No question. With all that said, people like to think we're already out of this when that is no where near the case. And in light of all that good news, numbers are trending back up again.
We are getting out of it
I appreciate the sentiment.. But we are not out of it. And getting out of it doesn't mean going back to exactly the way things were before. Numbers are ticking up right now and you need herd immunity at a certain threshold to be "out of it."
I am saying we are getting out of it. Not that we are out of it yet. Once everyone who wants one has been vaccinated it’s time to move on.
I mean that would be cool if that's how this all works, but unfortunately it's not. There's no "moving on". I mean, evidently, we will, because of course we're collectively too fucking stupid to learn anything from this. Just wake up, I'm vaxed, boop boop back to normal.
Once we reach herd immunity then we can, sorta, maybe, "move on". Not when everyone who wanted a shot gets one - if that number is like 40%, 50%, 60% (I don't know, pick a number that's below herd immunity) of the population then we're most definitely not out of it.
No question. With all that said, people like to think we're already out of this when that is no where near the case. And in light of all that good news, numbers are trending back up again.
We are getting out of it
I appreciate the sentiment.. But we are not out of it. And getting out of it doesn't mean going back to exactly the way things were before. Numbers are ticking up right now and you need herd immunity at a certain threshold to be "out of it."
I am saying we are getting out of it. Not that we are out of it yet. Once everyone who wants one has been vaccinated it’s time to move on.
I mean that would be cool if that's how this all works, but unfortunately it's not. There's no "moving on". I mean, evidently, we will, because of course we're collectively too fucking stupid to learn anything from this. Just wake up, I'm vaxed, boop boop back to normal.
Once we reach herd immunity then we can, sorta, maybe, "move on". Not when everyone who wanted a shot gets one - if that number is like 40%, 50%, 60% (I don't know, pick a number that's below herd immunity) of the population then we're most definitely not out of it.
Why is a positive attitude so triggering to you?
Haha.
0
Options
on2legs
Standing in the Jersey rain… Posts: 14,419
No question. With all that said, people like to think we're already out of this when that is no where near the case. And in light of all that good news, numbers are trending back up again.
We are getting out of it
I appreciate the sentiment.. But we are not out of it. And getting out of it doesn't mean going back to exactly the way things were before. Numbers are ticking up right now and you need herd immunity at a certain threshold to be "out of it."
I am saying we are getting out of it. Not that we are out of it yet. Once everyone who wants one has been vaccinated it’s time to move on.
I mean that would be cool if that's how this all works, but unfortunately it's not. There's no "moving on". I mean, evidently, we will, because of course we're collectively too fucking stupid to learn anything from this. Just wake up, I'm vaxed, boop boop back to normal.
Once we reach herd immunity then we can, sorta, maybe, "move on". Not when everyone who wanted a shot gets one - if that number is like 40%, 50%, 60% (I don't know, pick a number that's below herd immunity) of the population then we're most definitely not out of it.
Why is a positive attitude so triggering to you?
Haha.
But seriously. You respond with an argument to every positive post. Why?
1996: Randall's Island 2 1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2 2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel 2005: Atlantic City 1 2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Newark (EV) 2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4 2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2 2011: Toronto 1 2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore 2015: Central Park 2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD) 2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF) 2020: MSG | Asbury Park2021: Asbury Park 2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville 2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
The one thing people keep saying is America, America, America. Remember this is a band that has fans that travel from all around the world. I’m not sure if this is a band that will say, sorry you must be a resident of the USA to attend. Something to consider
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2
EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
The one thing people keep saying is America, America, America. Remember this is a band that has fans that travel from all around the world. I’m not sure if this is a band that will say, sorry you must be a resident of the USA to attend. Something to consider
Absolutely. And not to keep sticking to the jingoistic theme, but it's not like even in America can you keep someone out from another state (build the wall(s)! build the wall(s)! jk jk).
