2020 Fall North American rumour thread

D-Rod

PJNB said:

1STmammal2wearPants said:

PB11041 said:

RatherStarved said:

PJNB said:

RatherStarved said:

PB11041 said:

No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.

This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 

Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!

The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  

worst case scenario would be that this occurred just 10 or even 5 years ago.  Technology has made the collateral damage less so.

Thank God this vaccine is here now at already 300,000 dead - I can't imagine what it would be like if this was on the normal vaccine timeline of years. Really a miracle it's here this quickly. 

Never thought we'd be at the prospect of thinking about shows in 2021, but seems like we can get there in the Fall or Winter/Spring 2022. These Quebec tickets are waiting to be enjoyed

Watching the news this morning on CTV there are professionals out there saying that we will be back to normal by this summer in Canada and on top of that anyone that wants to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by September 2021. They have been conservative with their numbers so far too so while we still need to get the vaccines in our hands and into the arms of patients all signs are pointing in the positive direction. 

With Justin Trudeau saying September of 2021 for mass vaccinations I’m wondering if the real date is June/July.  That way he can state he over delivered on his promise.   It would be a smart decision for any politician to do. 

RatherStarved

I like the optimism today.  Fingers crossed. 

lastexit78

PJNB said:

Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 

I feared this logic for a while but it's just not going down this way for a variety of reasons. I saw a NBC poll that 88% of Americans would take the vaccine this morning. 63% initially and the other 25% a wait and see approach. Anti-vaxxers are cowherds who in my opinion will mostly take the vaccine when they realize the fate of the country and any realistic recovery hinges on it. Plus it protects you from getting sick and dying. I just don't see more than 10-15% of this country being that stupid.

Aside from all that just look at the numbers. If immunity lasts a year and potentially even much longer as a lot of scientist are concluding we will be well above 75% by late next year. Conservative estimates put us at 15-20% right now and we are adding a million confirmed cases every 3 days! That's just confirmed cases, nobody knows the full depth of this thing. I have some idiot neighbors two houses down, wife tested positive, husband is a denier, won't get tested, doesn't wear a mask and goes to work everyday. Oh and they have a 7 year old son. Point is I'm pretty sure 66% of the cases in that house never get counted. A large % of the anti-vaxxer crowd are going to get infected in the next 9-12 months. They are also the deniers and overall ignorant. Lets just say 75% of us are vaccinated by the end of July. That gives the population a roughly 70% immunity level and I'm not even throwing in the 30% of the population infected naturally by that point.  If we can't get to 80-85% immunity by the end of 2021 then we really screwed something up. I mean our own stupidity has given us a huge head start with the amount of infection flowing through out communities right now. Bottom line, unless reinfections start occurring in large numbers by March & April we'll survive. I still don't see PJ hitting the stage in 2021 but that's just my opinion. If we're enjoying shows by 2022 I would be very thankful.

BF89905

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Pearl Jam plays a live show with a live audience in 2021. Be safe everyone and socially responsible everyone. Happy Holiday season to you and yours.

PJNB

lastexit78 said:

PJNB said:

Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 

I feared this logic for a while but it's just not going down this way for a variety of reasons. I saw a NBC poll that 88% of Americans would take the vaccine this morning. 63% initially and the other 25% a wait and see approach. Anti-vaxxers are cowherds who in my opinion will mostly take the vaccine when they realize the fate of the country and any realistic recovery hinges on it. Plus it protects you from getting sick and dying. I just don't see more than 10-15% of this country being that stupid.

