Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues

LukinTimer

SHZA said:

mookieblalock said:

Options = boxes. Sorry you would interpret it any other way. Otherwise what would be the point of the disclaimer??

Agree, options = boxes. It doesn't say "selecting all options [or boxes] will increase your chances." It says "select all options below for Best Available." It then goes on to say "selecting multiple seat preferences will increase your chances." If "multiple seat preferences" was just another way of saying "options" [or boxes], they would have said "selecting all options below will increase your chances of getting tickets." Instead, they said selecting "multiple seat preferences" will increase your chances. That means if you select a single seat preference, i.e., P1 only or P2 only, you have a lesser chance than if you select multiple preferences, i.e., P1 + P2, or GA/P1 + P2, or GA/P1. It doesn't mean you have a lesser chance unless you select the same seat preference multiple times. 

^^^^^^ THIS

dogmatt

..

Lerxst1992

mpedone said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJNB said:

mpedone said:

You all are still arguing odds? Seriously? I thought it was pretty clear that this lottery didn't work the way we all assumed it would.

It actually worked out a bit better than I thought it would actually after last year lol. 

We have time for a redraw, don't get complacent

I think you’re joking, but I doubt they’re going to have a redraw, as it would be difficult to prove a bad lottery here. When they had the seniority problem last year, that’s easy to prove without investigating what TM did. Members could compare results and it became obvious something was amiss. All we can say here is allegedly twenty or thirty or how many fans hit a PJ Quadrella when probability says it should be one in five or ten thousand. Can’t prove it and I doubt TM is admitting anything. In this case , it “seems” there is a chance that the same or very similar random number generator result was used for different shows.

it’s funny to the many here that try to make the point, hey just because one draw is independent of the other it’s very easy to get lucky twice. The truth is the randomness should make it much more difficult.


more importantly, is there a verified fan thread, when is that email coming out, tonight right? Can’t wait for that rejection, as the odds for an msg code must be way worse than winning the fan club lottery for MSG, helloooo stub hub.

Again, how is this a "bad draw"? Isn't it more likely that it's just a methodology we weren't expecting and don't like?

The methodology is a random sample draw. If odds are 10% for each of the very difficult Northeast shows to obtain, hitting four of these shows is one in 10,000. So if the fan club gets allocated 10,000 seats per show, one fan should have won four shows, no more. It's as simple as that

mpedone

Lerxst1992 said:

mpedone said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJNB said:

mpedone said:

You all are still arguing odds? Seriously? I thought it was pretty clear that this lottery didn't work the way we all assumed it would.

It actually worked out a bit better than I thought it would actually after last year lol. 

We have time for a redraw, don't get complacent

I think you’re joking, but I doubt they’re going to have a redraw, as it would be difficult to prove a bad lottery here. When they had the seniority problem last year, that’s easy to prove without investigating what TM did. Members could compare results and it became obvious something was amiss. All we can say here is allegedly twenty or thirty or how many fans hit a PJ Quadrella when probability says it should be one in five or ten thousand. Can’t prove it and I doubt TM is admitting anything. In this case , it “seems” there is a chance that the same or very similar random number generator result was used for different shows.

it’s funny to the many here that try to make the point, hey just because one draw is independent of the other it’s very easy to get lucky twice. The truth is the randomness should make it much more difficult.


more importantly, is there a verified fan thread, when is that email coming out, tonight right? Can’t wait for that rejection, as the odds for an msg code must be way worse than winning the fan club lottery for MSG, helloooo stub hub.

Again, how is this a "bad draw"? Isn't it more likely that it's just a methodology we weren't expecting and don't like?

The methodology is a random sample draw. If odds are 10% for each of the very difficult Northeast shows to obtain, hitting four of these shows is one in 10,000. So if the fan club gets allocated 10,000 seats per show, one fan should have won four shows, no more. It's as simple as that

We ASSUME the methodology is a random sample draw. Nowhere in the instructions does it specify how tickets would be drawn. Folks have suggested other methodologies TM may have used that would fit the reported patterns without glitches or broken code or any need for invalidation/redraws.

