This is wild. Trump is probably going to get the fed to cut rates, but not to stimulate the economy like a rocket ship as he demanded....they're likely going to cut rates in anticipation of the harm that Trump's own trade wars are causing
Why Trump’s trade chaos may force Fed to cut rates
Trump's battles have fueled concern that the central bank may have to come to the rescue of the economy.
For months, President Donald Trump has pressed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to make the economy take off like a “rocket ship.” But after his latest move to inflame trade tensions, the Fed might need to lower rates just to stave off a dramatic slowdown.
As Fed officials begin a landmark two-day conference on Tuesday in Chicago to reconsider their approach to fighting inflation, Trump's battles with Mexico, China and every other major U.S. trading partner have fueled concern that the central bank may have to come to the rescue of the economy.
Some of the country's top economic forecasters have raised the specter of a Fed rate cut this year in the wake of Trump's tweet last Thursday threatening to raise tariffs on Mexico over immigration, which sent stocks tumbling the next day. And markets are predicting greater than 50 percent odds that a rate reduction will come as early as July.
“The administration doesn't seem to care how disruptive its actions are," said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, an independent research firm. Trump's actions, he said, are creating "huge C-suite uncertainties. Investment-freezing, employment-chilling and growth-stifling uncertainties.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today said the central bank will keep a close eye on growing trade tensions to determine what actions, if any, the central bank might need to take.
"We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved," Powell said in a speech at the Fed's conference in Chicago. "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion."
The conference was in the works long before Trump began bashing the central bank over its policies. But in the wake of the increasing trade conflicts, markets are watching for clues on what Powell, who has been the main target of the president's wrath, might do.
Trump's tweet on Mexico spooked investors in part because it threw the future of the renegotiated NAFTA deal into doubt and raised the possibility of retaliatory tariffs from the U.S.'s third-largest trading partner. That, plus ongoing quarrels with other trading partners, could imperil the economic expansion, which is set to become the longest in American history this July.
That would leave the Fed as the president’s best buffer to sustain the healthy economy — the most potent selling point for his reelection with voters beyond his base.
Prominent Fed watchers, including Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, and Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor, now expect a reduction in rates this year.
Trump’s Mexico tariff tweet “adds yet another trade-related headwind to the growth outlook,” Feroli said. “Even if a deal is quickly reached with Mexico, which seems plausible, the damage to business confidence could be lasting, with consequences that might still require a Fed response.”
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who gets a vote this year on rate policy actions, suggested in remarks Monday that a cut “may be warranted soon.”
Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at Swiss bank UBS and a former Fed staffer, said the central bank would never lower rates for the purpose of making it easier for the president to fight trade wars, as Trump has explicitly suggested they do.
“On the other hand — an easily imaginable scenario is that the trade war escalates ... and it rattles markets, and it causes the real economy to slow down,” Carpenter said. The Fed would “absolutely take that into consideration” in its monetary policy decisions.
“So, they’re backing into doing what Trump wanted them to do,” he added. “But what else are they going to do if truly their objective is to maintain full employment and price stability?”
Heightening trade tensions adds to the Fed’s already uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy, amid slowing global growth and signals in the Treasury market that could portend a recession. Fed officials have repeatedly cited trade policy as a significant risk to the economy and have maintained a pause in rate changes while they watch how economic conditions unfold.
Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida last week said the central bank views the U.S. economy as being in “a very good place” and expects inflation over time to move up toward the Fed's 2 percent target, suggesting no imminent need for a rate move in either direction.
But he also indicated the central bank is willing to be flexible if that outlook changes, implicitly hinting at the possibility of rate cuts if “global economic and financial developments present a material downside risk to our baseline outlook.”
Team Trump Treason covering for Putin on the ritz so how does anyone in the US military support this CIC? He blatantly lied. What is it going to take to be rid of this dolt?
President
Trump; Queen Elizabeth II; first lady Melania Trump; Charles, Prince of
Wales; and Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall; in London on June 3, 2019.
(Alastair Grant/AP)
President
Trump is not someone who hides his discomfort well. That comes through
in his tweets, obviously, with his disdain or frustrations often only
thinly veiled. At times, too, it comes through in his physical
presentation, with Trump looking agitated or out of sorts.
That
was the case Monday evening, when the president and first lady joined
Queen Elizabeth II and her family for a formal dinner at Buckingham
Palace. Photos show a sullen-looking Trump standing next to the queen,
hands at his side, a frown on his face. He looks uncomfortable, and one
would be forgiven for assuming that he was.
Photos
of that meeting also made the rounds on social media for another
reason: Trump’s tuxedo didn’t quite appear to fit as one might expect.
