a show here and a show there.
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