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2020 Fall North American rumour thread

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  • mcgruff10mcgruff10 New JerseyPosts: 24,638
    PJNB said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Damn I just realized I need to renew my passport, any clue if they are accepting them?  I need to make that quebec city show!
    Still got those tickets for you. Hope you can make the trip next fall! 
    You are the man!  Fingers crossed I can make the show.
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • mcgruff10 said:
    PJNB said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Damn I just realized I need to renew my passport, any clue if they are accepting them?  I need to make that quebec city show!
    Still got those tickets for you. Hope you can make the trip next fall! 
    You are the man!  Fingers crossed I can make the show.
    That poutine you ordered last March might be in rough shape by then.  
  • A festival in Montreal called Osheaga announced headliners for July 30-Aug. 1, 2021 today.  That’s a good sign.  
  • mcgruff10mcgruff10 New JerseyPosts: 24,638
    edited December 2020
    mcgruff10 said:
    PJNB said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Damn I just realized I need to renew my passport, any clue if they are accepting them?  I need to make that quebec city show!
    Still got those tickets for you. Hope you can make the trip next fall! 
    You are the man!  Fingers crossed I can make the show.
    That poutine you ordered last March might be in rough shape by then.  
    Oh damn I never canceled my order!  
    Side note, I am so damn excited to try that meal.  I can’t believe I haven’t been to Canada since 2011. :(
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • ClapperClapper TorontoPosts: 154
    mcgruff10 said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    PJNB said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Damn I just realized I need to renew my passport, any clue if they are accepting them?  I need to make that quebec city show!
    Still got those tickets for you. Hope you can make the trip next fall! 
    You are the man!  Fingers crossed I can make the show.
    That poutine you ordered last March might be in rough shape by then.  
    Oh damn I never canceled my order!  
    Side note, I am so damn excited to try that meal.  I can’t believe I haven’t been to Canada since 2011. :(
    I'm sure this will be controversial with our friends from Quebec, but I highly recommend adding deep friend cheese curds to your poutine. 
    1993 - Toronto
    1996 - Toronto
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    2008 - EV solo Toronto I
    2010 - Buffalo, Newark
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    2018 - Boston I, Boston II
  • mcgruff10mcgruff10 New JerseyPosts: 24,638
    Clapper said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    PJNB said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Damn I just realized I need to renew my passport, any clue if they are accepting them?  I need to make that quebec city show!
    Still got those tickets for you. Hope you can make the trip next fall! 
    You are the man!  Fingers crossed I can make the show.
    That poutine you ordered last March might be in rough shape by then.  
    Oh damn I never canceled my order!  
    Side note, I am so damn excited to try that meal.  I can’t believe I haven’t been to Canada since 2011. :(
    I'm sure this will be controversial with our friends from Quebec, but I highly recommend adding deep friend cheese curds to your poutine. 
    Oh hells yes!! 
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • demetriosdemetrios canadaPosts: 64,808
    A festival in Montreal called Osheaga announced headliners for July 30-Aug. 1, 2021 today.  That’s a good sign.  

    A festival in 8 months? Doubt that would happen but all the best. 
  • ZodZod Posts: 7,414
    PJNB said:
    Zod said:
    If any shows happen in the US next year, they will probably be outdoor only shows and they'll probably still require masks. So sheds or stadiums in the fall could be realistic.
    I guess?  I don't really see them starting a new tour until the previous committed tours are done.  I also don't see them cancelling all the tickets to book at outdoor venues.

    The be honest I don't see how outdoor helps.  Whether it's an indoor or outdoor venue your jammed in tight proximity with a lot of people.   If the virus is around, it's going to spread regardless of indoor/outdoor.

    I only see a touring happening if Covid's almost all but gone, and they it won't matter.  Best case scenario is that could be fall 2021, but that's best case scenario.. it could take longer to get that many people vaccinated :(
    I am not saying this to argue or downplay covid. I am a firm believer on locking shit down right now and protecting those that can get severely sick from covid. That said if by summer most of the people if not all that want a vaccination shot that are high risk or essential workers what is to stop us from being normal again? I get it we will still be shell shocked from this huge change in our lives and it would be odd to jump right back in but was this whole lockdown not to save the vulnerable and allow our hospitals to not be overrun? I just don't get the need to have it all but gone since I do not see that ever being a possibility in the foreseeable future.
    If no ones vaccinated at the show (as only health care workers, care home residents got it), then most people at the show aren't immune to it.  Say for middle aged people it has a 2% chance of requiring hospitalization, and a .05% mortality rate.  Fairly low numbers.    If you do that show before the majority has vaccine's or natural immunity, it's going to rip through that venue like a lighting bolt in a forrest after 6 months of drought.