In no way am I rooting for a cancellation, but given how things are at this time - and given how this band can be nuanced and considerate in their thinking - I just don't see them deciding to go through with it. If anything I think I'd be super disappointed in them, all things considered. Seems like the realistic outcome is they either postpone indefinitely or refund everyone their money.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
I bought tickets to see the devils/rangers and have to show proof of vaccination to get in.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
I bought tickets to see the devils/rangers and have to show proof of vaccination to get in.
When did you buy tickets?
It's not like public events aren't going on. It's all about expectations. I'm a Phillies season ticket holder, for example, they took my money from 2020 and put it towards 2021. Now, there's a capacity limit (social distancing protocol) and they're offering refunds or defer your money toward a later time. I don't think either of these can be done for SHN. Only thing I can think of is they give people the option of a refund.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
I bought tickets to see the devils/rangers and have to show proof of vaccination to get in.
When did you buy tickets?
It's not like public events aren't going on. It's all about expectations. I'm a Phillies season ticket holder, for example, they took my money from 2020 and put it towards 2021. Now, there's a capacity limit (social distancing protocol) and they're offering refunds or defer your money toward a later time. I don't think either of these can be done for SHN. Only thing I can think of is they give people the option of a refund.
Sports tickets are a totally different animal for the reasons you cite. I’m a Dodgers season ticket holder and I got 7 games for April/May. Other fans got a different 7 games, etc. We had groups A-D to choose from. Obviously Sea Hear Now is a one time event and there is no way to spread out the tickets.
0
Options
on2legs
Standing in the Jersey rain… Posts: 14,419
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
If you offer refunds to those who can't meet the new requirements, you can ABSOLUTELY change the rules about the capacity, the terms of admission, ALL of it.
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
If you offer refunds to those who can't meet the new requirements, you can ABSOLUTELY change the rules about the capacity, the terms of admission, ALL of it.
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
Correct - there are millions of logistics involved to make this all work. Put it all together and it just doesn't seem realistic of happening because of everything you just mentioned.
I saw Danny Clinch had a quote saying something like (paraphrasing) "if we get 100% capacity and approval then it's happening." But in the case of refunds getting back to 100% capacity (I'm assuming he means from his original number) becomes harder to do.
This band unknowingly had 9 people die in front of them in a trampling incident. I don't think they'd be comfortable going into a show (knowingly) with the possibility of losing one person based on a bunch of "If's" that need to line up perfectly.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
If you offer refunds to those who can't meet the new requirements, you can ABSOLUTELY change the rules about the capacity, the terms of admission, ALL of it.
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
Correct - there are millions of logistics involved to make this all work. Put it all together and it just doesn't seem realistic of happening because of everything you just mentioned.
I saw Danny Clinch had a quote saying something like (paraphrasing) "if we get 100% capacity and approval then it's happening." But in the case of refunds getting back to 100% capacity (I'm assuming he means from his original number) becomes harder to do.
This band unknowingly had 9 people die in front of them in a trampling incident. I don't think they'd be comfortable going into a show (knowingly) with the possibility of losing one person based on a bunch of "If's" that need to line up perfectly.
I agree if death of attendees with any greater probability than being struck by lightning is a risk they won’t do it, but I also believe the ability of the vaccines to prevent death and serious illness, or not, will be well understood by the relevant time to decide about the show.
PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2
EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
If you offer refunds to those who can't meet the new requirements, you can ABSOLUTELY change the rules about the capacity, the terms of admission, ALL of it.
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
Correct - there are millions of logistics involved to make this all work. Put it all together and it just doesn't seem realistic of happening because of everything you just mentioned.
I saw Danny Clinch had a quote saying something like (paraphrasing) "if we get 100% capacity and approval then it's happening." But in the case of refunds getting back to 100% capacity (I'm assuming he means from his original number) becomes harder to do.