Charles, Prince of Wales, was similarly attired, in a tuxedo that
appeared to be proportional. Trump’s, on the other hand, appeared to
have some sort of apron, a splash of white fabric that didn’t quite seem
to work. Bette Midler recommended the president fire his tailor.
It
was one of several recent sartorial questions about the president that
have bounced around the Internet. In an effort to understand what
Trump’s doing — and what he’s doing wrong — we turned to Ezra
Lizio-Katzen, owner of the Washington menswear boutique Ezra Paul. Lizio-Katzen has, in the past, written about Trump’s fashion choices, so he seemed like a natural fit to provide insight into the president’s attire.
The tuxedo
Trump’s
tuxedo consisted of five pieces: The black jacket (known as a
tailcoat), a white shirt, a white tie, a white vest and black pants.
The queen and Trump at the state dinner. (Victoria Jones/Pool/AP)
So what was the problem?
The vest, Lizio-Katzen said, is supposed to be shorter than the front of the tailcoat.
“People
wear their pants much lower than they used to,” he said. “So even
though a vest should be a certain length, if you wear your pants too
low, then you get an unsightly gap between the pants and the bottom of
the vest where your shirt shows.”
With
a regular suit, that’s not necessarily a problem, because the jacket
will cover the bottom of the vest. With a tailcoat, though, the front is
cut shorter. The choice, then, is either a too-long vest or a visible
shirt. That said, Lizio-Katzen said that this case appeared to be
“exceptional” given that several inches of Trump’s vest is showing. (The
jacket, he said, was properly tailored.)
Again,
Charles’s tuxedo is properly proportioned, perhaps in part a function
of his wearing this sort of formalwear more regularly. Part of it, too,
is that Charles probably wears his pants higher — a function largely of
the difference in size between the two men.
“Generally
people with [Trump’s] proportions wear [pants] lower, particularly in
the front,” he said. Men with larger stomachs will often wear pants
below their bellies. In this case, that appears to have meant the need
for a longer vest.
Consideration of Trump’s physical proportions brings us to his pants.
The pants
On
Sunday, Trump visited a church in Virginia. He came directly from his
golf club in Sterling and appeared before the congregation in long,
oversized tan pants.
Trump listens to Pastor David Platt at McLean Bible Church in Vienna, Va., on June 2. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)
Around
Memorial Day, Trump visited Arlington National Cemetery with the first
lady. Again, his pants appeared to be far looser than one might expect.
The Trumps visit Arlington National Cemetery ahead of Memorial Day on May 23. (Kevin Dietsch/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
This,
too, ties back to Trump’s size, according to Lizio-Katzen. He assumes
that Trump buys suits off the rack, rather than having them custom made,
which is where the problem originates.
(GIF by Ezra Paul)
In
his essay about Trump’s suits written in 2017, Lizio-Katzen noted that
Trump wears larger jackets in a likely effort to look broader in the
shoulder — and therefore less disproportionately wide in the middle.
Buying suits off-the-rack, though, has a ripple effect of the suit
fitting awkwardly. (He made the accompanying animation to show how a
slimmer suit would look.)
“Because
he’s wearing a suit size probably two sizes, at least, too big for him
in order to not make it look like he’s got a big stomach and instead
make it look like he’s just a big guy,” he explained, “the pants that
come with that suit are likely too big for him, especially if he wears
the pants below his stomach.”
“That’s why
they’re baggy like that. When you make a suit, everything’s
extrapolated. So if they grow it, the pants keep getting bigger and
bigger and bigger,” he added. The suit designers naturally assume
someone wearing a bigger suit jacket also has much bigger legs. In this
case, Trump doesn’t.
A preference for baggy
pants is to some extent a function of age and style, he said, with men
in recent years generally preferring a trimmer fit. Even buying a suit
off the rack, though, the pants could be taken in and shortened to some
extent.
Especially pants like the ones Trump wore to the church, which weren’t part of a suit.
“That one I can’t really explain,” he said. “They need to be tailored.”
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE because the WaPo actually saw fit to write such an extensive article, which tells us just how fucking weird Trump's outfit choices are, lol...)
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Trump
tours Tyndall Air Force Base, which was damaged by Hurricane Michael on
May 8 in Florida. At right is Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). (Evan Vucci/AP)
Trump’s long ties are an established part of his aesthetic by now. (He has, at least, apparently stopped using Scotch tape to hold the tail of the tie in place.)
“That’s not an acceptable length for a tie,” Lizio-Katzen said. “Nobody wears them that long.”
The
tie “should be flirting with the belt buckle,” he explained. “It should
be a little shorter than your belt or longer, but his is into his fly,
and that’s never really the proportion.”