    Say it's a 20000 people show and the virus spreads to half the occupants.  10000 people.  200 could end up in the hospital, and 50 could die (based on my made up but somewhat educated guess on the hospitalization/mortality rates of middle age people).  That doesn't include when they go home and pass it on to family members, friends, and coworkers.

    How do you pull that off?  My understanding of Coronavirus is that the most insidious thing about it, isn't how lethal it is, it's how easily it spreads.   A small fraction of a large number is still a significant amount of people.

    I think what TM is proposing with the you have to prove your vaccinated or prove a negative test will be the interim step, but they're still going to have until the population has enough vaccinated people to fill most of those seats.

    Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.



  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 8,033
    Zod said:
    PJNB said:
    Zod said:
    If any shows happen in the US next year, they will probably be outdoor only shows and they'll probably still require masks. So sheds or stadiums in the fall could be realistic.
    I guess?  I don't really see them starting a new tour until the previous committed tours are done.  I also don't see them cancelling all the tickets to book at outdoor venues.

    The be honest I don't see how outdoor helps.  Whether it's an indoor or outdoor venue your jammed in tight proximity with a lot of people.   If the virus is around, it's going to spread regardless of indoor/outdoor.

    I only see a touring happening if Covid's almost all but gone, and they it won't matter.  Best case scenario is that could be fall 2021, but that's best case scenario.. it could take longer to get that many people vaccinated :(
    I am not saying this to argue or downplay covid. I am a firm believer on locking shit down right now and protecting those that can get severely sick from covid. That said if by summer most of the people if not all that want a vaccination shot that are high risk or essential workers what is to stop us from being normal again? I get it we will still be shell shocked from this huge change in our lives and it would be odd to jump right back in but was this whole lockdown not to save the vulnerable and allow our hospitals to not be overrun? I just don't get the need to have it all but gone since I do not see that ever being a possibility in the foreseeable future.
    If no ones vaccinated at the show (as only health care workers, care home residents got it), then most people at the show aren't immune to it.  Say for middle aged people it has a 2% chance of requiring hospitalization, and a .05% mortality rate.  Fairly low numbers.    If you do that show before the majority has vaccine's or natural immunity, it's going to rip through that venue like a lighting bolt in a forrest after 6 months of drought.

    Say it's a 20000 people show and the virus spreads to half the occupants.  10000 people.  200 could end up in the hospital, and 50 could die (based on my made up but somewhat educated guess on the hospitalization/mortality rates of middle age people).  That doesn't include when they go home and pass it on to family members, friends, and coworkers.

    How do you pull that off?  My understanding of Coronavirus is that the most insidious thing about it, isn't how lethal it is, it's how easily it spreads.   A small fraction of a large number is still a significant amount of people.

    I think what TM is proposing with the you have to prove your vaccinated or prove a negative test will be the interim step, but they're still going to have until the population has enough vaccinated people to fill most of those seats.

    Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.



    You really think half of an arena is going to get this disease and 50 people are going to die from this virus going to a single rock concert? This is after anyone with any kind of risk of this disease has been vaccinated?  

    The key here is this again. Everyone in the country that is at risk has had the option to be vaccinated. Who are we putting at risk now taking the virus home and spreading it to? We are doing this right now to protect them not so much ourselves. Also half of the population at the very least is either going to flat out refuse to have the vaccine or in an age category/health condition that they are at least a year away from being able to get it. We are years away from herd immunity. I am at the point right now if hospitals are not being overrun and deaths are way down its time to go back to where we were by summer if the vaccine rollout timeline stays true . 


    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • I think Zod makes a good argument.  A few thoughts:

    -Testing plan is leaky due to false negatives and cheaters;

    -I would like to see some stadium shows with limited capacity next summer if indoor shows are not yet safe;

    -I would also want the vaccine for sure before attending an indoor show, and I’d probably mask up for a while even with the vaccine;

    -PJNB is right that if the standard is zero risk then we are looking at a very long time, if ever.

