Potential Ticketmaster Draw Issues

PJNB said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Merkin Baller said:

Well said @mpedone. 

I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it. 

I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows. 

I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either 

This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.

The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.

We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.

Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end. 

Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before. 

With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.

each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.

How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.

It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.

Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.

Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.

based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.

I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery 

How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account? 

Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.

That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch 

But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.

DING DING DING DING

You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here

Okay. whatever you say.

You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

PJNB said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Merkin Baller said:

Well said @mpedone. 

I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it. 

I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows. 

I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either 

This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.

The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.

We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.

Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end. 

Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before. 

With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.

each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.

How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.

It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.

Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.

Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.

based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.

I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery 

How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account? 

Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.

That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch 

But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.

DING DING DING DING

You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here

Okay. whatever you say.

You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

bootleg said:

Here is what was close to the final odds in 2020 on getting GA/reserved
Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 79/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Slightly different system since it allowed for priority, but could be used to get an idea at least.  And based on the results we know that this years odds would likely be even less because there were people getting shut out of Cali shows when before there was almost 100% chance of getting reserved tix.  There are more NE shows this yea but my guess is Baltimore,NYC,Philly GA prob still finished somewhere in the 8-10% chance of GA each range.

Lerxst1992 said:

bootleg said:

Here is what was close to the final odds in 2020 on getting GA/reserved
Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 79/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Slightly different system since it allowed for priority, but could be used to get an idea at least.  And based on the results we know that this years odds would likely be even less because there were people getting shut out of Cali shows when before there was almost 100% chance of getting reserved tix.  There are more NE shows this yea but my guess is Baltimore,NYC,Philly GA prob still finished somewhere in the 8-10% chance of GA each range.

Thanks for sharing. 9/57 seems very high (too good)  for NY from experience, reading the boards in the past and how some members claim to never have won msg in decades.

NewfieintheUSA said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Wow, almost impossible 

The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.

Yes I know how probabilities work. 

mookieblalock said:

SHZA said:

mookieblalock said:

SHZA said:

mpedone said:

JR86440 said:

PB11041 said:

Get_Right said:

I do not think we have seen more double GAs than not.  More people got shut out than people who got double GAs. I just think people need to accept the fact that if you select GA/P1 you might get shut out for northeast shows since those tickets are in the highest demand and are in the most popular markets. They should have applied the MSG rule to any city with two shows, especially in the northeast, and hopefully they will next time around. It is tough for TM and the band to agree to this as it slows down ticket sales.

It still makes no sense why picking GA or Reserved AND just Reserved increases odds. If you are good with GA or Reserved that should put you in bucket for both. 

I'm not sure it mattered. The wording from the Ten Club was that selecting multiple price tiers would increase your chances. GA and P1 were the same price tier, so selecting both "GA or P1" and "P1 only" shouldn't have made a difference.

And because it shouldn't have made a difference, it shouldn't have been possible to select both. That would have eliminated any confusion 

Except they explicitly told you it did make a difference. Not sure why people willingly ignored what they were told by the organization running the sale.

Go back and read it again. Show me where it says "checking all boxes increases your odds." Spoiler alert: it doesn't. It said "multiple seating preferences." P1 and P1 are the same preference, not different preferences.

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

bootleg said:

Here’s another oddity to throw into the mix.  I got the exact same seats for Seattle N1 and N2.  P2 level.  With all the combinations of fans who won at various levels what are the chances of that?

Wow, almost impossible 

The odds of drawing the same seats for two different shows are exactly the same as the odds of drawing one set of seats for one show and a specific set of different seats for another show. Almost impossible, yes, but given the large sample size we're dealing with here, it will happen to someone.

Yes I know how probabilities work. 

But do you know how they work in the imperial system?

mookieblalock said:

PJNB said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Merkin Baller said:

Well said @mpedone. 

I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it. 

I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows. 

I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either 

This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.

The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.

We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.

Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end. 

Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before. 

With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.

each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.

How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.

It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.

Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.

Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.

based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.

I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery 

How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account? 

Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.

That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch 

But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.