This band unknowingly had 9 people die in front of them in a trampling incident. I don't think they'd be comfortable going into a show (knowingly) with the possibility of losing one person based on a bunch of "If's" that need to line up perfectly.
Ok, then we undertand each other. I was more reacting to your comments about how they couldn't change the rules about admission at this point. They CAN change the rules in the name of public health & safety and circumstances that did not exist at the time tickets went onsale. That was my only point. The rest... we're on the same page.
And while we're all weighing in, I'm guessing that one thing that may be possible since it's a BEACH, although getting permits will no doubt add to the festival's costs & therefore reduce profits, is they can expand the footprint of the festival and organize "sections" that have fewer people than would naturally gather in the whole big general GA in front of a stage. The fact that it's not only outside but on the shore so from wind the air is circulating much better, that all really makes it much more likely that between whatever the vaccination rate of the audience is, and maybe struturally building in areas in front of stages that mean people are just not as crowded and can spread out in their area more... or opt to be at the back of the area and still be able to see well... that might make 100% capacity a lot more doable.
I'm a major fan of the Newport Folk Festival and that footprint option just isn't the same for them, just like it's not really the same in any meaningful way for like Governor's Ball. And Coachella, dang, they already went from 80,000 to 100,000 WITHOUT expanding their footprint, and now with a little bigger expansion and 2 weekends they still expanded the daily capacity even bigger than 100,000 I think. Stuff of nightmares even when it's not a pandemic LOL!
So my guess is SHN has a good chance of going through, mainly because lots of fresh air and spacing people out, plus maybe an incentive for those who show up with evidence of vaccines/negative recent PCRs... those could really make it work while really cutting down on transmission even if some people did show up with Covid or a more transmissible variant.
[Edited to add:] I did just realize though that the cost of STAFFING those sections and monitoring #s to keep it at it's limit... that might cost so much it's untenable. Also what happens when the people who would usually camp out at the barricade would lose their spots (to be fair to others who want to be in th efront sections) and also where would people safely "wait" if they wanted into the closer sections? Might be hard to do well but again, for health/safety and to make the difference between happening or not, it might be an option somehow.
The one thing people keep saying is America, America, America. Remember this is a band that has fans that travel from all around the world. I’m not sure if this is a band that will say, sorry you must be a resident of the USA to attend. Something to consider
Absolutely. And not to keep sticking to the jingoistic theme, but it's not like even in America can you keep someone out from another state (build the wall(s)! build the wall(s)! jk jk).
In no way am I rooting for a cancellation, but given how things are at this time - and given how this band can be nuanced and considerate in their thinking - I just don't see them deciding to go through with it. If anything I think I'd be super disappointed in them, all things considered. Seems like the realistic outcome is they either postpone indefinitely or refund everyone their money.
I agree with this. If there is a chance that holding the event would endanger their fans, it will not happen. Good news is that there is still a bit of time before they have to make a decision.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
If you offer refunds to those who can't meet the new requirements, you can ABSOLUTELY change the rules about the capacity, the terms of admission, ALL of it.
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
Correct - there are millions of logistics involved to make this all work. Put it all together and it just doesn't seem realistic of happening because of everything you just mentioned.
I saw Danny Clinch had a quote saying something like (paraphrasing) "if we get 100% capacity and approval then it's happening." But in the case of refunds getting back to 100% capacity (I'm assuming he means from his original number) becomes harder to do.
This band unknowingly had 9 people die in front of them in a trampling incident. I don't think they'd be comfortable going into a show (knowingly) with the possibility of losing one person based on a bunch of "If's" that need to line up perfectly.
Ok, then we undertand each other. I was more reacting to your comments about how they couldn't change the rules about admission at this point. They CAN change the rules in the name of public health & safety and circumstances that did not exist at the time tickets went onsale. That was my only point. The rest... we're on the same page.