Aside from all that just look at the numbers. If immunity lasts a year and potentially even much longer as a lot of scientist are concluding we will be well above 75% by late next year. Conservative estimates put us at 15-20% right now and we are adding a million confirmed cases every 3 days! That's just confirmed cases, nobody knows the full depth of this thing. I have some idiot neighbors two houses down, wife tested positive, husband is a denier, won't get tested, doesn't wear a mask and goes to work everyday. Oh and they have a 7 year old son. Point is I'm pretty sure 66% of the cases in that house never get counted. A large % of the anti-vaxxer crowd are going to get infected in the next 9-12 months. They are also the deniers and overall ignorant. Lets just say 75% of us are vaccinated by the end of July. That gives the population a roughly 70% immunity level and I'm not even throwing in the 30% of the population infected naturally by that point.  If we can't get to 80-85% immunity by the end of 2021 then we really screwed something up. I mean our own stupidity has given us a huge head start with the amount of infection flowing through out communities right now. Bottom line, unless reinfections start occurring in large numbers by March & April we'll survive. I still don't see PJ hitting the stage in 2021 but that's just my opinion. If we're enjoying shows by 2022 I would be very thankful.

Great points and I hope you are right with your thoughts on how many people will get the vaccine.

One problem remains getting to herd immunity however and that is kids are not getting vaccinated anytime soon. I do not see many people talking about this when they talk about herd immunity on the news and the numbers are just not there yet for it. There are 64 million boys and girls that are 15 and under in the USA. That is roughly 20% of your population. That puts a huge dent in getting to herd immunity anytime next year. 60% is on the low side and 75% is on the high side for herd immunity depending who you ask. Funny enough that is roughly the numbers that were thought to be how effective the vaccine was going to be if you asked the experts months ago. Now we have 90-95% and have a much greater shot at stopping this virus. 

My belief, which is worthless I know, is that kids do not need to get vaccinated to go back to normal. If all of the low risk adults are vaccinated and the old and vulnerable with them then I feel like it we do not need to rush to vaccinate the kids until a lot more testing has been done. I know I would be very hesitant letting my kids get the vaccine (2,4 and 6) this early in its life and I am as pro vaccine as they come. With more testing then yes I would vaccinate my kids without hesitation. 

Kids may spread it still but they are not at risk of it and far likely to be asymptomatic making it less likely to spread it even if they tried. Again if those at risk are protected and the adults that want to get the vaccine have the chance to do so lets get this show going and bring some normalcy back to life concerts included. 

RatherStarved

There are plenty of people at tonight’s Ravens-Browns game.  

Zod

D-Rod said:

PJNB said:

1STmammal2wearPants said:

PB11041 said:

RatherStarved said:

PJNB said:

RatherStarved said:

PB11041 said:

No point in speculating on any of this until we see vaccines actually role out worldwide and how that impacts the general consensus of goverments and their top health advisers.

This is true.  On the other hand as there are no concerts or really anything else to do, speculation is all we have! 

Seems like yesterday we were speculating if the spring tour was going to be cancelled. Then Europe, then the rumoured fall, now its who knows when when we will see them next. Fingers crossed its good in the fall to have shows!

The way things have evolved really seems to be close to the worst case scenario, with the exception that there is hope on the horizon with the vaccines.  

worst case scenario would be that this occurred just 10 or even 5 years ago.  Technology has made the collateral damage less so.

Thank God this vaccine is here now at already 300,000 dead - I can't imagine what it would be like if this was on the normal vaccine timeline of years. Really a miracle it's here this quickly. 

Never thought we'd be at the prospect of thinking about shows in 2021, but seems like we can get there in the Fall or Winter/Spring 2022. These Quebec tickets are waiting to be enjoyed

Watching the news this morning on CTV there are professionals out there saying that we will be back to normal by this summer in Canada and on top of that anyone that wants to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by September 2021. They have been conservative with their numbers so far too so while we still need to get the vaccines in our hands and into the arms of patients all signs are pointing in the positive direction. 

With Justin Trudeau saying September of 2021 for mass vaccinations I’m wondering if the real date is June/July.  That way he can state he over delivered on his promise.   It would be a smart decision for any politician to do. 

Or the opposite.  If I was in charge I'd add 20% to any budget or timeline just in case.    If you finish a bit early people are going to complain, but if you run late or overbudget people will.  

It's never a good idea when planning things to give yourself a non-existent or razor thin margin of error.

lastexit78

PJNB said:

lastexit78 said:

PJNB said:

Fauci was just on record saying that we could have herd immunity in the USA by fall. He is saying that 75% of the population should be able to have been vaccinated by then to achieve that. 

