Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

Ledbetterman10

Biden

This is good. And stuff like "Trump doesn't want more testing because he doesn't want the high numbers to make him look bad" is spot-on, and people know it, and that's why Biden's killing him in the polls....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FuJi86ouAc

HughFreakingDillon

Biden

How anyone can claim that biden is in cognitive decline after watching that is a fucking moron. 

I'M LOOKING AT YOU JOE ROGAN

Gern Blansten

Biden

HughFreakingDillon said:

How anyone can claim that biden is in cognitive decline after watching that is a fucking moron. 

I'M LOOKING AT YOU JOE ROGAN

exactly...everyone makes mistakes but some are clearly worse than others.  If someone were to point out Biden's "error" he would immediately correct himself.  Trump either pushes forward with the error or has his staff change the world to make his error somewhat factual.

RYME

Name 2 of you favorite Joe Biden accomplishments.

JimmyV

Biden

Lerxst1992 said:

JimmyV said:

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Lerxst1992 said:

JimmyV said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

Some key differences in 2020-
Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 

But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.

Maybe. That was certainly a factor, but I have a hard time believing Comey alone explains Silver's map versus what we saw on election night. 

except for those three states Silver was right....wasn't he?

He also had North Carolina and Florida leaning towards Clinton. Easier to believe Comey tipped those two states than it is MI, WI, or PA. 

This might explain 2016 more than anything else. This was the other day in Louisville. They had every polling place closed except one, which caused long lines. Then they locked the door at 6pm. Thankfully a judge intervened.

This was easy to fight. It was one state in a primary. The media had no trouble putting a spotlight on it. This stuff is much tougher to find in a presidential election with everyone voting. And we should include all the dirty tricks: voting ID where military cards work but U of WI did not. “Cleansing” the voting rolls in the inner cities. And on and on.

lets not forget why certain states the polling was off 5%.

Which is even more reason to be skeptical of polls today. If they are based on a happy fantasy that all respondents will breeze safely and healthily into properly equipped polling stations where they will encounter no obstacles, they are not based on reality.

Ledbetterman10

Biden

RYME said:

Name 2 of you favorite Joe Biden accomplishments.

-1994 Crime Bill
-Overseeing the economic recovery following the 2008 recession

Name two of your favorite Donald Trump accomplishments.

Gern Blansten

Biden

RYME said:

Name 2 of you favorite Joe Biden accomplishments.

1. Being part of a scandal free admin for Obama's first term
2. Being part of a scandal free admin for Obama's second term

JimmyV

Biden

Gern Blansten said:

RYME said:

Name 2 of you favorite Joe Biden accomplishments.

1. Being part of a scandal free admin for Obama's first term
2. Being part of a scandal free admin for Obama's second term

Gern Blansten said:

RYME said:

Name 2 of you favorite Joe Biden accomplishments.

1. Being part of a scandal free admin for Obama's first term
2. Being part of a scandal free admin for Obama's second term

This response is GOLD.

mrussel1

Biden

RYME said:

Name 2 of you favorite Joe Biden accomplishments.

He pushed through Obamacare in the Senate.  He pushed through Dodd-Frank in the Senate.  

Remember, every president needs a VP, chief of staff, someone that has relationships on the Hill to push through their agenda.  

Halifax2TheMax

RYME said:

Name 2 of you favorite Joe Biden accomplishments.

The Violence Against Women Act and Shepparding the ACA through the senate and getting it passed.

Actually having and expressing empathy and sympathy.

Maintaining and having a soul. 

The Juggler

Biden

Hahaha.....Trump administration announces they are trying to get rid of Obamacare again. They announce this on a day where a new poll shows close to 60% support the program and we're in the middle of a global pandemic.

It's almost as if Trump doesn't want to win.

pjl44

I'm sitting this one out

Semi-regular reminder that "accomplishments" is always a troll-ish argument that shouldn't be dignified with a response. In this case, if you need Joe Biden's record go read Wikipedia before engaging others in a political discussion.

I would vote for someone with no legislative record and good ideas over someone who shepherded a bunch of bad legislation.

mrussel1

Biden

The Juggler said:

Hahaha.....Trump administration announces they are trying to get rid of Obamacare again. They announce this on a day where a new poll shows close to 60% support the program and we're in the middle of a global pandemic.

It's almost as if Trump doesn't want to win.

That's what I was thinking.  But it really goes to the point that he has no political instinct other than to hide in his base.  They aren't even trying to expand their coalition anymore.  It's going to be about turnout for him.  

mrussel1

Biden

pjl44 said:

Semi-regular reminder that "accomplishments" is always a troll-ish argument that shouldn't be dignified with a response. In this case, if you need Joe Biden's record go read Wikipedia before engaging others in a political discussion.