  • ZodZod Posts: 7,414
    edited December 2020
    PJNB said:
    Zod said:
    PJNB said:
    Zod said:
    If any shows happen in the US next year, they will probably be outdoor only shows and they'll probably still require masks. So sheds or stadiums in the fall could be realistic.
    I guess?  I don't really see them starting a new tour until the previous committed tours are done.  I also don't see them cancelling all the tickets to book at outdoor venues.

    The be honest I don't see how outdoor helps.  Whether it's an indoor or outdoor venue your jammed in tight proximity with a lot of people.   If the virus is around, it's going to spread regardless of indoor/outdoor.

    I only see a touring happening if Covid's almost all but gone, and they it won't matter.  Best case scenario is that could be fall 2021, but that's best case scenario.. it could take longer to get that many people vaccinated :(
    I am not saying this to argue or downplay covid. I am a firm believer on locking shit down right now and protecting those that can get severely sick from covid. That said if by summer most of the people if not all that want a vaccination shot that are high risk or essential workers what is to stop us from being normal again? I get it we will still be shell shocked from this huge change in our lives and it would be odd to jump right back in but was this whole lockdown not to save the vulnerable and allow our hospitals to not be overrun? I just don't get the need to have it all but gone since I do not see that ever being a possibility in the foreseeable future.
    If no ones vaccinated at the show (as only health care workers, care home residents got it), then most people at the show aren't immune to it.  Say for middle aged people it has a 2% chance of requiring hospitalization, and a .05% mortality rate.  Fairly low numbers.    If you do that show before the majority has vaccine's or natural immunity, it's going to rip through that venue like a lighting bolt in a forrest after 6 months of drought.

    Say it's a 20000 people show and the virus spreads to half the occupants.  10000 people.  200 could end up in the hospital, and 50 could die (based on my made up but somewhat educated guess on the hospitalization/mortality rates of middle age people).  That doesn't include when they go home and pass it on to family members, friends, and coworkers.

    How do you pull that off?  My understanding of Coronavirus is that the most insidious thing about it, isn't how lethal it is, it's how easily it spreads.   A small fraction of a large number is still a significant amount of people.

    I think what TM is proposing with the you have to prove your vaccinated or prove a negative test will be the interim step, but they're still going to have until the population has enough vaccinated people to fill most of those seats.

    Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.



    You really think half of an arena is going to get this disease and 50 people are going to die from this virus going to a single rock concert? This is after anyone with any kind of risk of this disease has been vaccinated?  

    The key here is this again. Everyone in the country that is at risk has had the option to be vaccinated. Who are we putting at risk now taking the virus home and spreading it to? We are doing this right now to protect them not so much ourselves. Also half of the population at the very least is either going to flat out refuse to have the vaccine or in an age category/health condition that they are at least a year away from being able to get it. We are years away from herd immunity. I am at the point right now if hospitals are not being overrun and deaths are way down its time to go back to where we were by summer if the vaccine rollout timeline stays true . 


    I was trying to provide an example.  If you're going to open it only at the point the bare minimum is vaccinated (the at risk) then it's going to spread like wildfire.  At risk people aren't the only people it kills or creates problems for.   If you open it up before the overwhelming majority is immune, it's going to spread like wildfire.  Even if the mortality rate of people under 50 is less than a percent, that's going to add up quickly if big public events start up too early.  Not only by the thousands and thousands of non-vaccinated people at the show, but all the people they interact with after the show.

    I'm pretty sure this is why TM/LN are working on the "you need a vaccination card or negative covid test)" to go to a mass gathering (Concert/sporting event).   They don't want to be liable if there's a massive outbreak at an event. 

    Given that LN/TM needs to fill the seats, they're most likely going to have to wait until they enough vaccinated people to fill the seats.  I think a lot of people are like me.  They're not going to a show until their vaccinated.   Trying to do shows before people who want vaccine's can get the vacinne's is going to severely diminish who is willing (or able) to show up.

    My guess, at best, concerts are back next fall (and this is vaccine rollout goes well).   I think it's pretty questionable we hit critical mass with vaccines by summer (fingers cross, I have RATM tickets for June, but I don't think its going to happen).

    Mass gatherings likes concerts/sports are going to be the last things to come back.

    I think the difference between your argument and mine, is that you think it should reopen when at risk people are vaccinated (ie old people and people with preexisiting conditions).  I tend to think that in order to fill the seats they'll have to wait until almost everyone that wants a vaccine has gotten one.   I think that's where we see it come back.  That's why it feels a long way out.