In his book released last year, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie wrote
that Trump told him to wear longer ties, too, to look thinner.
Lizio-Katzen doesn’t ascribe to that — or to the idea that heavier
people shouldn’t wear horizontal stripes, or that pinstripes are
slimming.
“I don’t know that our eyesight gets cheated that easily,” he said.
We asked Lizio-Katzen what advice he might offer Trump. His response was blunt.
“My
advice would be go on a diet, honestly,” he said. “It’s like Chris
Christie. I can’t make the suit look good on Chris Christie, either.”
Trump
is “doing the only reasonable thing he can, which is just looking like
he’s a big guy,” he added, instead of simply looking like he’s
overweight. It makes sense to wear jackets with broad shoulders, but
Trump “really needs to make those pants trimmer ... more flattering and
shorter.”
And, apparently, to avoid tuxedos with tails.
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Around 04:40 in the morning, the 30-year-old IT entrepreneur Daniel Linde was shot in the head and chest and seriously wounded. Two hours later it was discovered that his employee and neighbor Alexandra Fossmo had also been shot.[1] She was found dead in her bed.[3] The murdered woman was married to Helge Fossmo, a pastor in a local Pentecostal church.[4] Her husband had left with Daniel Linde in the ambulance to the hospital.[1]
The next day 26-year-old Sara Svensson confessed to both shootings. She had worked as a nanny in the pastor's family. Two weeks later, the pastor was also arrested, together with Daniel Linde's wife.[3]Wiretapping had revealed to the police that Sara Svensson and the pastor were lovers. They were both suspected of instigating the murder and murder attempt, but Linde's wife was released after two weeks and never charged.[4]
The Knutby case became so notorious in Sweden that it has been used in fiction as an example of a sensational crime with no need for explanation.[12][13] The name Knutby has also entered the Swedish language as a metaphor, even in contexts that had nothing to do with crime. For instance, a sports journalist who was dismayed that the players on the national football team were putting up a united front against the media and refusing to discuss possible personal conflicts wrote a piece headlined "The National team is like Knutby".
Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
Comments
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/04/trump-trade-fed-cut-rates-1496010
Why Trump’s trade chaos may force Fed to cut rates
Trump's battles have fueled concern that the central bank may have to come to the rescue of the economy.
For months, President Donald Trump has pressed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to make the economy take off like a “rocket ship.” But after his latest move to inflame trade tensions, the Fed might need to lower rates just to stave off a dramatic slowdown.
As Fed officials begin a landmark two-day conference on Tuesday in Chicago to reconsider their approach to fighting inflation, Trump's battles with Mexico, China and every other major U.S. trading partner have fueled concern that the central bank may have to come to the rescue of the economy.
Some of the country's top economic forecasters have raised the specter of a Fed rate cut this year in the wake of Trump's tweet last Thursday threatening to raise tariffs on Mexico over immigration, which sent stocks tumbling the next day. And markets are predicting greater than 50 percent odds that a rate reduction will come as early as July.
“The administration doesn't seem to care how disruptive its actions are," said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, an independent research firm. Trump's actions, he said, are creating "huge C-suite uncertainties. Investment-freezing, employment-chilling and growth-stifling uncertainties.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today said the central bank will keep a close eye on growing trade tensions to determine what actions, if any, the central bank might need to take.
"We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved," Powell said in a speech at the Fed's conference in Chicago. "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion."
The conference was in the works long before Trump began bashing the central bank over its policies. But in the wake of the increasing trade conflicts, markets are watching for clues on what Powell, who has been the main target of the president's wrath, might do.
Trump's tweet on Mexico spooked investors in part because it threw the future of the renegotiated NAFTA deal into doubt and raised the possibility of retaliatory tariffs from the U.S.'s third-largest trading partner. That, plus ongoing quarrels with other trading partners, could imperil the economic expansion, which is set to become the longest in American history this July.
That would leave the Fed as the president’s best buffer to sustain the healthy economy — the most potent selling point for his reelection with voters beyond his base.
Prominent Fed watchers, including Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, and Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor, now expect a reduction in rates this year.
Trump’s Mexico tariff tweet “adds yet another trade-related headwind to the growth outlook,” Feroli said. “Even if a deal is quickly reached with Mexico, which seems plausible, the damage to business confidence could be lasting, with consequences that might still require a Fed response.”
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who gets a vote this year on rate policy actions, suggested in remarks Monday that a cut “may be warranted soon.”
Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at Swiss bank UBS and a former Fed staffer, said the central bank would never lower rates for the purpose of making it easier for the president to fight trade wars, as Trump has explicitly suggested they do.