And while we're all weighing in, I'm guessing that one thing that may be possible since it's a BEACH, although getting permits will no doubt add to the festival's costs & therefore reduce profits, is they can expand the footprint of the festival and organize "sections" that have fewer people than would naturally gather in the whole big general GA in front of a stage. The fact that it's not only outside but on the shore so from wind the air is circulating much better, that all really makes it much more likely that between whatever the vaccination rate of the audience is, and maybe struturally building in areas in front of stages that mean people are just not as crowded and can spread out in their area more... or opt to be at the back of the area and still be able to see well... that might make 100% capacity a lot more doable.
I'm a major fan of the Newport Folk Festival and that footprint option just isn't the same for them, just like it's not really the same in any meaningful way for like Governor's Ball. And Coachella, dang, they already went from 80,000 to 100,000 WITHOUT expanding their footprint, and now with a little bigger expansion and 2 weekends they still expanded the daily capacity even bigger than 100,000 I think. Stuff of nightmares even when it's not a pandemic LOL!
So my guess is SHN has a good chance of going through, mainly because lots of fresh air and spacing people out, plus maybe an incentive for those who show up with evidence of vaccines/negative recent PCRs... those could really make it work while really cutting down on transmission even if some people did show up with Covid or a more transmissible variant.
[Edited to add:] I did just realize though that the cost of STAFFING those sections and monitoring #s to keep it at it's limit... that might cost so much it's untenable. Also what happens when the people who would usually camp out at the barricade would lose their spots (to be fair to others who want to be in th efront sections) and also where would people safely "wait" if they wanted into the closer sections? Might be hard to do well but again, for health/safety and to make the difference between happening or not, it might be an option somehow.
I was thinking about this, too - spreading the footprint. Though I don't think that'll matter because everyone just crams to the front anyway. If anything, to make it work they'll probably have to tier portions off depending on one's comfort. And they'd have to put an additional pricing/purchase/RSVP system into play for that. But, again, everything we're talking about is involving so many what-ifs.
So, now we're talking vax proof documents, negative test docs, enlarging the footprint, tiering the footpring, offering refunds, the increase costs, etc. Threading the needle on all of this just seems improbable.
Yeah I'm a big fan of our local Philly Folk Fest event and that's not happening this year (August) because of the costs and logistics involved.
As an extra aside - Mike has Crohn's right? I have to think someone with higher comorbidity risks isn't that enthusiastic without every single precaution and logistic being worked out.
The one thing people keep saying is America, America, America. Remember this is a band that has fans that travel from all around the world. I’m not sure if this is a band that will say, sorry you must be a resident of the USA to attend. Something to consider
Absolutely. And not to keep sticking to the jingoistic theme, but it's not like even in America can you keep someone out from another state (build the wall(s)! build the wall(s)! jk jk).
In no way am I rooting for a cancellation, but given how things are at this time - and given how this band can be nuanced and considerate in their thinking - I just don't see them deciding to go through with it. If anything I think I'd be super disappointed in them, all things considered. Seems like the realistic outcome is they either postpone indefinitely or refund everyone their money.
I agree with this. If there is a chance that holding the event would endanger their fans, it will not happen. Good news is that there is still a bit of time before they have to make a decision.
It’s not even their decision to make. Only if and when the state clears the show would they have a decision to make.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
If you offer refunds to those who can't meet the new requirements, you can ABSOLUTELY change the rules about the capacity, the terms of admission, ALL of it.
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
Correct - there are millions of logistics involved to make this all work. Put it all together and it just doesn't seem realistic of happening because of everything you just mentioned.
I saw Danny Clinch had a quote saying something like (paraphrasing) "if we get 100% capacity and approval then it's happening." But in the case of refunds getting back to 100% capacity (I'm assuming he means from his original number) becomes harder to do.
This band unknowingly had 9 people die in front of them in a trampling incident. I don't think they'd be comfortable going into a show (knowingly) with the possibility of losing one person based on a bunch of "If's" that need to line up perfectly.
