Sea. Hear. Now Festival 2020 Update

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Comments

  • Deep South Philly Posts: 17,530
    edited March 2021
    JH6056 said:
    Ok, then we undertand each other. I was more reacting to your comments about how they couldn't change the rules about admission at this point.  They CAN change the rules in the name of public health & safety and circumstances that did not exist at the time tickets went onsale.  That was my only point.  The rest... we're on the same page.

    And while we're all weighing in, I'm guessing that one thing that may be possible since it's a BEACH, although getting permits will no doubt add to the festival's costs & therefore reduce profits, is they can expand the footprint of the festival and organize "sections" that have fewer people than would naturally gather in the whole big general GA in front of a stage.  The fact that it's not only outside but on the shore so from wind the air is circulating much better, that all really makes it much more likely that between whatever the vaccination rate of the audience is, and maybe struturally building in areas in front of stages that mean people are just not as crowded and can spread out in their area more... or opt to be at the back of the area and still be able to see well... that might make 100% capacity a lot more doable.

    I'm a major fan of the Newport Folk Festival and that footprint option just isn't the same for them, just like it's not really the same in any meaningful way for like Governor's Ball.  And Coachella, dang, they already went from 80,000 to 100,000 WITHOUT expanding their footprint, and now with a little bigger expansion and 2 weekends they still expanded the daily capacity even bigger than 100,000 I think.  Stuff of nightmares even when it's not a pandemic LOL!

    So my guess is SHN has a good chance of going through, mainly because lots of fresh air and spacing people out, plus maybe an incentive for those who show up with evidence of vaccines/negative recent PCRs... those could really make it work while really cutting down on transmission even if some people did show up with Covid or a more transmissible variant.

    [Edited to add:] I did just realize though that the cost of STAFFING those sections and monitoring #s to keep it at it's limit... that might cost so much it's untenable.  Also what happens when the people who would usually camp out at the barricade would lose their spots (to be fair to others who want to be in th efront sections) and also where would people safely "wait" if they wanted into the closer sections?  Might be hard to do well but again, for health/safety and to make the difference between happening or not, it might be an option somehow.
    I was thinking about this, too - spreading the footprint. Though I don't think that'll matter because everyone just crams to the front anyway. If anything, to make it work they'll probably have to tier portions off depending on one's comfort. And they'd have to put an additional pricing/purchase/RSVP system into play for that. But, again, everything we're talking about is involving so many what-ifs.

    So, now we're talking vax proof documents, negative test docs, enlarging the footprint, tiering the footpring, offering refunds, the increase costs, etc. Threading the needle on all of this just seems improbable. 

    Yeah I'm a big fan of our local Philly Folk Fest event and that's not happening this year (August) because of the costs and logistics involved.

    As an extra aside - Mike has Crohn's right? I have to think someone with higher comorbidity risks isn't that enthusiastic without every single precaution and logistic being worked out.
  • Posts: 517
    Get_Right said:
    I agree with this. If there is a chance that holding the event would endanger their fans, it will not happen. Good news is that there is still a bit of time before they have to make a decision.
    It’s not even their decision to make. Only if and when the state clears the show would they have a decision to make. 
  • Posts: 517
    JH6056 said:
    Ok, then we undertand each other. I was more reacting to your comments about how they couldn't change the rules about admission at this point.  They CAN change the rules in the name of public health & safety and circumstances that did not exist at the time tickets went onsale.  That was my only point.  The rest... we're on the same page.

    And while we're all weighing in, I'm guessing that one thing that may be possible since it's a BEACH, although getting permits will no doubt add to the festival's costs & therefore reduce profits, is they can expand the footprint of the festival and organize "sections" that have fewer people than would naturally gather in the whole big general GA in front of a stage.  The fact that it's not only outside but on the shore so from wind the air is circulating much better, that all really makes it much more likely that between whatever the vaccination rate of the audience is, and maybe struturally building in areas in front of stages that mean people are just not as crowded and can spread out in their area more... or opt to be at the back of the area and still be able to see well... that might make 100% capacity a lot more doable.