I think he is severely underestimating how many people are not going to get this vaccine due to the quickness it was made and just outright antivaxxers. . On top of that 16 and unders will not be vaccinated in 2021. There is going to be a point next year that we will have plenty of vaccines and no one left or willing to be vaccinated I bet. What then if we have not hit nowheres close to herd immunity? 

I feared this logic for a while but it's just not going down this way for a variety of reasons. I saw a NBC poll that 88% of Americans would take the vaccine this morning. 63% initially and the other 25% a wait and see approach. Anti-vaxxers are cowherds who in my opinion will mostly take the vaccine when they realize the fate of the country and any realistic recovery hinges on it. Plus it protects you from getting sick and dying. I just don't see more than 10-15% of this country being that stupid.

Aside from all that just look at the numbers. If immunity lasts a year and potentially even much longer as a lot of scientist are concluding we will be well above 75% by late next year. Conservative estimates put us at 15-20% right now and we are adding a million confirmed cases every 3 days! That's just confirmed cases, nobody knows the full depth of this thing. I have some idiot neighbors two houses down, wife tested positive, husband is a denier, won't get tested, doesn't wear a mask and goes to work everyday. Oh and they have a 7 year old son. Point is I'm pretty sure 66% of the cases in that house never get counted. A large % of the anti-vaxxer crowd are going to get infected in the next 9-12 months. They are also the deniers and overall ignorant. Lets just say 75% of us are vaccinated by the end of July. That gives the population a roughly 70% immunity level and I'm not even throwing in the 30% of the population infected naturally by that point.  If we can't get to 80-85% immunity by the end of 2021 then we really screwed something up. I mean our own stupidity has given us a huge head start with the amount of infection flowing through out communities right now. Bottom line, unless reinfections start occurring in large numbers by March & April we'll survive. I still don't see PJ hitting the stage in 2021 but that's just my opinion. If we're enjoying shows by 2022 I would be very thankful.

Great points and I hope you are right with your thoughts on how many people will get the vaccine.

One problem remains getting to herd immunity however and that is kids are not getting vaccinated anytime soon. I do not see many people talking about this when they talk about herd immunity on the news and the numbers are just not there yet for it. There are 64 million boys and girls that are 15 and under in the USA. That is roughly 20% of your population. That puts a huge dent in getting to herd immunity anytime next year. 60% is on the low side and 75% is on the high side for herd immunity depending who you ask. Funny enough that is roughly the numbers that were thought to be how effective the vaccine was going to be if you asked the experts months ago. Now we have 90-95% and have a much greater shot at stopping this virus. 

My belief, which is worthless I know, is that kids do not need to get vaccinated to go back to normal. If all of the low risk adults are vaccinated and the old and vulnerable with them then I feel like it we do not need to rush to vaccinate the kids until a lot more testing has been done. I know I would be very hesitant letting my kids get the vaccine (2,4 and 6) this early in its life and I am as pro vaccine as they come. With more testing then yes I would vaccinate my kids without hesitation. 

Kids may spread it still but they are not at risk of it and far likely to be asymptomatic making it less likely to spread it even if they tried. Again if those at risk are protected and the adults that want to get the vaccine have the chance to do so lets get this show going and bring some normalcy back to life concerts included. 

I agree with your thoughts on children. I have a 9 year old son and would like to see these trials on the 15 and under age group play out before running to get him his shot. By the time we get to that point there should be a lot more data available. Including better understanding on just how much children are spreading the virus. If adults and especially those at risk are pretty well protected I’m not entirely sure it matters how many young people are vaccinated. Once ICU’s enter a steady decline, probably in April you’ll see a legit light at the end of the tunnel. Something like 150 Americans under age 21 have died from COVID. Almost all with pre existing conditions. While tragic we were really lucky with this virus. Look back at the 1918 pandemic in which tens of thousands of children died. If COVID had the same mortality rate in older adults as it has to children we wouldn’t be having this conversation. We’d be ranking our favorite shows of 2020 and not tying to predict what year an actual show might take place. Stay safe and we’ll get through this,

PeterED

RatherStarved said:

There are plenty of people at tonight’s Ravens-Browns game.  