Ok, then we undertand each other. I was more reacting to your comments about how they couldn't change the rules about admission at this point. They CAN change the rules in the name of public health & safety and circumstances that did not exist at the time tickets went onsale. That was my only point. The rest... we're on the same page.
And while we're all weighing in, I'm guessing that one thing that may be possible since it's a BEACH, although getting permits will no doubt add to the festival's costs & therefore reduce profits, is they can expand the footprint of the festival and organize "sections" that have fewer people than would naturally gather in the whole big general GA in front of a stage. The fact that it's not only outside but on the shore so from wind the air is circulating much better, that all really makes it much more likely that between whatever the vaccination rate of the audience is, and maybe struturally building in areas in front of stages that mean people are just not as crowded and can spread out in their area more... or opt to be at the back of the area and still be able to see well... that might make 100% capacity a lot more doable.
I'm a major fan of the Newport Folk Festival and that footprint option just isn't the same for them, just like it's not really the same in any meaningful way for like Governor's Ball. And Coachella, dang, they already went from 80,000 to 100,000 WITHOUT expanding their footprint, and now with a little bigger expansion and 2 weekends they still expanded the daily capacity even bigger than 100,000 I think. Stuff of nightmares even when it's not a pandemic LOL!
So my guess is SHN has a good chance of going through, mainly because lots of fresh air and spacing people out, plus maybe an incentive for those who show up with evidence of vaccines/negative recent PCRs... those could really make it work while really cutting down on transmission even if some people did show up with Covid or a more transmissible variant.
[Edited to add:] I did just realize though that the cost of STAFFING those sections and monitoring #s to keep it at it's limit... that might cost so much it's untenable. Also what happens when the people who would usually camp out at the barricade would lose their spots (to be fair to others who want to be in th efront sections) and also where would people safely "wait" if they wanted into the closer sections? Might be hard to do well but again, for health/safety and to make the difference between happening or not, it might be an option somehow.
Herd immunity on any national or even regional scale is unlikely to be achieved in 2021. There will be too many pockets of anti vaxxers etc. If herd immunity is the standard we can shut down all these discussions now. However I don’t think there has to be herd immunity to have a show that only vaccinated people can attend, for example.
Agreed - but that's not the deal with this show. It's a general admission show on the beach. If it was a show like, "prove your vaxed and you're in" (which I think would be highly questionable from a civil liberties standpoint) or with some modicum of social distancing built into the layout of seating, sure, but that's not the deal with this show.
As long as everyone has the opportunity for a vaccine I don’t see a civil liberty issue. If everyone is vaccinated it does not need to be distanced. That’s the whole point.
How are you going to prove everyone's vaccinated at a 30k+ general admission show? Are you not going to let them in?
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
If you offer refunds to those who can't meet the new requirements, you can ABSOLUTELY change the rules about the capacity, the terms of admission, ALL of it.
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
Correct - there are millions of logistics involved to make this all work. Put it all together and it just doesn't seem realistic of happening because of everything you just mentioned.
I saw Danny Clinch had a quote saying something like (paraphrasing) "if we get 100% capacity and approval then it's happening." But in the case of refunds getting back to 100% capacity (I'm assuming he means from his original number) becomes harder to do.
This band unknowingly had 9 people die in front of them in a trampling incident. I don't think they'd be comfortable going into a show (knowingly) with the possibility of losing one person based on a bunch of "If's" that need to line up perfectly.
Ok, then we undertand each other. I was more reacting to your comments about how they couldn't change the rules about admission at this point. They CAN change the rules in the name of public health & safety and circumstances that did not exist at the time tickets went onsale. That was my only point. The rest... we're on the same page.