Lerxst1992

mpedone said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mpedone said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJNB said:

mpedone said:

You all are still arguing odds? Seriously? I thought it was pretty clear that this lottery didn't work the way we all assumed it would.

It actually worked out a bit better than I thought it would actually after last year lol. 

We have time for a redraw, don't get complacent

I think you’re joking, but I doubt they’re going to have a redraw, as it would be difficult to prove a bad lottery here. When they had the seniority problem last year, that’s easy to prove without investigating what TM did. Members could compare results and it became obvious something was amiss. All we can say here is allegedly twenty or thirty or how many fans hit a PJ Quadrella when probability says it should be one in five or ten thousand. Can’t prove it and I doubt TM is admitting anything. In this case , it “seems” there is a chance that the same or very similar random number generator result was used for different shows.

it’s funny to the many here that try to make the point, hey just because one draw is independent of the other it’s very easy to get lucky twice. The truth is the randomness should make it much more difficult.


more importantly, is there a verified fan thread, when is that email coming out, tonight right? Can’t wait for that rejection, as the odds for an msg code must be way worse than winning the fan club lottery for MSG, helloooo stub hub.

Again, how is this a "bad draw"? Isn't it more likely that it's just a methodology we weren't expecting and don't like?

The methodology is a random sample draw. If odds are 10% for each of the very difficult Northeast shows to obtain, hitting four of these shows is one in 10,000. So if the fan club gets allocated 10,000 seats per show, one fan should have won four shows, no more. It's as simple as that

We ASSUME the methodology is a random sample draw. Nowhere in the instructions does it specify how tickets would be drawn. Folks have suggested other methodologies TM may have used that would fit the reported patterns without glitches or broken code or any need for invalidation/redraws.

If it's not completely random then that's something they need to disclose. They would be off the charts  worse organization than take a master. That would be nasty to not be a random draw and not tell people what they're doing so they can try to make the best moves that they can possibly make

CO278952

eternal 

DP13

The same folks that say:

"It's a lottery, it is random" to anyone that crying that they didn't win....

Have no problem explaining away the long or extremely long odds that member after member are claiming to have achieved all over PJ internet.  Even if 90% of these people are lying or exaggerating (results achieved with multiple accounts), even a handful of fans hitting million to one shots prove this was not a true lottery.  

It was clearly a flawed process that did not replicate a random lottery, so it is reasonable for losers to be frustrated. 

BF25394

DP13 said:

The same folks that say:

"It's a lottery, it is random" to anyone that crying that they didn't win....

Have no problem explaining away the long or extremely long odds that member after member are claiming to have achieved all over PJ internet.  Even if 90% of these people are lying or exaggerating (results achieved with multiple accounts), even a handful of fans hitting million to one shots prove this was not a true lottery.  

It was clearly a flawed process that did not replicate a random lottery, so it is reasonable for losers to be frustrated. 

I know the logic of this post seems airtight to you, but others may not agree.

johnny__utah

If you check out the Ticketmaster blog post for the NA tour, the wording for 'ticketmaster request' being used to power the fanclub presale, kinda maybe in a way leaves it open to the likely not so wild idea that if you put in for both shows and won the first, you were automatically chosen for both. The lotto being that you had to get picked in the first place.

LukinTimer

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Okay, this is weird. That happened to us too. My husband got both Seattle shows, and they are the same exact seats for each night. That has never happened before. 

LukinTimer

NewfieintheUSA said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Wow, almost impossible 

We got the same exact seats for both nights of Seattle as well. It has never happened before. It's been close before, but never the same exact seats. 

darwinstheory

LukinTimer said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Wow, almost impossible 

We got the same exact seats for both nights of Seattle as well. It has never happened before. It's been close before, but never the same exact seats. 

But since it is statistically possible, there is nothing to see here. All the shows had a completely seperate random lottery. It just turns out your husband completely randomly drew the same seat for the second show in the same city. Again, random.

At least according to some folks around here.

BF25394

darwinstheory said:

LukinTimer said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Wow, almost impossible 

We got the same exact seats for both nights of Seattle as well. It has never happened before. It's been close before, but never the same exact seats. 

