PHILLY (Loosely Related to The Philadelphia Phillies)

The Juggler · July 2015

Murph on point...

Odds are the Phils got good deal in return for Cole Hamels

David Murphy

IF THE Phillies had fallen in love with Mike Olt as hard as fans wanted back in 2012, they would have traded Cole Hamels for a guy who has a .158 batting average, .579 OPS and 119 strikeouts in 314 major league plate appearances.

So before anybody lambastes the front office for failing to land any of this year's supposed blue-chippers in their long-awaited trade of Hamels, consider the possibility that it wasn't a failure at all, but, rather, a prudent decision to limit their exposure to risk by agreeing to a diversified package of talent that contained a solid mix of predictability and projectability.

Falling in love with a prospect is a dangerous thing to do, because it can make you forget that all prospects are a guessing game to some degree. Your job is to know as much about them as you can, to formulate as accurate a projection about their future as you can, but also to remember that there is a significant amount that nobody can ever know or project, and to build the variability of that unknown into whatever formula you use to place a value on them. The value of each prospect in a package diminishes the value a team can expect out of the subsequent pieces.

Say you estimate that Player A has a 50 percent chance of developing into an elite player and a 70 percent chance of developing into an above-average big-league regular, while Player B and Player C both have a 10 percent chance of becoming elite and a 50 percent chance at becoming above league-average. While Player A gives you a much better chance at landing an elite player, he also gives leaves you more exposed to the risk that you won't land an above-average big-leaguer, because the combined probability that either Player B or Player C develops into an above-average big-leaguer is 75 percent.

The actual calculus is a bit more complicated because, well, it is actual calculus. We're talking about the same kind of processes that actuaries use to determine insurance rates and risk pools.

But the principle is pretty basic: A player like Hamels is worth a certain amount of eggs on the trade market. Put all of them in one strong basket instead of two weaker ones, you've got a better chance of getting all of your eggs home safe. You might also have a better chance at losing them all, depending on how you calculate the chance that the strong basket fails.

In Jorge Alfaro and Jake Thompson the Phillies appear to have done a deft job of diffusing their risk. Alfaro has the higher upside, with raw power that scouts consider elite. His ceiling goes all the way up to someone like Pudge Rodriguez. At the same time, he carries some significant risk, with strikeout and walk rates that could prevent him from ever being able to hit big-league pitching. (He has 61 strikeouts and nine walks in 207 PAs at Double A this season.) But that risk is at least partially offset by Thompson, given the variety of ways in which a pitcher of his profile can help an organization even if he falls short of his potential.

One of the problems with the Phillies' trade of Cliff Lee in 2009 was that all three players they landed were boom-or-bust. Phillippe Aumont might have had a higher ceiling than Thompson, but he also had a much lower floor, given that he was still walking batters at an alarming rate two full years into his minor league career.

This isn't an argument that the Phillies would have been unwise to trade Hamels for Corey Seager or Julio Urias or Aaron Judge, just that they seem to have made the best of what is an unenviable situation for any general manager attempting to acquire young, cost-controlled talent in the current market. Even if only one of these players develops into a meaningful contributor on a playoff-caliber team, the deal will be more successful than most that get consummated this time of year.

Another thing to keep in mind is that it takes a lot more than 25 players to field a playoff team, and the bulk of those extra players are pitchers. The Phillies would be a bad team regardless of their rotation, but it is their pitching that makes them look like a historically awful team. The lack of depth at the position in the minors is something that they have addressed over the last year, adding arms like Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively and now Alec Asher and Jerad Eickhoff in addition to higher upside pieces in Thompson and Aaron Nola. Nola and Thompson are the two that are most likely to develop into starters in a playoff-caliber rotation, but starters like that often get hurt, and a team needs a capable replacement to stay in the playoff hunt. Sometimes, those replacements can surprise you, like the Phillies saw with Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ and Vance Worley.

The package for Hamels appears to be a solid mix of ceilings and floors, probability and potential. The Phillies' next playoff contender will not be built overnight. It will be a process of attrition. This was the obvious next step, and it was a good one.

Jearlpam0925 · July 2015

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris

Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.

Cliffy6745 · July 2015

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.

ha, I didn't realize he could block the Jays

F Me In The Brain · July 2015

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
except Hamels wasn't accepting a trade to Toronto and he already turned down Houston. Your choices were Texas and the Dodgers and the Dodgers clearly weren't giving up their top 2 prospects.
Yup. Plus he turned down a chance to go to Houston. Bottom line is the Phils made the best deal available to them. Reasonable people understand this.

The fuck? Did you guys just agree on something?

There is hope in the middle east!
I see my beloved Reds trading their shit all away and just need to remind ourselves that nobody knows how these things will work out for a few years. Cole could tear his elbow up tomorrow playing catch with his kids. (Hope not) Have to see what you can get and take the best offer out there. (I guess the best offer not from a division rival.)
I would have thought they would take less on the prospect side and insist that some moneybags team (Dodgers/Yankees) take big Howard as part of the deal. Maybe they tried, who knows.