And while we're all weighing in, I'm guessing that one thing that may be possible since it's a BEACH, although getting permits will no doubt add to the festival's costs & therefore reduce profits, is they can expand the footprint of the festival and organize "sections" that have fewer people than would naturally gather in the whole big general GA in front of a stage. The fact that it's not only outside but on the shore so from wind the air is circulating much better, that all really makes it much more likely that between whatever the vaccination rate of the audience is, and maybe struturally building in areas in front of stages that mean people are just not as crowded and can spread out in their area more... or opt to be at the back of the area and still be able to see well... that might make 100% capacity a lot more doable.
I'm a major fan of the Newport Folk Festival and that footprint option just isn't the same for them, just like it's not really the same in any meaningful way for like Governor's Ball. And Coachella, dang, they already went from 80,000 to 100,000 WITHOUT expanding their footprint, and now with a little bigger expansion and 2 weekends they still expanded the daily capacity even bigger than 100,000 I think. Stuff of nightmares even when it's not a pandemic LOL!
So my guess is SHN has a good chance of going through, mainly because lots of fresh air and spacing people out, plus maybe an incentive for those who show up with evidence of vaccines/negative recent PCRs... those could really make it work while really cutting down on transmission even if some people did show up with Covid or a more transmissible variant.
[Edited to add:] I did just realize though that the cost of STAFFING those sections and monitoring #s to keep it at it's limit... that might cost so much it's untenable. Also what happens when the people who would usually camp out at the barricade would lose their spots (to be fair to others who want to be in th efront sections) and also where would people safely "wait" if they wanted into the closer sections? Might be hard to do well but again, for health/safety and to make the difference between happening or not, it might be an option somehow.
I was thinking about this, too - spreading the footprint. Though I don't think that'll matter because everyone just crams to the front anyway. If anything, to make it work they'll probably have to tier portions off depending on one's comfort. And they'd have to put an additional pricing/purchase/RSVP system into play for that. But, again, everything we're talking about is involving so many what-ifs.
So, now we're talking vax proof documents, negative test docs, enlarging the footprint, tiering the footpring, offering refunds, the increase costs, etc. Threading the needle on all of this just seems improbable.
Yeah I'm a big fan of our local Philly Folk Fest event and that's not happening this year (August) because of the costs and logistics involved.
As an extra aside - Mike has Crohn's right? I have to think someone with higher comorbidity risks isn't that enthusiastic without every single precaution and logistic being worked out.
I understand why "threading the needle on all of this just seems improbable" is how you see it. All I can say is, in a "normal" year, the # of logistics and unexpected challenges and problems that need to be solved would probably give a regular person lifelong anxiety. Some festivals do it better than others, but a lot of festivals wouldn't even happen if the organizers didn't have stunning ability to turn "the improbable" into "the done". So I don't let the fact that I can't wrap my mind about it make me sure those who had to think through a zillion solutions to even put the festival on can't figure it out...;)
Maybe they can't - maybe there are too many insurmountable factors. But if anyone can, I bet they can.
The one thing people keep saying is America, America, America. Remember this is a band that has fans that travel from all around the world. I’m not sure if this is a band that will say, sorry you must be a resident of the USA to attend. Something to consider
Absolutely. And not to keep sticking to the jingoistic theme, but it's not like even in America can you keep someone out from another state (build the wall(s)! build the wall(s)! jk jk).
In no way am I rooting for a cancellation, but given how things are at this time - and given how this band can be nuanced and considerate in their thinking - I just don't see them deciding to go through with it. If anything I think I'd be super disappointed in them, all things considered. Seems like the realistic outcome is they either postpone indefinitely or refund everyone their money.
I agree with this. If there is a chance that holding the event would endanger their fans, it will not happen. Good news is that there is still a bit of time before they have to make a decision.
It’s not even their decision to make. Only if and when the state clears the show would they have a decision to make.
True. Id guess there may still be decision after the state says yes or no.
What is going to change in "2022" or whatever mythical date vs this Fall?
