Hillary won more votes for President

Cliffy6745

Jason P said:

Free said:

Jason P said:

Hillary is tied with a clown going into the conventions.

cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-going-into-conventions-cbsnyt-poll/

Remember, polls are created to sway voter behavior and for pure drama. This is a pure drama move.

Still, not a good sign. This is like people giving the Golden State Warriors and the Philly 76ers the same odds to win next year's NBA title.

Edit:

More like the Milwaukee Bucks and Philly 76ers ...

It's not. Silver still has Hillary with around a 71% chance of winning. Polls fluctuate. Aggregate all of them

Jearlpam0925

Problem is every 4 years people that don't usually follow statistics and polls, and the such, find time to actually pay attention to them - or be spoon fed dumb sensational articles.

I'm assuming the recent 538 article regarding the latest Quinnipiac poll has been read/referenced?

Gern Blansten

Jearlpam0925 said:

Problem is every 4 years people that don't usually follow statistics and polls, and the such, find time to actually pay attention to them - or be spoon fed dumb sensational articles.

I'm assuming the recent 538 article regarding the latest Quinnipiac poll has been read/referenced?

yes....he factors in all polls and their previous accuracy. His formula is a blend of many factors that seem to be extremely accurate.

Free

Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

Gern Blansten

Free said:

Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

Google him...learn something

Free

Gern Blansten said:

Free said:

Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

Google him...learn something

Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

Kat

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Gern Blansten

Free said:

Gern Blansten said:

Free said:

Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

Google him...learn something

Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

Depending on how you look at them yes the polls are accurate. Some polls are consistently wrong....Silver's model accounts for that. I don't understand why this is so hard for you to understand. I'm not going to lay out a dissertation of his model....google it

Free

These people do nothing but watch the polls like you and I do. We waste our time looking for someone else's analysis when we can easily do it ourselves just look at the polls!

The thing is though the Polls themselves. They are used to manipulate voter behavior, that is a fact, I have a media marketing degree. don't buy into it, vote your values and not what the media tells you to. See past the bullshit.

Free

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.

BS44325

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

Gern Blansten

BS44325 said:

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

Yeah he ignored his model.

Jearlpam0925

Gern Blansten said:

BS44325 said:

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

Yeah he ignored his model.

This is what I love - a guy is wrong once in a while, so then the obvious logic is he'll be wrong every step of the way going forward.

We live in an insane world.

JWPearl

Free said:

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.

And thought so too

Free

JWPearl said:

Free said:

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.

And thought so too

All you have to do is be critical about all the information coming at us. Use critical thinking, and don't believe just anything you read.

rgambs

Free said:

Gern Blansten said:

Free said:

Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

Google him...learn something

Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

Free said:

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.

So if it's all baloney, and used to create drama, you should be able to predict the results of all 50 states too right?

BS44325

Jearlpam0925 said:

Gern Blansten said:

BS44325 said:

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver was already wrong on Trump once...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

Yeah he ignored his model.

This is what I love - a guy is wrong once in a while, so then the obvious logic is he'll be wrong every step of the way going forward.

We live in an insane world.

That isn't the logic being presented. The logic is that even Nate Silver is not infallible. By thinking he's infallible you are tempting fate instead.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Forecast has been adjusted and can be adjusted in either direction as the days and months move on. It is early.

Free

rgambs said:

Free said:

Gern Blansten said:

Free said:

Extremely accurate of what exactly. Every single day these "polls" go up and down. They mean absolutely nothing. They are used to manipulate, and cause nothing but drama and create news stories. That mean absolutely nothing.

Accurate enough for Silver to have correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states in 2012.

Google him...learn something

Predict what?? Polls vary every single day, and you're gonna say that they're accurate? of what? someone's opinion, hmmm.

And, they are most definitely used to sway voters. There is no denying that.

Free said:

Kat said:

Nate Silver out-forecast almost everyone last time. I'm keeping an eye on him and his analysis again this time. Secretary Clinton took a hit but I think she'll rebound because she has the policies.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

All of this is done to create drama. Nothing else.

So if it's all baloney, and used to create drama, you should be able to predict the results of all 50 states too right?

If you think that's something worthy of admiration, go for it. Obviously he's not perfect just like our idols aren't either. Try to look beyond the math and who can predict what, and think for yourself and not what the media wants you to think with polls.

Dirtie_Frank

This is a very interesting tell about the emails that were harmless. I know most won't care but to those who work to keep the country safe it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As78kUZueqM

Free

http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/new_poll_shows_hillary_clinton_tied_with_donald_trump_20160714

Well, well, well. They are tied. Oh, the drama!!!