But since it is statistically possible, there is nothing to see here. All the shows had a completely seperate random lottery. It just turns out your husband completely randomly drew the same seat for the second show in the same city. Again, random.

At least according to some folks around here.

The lottery drawing and the seat assignments are two separate processes. Under your theory, how do you account for the fact that most people who got tickets to both nights in one city did not get the same seats for the two nights?

bootleg

LukinTimer said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Okay, this is weird. That happened to us too. My husband got both Seattle shows, and they are the same exact seats for each night. That has never happened before. 

Curious what section and what member number?

marra2312

It's also *more* likely for certain people to get certain seats. Let's say someone has 10C #1. If they get seats for both shows in a venue, unless the system actually changes which seat is the best, they would absolutely get the same seats each show, no?

Obviously as the 10C # increases the chances of that happening start to dramatically decrease. But it's not impossible for someone to be, say, the 100th lowest # pulled for both shows (even if the exact 10C # that are pulled ahead of them are not the same). Especially as you would imagine that many of the same people who are putting in for multiple shows in one city are the same.

That's different to all the things about winning GA multiple times etc. There's a perfectly logical path why someone might end up with the same seats. In fact, I'm slightly surprised we don't see it more.

LukinTimer

bootleg said:

LukinTimer said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Okay, this is weird. That happened to us too. My husband got both Seattle shows, and they are the same exact seats for each night. That has never happened before. 

Curious what section and what member number?

Section 12, I think row 4 or 5. He has a very low 10c number. So, they have been similar seats in previous draws. That being said, they have never been the exact same seats. And in Vancouver BC, where he also won both nights, they are not the exact same seats. 

We've known there were issues with the TM seating from the beginning because his number is so low. You know everyone around you, you've been sitting near them for decades. We know a lot of their numbers, yet once TM took over the draw/seating there have always been people with higher numbers than his seated in front of us at every show. A friend who has a 10c that is more than double my husbands was seated in row one, in the first side section, in Ottawa I think it was, and we were seated in row 3. The friend was surprised, no one could make sense of it. We never really mentioned it because "first world problems." We wondered if maybe TM was seating in blocks or something.  

Zod

LukinTimer said:

bootleg said:

LukinTimer said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Okay, this is weird. That happened to us too. My husband got both Seattle shows, and they are the same exact seats for each night. That has never happened before. 

Curious what section and what member number?

Section 12, I think row 4 or 5. He has a very low 10c number. So, they have been similar seats in previous draws. That being said, they have never been the exact same seats. And in Vancouver BC, where he also won both nights, they are not the exact same seats. 

How does he know the Vancouver seats, I thought they hadn't be drawn yet?

LukinTimer

Zod said

How does he know the Vancouver seats, I thought they hadn't be drawn yet?

Doh, you're right! We got some seats through a Canucks season ticket holder. So, I was thinking of those seats, not the 10c ones. So, I guess we'll see where they end up being. 

mpedone

Lerxst1992 said:

mpedone said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mpedone said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJNB said:

mpedone said:

You all are still arguing odds? Seriously? I thought it was pretty clear that this lottery didn't work the way we all assumed it would.

It actually worked out a bit better than I thought it would actually after last year lol. 

We have time for a redraw, don't get complacent

I think you’re joking, but I doubt they’re going to have a redraw, as it would be difficult to prove a bad lottery here. When they had the seniority problem last year, that’s easy to prove without investigating what TM did. Members could compare results and it became obvious something was amiss. All we can say here is allegedly twenty or thirty or how many fans hit a PJ Quadrella when probability says it should be one in five or ten thousand. Can’t prove it and I doubt TM is admitting anything. In this case , it “seems” there is a chance that the same or very similar random number generator result was used for different shows.

it’s funny to the many here that try to make the point, hey just because one draw is independent of the other it’s very easy to get lucky twice. The truth is the randomness should make it much more difficult.


more importantly, is there a verified fan thread, when is that email coming out, tonight right? Can’t wait for that rejection, as the odds for an msg code must be way worse than winning the fan club lottery for MSG, helloooo stub hub.