“On the other hand — an easily imaginable scenario is that the trade war escalates ... and it rattles markets, and it causes the real economy to slow down,” Carpenter said. The Fed would “absolutely take that into consideration” in its monetary policy decisions.
“So, they’re backing into doing what Trump wanted them to do,” he added. “But what else are they going to do if truly their objective is to maintain full employment and price stability?”
Heightening trade tensions adds to the Fed’s already uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy, amid slowing global growth and signals in the Treasury market that could portend a recession. Fed officials have repeatedly cited trade policy as a significant risk to the economy and have maintained a pause in rate changes while they watch how economic conditions unfold.
Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida last week said the central bank views the U.S. economy as being in “a very good place” and expects inflation over time to move up toward the Fed's 2 percent target, suggesting no imminent need for a rate move in either direction.
But he also indicated the central bank is willing to be flexible if that outlook changes, implicitly hinting at the possibility of rate cuts if “global economic and financial developments present a material downside risk to our baseline outlook.”
https://apple.news/AZJ28xXeJRgWqZtwXfxecFg
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https://apple.news/AnFTda-9tSHyvzM7vJzp9lw
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Who is the bigger moron?
The moron-in-chief?
Or
The people who still believe in him, support him, and will vote for him again?
Its time to ACT and hold this fucking idiots responsible.
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/michael-cohen-treated-like-a-celebrity-in-prison
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What to do about Trump’s tailoring? We asked a tailor.
President Trump; Queen Elizabeth II; first lady Melania Trump; Charles, Prince of Wales; and Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall; in London on June 3, 2019. (Alastair Grant/AP)
President Trump is not someone who hides his discomfort well. That comes through in his tweets, obviously, with his disdain or frustrations often only thinly veiled. At times, too, it comes through in his physical presentation, with Trump looking agitated or out of sorts.
That was the case Monday evening, when the president and first lady joined Queen Elizabeth II and her family for a formal dinner at Buckingham Palace. Photos show a sullen-looking Trump standing next to the queen, hands at his side, a frown on his face. He looks uncomfortable, and one would be forgiven for assuming that he was.
Photos of that meeting also made the rounds on social media for another reason: Trump’s tuxedo didn’t quite appear to fit as one might expect. Charles, Prince of Wales, was similarly attired, in a tuxedo that appeared to be proportional. Trump’s, on the other hand, appeared to have some sort of apron, a splash of white fabric that didn’t quite seem to work. Bette Midler recommended the president fire his tailor.
It was one of several recent sartorial questions about the president that have bounced around the Internet. In an effort to understand what Trump’s doing — and what he’s doing wrong — we turned to Ezra Lizio-Katzen, owner of the Washington menswear boutique Ezra Paul. Lizio-Katzen has, in the past, written about Trump’s fashion choices, so he seemed like a natural fit to provide insight into the president’s attire.
The tuxedo
Trump’s tuxedo consisted of five pieces: The black jacket (known as a tailcoat), a white shirt, a white tie, a white vest and black pants.
The queen and Trump at the state dinner. (Victoria Jones/Pool/AP)
So what was the problem?
The vest, Lizio-Katzen said, is supposed to be shorter than the front of the tailcoat.
“People wear their pants much lower than they used to,” he said. “So even though a vest should be a certain length, if you wear your pants too low, then you get an unsightly gap between the pants and the bottom of the vest where your shirt shows.”
With a regular suit, that’s not necessarily a problem, because the jacket will cover the bottom of the vest. With a tailcoat, though, the front is cut shorter. The choice, then, is either a too-long vest or a visible shirt. That said, Lizio-Katzen said that this case appeared to be “exceptional” given that several inches of Trump’s vest is showing. (The jacket, he said, was properly tailored.)
Again, Charles’s tuxedo is properly proportioned, perhaps in part a function of his wearing this sort of formalwear more regularly. Part of it, too, is that Charles probably wears his pants higher — a function largely of the difference in size between the two men.
“Generally people with [Trump’s] proportions wear [pants] lower, particularly in the front,” he said. Men with larger stomachs will often wear pants below their bellies. In this case, that appears to have meant the need for a longer vest.
Consideration of Trump’s physical proportions brings us to his pants.
The pants
On Sunday, Trump visited a church in Virginia. He came directly from his golf club in Sterling and appeared before the congregation in long, oversized tan pants.
Trump listens to Pastor David Platt at McLean Bible Church in Vienna, Va., on June 2. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)
Around Memorial Day, Trump visited Arlington National Cemetery with the first lady. Again, his pants appeared to be far looser than one might expect.