I’m not sure the USA is the standard to which we should strive.

ComeToTX

PeterED said:

RatherStarved said:

There are plenty of people at tonight’s Ravens-Browns game.  

I’m not sure the USA is the standard to which we should strive.

Ha. Very true. That crowd was much smaller than many of the college games too. 

PJNB

Toronto is aiming to relaunch its theatre in September after guidance from medical experts when it will be safe again to have live shows. While a far cry from a rock concert with GA and 20,000 fans it still gives a glimpse into when the experts are thinking we can gather in a group again. 

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/the-show-must-go-on-mirvish-aims-to-relaunch-main-subscriber-season-in-fall-2021-1.5230770

Lost In Ohio

When do the rumors for tours typically start going strong? 3-4 months in advance? 5-6 months ahead?

I think we can safely say June 2021 is out of the picture for a bunch of drunk and/or stoned people to safely stand together in a GA section. I'd also say that September is out for Pearl Jam.

PJNB

https://festileaks.com/2020/12/pearl-jam-stelt-tournee-uit-tot-2022/?fbclid=IwAR0vgfn6H4yACvyhqGKsOSWibuf6xx8p4CsEtMv1jXSYBpHYycnZe2r_q4Y

Things are starting to feel normal again. Our forum members getting quoted as the main source on a "news" site. Congrats Leafs! 

Also the guy on CNN today said the US could have herd immunity by late spring/summer. I don't see it but who am I to argue. 

Weston1283

Just received my Pfizer vaccine.  Hopeful for the future of not only our planet but for some Pearl Jam shows soon!

JackD.

Weston1283 said:

Just received my Pfizer vaccine.  Hopeful for the future of not only our planet but for some Pearl Jam shows soon!

Are you 80+?

HughFreakingDillon

PJNB said:

https://festileaks.com/2020/12/pearl-jam-stelt-tournee-uit-tot-2022/?fbclid=IwAR0vgfn6H4yACvyhqGKsOSWibuf6xx8p4CsEtMv1jXSYBpHYycnZe2r_q4Y

Things are starting to feel normal again. Our forum members getting quoted as the main source on a "news" site. Congrats Leafs! 

Also the guy on CNN today said the US could have herd immunity by late spring/summer. I don't see it but who am I to argue. 

i can't imagine the US will EVER reach proper herd immunity. there is a very high percentage that have stated they will not take the vaccine. 

HughFreakingDillon

at least RBC finally extended our credit when we could re-book our flight. up until a few days ago we would have had to rebook by Dec 20 of this year. they've extended it a year. 

*phew*

on2legs

JackD. said:

Weston1283 said:

Just received my Pfizer vaccine.  Hopeful for the future of not only our planet but for some Pearl Jam shows soon!

Are you 80+?

I think he posted he works in the healthcare field. 

on2legs

HughFreakingDillon said:

PJNB said:

https://festileaks.com/2020/12/pearl-jam-stelt-tournee-uit-tot-2022/?fbclid=IwAR0vgfn6H4yACvyhqGKsOSWibuf6xx8p4CsEtMv1jXSYBpHYycnZe2r_q4Y

Things are starting to feel normal again. Our forum members getting quoted as the main source on a "news" site. Congrats Leafs! 

Also the guy on CNN today said the US could have herd immunity by late spring/summer. I don't see it but who am I to argue. 

i can't imagine the US will EVER reach proper herd immunity. there is a very high percentage that have stated they will not take the vaccine. 

Attitudes here are shifting recently with most people in favor of getting vaccinated.  

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/americans-receive-covid-19-vaccine-divided-timing-poll/story?id=74703426

on2legs

Also... Fauci was on the news this morning saying the vaccine would be available to the general public by March.