Jearlpam0925 · July 2015

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.
ha, I didn't realize he could block the Jays

What's his problem with Toronto, Cliff? Toronto's cool. I mean, I'd go.

Cliffy6745 · July 2015

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.
ha, I didn't realize he could block the Jays
What's his problem with Toronto, Cliff? Toronto's cool. I mean, I'd go.

Toronto is a bunch of nerds. Think they live in New York City, play in a stupid dome, and are incredibly underrated as a terrible group of fans. Go play hockey, Canadians.

Jearlpam0925 · July 2015

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.
ha, I didn't realize he could block the Jays
What's his problem with Toronto, Cliff? Toronto's cool. I mean, I'd go.
Toronto is a bunch of nerds. Think they live in New York City, play in a stupid dome, and are incredibly underrated as a terrible group of fans. Go play hockey, Canadians.

It is a nice city. Rather world-class, I'd say. New York of the North. How 'bout that?

"And frankly, the city they claim to represent is no longer the Greatest City In The World. Have you been to New York lately? It’s a fucking trash pile. New York was already a town of starry-eyed yokels, conformists doing a stint in the big city before settling down on the set of a John Hughes movie, legit war criminals, and what not. But now it comes with a permanent toilet aroma."

Not my words, Cliff. Not. My. Words.

Cliffy6745 · July 2015

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.
ha, I didn't realize he could block the Jays
What's his problem with Toronto, Cliff? Toronto's cool. I mean, I'd go.
Toronto is a bunch of nerds. Think they live in New York City, play in a stupid dome, and are incredibly underrated as a terrible group of fans. Go play hockey, Canadians.
It is a nice city. Rather world-class, I'd say. New York of the North. How 'bout that?

"And frankly, the city they claim to represent is no longer the Greatest City In The World. Have you been to New York lately? It’s a fucking trash pile. New York was already a town of starry-eyed yokels, conformists doing a stint in the big city before settling down on the set of a John Hughes movie, legit war criminals, and what not. But now it comes with a permanent toilet aroma."

Not my words, Cliff. Not. My. Words.

Stop it. It is a fine Canadian city. Have been an number of times, always had a good time, but that's where I leave it. And at the end of the day, you're in Canada.

I don't know if you noticed, but Philly doesn't exactly smell like roses.

Jearlpam0925 · July 2015

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.
ha, I didn't realize he could block the Jays
What's his problem with Toronto, Cliff? Toronto's cool. I mean, I'd go.
Toronto is a bunch of nerds. Think they live in New York City, play in a stupid dome, and are incredibly underrated as a terrible group of fans. Go play hockey, Canadians.
It is a nice city. Rather world-class, I'd say. New York of the North. How 'bout that?

"And frankly, the city they claim to represent is no longer the Greatest City In The World. Have you been to New York lately? It’s a fucking trash pile. New York was already a town of starry-eyed yokels, conformists doing a stint in the big city before settling down on the set of a John Hughes movie, legit war criminals, and what not. But now it comes with a permanent toilet aroma."

Not my words, Cliff. Not. My. Words.
Stop it. It is a fine Canadian city. Have been an number of times, always had a good time, but that's where I leave it. And at the end of the day, you're in Canada.

I don't know if you noticed, but Philly doesn't exactly smell like roses.

Especially on trash day(s). Nothing like a fine bike commute in the morning when it's 80 degrees at 7AM and warm wafts of hot garbage hit you in the face. Philly's the best.

Welcome to an eternity of Hell, Cliff - living in the very heart of Eagles country for the rest of your life. Might wanna watch your games at Big Charlie's with the Chiefs fans.

Cliffy6745 · July 2015

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Cliffy6745 said:
The one thing I will say is that I would take the Tigers haul over the Phillies 10 times out of 10 and they had a much less valuable piece

Phillies seems fine. Some half way decent potential but nothing like Norris
Blah blah blah blaaahhhhhhhhh.

As of the last updated list I could find of Hamels here were the list of teams he was allowing trades to: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers.

Every team that was brought up to which people are saying did better, etc etc etc etceteraaaaaa.....Tigers? 'Stros? My penis? Where are they on there? Lemme put on my readin' glasses, and check that list again...

I WISH Norris was in the Phillies' farm. Easily would be the first Phils jersey I would buy in 5 years, even if he wasn't on the team yet.

But.....soooo.....if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. That's the moral of this story I'd say.
ha, I didn't realize he could block the Jays
What's his problem with Toronto, Cliff? Toronto's cool. I mean, I'd go.
Toronto is a bunch of nerds. Think they live in New York City, play in a stupid dome, and are incredibly underrated as a terrible group of fans. Go play hockey, Canadians.
It is a nice city. Rather world-class, I'd say. New York of the North. How 'bout that?