    I'm a major fan of the Newport Folk Festival and that footprint option just isn't the same for them, just like it's not really the same in any meaningful way for like Governor's Ball.  And Coachella, dang, they already went from 80,000 to 100,000 WITHOUT expanding their footprint, and now with a little bigger expansion and 2 weekends they still expanded the daily capacity even bigger than 100,000 I think.  Stuff of nightmares even when it's not a pandemic LOL!

    So my guess is SHN has a good chance of going through, mainly because lots of fresh air and spacing people out, plus maybe an incentive for those who show up with evidence of vaccines/negative recent PCRs... those could really make it work while really cutting down on transmission even if some people did show up with Covid or a more transmissible variant.

    [Edited to add:] I did just realize though that the cost of STAFFING those sections and monitoring #s to keep it at it's limit... that might cost so much it's untenable.  Also what happens when the people who would usually camp out at the barricade would lose their spots (to be fair to others who want to be in th efront sections) and also where would people safely "wait" if they wanted into the closer sections?  Might be hard to do well but again, for health/safety and to make the difference between happening or not, it might be an option somehow.
    None of this is actually an option.
  • Posts: 2,437
    I was thinking about this, too - spreading the footprint. Though I don't think that'll matter because everyone just crams to the front anyway. If anything, to make it work they'll probably have to tier portions off depending on one's comfort. And they'd have to put an additional pricing/purchase/RSVP system into play for that. But, again, everything we're talking about is involving so many what-ifs.

    So, now we're talking vax proof documents, negative test docs, enlarging the footprint, tiering the footpring, offering refunds, the increase costs, etc. Threading the needle on all of this just seems improbable. 

    Yeah I'm a big fan of our local Philly Folk Fest event and that's not happening this year (August) because of the costs and logistics involved.

    As an extra aside - Mike has Crohn's right? I have to think someone with higher comorbidity risks isn't that enthusiastic without every single precaution and logistic being worked out.
    I understand why "threading the needle on all of this just seems improbable" is how you see it.  All I can say is, in a "normal" year, the # of logistics and unexpected challenges and problems that need to be solved would probably give a regular person lifelong anxiety.  Some festivals do it better than others, but a lot of festivals wouldn't even happen if the organizers didn't have stunning ability to turn "the improbable" into "the done".  So I don't let the fact that I can't wrap my mind about it make me sure those who had to think through a zillion solutions to even put the festival on can't figure it out...;) 

    Maybe they can't - maybe there are too many insurmountable factors. But if anyone can, I bet they can.
  • Deep South Philly Posts: 17,530
    Assuming you all just saw the email/announcement?

    Now I gotta work on talking to this AirBnB lady....
  • Posts: 13,890
    Assuming you all just saw the email/announcement?

    Now I gotta work on talking to this AirBnB lady....
    Euro or is there another one? I am already overwhelmed with the Euro news lol. 
  • Posts: 14,126
    Luckytwn1 said:
    It’s not even their decision to make. Only if and when the state clears the show would they have a decision to make. 
    True.  Id guess there may still be decision after the state says yes or no.

  • Posts: 485
    What is going to change in "2022" or whatever mythical date vs this Fall?

    By May/June everyone who wants the vaccine will have access to it. And every piece of research we have shows that the vaccine at best prevents infection completely and at worse limits the severity of the virus in a major way. Anecdotally saw this in my family as my 70 y/o father contracted COVID 2 weeks after his first shot...thankfully only ended up having a head cold for a week. 

    So with a large gathering, yes you are potentially talking about cases - but among the vaccinated they have an extremely high probability of being non-severe. Cases are only a relevant metric if you are under the delusion of the belief that this virus is going to somehow be eradicated. We can't self-engineer our own dystopia out of ignorance and fear...it's time to start taking calculated risks. 
  • Deep South Philly Posts: 17,530
    A dystopia would be going on like life is normal while people are still getting sick.

    This makes sense, too, because now we get an entire winter cycle with the vax pumping through peoples veins and see what that looks like. "Every piece of research" is still new. What's needed now is time. Every result of research we've seen so far is promising but it's no where near enough yet.
  • Posts: 2,437
    edited March 2021
    A dystopia would be going on like life is normal while people are still getting sick.

