Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Wow, almost impossible 

The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.

Hey, we could all debate this till the cows come home, we all love the band we all love each other. Why don’t we agree on some simple set of parameters for the difficult to get Northeast tickets into a probability analysis or an expected result analysis based on mathematics? Why don’t we just say for each difficult to get category such as P1 or GA, there are 1000 available tickets and 15,000 fans looking to get those tickets? Why can’t we just do the math on that and see what the statistical probability is to hit two shows, three shows, four shows with the GA, etc.?

It’s basic math we can make basic estimates and see what the odds are. It’s not a mystery. It’s math.

Zod said:

mace1229 said:

mcgruff10 said:

I saw this on facebook but do agree with these ideas moving forward:

For 10c lottery, every city with multiple shows should be that nobody gets both shows until everyone requesting gets at least one.

Don't start the verified fan registration until 10c lottery is complete.  That leaves a better chance (less people registered) for the ones that missed out in the 10c draw.

For example: now I won't need to buy in the verified fan sale since I got 10c tickets but someone who missed out on 10c tickets could get waitlisted.

I don't know what was wrong with the old system. All #1 picks before any #2, etc. 
Only way to improve that would be if you don't win your #1, then your #2 then becomes a #1 pick. 
That would almost guarantee at least 1 or 2 wins. 

I think the TM system might have basic logic.   U2 uses the same system but they don't have seniority (well they sort of do, if you were a member before the tour announcement your order is prioritized over members who signed up after the announcement).   They don't have seats by seniority, and you could only get tickets for 1 sphere show, so no 2nd, 3rd priorities to mess up.   Once you got tickets, you're done.

It went so smooth but I'm guessing due to less complexity than what 10c does.  Seniority probably makes assigning the seats a bit challenging, and probably explains why it's been messed up a few times.

I think the TM system struggles with compexity.

I'm new here but not new to U2. The Sphere presale was a clusterf*** prompting the first apology from the band since the infamous Vertigo presale. It was done very differently in that it was like this one where you were assigned seats as opposed to the usual code you got. They ended up having to do a makeup presale which is how I even got tix. Nightmare. Now I think it had more to do with how few tix there were originally allocated, and complexities given the seating (mostly U2 fans are GA or bust as they usually do full floor GA).

Admittedly, this is my first Ten Club presale, but it definitely beat that. I only requested LA, and got both, P1. Friends got both LA shows, and one of the 2 Vegas shows. Is it possible whatever TM used to randomize didn't work properly, for sure. But it's also possible it's just coincidence.

NewfieintheUSA said:

Get_Right said:

mookieblalock said:

PJNB said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Merkin Baller said:

Well said @mpedone. 

I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it. 

I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows. 

I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either 

This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.

The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.

We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.

Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end. 

Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before. 

With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.

each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.

How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.

It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.

Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.

Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.

based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.

I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery 

How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account? 

Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.

That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch 

But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.

DING DING DING DING

You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here

Okay. whatever you say.

You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto. 

not even close, state lottery odds are much worse

I agree with that

I didn't even say that either lol. 

Lerxst1992 said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Wow, almost impossible 

The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.

Hey, we could all debate this till the cows come home, we all love the band we all love each other. Why don’t we agree on some simple set of parameters for the difficult to get Northeast tickets into a probability analysis or an expected result analysis based on mathematics? Why don’t we just say for each difficult to get category such as P1 or GA, there are 1000 available tickets and 15,000 fans looking to get those tickets? Why can’t we just do the math on that and see what the statistical probability is to hit two shows, three shows, four shows with the GA, etc.?

It’s basic math we can make basic estimates and see what the odds are. It’s not a mystery. It’s math.

0.002% to hit GA for 4 out of 4 shows

I also got a lower bowl seat for Vegas when selecting only GA-P1 so the theory that GA-P1 = floor and P1 = stands is debunked as well 

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Get_Right said:

mookieblalock said:

PJNB said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Merkin Baller said:

Well said @mpedone. 

I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it. 

I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows. 

I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either 

This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.

The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.

We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.

Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end. 

Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before. 

With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.

each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.

How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.

It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.

Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.

Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.

based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.

I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery 

How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account? 

Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.

That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch 

But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.

DING DING DING DING

You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here

Okay. whatever you say.

You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto. 

not even close, state lottery odds are much worse

I agree with that

Of course you do. 

Yes because it's factual

I’m beginning to doubt your background in applied mathematics.

Is that a challenge? 😂

SHZA said:

I also got a lower bowl seat for Vegas when selecting only GA-P1 so the theory that GA-P1 = floor and P1 = stands is debunked as well 

This tour or last tour? I selected all GA-P1 this tour and I am at 3 for 3 being way back on the floor (beside the mixing board). 

More people with the exact same seats to both nights
This is crazy

NewfieintheUSA said:

More people with the exact same seats to both nights
This is crazy

Statistically possible. If you question this at all, you don't know mathematics. Haha

At least 4 or 5 reports of people with the exact same seats 2 nights in a row. Many more of people in the same section and row 2 nights in a row. This is basically impossible if this was truly random