By May/June everyone who wants the vaccine will have access to it. And every piece of research we have shows that the vaccine at best prevents infection completely and at worse limits the severity of the virus in a major way. Anecdotally saw this in my family as my 70 y/o father contracted COVID 2 weeks after his first shot...thankfully only ended up having a head cold for a week.
So with a large gathering, yes you are potentially talking about cases - but among the vaccinated they have an extremely high probability of being non-severe. Cases are only a relevant metric if you are under the delusion of the belief that this virus is going to somehow be eradicated. We can't self-engineer our own dystopia out of ignorance and fear...it's time to start taking calculated risks.
A dystopia would be going on like life is normal while people are still getting sick.
This makes sense, too, because now we get an entire winter cycle with the vax pumping through peoples veins and see what that looks like. "Every piece of research" is still new. What's needed now is time. Every result of research we've seen so far is promising but it's no where near enough yet.
A dystopia would be going on like life is normal while people are still getting sick.
This makes sense, too, because now we get an entire winter cycle with the vax pumping through peoples veins and see what that looks like. "Every piece of research" is still new. What's needed now is time. Every result of research we've seen so far is promising but it's no where near enough yet.
Agreed. And re: the post you're responding to, it's one thing to "take calcuated risks" only on your own behalf or your family's. It's another thing ENTIRELY to calculate risk for 10s of thousands of people and know your judgement might either prevent or make possible infections that otherwise would not have occurred.
What will change by 2022? We'll either have true herd immunity and also know more about other prevention and other treatment... OR we'll have actually largely gotten the virus under control. Given the timeline and evolution of the virus and our response so far (and of course acknowledging how much time we lost, damage was done, and how much WORSE it spread because of horrible national leadership), it's very very likely one or the other of those 2 scenarios will have happened.
And either of those is a FAR BETTER time to tour the venues you already sold out. So that's what will be different, and it's a big dang difference.
Comments
07.08.03 MSG 07.09.03 MSG 7.12.03 Hershey 7.14.03 Holmdel 6.12.08 Tampa 10.19.13 Brooklyn 4.11.16 Tampa
5.1.16 MSG 5.2.16 MSG 8.7.16 Fenway 9.2.18 Fenway 9.4.18 Fenway 9.11.22 MSG 9.16.22 Nashville 9.18.23 Austin 9.19.23 Austin
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
In no way am I rooting for a cancellation, but given how things are at this time - and given how this band can be nuanced and considerate in their thinking - I just don't see them deciding to go through with it. If anything I think I'd be super disappointed in them, all things considered. Seems like the realistic outcome is they either postpone indefinitely or refund everyone their money.
You can't deny entrance to someone and have to have them prove they got vaxed when they didn't purchase tickets under such circumstances. I'm all about getting vaxed, but that kinda shit won't hold up in court.
It's not like public events aren't going on. It's all about expectations. I'm a Phillies season ticket holder, for example, they took my money from 2020 and put it towards 2021. Now, there's a capacity limit (social distancing protocol) and they're offering refunds or defer your money toward a later time. I don't think either of these can be done for SHN. Only thing I can think of is they give people the option of a refund.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
As has been beaten to death, there are economic/financial reasons for festivals maybe not feeling able to decrease capacity. But you're acting as if from a legal standpoint this would be "false advertising" or the festival "just deciding now" that they don't want people from "states beginning with the letter M or N" to attend. In cases of "Acts of God" or let's say, a global pandemic, if it's for health/safety reasons you CAN change the rules of admission, as long as you are ready to give all those who cannot abide by those rules or don't want to the option to get their money back. And from a capacity point of view, that's probably best anyway. But if you can come if you've got proof of vax plus a negative PCR test from 72 hrs or less before showtime... you can absolutely change that rule.
Again, there are a million other factors though that might make that impossible or unwise or unfeasible from the festival organizers' points of view or from some bands' points of view.
I saw Danny Clinch had a quote saying something like (paraphrasing) "if we get 100% capacity and approval then it's happening." But in the case of refunds getting back to 100% capacity (I'm assuming he means from his original number) becomes harder to do.