DING DING DING DING

You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here

Okay. whatever you say.

You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto. 

Get_Right said:

mookieblalock said:

PJNB said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Merkin Baller said:

Well said @mpedone. 

I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it. 

I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows. 

I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either 

This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.

The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.

We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.

Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end. 

Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before. 

With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.

each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.

How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.

It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.

Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.

Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.

based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.

I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery 

How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account? 

Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.

That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch 

But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.

DING DING DING DING

You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here

Okay. whatever you say.

You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto. 

not even close, state lottery odds are much worse

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Get_Right said:

mookieblalock said:

PJNB said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mookieblalock said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PB11041 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Merkin Baller said:

Well said @mpedone. 

I don't believe it was rigged in any way. I do think, if the band cared enough to spread the GA tickets around, they would / could implement a limit to 1 GA draw per member, but at this point, I don't think they're all that worried about it. 

I know I'm not. Congrats to the lucky ones, see you at the shows. 

I don't think it was rigged, as in intentional, but believe it wasn't truly random either 

This is what people like to do in life (even why we get an extremist blonde man in control) - take a reasonable comment and paint it as extreme, then attack the extreme position.

The draw for each show is supposed to be random. We know from last tours the NE show odds range from 7%GA to 30%. We know there are roughly 1000 GA tickets available to the club.

We can easily calculate with simple mathematics the expected number of winners to four shows in the NE corridor, ny, ph, Balt. I did and came up with the result of one expected winner to all these tough shows In less time than it takes me or you to type these comments the math can be done. Yet some have to attack with baseless accusations that we are claiming conspiracy. Lottery errors happen with PJ/TM. For fraks sake, we saw it last year.

Odds in the past did not take priority in mind either. So it should be a true number if done correctly with the current system. Also People might want to take a look at the number of people signing up in the last 3 years since NY and other states have transfer laws in place. It has skyrocketed and those 2016 odds numbers we saw are likely on the high end. 

Take into account that there is no willcall as well it just adds more names in the hat for more shows than there ever have been before. 

With no priority rankings, many of us expected the odds to dramatically decrease, especially in NY and Philly. Either there was a draw error, or the rules are different from expectations, or people are fibbing on results. Winning NY, Balt and Philly twice I calculated one expected winner, with very conservative estimates of odds and available tickets. Oh well, time to save up extra moolah to reward these ten c winners with a ton of my cash.

each individual show draw with the exception of MSG was totally unique and not dependent on the other draws, ergo somebody can go 2 for 2, 5 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 4, 3 for 7, 1 for 2.

How exactly are you rewarding ten c winners? with the exception of MSG & Wrigley, the dollars in the end all go to the same place, you either were paying directly to TicketMaster or indirectly via F2F.

It’s unfair to “ergo” standard mathematics.

Take 1000 ga winners, the historical odds of NE shows 7% to 30% and calculate the expected number of winners to multiple shows including 2 GA. I did the math in here yesterday and came to an expected winner result of…one fan.

Thinking one draw is completely independent of others is not consistent with how expected results and probability are calculated.

based on your logic, in a state lottery with five balls numbered one to fifty, you would have a two percent chance of winning that lotto.

I assure you your odds are closer to less than 0.01 percent . Same logic applies to PJ lottery 

How about the odds of someone getting GA to Philly x2 and Bostom x2 on the same account? 

Each show has independent odds, liking flipping a coin. Tails can come up 6 times in a row.

That's not how probabilities work!!! Yes they are independent events, but the odds of flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/64 if starting from scratch 

But the cohort of lottery entrants is tens of thousands of people. If 32,000 people entered the lottery and the distribution is random, then 500 people will end up with the 6-tails-in-a-row equivalent outcome.

DING DING DING DING

You guys are ignoring how unlikely some of these scenarios are. We are not talking about 1/64 odds here

Okay. whatever you say.

You are the one that came up with a scenario of 1/64 odds not him lol. Moving goal posts and others piling on is fun to watch. 

You think hitting GA x 4 has the same odds of winning the state lotto. 

not even close, state lottery odds are much worse

I agree with that

Of course you do.