2020 Fall North American rumour thread

Flying MXZ · December 2020

Zod said:

If no ones vaccinated at the show (as only health care workers, care home residents got it), then most people at the show aren't immune to it. Say for middle aged people it has a 2% chance of requiring hospitalization, and a .05% mortality rate. Fairly low numbers. If you do that show before the majority has vaccine's or natural immunity, it's going to rip through that venue like a lighting bolt in a forrest after 6 months of drought.

Say it's a 20000 people show and the virus spreads to half the occupants. 10000 people. 200 could end up in the hospital, and 50 could die (based on my made up but somewhat educated guess on the hospitalization/mortality rates of middle age people). That doesn't include when they go home and pass it on to family members, friends, and coworkers.

How do you pull that off? My understanding of Coronavirus is that the most insidious thing about it, isn't how lethal it is, it's how easily it spreads. A small fraction of a large number is still a significant amount of people.

I think what TM is proposing with the you have to prove your vaccinated or prove a negative test will be the interim step, but they're still going to have until the population has enough vaccinated people to fill most of those seats.

Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.

I don't disagree with your point at all, but the math is off. 0.05% is .0005 x 10000 = 5 dead. Which is still way too many just to go see a concert.

Zod · December 2020

Flying MXZ said:

Zod said:

If no ones vaccinated at the show (as only health care workers, care home residents got it), then most people at the show aren't immune to it. Say for middle aged people it has a 2% chance of requiring hospitalization, and a .05% mortality rate. Fairly low numbers. If you do that show before the majority has vaccine's or natural immunity, it's going to rip through that venue like a lighting bolt in a forrest after 6 months of drought.

Say it's a 20000 people show and the virus spreads to half the occupants. 10000 people. 200 could end up in the hospital, and 50 could die (based on my made up but somewhat educated guess on the hospitalization/mortality rates of middle age people). That doesn't include when they go home and pass it on to family members, friends, and coworkers.

How do you pull that off? My understanding of Coronavirus is that the most insidious thing about it, isn't how lethal it is, it's how easily it spreads. A small fraction of a large number is still a significant amount of people.

I think what TM is proposing with the you have to prove your vaccinated or prove a negative test will be the interim step, but they're still going to have until the population has enough vaccinated people to fill most of those seats.

Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.

I don't disagree with your point at all, but the math is off. 0.05% is .0005 x 10000 = 5 dead. Which is still way too many just to go see a concert.

right! thank you for pointing that out

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan · December 2020

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

BlueLedbetter · December 2020

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

Same for Europe?

mcgruff10 · December 2020

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

No sea hear and now festival?

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan · December 2020

BlueLedbetter said:

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

Same for Europe?

I don’t really ask about Europe. I can only imagine right now since those are still being advertised, the plan is to go ahead but things can change.

PJNB · December 2020

If NA is not happening at any time next year there is no chance at Europe happening.

Pearl Jam has 2 festivals set up next fall. If the doctors and government say it is safe to play I am betting they are going to play. Is 2022 the safe bet for them to allow concerts to happen? Maybe but it is way too early to write off 2021 already and I can not imagine PJ is doing so. We will know a lot more by April after a large amount of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Again the government and doctors will decide this not Pearl Jam. Now if Pearl Jam is being told not to expect to be allowed to tour until 2022 by the professionals then that is a different story. I would hope however that they use the wait and see approach on how the vaccine works before making a decision like this in December 2020.

bbiggs · December 2020

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

Yikes. Not encouraging news, if accurate.

demetrios · December 2020

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

2022? Lucky if we get to attend a big Pearl Jam concert that early.

Zod said:

Personally there's no way I go to a concert until I'm vaccinated, which means I'd probably go get one just so I can start doing stuff again.

Even if you get vaccinated, you still have to distance yourself, wear a mask etc ... like what we all have been doing since March 2020. Until there is a 100% cure, doubt we will be seeing GA for a long time. It's gonna be reserved seating going forward.

bbiggs · December 2020

PJNB said:

If NA is not happening at any time next year there is no chance at Europe happening.

Pearl Jam has 2 festivals set up next fall. If the doctors and government say it is safe to play I am betting they are going to play. Is 2022 the safe bet for them to allow concerts to happen? Maybe but it is way too early to write off 2021 already and I can not imagine PJ is doing so. We will know a lot more by April after a large amount of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Again the government and doctors will decide this not Pearl Jam. Now if Pearl Jam is being told not to expect to be allowed to tour until 2022 by the professionals then that is a different story. I would hope however that they use the wait and see approach on how the vaccine works before making a decision like this in December 2020.

