Nate Silver 538

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

curmudgeoness said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

JB16057 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

Hatred goes both ways though. Take this site for example. There is so much hatred towards the GOP, Conservatives and Republicans and most of it is the same hysterics as what you see on FOX just in reverse. Sure this site doesn't get near the amount of attention but CNN, MSNBC and plenty of other major news outlets spew hatred all day long.

Something needs to change with the economy. Inflation is out of control right now and I don't see either side of the aisle doing anything about it.

there wasn't prior to trump. and even then, it was hatred for trump and trump only. then it started to creep into the GOP because of them being complicit and embracing trumpism to save their own political skin. 

I don't know how many people here actually hate all GOP, cons, republicans. But you damn sure can say you see a lot of all-encompassing hate for liberals, all over the place. Even in canada (as evidenced in the canadian politics thread). 

how often do you hear people say the phrase "what's wrong with the left is..." as opposed to the opposite? I'd say a helluva lot more. 

and no one on CNN or MSNBC, for all their faults, are encouraging people, for example, to go around and forcibly put masks on people's faces. that shit is all right wing nonsense. 

Let's not conflate disagreement, frustration, or even disgust, with hatred.

I disagree with many people, on the right and on the left. But I miss the "good old days" when it was possible to have a vigorous yet respectful debate. I miss the days when one could debate the "how," not the "what," e,g., "how to address climate change," vs. "is climate change a Chinese hoax?"

I am frustrated by the people who refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, and take basic steps to keep themselves and others safe. Do I hate them? Do I wish them misery and a painful death? Am I protesting in the streets, screaming for vengeance and violence against them? No. Mainly, I am just exhausted by them.

I am disgusted by certain loud voices in the media and in politics, who are willfully misleading their audiences, sowing hatred, fear, and lies, encouraging violence, and practicing hypocrisy writ large (Tucker Carlson, along with 90% of Fox News employees, is vaccinated). They are endangering others both directly and indirectly, encouraging the spread of the virus and slowing our recovery, all in the name of, what? Power? Ratings? Money? All of the above? They are reprehensible, despicable people, deserving of my disgust. Do I hate them? Do I giggle to myself, imagining sending them death threats and wishing violence upon them? No, I do not.

I can and do say with a clear conscience that disgust and shunning are proper, appropriate responses to people who are actively engaged in spreading lies and disease and rending the social fabric. That's not the same as hatred, and it is intellectually lazy and disingenuous to suggest that hatred and disgust are one and the same.

I don't send death threats to officials with whom I disagree. I don't invade public buildings, beat police officers, and shit on the floor. When I attend protests or demonstrations -- lawful, permitted ones -- my signs are family-friendly, and I don't have assault weapons strapped on my back. I don't salivate at the thought of widespread unrest, violence, or civil war.

PJ is a left-leaning band. Many, most?, of their followers have similar viewpoints. "I disagree with most people on here" =/= "So much hate"

very, very well said. 

I second this.

One of these days it would be nice to see someone of the opposing viewpoint make a similar post instead of drive-by insults or memes 

This would be nice. But any cogent arguments you would hope for aren't based in logic. Being aggrieved all the time is hard work, man, as is mistaking equality for oppression.

I try to make opposing arguments all the time, even if I don't necessarily believe in them.  My post about how the poverty rates in this country have actually gone down over the past century is an example.  There's very good arguments why the the gov't should not be in the business of creating wealth 'equity', rather removing barriers that inhibit class movement instead.  This is a very old school Republican idea. 

To the bold, you could also argue that they install barriers that inhibit class movement. Being ardently anti-union, as an example. Or pro "school choice" or favoring private school over public school. Slashing public funding for libraries, roads, bridges, anything really for the common good in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy.

What barriers to class movement have repubs removed? Since Reagan ("government is the problem")?

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

curmudgeoness said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

JB16057 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

Hatred goes both ways though. Take this site for example. There is so much hatred towards the GOP, Conservatives and Republicans and most of it is the same hysterics as what you see on FOX just in reverse. Sure this site doesn't get near the amount of attention but CNN, MSNBC and plenty of other major news outlets spew hatred all day long.

Something needs to change with the economy. Inflation is out of control right now and I don't see either side of the aisle doing anything about it.

there wasn't prior to trump. and even then, it was hatred for trump and trump only. then it started to creep into the GOP because of them being complicit and embracing trumpism to save their own political skin. 

I don't know how many people here actually hate all GOP, cons, republicans. But you damn sure can say you see a lot of all-encompassing hate for liberals, all over the place. Even in canada (as evidenced in the canadian politics thread). 

how often do you hear people say the phrase "what's wrong with the left is..." as opposed to the opposite? I'd say a helluva lot more. 

and no one on CNN or MSNBC, for all their faults, are encouraging people, for example, to go around and forcibly put masks on people's faces. that shit is all right wing nonsense. 