    This makes sense, too, because now we get an entire winter cycle with the vax pumping through peoples veins and see what that looks like. "Every piece of research" is still new. What's needed now is time. Every result of research we've seen so far is promising but it's no where near enough yet.
    Agreed. And re: the post you're responding to, it's one thing to "take calcuated risks" only on your own behalf or your family's.  It's another thing ENTIRELY to calculate risk for 10s of thousands of people and know your judgement might either prevent or make possible infections that otherwise would not have occurred.

    What will change by 2022?  We'll either have true herd immunity and also know more about other prevention and other treatment... OR we'll have actually largely gotten the virus under control.  Given the timeline and evolution of the virus and our response so far (and of course acknowledging how much time we lost, damage was done, and how much WORSE it spread because of horrible national leadership), it's very very likely one or the other of those 2 scenarios will have happened.

    And either of those is a FAR BETTER time to tour the venues you already sold out.  So that's what will be different, and it's a big dang difference.
  • Posts: 485
    A dystopia would be going on like life is normal while people are still getting sick.

    This makes sense, too, because now we get an entire winter cycle with the vax pumping through peoples veins and see what that looks like. "Every piece of research" is still new. What's needed now is time. Every result of research we've seen so far is promising but it's no where near enough yet.
    I mean, so your position is basically that we need to see 6+ months more of research on the vaccines? 

    And are simultaneously ok with them being rolled out at scale as a live experiment on millions of people?

    I guess I am choosing to believe that thousands of researchers and health officials wouldn’t be rolling this out at scale if they thought there was any risk of further complications. 
  • Deep South Philly Posts: 17,530
    Haha, so you want to selectively choose what you want (I'll let the back handed  "delusional" strikethrough comment slide), yes? Somehow you're contradicting yourself by saying we should move on and trust the research, yet somehow insinuate this "live experiment on millions of people" as if you're sceptical of the whole thing? You can't trust the research at the same time being skeptical of the "experiment".

    It's almost like this isn't about the vaccine at all for you then right? Of course more research is needed. What we know about the vax is it is almost 100% in reducing severe illness and death. That's what we know. The cost benefit analysis is you take the shot so you don't get really sick and not die with the limited research we so far have on a novel coronavirus as opposed to not taking it and letting it run rampant. That's the tradeoff. Not go back to the way things were. Those same public health officials are not saying to go back to normal or take "calculated risks". They're, in fact, still telling everyone to practice social distancing in addition to getting vaxed.

    Of course, this thing isn't going to be totally eradicated. It will be a yearly booster shot. That doesn't change the fact that we shouldn't be jumping the gun because you've been skeptical of a lightning quick vax rollout all along.
  • Posts: 15,958
    My fingers are crossed it takes place in September.  But a lot of things have to go right.  I’m fine with it being postponed if the band commits to 2022 and I see no reason why they wouldn’t.  
    1996: Randall's Island 2  1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2  2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel  2005: Atlantic City 1  2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 (#25) | Newark (EV)  2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4  2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2  2011: Toronto 1  2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore  2015: Central Park  2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD)  2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF)  2020: MSG | Asbury Park  2021: Asbury Park  2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville  2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore  2025: Raleigh


  • Posts: 14,126
    No harm in delaying rock concerts. Better safe than sorry. It's not that complicated.
  • this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,812
    Get_Right said:
    No harm in delaying rock concerts. Better safe than sorry. It's not that complicated.