The person who posted this has had reliable information before, as you know, so while I agree with what you're saying, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth to this 2022 statement. Maybe PJ doesn't want to be playing to half full arenas if that is the initial mandate. Who knows. I'll continue to hope for Fall 2021, but will set my expectations for 2022 at this point.

PJNB · December 2020

bbiggs said:

PJNB said:

If NA is not happening at any time next year there is no chance at Europe happening.

Pearl Jam has 2 festivals set up next fall. If the doctors and government say it is safe to play I am betting they are going to play. Is 2022 the safe bet for them to allow concerts to happen? Maybe but it is way too early to write off 2021 already and I can not imagine PJ is doing so. We will know a lot more by April after a large amount of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Again the government and doctors will decide this not Pearl Jam. Now if Pearl Jam is being told not to expect to be allowed to tour until 2022 by the professionals then that is a different story. I would hope however that they use the wait and see approach on how the vaccine works before making a decision like this in December 2020.

The person who posted this has had reliable information before, as you know, so while I agree with what you're saying, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth to this 2022 statement. Maybe PJ doesn't want to be playing to half full arenas if that is the initial mandate. Who knows. I'll continue to hope for Fall 2021, but will set my expectations for 2022 at this point.

I would then ask what were they expecting to happen when rebooking for 2021? We are getting the best case scenario right now with the vaccine coming earlier than expected in December. I find it hard to believe that we have this scenario and they are not going to at least wait and see how the early roll out of the vaccine changes things. Again 2022 safe bet ya maybe but to call it off in December 2020 is crazy after rebooking.

Clapper · December 2020

. Until there is a 100% cure, doubt we will be seeing GA for a long time. It's gonna be reserved seating going forward.

Silver lining. Unpopular opinion, GA sucks and so the the rail campers.

on2legs · December 2020

Not endorsing this one way or the other... just posting for info...

https://liveforlivemusic.com/news/live-nation-joe-berchtold-concerts-return-2021-watch/

drakeheuer14 · December 2020

Clapper said:

. Until there is a 100% cure, doubt we will be seeing GA for a long time. It's gonna be reserved seating going forward.

Silver lining. Unpopular opinion, GA sucks and so the the rail campers.

If there is a system that doesn’t refer to seniority for reserved seating on the floor, then I am in. If not, so many people say bye bye to that chance of being close.

Of course, still prefer GA. Feels more like a concert that way on the floor.

Concerts 2021! Hold the hope!

Clapper · December 2020

drakeheuer14 said:

If there is a system that doesn’t refer to seniority for reserved seating on the floor, then I am in. If not, so many people say bye bye to that chance of being close.

I feel like there has always been balance for that with the band's previous system when floor seats are reserved. Row 1,2, 9 and 10 are random draw so its not always the same people. I think a lot of fans outside of the rail campers would be in favour of expanding that to include more rows close to the stage to expand the opportunity to more 10 clubbers.

RatherStarved · December 2020

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

Noooooooooooooooo

PJNB · December 2020

RatherStarved said:

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

What I’m hearing is 2022. Sorry guys and gals. Hopefully things change.

Noooooooooooooooo

Lol I know its not funny but I definitely read this with Michaels Scotts voice saying it.

jimjam1982 · December 2020

Disappointing to hear 2022. A bit over the top but expected of a cautious group like PJ. They need to cancel and refund if true. The draws were all 99% but 2 cities so its no big deal. Hard to imagine the itinerary is the same in 2022.

tdawe · December 2020

tschav said:

At this rate I’d drop a couple hundred bucks for a 10c VR helmet and a livestream show. Everyone gets a rail spot without lining up and a much easier piss break situation.

Don’t even need to “break,” really.

Lost In Ohio · December 2020

Pfizer says they can't get enough to the USA until June or July.

Let's say that's 50 million people at two doses per person or around 15% of the population...if all doses get used eliminating spoilage and everyone realizing they need two vaccines. Herd immunity supposedly is somewhere around 70% of the population.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pfizer-tells-us-officials-it-cannot-supply-substantial-additional-vaccine-until-late-june-or-july/ar-BB1bIDtN

August might be too soon, knowing how safe the band is about things. They may want to wait until other bands start up and then wait for any additional waves.

2020 Fall North American rumour thread

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