* * * * The National Football League - 2011 * * * *

The Juggler

bill belichick is one crafty motherfucker.

mickeyrat

The Juggler wrote:

bill belichick is one crafty motherfucker.

cheaters usually are.

The Juggler

mickeyrat wrote:

The Juggler wrote:

bill belichick is one crafty motherfucker.

cheaters usually are.

i'd hire him as my coach in a nano second

norm

The Juggler wrote:

bill belichick is one crafty motherfucker.

i think you mean crazy motherfucker

haynesworth and ochoasshat!!

The Juggler

norm wrote:

The Juggler wrote:

bill belichick is one crafty motherfucker.

i think you mean crazy motherfucker

haynesworth and ochoasshat!!

wow ....i love how he's not afraid of thinking outside the box like this though.

The Fixer

vince young and his uncle rico throwing mechanics to philly.

interesting offseason for the birds

The Fixer

mike shanahan...continuing to prove that he's the most overrated coach in NFL history.

this story is GOLD

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... sman-beck/

The Juggler

attention teams of the national football league:

BRING IT.

The Juggler

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... v-package/

love this idea. thursday night football all season long.

Mamasan23

The Fixer wrote:

mike shanahan...continuing to prove that he's the most overrated coach in NFL history.

this story is GOLD

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... sman-beck/

Can someone please explain to me why Grossman keeps getting these chances?!

Mamasan23

The Juggler wrote:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/01/goodells-next-priority-new-thursday-night-tv-package/

love this idea. thursday night football all season long.

My selfish side likes this idea only because that would mean more days of football, but I'm not sure that I could back this. Prepping for a game on a short week like that makes me nervous. They'd have to schedule it so that the teams' byes are the week before in order for it to work.

The Juggler

Mamasan23 wrote:

The Juggler wrote:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/01/goodells-next-priority-new-thursday-night-tv-package/

love this idea. thursday night football all season long.

My selfish side likes this idea only because that would mean more days of football, but I'm not sure that I could back this. Prepping for a game on a short week like that makes me nervous. They'd have to schedule it so that the teams' byes are the week before in order for it to work.

agreed. i would think they'd have to schedule teams coming off a bye to make this work.

The Juggler

interesting...espn is coming out with a new quarterback rating system aimed at displacing the passer-rating:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... arterbacks

How to identify NFL's best quarterbacks
August, 1, 2011 Aug 19:30AM ETEmail Print Comments By Mike SandoThe late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."

I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.

Game situations should count for something, and now they do.

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.

[+] EnlargeAl Bello/Getty Images
According to an outline for the rating system, Tom Brady would fall in the "top tier" category.I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.

Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.

The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.

"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."

Now it can, along with a whole lot more.

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:


Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.


Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.


Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.


Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.


Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.


Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.

"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.

81

Do we really need a number to tell us who the best qb's are? Really ?

The Juggler

81 wrote:

Do we really need a number to tell us who the best qb's are? Really ?

be nice if that number was something you could actually understand as opposed to the qb rating right?

81

The Juggler wrote:

81 wrote:

Do we really need a number to tell us who the best qb's are? Really ?

be nice if that number was something you could actually understand as opposed to the qb rating right?

and you understand how the forumla works in the espn calculation? might as well call it the bcsqb formula.

we all know manning, brady, brees and rodgers are at the top qb's without looking at a single number.

The Juggler

81 wrote:

The Juggler wrote:

81 wrote:

Do we really need a number to tell us who the best qb's are? Really ?

be nice if that number was something you could actually understand as opposed to the qb rating right?

and you understand how the forumla works in the espn calculation? might as well call it the bcsqb formula.

we all know manning, brady, brees and rodgers are at the top qb's without looking at a single number.

no because they haven't released the calculation yet. comes out friday.

i do like how this will have a greater importance on clutch situations.

81

IMO, sounds like a bunch of mental masterbastion that at the end of the day, isn't going to tell us much more than we already know.

sort of reminds me of the war stat.

The Juggler

81 wrote:

IMO, sounds like a bunch of mental masterbastion that at the end of the day, isn't going to tell us much more than we already know.

sort of reminds me of the war stat.

ha...yeah you may have a point as it looks like the all the top tier qb's on that list were the top ones in the passer rating lists.

still i also just think it is annoying when people marvel at a guy who had a 120 rating in a game. nobody knows what the means (like war). we all know it's good...but not why. at least this will be easier to understand. hopefully.

81

The Juggler wrote:

at least this will be easier to understand. hopefully.

sooo, whatcha think a 4 yard completion on 2 and 20 from your own 10, down 4 in the 1st quarter is worth when facing the eagles D vs. the rams D?

they are taking defensive ratings into this? right?