Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

mrussel1 · June 2020

Biden

I think Trump's Christian support has eroded a bit, at least according to the polls. Dumping Pence may not be in the cards because of that.

The Juggler · June 2020

Biden

Can I just take a moment to point out that Joe Biden is currently DESTROYING Trump? He's not just doing okay, he is literally destroying him at the moment. Long time to go but if the election were today, I'm confident he would win in a landslide.

Gern Blansten · June 2020

Biden

The Juggler said:

Can I just take a moment to point out that Joe Biden is currently DESTROYING Trump? He's not just doing okay, he is literally destroying him at the moment. Long time to go but if the election were today, I'm confident he would win in a landslide.

Fours years ago they used the Comey/Email announcements to sink Hillary at the last minute. They will obviously try to use Burisma to attack Biden but I just don't think it will matter.

As long as Biden doesn't collapse on stage during a debate he has this.

Halifax2TheMax · June 2020

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Can I just take a moment to point out that Joe Biden is currently DESTROYING Trump? He's not just doing okay, he is literally destroying him at the moment. Long time to go but if the election were today, I'm confident he would win in a landslide.

Fours years ago they used the Comey/Email announcements to sink Hillary at the last minute. They will obviously try to use Burisma to attack Biden but I just don't think it will matter.

As long as Biden doesn't collapse on stage during a debate he has this.

Look for Tara Reade to attend a debate or two. There will be some BS, made up phony story regarding Obamagate and Sleepy Woke Joe's role coming out soon. CYA Barr keeps hinting at all the malfeasance about to come out via the CT AG's investigation. Plus, he still has Ruddy Ghouliani's Ukraine fact finding report to release. How do you credibly counter that shit? It'll be Swift Boating 2.0.

Hi! · June 2020

Biden

Nothing but fear and loathing for me here in Trump country/county. Could be not having had a cig in 77 days, but I suspect this feeling to continue into Dec. 2020 when the Supreme Court declares Biden the winner, god willing.

The Juggler · June 2020

Biden

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

Gern Blansten · June 2020

Biden

The Juggler said:

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up

Gern Blansten · June 2020

Biden

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504461-fiorina-planning-to-vote-for-biden

This is kinda big...I think we will see more of this as we get closer to the election. I predict that some big name repubs will voice support for Biden very close to the election to damage tRump.

HughFreakingDillon · June 2020

Biden

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up

I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?

Gern Blansten · June 2020

Biden

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up

I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?

Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election. The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes. Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

Gern Blansten · June 2020

Biden

I really think the tRump strategy is used up. What worked in 2016 (tRump as a non-politician running against the evil HC) is not going to work this time. He has a record that isn't pretty.

JimmyV · June 2020

Biden

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

OnWis97 · June 2020

Biden

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up

I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?

Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election. The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes. Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

I think it was more like a 70% chance. But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016. "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."

static111 · June 2020

Biden

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up

I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?

Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election. The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes. Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

I think it was more like a 70% chance. But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016. "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."

It’s the berniebros fault is the new it’s the berniebros fault...wait

dignin · June 2020

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up

I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?

Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election. The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes. Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

I think it was more like a 70% chance. But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016. "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."

Not the same.

Hillary never had these numbers in 2016, they are polling a lot more in the swing states this time around to get a more accurate picture and Trump is running on 4 years of a failed record.

That said I expect it to tighten. Hope I'm wrong.

mrussel1 · June 2020

Biden

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Oh my god. Biden is demolishing the president right night. It’s not even close

yeah when the state polls seem to line up with the national polls it gives them credibility....now Biden just needs to not fuck up

I'll wait until Nov 3rd. hillary had what, a 95% chance of winning or something? all the polls said this same stuff in 2016, did they not?

Not really....the national poll showing Hillary by 2% was dead on but we use the electoral college so popular vote doesn't count.

Remember that Comey did his little "we are again reviewing emails" letter about a week before the election. The polls didn't have time to adjust for that bullshit.

The polling was very accurate except for WI, PA and MI....Hillary lost those three states by a combined 77,000 votes. Meaning about 38,000 people may have changed their vote from HC to tRump and gave him the election.

I think it was more like a 70% chance. But this is starting to eerily similar to 2016. "Trump is sinking; nobody likes him; he's going to lose" is the new "Trump's and idiot; he's totally unqualified; he's going to lose."

well he does have a record now. That makes it a big difference. Right now it's not a choice, it's a referendum. That's why the polls are so good. The objective is to keep it that way.

HughFreakingDillon · June 2020

Biden

in other words....keep biden away from a microphone. lol

pjl44 · June 2020

I'm sitting this one out

HughFreakingDillon said:

in other words....keep biden away from a microphone. lol

And a freshly washed/styled head of hair

mrussel1 · June 2020

Biden

So long as Trump keeps shooting himself, there's no reason to get in front of the skis. That would be my advice to anyone. Post convention, he should be out much more.

Lerxst1992 · June 2020

JimmyV said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

Some key differences in 2020-
Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year.

Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

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