    Post edited by Zod on
  • pjhawkspjhawks Posts: 10,892
    I’d love to see shows in fall ‘21 but thinking about it I don’t see Pearl Jam being on the lead coming back with shows as early as other groups. As usual I imagine they are going to lean to the side of the highest caution.  
  • D-RodD-Rod Posts: 976
    Hey @mcgruff10 .  Any update on that passport?   I’m in for deep fried cheese curds.  BTW you will be happy to know the exchange rate is sitting at .75 
    1996.....Toronto
    2005.....Hamilton
    2011.....Toronto N1, Toronto N2, Hamilton
    2013.....London, Buffalo
    2014.....Detroit
    2016......Toronto N1 Toronto N2, Boston  N1, Boston N2, Chicago N1
    2018.....Seattle N1, Seattle N2
    202?.....Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec City, Hamilton 
  • mcgruff10mcgruff10 New JerseyPosts: 24,638
    D-Rod said:
    Hey @mcgruff10 .  Any update on that passport?   I’m in for deep fried cheese curds.  BTW you will be happy to know the exchange rate is sitting at .75 
    No updates yet.  I ll probably get it done after the holidays.   That exchange rate sounds awesome!!
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • vedpunkvedpunk Posts: 536
    pjhawks said:
    I’d love to see shows in fall ‘21 but thinking about it I don’t see Pearl Jam being on the lead coming back with shows as early as other groups. As usual I imagine they are going to lean to the side of the highest caution.  
    If the band is OK with playing shows in Europe as early as this summer, we will also see shows in the US by this Fall.  Count on it.
  • pjhawkspjhawks Posts: 10,892
    vedpunk said:
    pjhawks said:
    I’d love to see shows in fall ‘21 but thinking about it I don’t see Pearl Jam being on the lead coming back with shows as early as other groups. As usual I imagine they are going to lean to the side of the highest caution.  
    If the band is OK with playing shows in Europe as early as this summer, we will also see shows in the US by this Fall.  Count on it.
    I know they rescheduled those but don't think those are 100% coming off either.  we shall see
  • pjhawks said:
    vedpunk said:
    pjhawks said:
    I’d love to see shows in fall ‘21 but thinking about it I don’t see Pearl Jam being on the lead coming back with shows as early as other groups. As usual I imagine they are going to lean to the side of the highest caution.  
    If the band is OK with playing shows in Europe as early as this summer, we will also see shows in the US by this Fall.  Count on it.
    I know they rescheduled those but don't think those are 100% coming off either.  we shall see
    Agreed.  The reschedule notice was clearly subject to safety considerations.  I actually think Fall North America has a better chance of happening than summer Europe due to more months to vaccinate and only one or two countries holding shows.  June vs. September could be a world of difference for percent of people able to get a vaccine.  
  • DM282158DM282158 Beverly, MAPosts: 273
    Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but in regards to requirement related to the vaccine. Not sure how an entity could require a vaccine (in general) but especially one that is only approved for emergency use. The COVID vaccines will not be officially approved by the FDA until 2023. 

    I think itll be a gradual, organic process. People that want/need the vaccines will get them. Hospitalizations and deaths start to decline. We find ourselves in a better spot. And governments start allowing venues to open up. Initially at reduced capacity (like we’re seeing at some outdoor football stadiums). Then full capacity. 

    ticketmaster also pushed back against that article a while back about requirements of vaccines. 

    And of note - what an absolute cluster fuck that would be to control. Not to mention a little too 1984 for my liking. 

    Anyway, really miss rocking out with you fuckers. Sincerely hope you are all well - health wise, job wise, etc. 

    🤘✌️
    Boston '06
    Mansfield '08
    Hartford '10
    Worcester, Hartford '13
    Global Citizen, NY '15
  • tschavtschav Posts: 1,949
    At this rate I’d drop a couple hundred bucks for a 10c VR helmet and a livestream show. Everyone gets a rail spot without lining up and a much easier piss break situation.
  • tishtish taking the looooooong way,...Posts: 3,350
    ^Now your talking!
  • Zod said:

    If no ones vaccinated at the show (as only health care workers, care home residents got it), then most people at the show aren't immune to it.  Say for middle aged people it has a 2% chance of requiring hospitalization, and a .05% mortality rate.  Fairly low numbers.    If you do that show before the majority has vaccine's or natural immunity, it's going to rip through that venue like a lighting bolt in a forrest after 6 months of drought.