This band unknowingly had 9 people die in front of them in a trampling incident. I don't think they'd be comfortable going into a show (knowingly) with the possibility of losing one person based on a bunch of "If's" that need to line up perfectly.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
And while we're all weighing in, I'm guessing that one thing that may be possible since it's a BEACH, although getting permits will no doubt add to the festival's costs & therefore reduce profits, is they can expand the footprint of the festival and organize "sections" that have fewer people than would naturally gather in the whole big general GA in front of a stage. The fact that it's not only outside but on the shore so from wind the air is circulating much better, that all really makes it much more likely that between whatever the vaccination rate of the audience is, and maybe struturally building in areas in front of stages that mean people are just not as crowded and can spread out in their area more... or opt to be at the back of the area and still be able to see well... that might make 100% capacity a lot more doable.
I'm a major fan of the Newport Folk Festival and that footprint option just isn't the same for them, just like it's not really the same in any meaningful way for like Governor's Ball. And Coachella, dang, they already went from 80,000 to 100,000 WITHOUT expanding their footprint, and now with a little bigger expansion and 2 weekends they still expanded the daily capacity even bigger than 100,000 I think. Stuff of nightmares even when it's not a pandemic LOL!
So my guess is SHN has a good chance of going through, mainly because lots of fresh air and spacing people out, plus maybe an incentive for those who show up with evidence of vaccines/negative recent PCRs... those could really make it work while really cutting down on transmission even if some people did show up with Covid or a more transmissible variant.
[Edited to add:] I did just realize though that the cost of STAFFING those sections and monitoring #s to keep it at it's limit... that might cost so much it's untenable. Also what happens when the people who would usually camp out at the barricade would lose their spots (to be fair to others who want to be in th efront sections) and also where would people safely "wait" if they wanted into the closer sections? Might be hard to do well but again, for health/safety and to make the difference between happening or not, it might be an option somehow.
So, now we're talking vax proof documents, negative test docs, enlarging the footprint, tiering the footpring, offering refunds, the increase costs, etc. Threading the needle on all of this just seems improbable.
Yeah I'm a big fan of our local Philly Folk Fest event and that's not happening this year (August) because of the costs and logistics involved.
As an extra aside - Mike has Crohn's right? I have to think someone with higher comorbidity risks isn't that enthusiastic without every single precaution and logistic being worked out.
Maybe they can't - maybe there are too many insurmountable factors. But if anyone can, I bet they can.
Now I gotta work on talking to this AirBnB lady....
By May/June everyone who wants the vaccine will have access to it. And every piece of research we have shows that the vaccine at best prevents infection completely and at worse limits the severity of the virus in a major way. Anecdotally saw this in my family as my 70 y/o father contracted COVID 2 weeks after his first shot...thankfully only ended up having a head cold for a week.
So with a large gathering, yes you are potentially talking about cases - but among the vaccinated they have an extremely high probability of being non-severe. Cases are only a relevant metric if you are under the delusion of the belief that this virus is going to somehow be eradicated. We can't self-engineer our own dystopia out of ignorance and fear...it's time to start taking calculated risks.
This makes sense, too, because now we get an entire winter cycle with the vax pumping through peoples veins and see what that looks like. "Every piece of research" is still new. What's needed now is time. Every result of research we've seen so far is promising but it's no where near enough yet.
What will change by 2022? We'll either have true herd immunity and also know more about other prevention and other treatment... OR we'll have actually largely gotten the virus under control. Given the timeline and evolution of the virus and our response so far (and of course acknowledging how much time we lost, damage was done, and how much WORSE it spread because of horrible national leadership), it's very very likely one or the other of those 2 scenarios will have happened.
And either of those is a FAR BETTER time to tour the venues you already sold out. So that's what will be different, and it's a big dang difference.