    Yep
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Orlando, FL Posts: 1,451
    Get_Right said:
    No harm in delaying rock concerts. Better safe than sorry. It's not that complicated.
    There is harm to those who earn a living in the concert industry, workers and vendors that support the events and venues for large scale events. There is a mental health issue as well. 
    4.17.94 Paramount 9.28.96 Randall's Island 8.25.00 Jones Beach 4.28.03 Spectrum 7.5.03 Camden 7.6.03 Camden 07.08.03 MSG 07.09.03 MSG 7.12.03 Hershey 7.14.03 Holmdel 6.12.08 Tampa 10.19.13 Brooklyn 4.11.16 Tampa 5.1.16 MSG 5.2.16 MSG 8.7.16 Fenway 9.2.18 Fenway 9.4.18 Fenway 9.11.22 MSG 9.16.22 Nashville 9.18.23 Austin 9.19.23 Austin 9.3.24 MSG 9.4.24 MSG Fenway 9.15.24 Fenway 9.17.24 Hollywood 4.24.25 Nashville 5.6.25 Nashville 5.8.25
  • Posts: 13,890
    edited March 2021
    CO278952 said:
    There is harm to those who earn a living in the concert industry, workers and vendors that support the events and venues for large scale events. There is a mental health issue as well. 
    Exactly. One thing I have noticed about this pandemic is people (myself included) having tunnel vision with regards to their acceptance of the lockdown measures and restrictions that are in place.  No one is asking to do anything unsafe here as far as I can see. If you are older and have seen plenty of shows and might catch one or two during a new album cycle of course you are going to be ok with delaying another year or two. Someone like me that wants to see 14 plus shows next year might think differently than you do and thats ok! 
  • Posts: 2,437
    CO278952 said:
    There is harm to those who earn a living in the concert industry, workers and vendors that support the events and venues for large scale events. There is a mental health issue as well. 
    And your point is EXACTLY why when we DO go back to live shows, we sure as hell better do it to the best and safest of our ability.  You think the impact on the live show industry hurts now? Do you understand how much longer this will be drawn out if we half-ass it at all and rush getting back to each level of live music?  It takes one poorly-managed re-opening of live shows to send a chill through the industry and disrupt finding "the new normal" for live music in the US.

    So what you say is true, and it's been brutal.  AND... rushing a return could extend it even longer, so please keep that in mind.

    Not to open up an unrelated can of worms but just look at school reopenings nationwide for clues about how disruptive doing it badly to start can be to the goal of doing it everywhere. The differences between the districts that opened with strict rules, ENFORCED THOSE RULES, and did contact tracing of cohorts of students, vs. those who rushed to reopen, had outbreaks, couldn't contact trace, and had to yo-yo back and forth open, not open, and more importantly LOSE A TON OF GREAT TEACHERS (some to death by Covid) because schools were letting pressure to open make decisions instead of what was best for students and teachers.  And NO I was not against reopening school altogether.  I just worked in education for years and understand the difference in HOW you open.
  • Posts: 14,126
    CO278952 said:
    There is harm to those who earn a living in the concert industry, workers and vendors that support the events and venues for large scale events. There is a mental health issue as well. 
    I suppose that is true. But it does not change my position, there is no need take chances by holding large gatherings right now.
  • Deep South Philly Posts: 17,530
    JH6056 said:
    And your point is EXACTLY why when we DO go back to live shows, we sure as hell better do it to the best and safest of our ability.  You think the impact on the live show industry hurts now? Do you understand how much longer this will be drawn out if we half-ass it at all and rush getting back to each level of live music?  It takes one poorly-managed re-opening of live shows to send a chill through the industry and disrupt finding "the new normal" for live music in the US.

    So what you say is true, and it's been brutal.  AND... rushing a return could extend it even longer, so please keep that in mind.

    Not to open up an unrelated can of worms but just look at school reopenings nationwide for clues about how disruptive doing it badly to start can be to the goal of doing it everywhere. The differences between the districts that opened with strict rules, ENFORCED THOSE RULES, and did contact tracing of cohorts of students, vs. those who rushed to reopen, had outbreaks, couldn't contact trace, and had to yo-yo back and forth open, not open, and more importantly LOSE A TON OF GREAT TEACHERS (some to death by Covid) because schools were letting pressure to open make decisions instead of what was best for students and teachers.  And NO I was not against reopening school altogether.  I just worked in education for years and understand the difference in HOW you open.
    Oooooohhh, haha, can of worms opened in indeed. Wife is a teacher, it's crazy. I bet you could find a lot of correlation in here between those who want these shows started yesterday damnit and the same people who want their kids and teachers back in school yesterday damnit.

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