Let's not conflate disagreement, frustration, or even disgust, with hatred.

I disagree with many people, on the right and on the left. But I miss the "good old days" when it was possible to have a vigorous yet respectful debate. I miss the days when one could debate the "how," not the "what," e,g., "how to address climate change," vs. "is climate change a Chinese hoax?"

I am frustrated by the people who refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, and take basic steps to keep themselves and others safe. Do I hate them? Do I wish them misery and a painful death? Am I protesting in the streets, screaming for vengeance and violence against them? No. Mainly, I am just exhausted by them.

I am disgusted by certain loud voices in the media and in politics, who are willfully misleading their audiences, sowing hatred, fear, and lies, encouraging violence, and practicing hypocrisy writ large (Tucker Carlson, along with 90% of Fox News employees, is vaccinated). They are endangering others both directly and indirectly, encouraging the spread of the virus and slowing our recovery, all in the name of, what? Power? Ratings? Money? All of the above? They are reprehensible, despicable people, deserving of my disgust. Do I hate them? Do I giggle to myself, imagining sending them death threats and wishing violence upon them? No, I do not.

I can and do say with a clear conscience that disgust and shunning are proper, appropriate responses to people who are actively engaged in spreading lies and disease and rending the social fabric. That's not the same as hatred, and it is intellectually lazy and disingenuous to suggest that hatred and disgust are one and the same.

I don't send death threats to officials with whom I disagree. I don't invade public buildings, beat police officers, and shit on the floor. When I attend protests or demonstrations -- lawful, permitted ones -- my signs are family-friendly, and I don't have assault weapons strapped on my back. I don't salivate at the thought of widespread unrest, violence, or civil war.

PJ is a left-leaning band. Many, most?, of their followers have similar viewpoints. "I disagree with most people on here" =/= "So much hate"

very, very well said. 

I second this.

One of these days it would be nice to see someone of the opposing viewpoint make a similar post instead of drive-by insults or memes 

This would be nice. But any cogent arguments you would hope for aren't based in logic. Being aggrieved all the time is hard work, man, as is mistaking equality for oppression.

I try to make opposing arguments all the time, even if I don't necessarily believe in them.  My post about how the poverty rates in this country have actually gone down over the past century is an example.  There's very good arguments why the the gov't should not be in the business of creating wealth 'equity', rather removing barriers that inhibit class movement instead.  This is a very old school Republican idea. 

To the bold, you could also argue that they install barriers that inhibit class movement. Being ardently anti-union, as an example. Or pro "school choice" or favoring private school over public school. Slashing public funding for libraries, roads, bridges, anything really for the common good in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy.

What barriers to class movement have repubs removed? Since Reagan ("government is the problem")?

Republicans have done nothing since the 80's, I agree.  That's why I said my ideas were old school Republican. 

Shame, ain't it?

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

curmudgeoness said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

JB16057 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2. 

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you.  But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer. 

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong.  When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation.  Today, too many people have too much to lose.  I don't see that as a risk.  The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population.  And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost. 

the gop is using covid to try to crash the economy. it has maintained itself under biden to this point, but you keep prolonging a pandemic and the economy is going to suffer. that is the gop plan. keep the pandemic going to slow down business through the 2022 election. then blame biden to make the dems lose in 2024.

I think the fed does too good of a job manipulating the money supply through quantitative easing and other monetary policy that it can effectively cushion falls and juice starts with cheap, plentiful money.  Maybe you all see me as too much of an optimist, but we have too many tools to manage the economy.  Many of the pitfalls in 2008 have been closed.  They are not all gone and certainly there will be bear markets, but not compared to the runaway inflation and unemployment ala Germany in the 20's or the brutal and archaic peasant economy of Russia in the early 20th century. I just don't see it. 

this is all true, but you are forgetting one thing. hatred goes a long way.

these people hate liberals more than they love their own family and their country. 

you keep telling someone how bad things are, ie fox news to their viewers every night, sooner or later more and more and more will believe that message, and the more who believe, the more will act on it. see jan 6.

Hatred goes both ways though. Take this site for example. There is so much hatred towards the GOP, Conservatives and Republicans and most of it is the same hysterics as what you see on FOX just in reverse. Sure this site doesn't get near the amount of attention but CNN, MSNBC and plenty of other major news outlets spew hatred all day long.

Something needs to change with the economy. Inflation is out of control right now and I don't see either side of the aisle doing anything about it.

there wasn't prior to trump. and even then, it was hatred for trump and trump only. then it started to creep into the GOP because of them being complicit and embracing trumpism to save their own political skin. 