The Trumps visit Arlington National Cemetery ahead of Memorial Day on May 23. (Kevin Dietsch/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
This, too, ties back to Trump’s size, according to Lizio-Katzen. He assumes that Trump buys suits off the rack, rather than having them custom made, which is where the problem originates.
(GIF by Ezra Paul)
In his essay about Trump’s suits written in 2017, Lizio-Katzen noted that Trump wears larger jackets in a likely effort to look broader in the shoulder — and therefore less disproportionately wide in the middle. Buying suits off-the-rack, though, has a ripple effect of the suit fitting awkwardly. (He made the accompanying animation to show how a slimmer suit would look.)
“Because he’s wearing a suit size probably two sizes, at least, too big for him in order to not make it look like he’s got a big stomach and instead make it look like he’s just a big guy,” he explained, “the pants that come with that suit are likely too big for him, especially if he wears the pants below his stomach.”
“That’s why they’re baggy like that. When you make a suit, everything’s extrapolated. So if they grow it, the pants keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger,” he added. The suit designers naturally assume someone wearing a bigger suit jacket also has much bigger legs. In this case, Trump doesn’t.
A preference for baggy pants is to some extent a function of age and style, he said, with men in recent years generally preferring a trimmer fit. Even buying a suit off the rack, though, the pants could be taken in and shortened to some extent.
Especially pants like the ones Trump wore to the church, which weren’t part of a suit.
“That one I can’t really explain,” he said. “They need to be tailored.”
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE because the WaPo actually saw fit to write such an extensive article, which tells us just how fucking weird Trump's outfit choices are, lol...)The ties
Trump tours Tyndall Air Force Base, which was damaged by Hurricane Michael on May 8 in Florida. At right is Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). (Evan Vucci/AP)
Trump’s long ties are an established part of his aesthetic by now. (He has, at least, apparently stopped using Scotch tape to hold the tail of the tie in place.)
“That’s not an acceptable length for a tie,” Lizio-Katzen said. “Nobody wears them that long.”
The tie “should be flirting with the belt buckle,” he explained. “It should be a little shorter than your belt or longer, but his is into his fly, and that’s never really the proportion.”
In his book released last year, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie wrote that Trump told him to wear longer ties, too, to look thinner. Lizio-Katzen doesn’t ascribe to that — or to the idea that heavier people shouldn’t wear horizontal stripes, or that pinstripes are slimming.
“I don’t know that our eyesight gets cheated that easily,” he said.
We asked Lizio-Katzen what advice he might offer Trump. His response was blunt.
“My advice would be go on a diet, honestly,” he said. “It’s like Chris Christie. I can’t make the suit look good on Chris Christie, either.”
Trump is “doing the only reasonable thing he can, which is just looking like he’s a big guy,” he added, instead of simply looking like he’s overweight. It makes sense to wear jackets with broad shoulders, but Trump “really needs to make those pants trimmer ... more flattering and shorter.”
And, apparently, to avoid tuxedos with tails.
https://youtu.be/AA4WFFc5fT4
"I love your eyes"
The preacher in the second segment is crazeeeey. It's like I'm watching a horror movie.
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Won ESC in 1991 (where artists still sang and could win singing in their native tounge):
We also had the Knutby case:
The Knutby murder (Swedish: Knutbydramat) refers to a murder and attempted murder in the village of Knutby east of Uppsala in Sweden, on January 10, 2004.
Around 04:40 in the morning, the 30-year-old IT entrepreneur Daniel Linde was shot in the head and chest and seriously wounded. Two hours later it was discovered that his employee and neighbor Alexandra Fossmo had also been shot.[1] She was found dead in her bed.[3] The murdered woman was married to Helge Fossmo, a pastor in a local Pentecostal church.[4] Her husband had left with Daniel Linde in the ambulance to the hospital.[1]
The next day 26-year-old Sara Svensson confessed to both shootings. She had worked as a nanny in the pastor's family. Two weeks later, the pastor was also arrested, together with Daniel Linde's wife.[3] Wiretapping had revealed to the police that Sara Svensson and the pastor were lovers. They were both suspected of instigating the murder and murder attempt, but Linde's wife was released after two weeks and never charged.[4]
The Knutby case became so notorious in Sweden that it has been used in fiction as an example of a sensational crime with no need for explanation.[12][13] The name Knutby has also entered the Swedish language as a metaphor, even in contexts that had nothing to do with crime. For instance, a sports journalist who was dismayed that the players on the national football team were putting up a united front against the media and refusing to discuss possible personal conflicts wrote a piece headlined "The National team is like Knutby".
https://apple.news/AqMw2bh2bT7aX3UtGSQJJqA
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