"And frankly, the city they claim to represent is no longer the Greatest City In The World. Have you been to New York lately? It’s a fucking trash pile. New York was already a town of starry-eyed yokels, conformists doing a stint in the big city before settling down on the set of a John Hughes movie, legit war criminals, and what not. But now it comes with a permanent toilet aroma."

Not my words, Cliff. Not. My. Words.
Stop it. It is a fine Canadian city. Have been an number of times, always had a good time, but that's where I leave it. And at the end of the day, you're in Canada.

I don't know if you noticed, but Philly doesn't exactly smell like roses.

Especially on trash day(s). Nothing like a fine bike commute in the morning when it's 80 degrees at 7AM and warm wafts of hot garbage hit you in the face. Philly's the best.

Welcome to an eternity of Hell, Cliff - living in the very heart of Eagles country for the rest of your life. Might wanna watch your games at Big Charlie's with the Chiefs fans.

Nothing ever written has made this city sound more attractive to me...

The Juggler · July 2015

Blue Jays in mix for Revere too?

Jearlpam0925 · July 2015

The Juggler said:
Blue Jays in mix for Revere too?

O's, too, apparently.

In a semi-related note, Vance Worley DFA'ed yesterday....to make room for....Joe Blanton.

eeriepadave · July 2015

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:
Blue Jays in mix for Revere too?
O's, too, apparently.

In a semi-related note, Vance Worley DFA'ed yesterday....to make room for....Joe Blanton.

looks like the Blue Jays it is.

CSN’s Jim Salisbury reported that the two players coming to the Phils organization are righty hurlers Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado.

Cordero, a 23-year-old Dominican, tallied a save and a 2.92 ERA along with 22 strike outs and 14 walks over 24 2/3 innings in 17 games for Double-A New Hampshire. Prior to his promotion to the Eastern League, Cordero notched a 0-1 record a save and a 2.49 ERA while striking out 24 and walking six over 25 1/3 innings in 15 relief outing for Class A Advanced Dunedin this season. The six-foot-three 215-pounder sports an impressive mid-90′s fastball.

Tirado, a 20-year-old Dominican, had a 4-3 record with three saves, a 3.23 ERA and an 8.95 K/9 mark in 31 relief appearances for Dunedin. At six-feet, 180-pounds, he has potential for a steady plus fastball, already clocking in the 95-96 MPH range regularly in his young career. Tirado was ranked as the number 76 prospect in the sport headed into the 2014 season.

With this duo of power arms, the Phils may have landed a couple of key bullpen contributors for the future. Fans who were excited about the prospect depth the Phils have built since the end of last season with previous trades, should be even more pumped up with the return for Revere from the Blue Jays.
- See more at: http://philliesnation.com/archives/2015/07/ben-revere-traded-to-blue-jays/#sthash.wKVfA2J1.dpuf

eeriepadave · August 2015

Cliffy6745 said:
Believe it or not, I was at Morgan's pier with the fixer when that happened

i was at penn's landing. Well actually listening to the game in the car on my way there. It was funny cause the last out for a second or two the people listening on their radio didn't know if he caught it or not.

Where was this team the first half of the season?

Jearlpam0925 · August 2015

Gotta say, didn't do too bad on the return on Revere...

Wobbie · August 2015

what year are the phillies relevant again?

The Juggler · August 2015

Bauman, another Amaro basher on Grantland, has the Phils as one of the deadline's winners:

The Phillies continued to progress in their rebuild by trading the franchise’s all-time saves leader (and sometime crotch grabber and dog jostler) Jonathan Papelbon to Washington for Nick Pivetta. Then, on deadline day, they offloaded Revere, who’d been rendered surplus to requirements by Odubel Herrera, to Toronto for two hard-throwing minor leaguers.

But the biggest coup for the Phillies was shipping ace Cole Hamels to Texas. After getting nothing out of the draft for almost a decade and lacking other impact trade chips, it was of paramount importance that the Phillies get the Hamels trade right.

Even though it took almost a year, and even though the Phillies didn’t get the kind of global top-10 prospect they wanted, they still did a good job, netting three Double-A players with All-Star upside; two nice lower-tier pitching prospects; and veteran starter Matt Harrison, who may never return to his prior form, but who enabled Philly to fetch better prospects as compensation for absorbing his contract. This was a smart, well-timed, well-constructed deal for a franchise that really needed it.

Empty Glass · August 2015

imalive said:
what year are the phillies relevant again?

2nd half of 2015. Team is legit now (Sarcasm)

eeriepadave · August 2015

Empty Glass said:

imalive said:
what year are the phillies relevant again?
2nd half of 2015. Team is legit now (Sarcasm)

One game behind the Marlins now!

Phillies have a better shot at the division title than a wildcard. 15 games out of first place and 17 out of a wildcard.

Jearlpam0925 · August 2015

Phils better make a run at Dombrowski...

PHILLY (Loosely Related to The Philadelphia Phillies)

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