Again, how is this a "bad draw"? Isn't it more likely that it's just a methodology we weren't expecting and don't like?

The methodology is a random sample draw. If odds are 10% for each of the very difficult Northeast shows to obtain, hitting four of these shows is one in 10,000. So if the fan club gets allocated 10,000 seats per show, one fan should have won four shows, no more. It's as simple as that

We ASSUME the methodology is a random sample draw. Nowhere in the instructions does it specify how tickets would be drawn. Folks have suggested other methodologies TM may have used that would fit the reported patterns without glitches or broken code or any need for invalidation/redraws.

If it's not completely random then that's something they need to disclose. They would be off the charts  worse organization than take a master. That would be nasty to not be a random draw and not tell people what they're doing so they can try to make the best moves that they can possibly make

First, let's clarify. We assume that the draw will be done show-by-show, picking completely randomly from the members who put in request for that show.

However, what if it worked like this: We submit our request (said request being a list of all the shows we would like to purchase tickets for and our price tier preferences). Ticketmaster completely randomly draws members and fulfills as much of what is available for that request.

That is still "completely random", just not in the way we all assumed it would be.

Here's the wording from Ten Club's instructions:

"Step 3. Complete the ticket request form, including selecting the date(s), the number of tickets you are requesting, and ticket type preference.

Step 4. Once you’ve completed the form you will be immediately directed to your Request Summary Page. You will also receive an email acknowledging your ticket request, as well as important rules and details on what to expect next.

Once the ticket request window has officially closed, no edits can be made. 

TICKET CONFIRMATIONS

Ticket requests will be confirmed following the below schedule:

...

If your request is confirmed, you will receive an email with your payment summary and details on upcoming ticket delivery. You will also be notified via email if your request is not confirmed."

And, from the Ticketmaster blog:

"What is Ticketmaster Request?

Pearl Jam is using Ticketmaster Request to power this fan club presale. Ticketmaster Request is a simple way to request tickets to popular shows, so you don’t have to compete in a first-come, first-served sale. You can take your time to review the available options and request the right tickets for you. All you need to do is tell us which show(s) you’re interested in, the type of ticket you want and your payment details. If tickets that match your request are available, your card will be charged, and we’ll email you instructions on how to view them. Note: each show you are confirmed for will be charged separately by Ticketmaster; the charge will appear as Ticketmaster*Pearl Jam."

"How does the Ten Club ticket request work?

Complete your request in three easy steps. First, tell us what shows and tickets you’re interested in. Then, provide a credit card to complete your ticket request. If your request is fulfilled, your card will be charged and we’ll email you a confirmation with instructions on how to view your tickets during the week of February 19. Note: tickets will not show in your Ticketmaster account until all seating assignments are finalized."

"Can I request tickets for more than one city?

Yes. By submitting a ticket request for any show, you are committing to purchase the ticket(s) should your request be fulfilled. For example, if you enter for five shows, it is possible your request can be fulfilled for all five shows in which case your credit card will immediately be charged for tickets to all five shows. However, you can only purchase up to two Ten Club tickets for each individual show. All tickets will be non-transferable in all states except where it is prohibited by law."

"How will tickets be determined for Ten Club members?

To level the playing field, ticket requests are fulfilled in a randomized selection process. If selected for seated tickets, tickets will be assigned based on Ten Club seniority within the purchased price level."

Note how both keep referencing your "request" in the singular. Nothing about individual shows. Both are clear that you are "committing to purchase the ticket(s) should your request be fulfilled". I'm not the smartest person in the world, but it seems pretty clear to me that they selected members at random and fulfilled their entire requests (as possible). Thus, some people going x-for-x and others going 0-for-x. Still random, just not drawn the way we expected. Not the "best" system, but still a valid way to perform the lottery.

coery

There are people who don't want to or can't stand for hours in the pit. How much did not selecting GA/P1 lessen the chances for those who only selected P1? Next time they might consider having three separate and clearly definable options - GA, P1, P2 - and not mix any types together into one category. People could still select as many as they want to increase their chances of being in the building but it wouldn't penalize those who have reasons for not wanting the pit.