I don't know how many people here actually hate all GOP, cons, republicans. But you damn sure can say you see a lot of all-encompassing hate for liberals, all over the place. Even in canada (as evidenced in the canadian politics thread). 

how often do you hear people say the phrase "what's wrong with the left is..." as opposed to the opposite? I'd say a helluva lot more. 

and no one on CNN or MSNBC, for all their faults, are encouraging people, for example, to go around and forcibly put masks on people's faces. that shit is all right wing nonsense. 

Let's not conflate disagreement, frustration, or even disgust, with hatred.

I disagree with many people, on the right and on the left. But I miss the "good old days" when it was possible to have a vigorous yet respectful debate. I miss the days when one could debate the "how," not the "what," e,g., "how to address climate change," vs. "is climate change a Chinese hoax?"

I am frustrated by the people who refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, and take basic steps to keep themselves and others safe. Do I hate them? Do I wish them misery and a painful death? Am I protesting in the streets, screaming for vengeance and violence against them? No. Mainly, I am just exhausted by them.

I am disgusted by certain loud voices in the media and in politics, who are willfully misleading their audiences, sowing hatred, fear, and lies, encouraging violence, and practicing hypocrisy writ large (Tucker Carlson, along with 90% of Fox News employees, is vaccinated). They are endangering others both directly and indirectly, encouraging the spread of the virus and slowing our recovery, all in the name of, what? Power? Ratings? Money? All of the above? They are reprehensible, despicable people, deserving of my disgust. Do I hate them? Do I giggle to myself, imagining sending them death threats and wishing violence upon them? No, I do not.

I can and do say with a clear conscience that disgust and shunning are proper, appropriate responses to people who are actively engaged in spreading lies and disease and rending the social fabric. That's not the same as hatred, and it is intellectually lazy and disingenuous to suggest that hatred and disgust are one and the same.

I don't send death threats to officials with whom I disagree. I don't invade public buildings, beat police officers, and shit on the floor. When I attend protests or demonstrations -- lawful, permitted ones -- my signs are family-friendly, and I don't have assault weapons strapped on my back. I don't salivate at the thought of widespread unrest, violence, or civil war.

PJ is a left-leaning band. Many, most?, of their followers have similar viewpoints. "I disagree with most people on here" =/= "So much hate"

very, very well said. 

I second this.

One of these days it would be nice to see someone of the opposing viewpoint make a similar post instead of drive-by insults or memes 

This would be nice. But any cogent arguments you would hope for aren't based in logic. Being aggrieved all the time is hard work, man, as is mistaking equality for oppression.

I try to make opposing arguments all the time, even if I don't necessarily believe in them.  My post about how the poverty rates in this country have actually gone down over the past century is an example.  There's very good arguments why the the gov't should not be in the business of creating wealth 'equity', rather removing barriers that inhibit class movement instead.  This is a very old school Republican idea. 

To the bold, you could also argue that they install barriers that inhibit class movement. Being ardently anti-union, as an example. Or pro "school choice" or favoring private school over public school. Slashing public funding for libraries, roads, bridges, anything really for the common good in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy.

What barriers to class movement have repubs removed? Since Reagan ("government is the problem")?

Republicans have done nothing since the 80's, I agree.  That's why I said my ideas were old school Republican. 

Shame, ain't it?

Yes.  I want fully functioning parties.  We have one today.  The other simply cannot govern. 

Or formulate policy and do anything other than be angry all the time. And "fix" elections.

Jearlpam0925 said:

Haha, try the R's go beyond the 80's - or maybe you mean the 1880's. I stand by the fact that everything that is absolutely toxic today in politics - and especially in the GOP - goes back to Nixon and Roger Ailes. Reagan was garbage and was only the beginning of what it is today. If you really wanted to you could draw a line from Nixon-->Reagan-->Bush1&2-->Trump-->Today. They're not mutually exclusive.

Make no mistake, I am not some Dem hack. The national Democratic Party is feckless. Binary party systems do not work. The system as it's set up now is shit. I have no choice but to work within the Dem Party to make legitimate change because there is no other reasonable way, especially in my state (PA) and more especially in my city (Philly).

Give me one election a year (RCV, Approval voting, etc) and campaign finance reform (Corporations are not people). Elections should be based on the opposite of a sports team - it's more about the name on the back of the jersey than the team name on the front.

JB16057 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

JB16057 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

What was that about both sides spewing hate again? Can anyone give a dem equivalent of the below? Anyone? I won’t hold my breath for the repub condemnation. “Great people on both sides,” and all. I’m paywalled out but the headline says it all.

There are good people on both sides. Not every Republican or person that voted for Donald Trump stand for what the Proud Boys believe.

Based on everything that’s happened since POOTWH came down the escalator, I haven’t seen any “good” repubs. In fact, several million more deplorables voted for him in 2020 and thus far are continuing to do POOTWH’s bidding, even doubling and tripling down so enamored are they. If they’re not disavowing that POS, they’re silently supporting him and his agenda.

Generalizing a group of people is bigotry. Bigotry is hate.