Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues

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Comments

  • Posts: 7,913
    PJNB said:
    You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

    I’m curious if Mr. David is willing to give the lottery wiki page a try, or are we going to be discussing next whether or not the PJ ticket lottery is not a lottery.
  • Were equating getting 4 GA tickets to winning the state lottery now? 
    Mathematically...yes.  
  • PJNB said:
    You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 
    You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto. 
  • LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,364
    bootleg said:
    Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?
    "Yeah, it's called a lottery and it is completely reasonable to expect you would get the exact same seats for both shows. Thinking anything otherwise is just wrong on your part. It is statistically possible and to even question these results is asinine."

    -mookieblalock & BF25394 (probably)
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Posts: 7,913
    bootleg said:
    Here is what was close to the final odds in 2020 on getting GA/reserved
    Toronto: 32/99
    Ottawa: 56/99
    Quebec City: 79/99
    Hamilton: 40/99
    Baltimore: 14/65
    NYC: 9/57
    Nashville: 21/99
    St Louis: 22/99
    OKC: 63/99
    Denver: 21/99
    Glendale: 36/99
    San Diego: 34/99
    LA: 28/99; 26/99
    Oak: 30/99; 37/99

    Slightly different system since it allowed for priority, but could be used to get an idea at least.  And based on the results we know that this years odds would likely be even less because there were people getting shut out of Cali shows when before there was almost 100% chance of getting reserved tix.  There are more NE shows this yea but my guess is Baltimore,NYC,Philly GA prob still finished somewhere in the 8-10% chance of GA each range.


    Thanks for sharing. 9/57 seems very high (too good)  for NY from experience, reading the boards in the past and how some members claim to never have won msg in decades.
  • Posts: 4,940
    Wow, almost impossible 
    The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
    I gather speed from you fucking with me.
  • Posts: 13,890
    edited February 2024


    Thanks for sharing. 9/57 seems very high (too good)  for NY from experience, reading the boards in the past and how some members claim to never have won msg in decades.
    TM odds were fucked. Plenty of people lost out with 99% odds even those that was just a placeholder and should of said 100%. I remember people in 2020 defending ticketmaster saying all of those 99% were in fact real and that some people are bound to lose out. After all its just a lotto! 

    What made sense for back then was TM did odds for first priority alone. 
  • BF25394 said:
    The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.
    Yes I know how probabilities work. 
  • Posts: 4,940
    Yes I know how probabilities work. 
    But do you know how they work in the imperial system?
    I gather speed from you fucking with me.
  • Posts: 13,890
    Yes I know how probabilities work. 
    There always has to be that guy that says Ya but lol. 
  • Posts: 7,913




    Let’s go back to the zapruder film, eh the p1 and ga/p1 are two categories doubling our chances.

    If TM did the draw this way, It is completely wrong based on the ten club info page. If TM gave p1 and ga two separate chances to win p1, they did the draw wrong and they did not follow PJs rules



    Ten club rules,

    In most venues, Ten Club reserved seated tickets will be available in two price levels. You can request both tiers to increase your chance of getting tickets. 


    Both tiers specifically means two reserved seated price levels, p one and p two. Request BOTH tiers to increase your chances. There is no mention of standing tickets in the rules. Including the ga/p1 category would be three categories and would violate the use of the word BOTH.

  • LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,364
    Yes I know how probabilities work. 
    What is the probability that you really do? 😁
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • BF25394 said:
    But do you know how they work in the imperial system?
    Man I hate the imperial system, I've lived in the US for 25 years and I still hate it so much. 
  • What is the probability that you really do? 😁
    83.2%
  • Posts: 14,127
    You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto. 

    not even close, state lottery odds are much worse
  • Posts: 4,940
    Man I hate the imperial system, I've lived in the US for 25 years and I still hate it so much. 
    You'll come to love it, inch by inch.
    I gather speed from you fucking with me.
  • Get_Right said:

    not even close, state lottery odds are much worse
    I agree with that
  • I agree with that
    Of course you do. 
  • Of course you do. 
    Yes because it's factual
  • Yes because it's factual
    I’m beginning to doubt your background in applied mathematics.

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