    Say it's a 20000 people show and the virus spreads to half the occupants.  10000 people.  200 could end up in the hospital, and 50 could die (based on my made up but somewhat educated guess on the hospitalization/mortality rates of middle age people).  That doesn't include when they go home and pass it on to family members, friends, and coworkers.

    How do you pull that off?  My understanding of Coronavirus is that the most insidious thing about it, isn't how lethal it is, it's how easily it spreads.   A small fraction of a large number is still a significant amount of people.

    I think what TM is proposing with the you have to prove your vaccinated or prove a negative test will be the interim step, but they're still going to have until the population has enough vaccinated people to fill most of those seats.

    Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.



    I don't disagree with your point at all, but the math is off.  0.05% is .0005 x 10000 = 5 dead.  Which is still way too many just to go see a concert.
  • ZodZod Posts: 7,414
    Zod said:

    If no ones vaccinated at the show (as only health care workers, care home residents got it), then most people at the show aren't immune to it.  Say for middle aged people it has a 2% chance of requiring hospitalization, and a .05% mortality rate.  Fairly low numbers.    If you do that show before the majority has vaccine's or natural immunity, it's going to rip through that venue like a lighting bolt in a forrest after 6 months of drought.

    Say it's a 20000 people show and the virus spreads to half the occupants.  10000 people.  200 could end up in the hospital, and 50 could die (based on my made up but somewhat educated guess on the hospitalization/mortality rates of middle age people).  That doesn't include when they go home and pass it on to family members, friends, and coworkers.

    How do you pull that off?  My understanding of Coronavirus is that the most insidious thing about it, isn't how lethal it is, it's how easily it spreads.   A small fraction of a large number is still a significant amount of people.

    I think what TM is proposing with the you have to prove your vaccinated or prove a negative test will be the interim step, but they're still going to have until the population has enough vaccinated people to fill most of those seats.

    Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.



    I don't disagree with your point at all, but the math is off.  0.05% is .0005 x 10000 = 5 dead.  Which is still way too many just to go see a concert.

    right! thank you for pointing that out :)
  • What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change. 
  • What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change. 
    Same for Europe?
  • mcgruff10mcgruff10 New JerseyPosts: 24,638
    What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change. 
    No sea hear and now festival?
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change. 
    Same for Europe?
    I don’t really ask about Europe. I can only imagine right now since those are still being advertised, the plan is to go ahead but things can change. 
  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 8,033
    If NA is not happening at any time next year there is no chance at Europe happening.

    Pearl Jam has 2 festivals set up next fall. If the doctors and government say it is safe to play I am betting they are going to play. Is 2022 the safe bet for them to allow concerts to happen? Maybe but it is way too early to write off 2021 already and I can not imagine PJ is doing so. We will know a lot more by April after a large amount of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. 

    Again the government and doctors will decide this not Pearl Jam. Now if Pearl Jam is being told not to expect to be allowed to tour until 2022 by the professionals then that is a different story. I would hope however that they use the wait and see approach on how the vaccine works before making a decision like this in December 2020. 


    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,789
    What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change. 
    Yikes.  Not encouraging news, if accurate.

  • demetriosdemetrios canadaPosts: 64,808
    What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change. 

    2022? Lucky if we get to attend a big Pearl Jam concert that early. 

    Zod said:

    Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.


    Even if you get vaccinated, you still have to distance yourself, wear a mask etc ... like what we all have been doing since March 2020. Until there is a 100% cure, doubt we will be seeing GA for a long time. It's gonna be reserved seating going forward. 
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,789
    PJNB said:
    If NA is not happening at any time next year there is no chance at Europe happening.

    Pearl Jam has 2 festivals set up next fall. If the doctors and government say it is safe to play I am betting they are going to play. Is 2022 the safe bet for them to allow concerts to happen? Maybe but it is way too early to write off 2021 already and I can not imagine PJ is doing so. We will know a lot more by April after a large amount of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. 

    Again the government and doctors will decide this not Pearl Jam. Now if Pearl Jam is being told not to expect to be allowed to tour until 2022 by the professionals then that is a different story. I would hope however that they use the wait and see approach on how the vaccine works before making a decision like this in December 2020. 


    The person who posted this has had reliable information before, as you know, so while I agree with what you're saying, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth to this 2022 statement.  Maybe PJ doesn't want to be playing to half full arenas if that is the initial mandate.  Who knows.  I'll continue to hope for Fall 2021, but will set my expectations for 2022 at this point. 

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