I would vote for someone with no legislative record and good ideas over someone who shepherded a bunch of bad legislation.

You're right of course.  But at the same time, it's hard to resist.  So this is the third 'person' that has asked me this question just this morning.  I was thinking it was odd, until I read that during a Hannity/Cuban interview yesterday, Hannity was making the 'no accomplishments' case.  So there you go. Sean is the thought leader. 

The Juggler

Biden

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Hahaha.....Trump administration announces they are trying to get rid of Obamacare again. They announce this on a day where a new poll shows close to 60% support the program and we're in the middle of a global pandemic.

It's almost as if Trump doesn't want to win.

That's what I was thinking.  But it really goes to the point that he has no political instinct other than to hide in his base.  They aren't even trying to expand their coalition anymore.  It's going to be about turnout for him.  

Saw an interview with James Carville last night and he was saying he thinks the odds are greater that Trump resigns than losing the election. I sincerely doubt that will happen and I couldn't quite tell if he was being totally serious or not but it got me thinking...

Would you rather Trump resign in disgrace in which he'll likely make up an excuse....or would you rather him lose bigly to Biden?

mrussel1

Biden

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Hahaha.....Trump administration announces they are trying to get rid of Obamacare again. They announce this on a day where a new poll shows close to 60% support the program and we're in the middle of a global pandemic.

It's almost as if Trump doesn't want to win.

That's what I was thinking.  But it really goes to the point that he has no political instinct other than to hide in his base.  They aren't even trying to expand their coalition anymore.  It's going to be about turnout for him.  

Saw an interview with James Carville last night and he was saying he thinks the odds are greater that Trump resigns than losing the election. I sincerely doubt that will happen and I couldn't quite tell if he was being totally serious or not but it got me thinking...

Would you rather Trump resign in disgrace in which he'll likely make up an excuse....or would you rather him lose bigly to Biden?

Lose... but I'm a risk manager so I would be thrilled for him to resign and not risk an election disaster.  Bird in the hand...

Ledbetterman10

Biden

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Hahaha.....Trump administration announces they are trying to get rid of Obamacare again. They announce this on a day where a new poll shows close to 60% support the program and we're in the middle of a global pandemic.

It's almost as if Trump doesn't want to win.

That's what I was thinking.  But it really goes to the point that he has no political instinct other than to hide in his base.  They aren't even trying to expand their coalition anymore.  It's going to be about turnout for him.  

Saw an interview with James Carville last night and he was saying he thinks the odds are greater that Trump resigns than losing the election. I sincerely doubt that will happen and I couldn't quite tell if he was being totally serious or not but it got me thinking...

Would you rather Trump resign in disgrace in which he'll likely make up an excuse....or would you rather him lose bigly to Biden?

You're in the right ballpark, but I think he said that he thinks Trump may not run for re-election, not resign. And I guess I can see that: Trump saying that he got screwed by Covoid and it's not fair and so he's just going to finish out his term and go grab pussies. I can see that. No way he'll resign. He'd spend his lame duck months just trying to ruin whatever there is left to ruin. 

The Juggler

Biden

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Hahaha.....Trump administration announces they are trying to get rid of Obamacare again. They announce this on a day where a new poll shows close to 60% support the program and we're in the middle of a global pandemic.

It's almost as if Trump doesn't want to win.

That's what I was thinking.  But it really goes to the point that he has no political instinct other than to hide in his base.  They aren't even trying to expand their coalition anymore.  It's going to be about turnout for him.  

Saw an interview with James Carville last night and he was saying he thinks the odds are greater that Trump resigns than losing the election. I sincerely doubt that will happen and I couldn't quite tell if he was being totally serious or not but it got me thinking...

Would you rather Trump resign in disgrace in which he'll likely make up an excuse....or would you rather him lose bigly to Biden?

You're in the right ballpark, but I think he said that he thinks Trump may not run for re-election, not resign. And I guess I can see that: Trump saying that he got screwed by Covoid and it's not fair and so he's just going to finish out his term and go grab pussies. I can see that. No way he'll resign. He'd spend his lame duck months just trying to ruin whatever there is left to ruin. 

Oh okay. Yeah I could see that. 

Fuck I wish this election was 4 days from now and not 4 months!

OnWis97

Biden

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Hahaha.....Trump administration announces they are trying to get rid of Obamacare again. They announce this on a day where a new poll shows close to 60% support the program and we're in the middle of a global pandemic.

It's almost as if Trump doesn't want to win.

That's what I was thinking.  But it really goes to the point that he has no political instinct other than to hide in his base.  They aren't even trying to expand their coalition anymore.  It's going to be about turnout for him.  

Saw an interview with James Carville last night and he was saying he thinks the odds are greater that Trump resigns than losing the election. I sincerely doubt that will happen and I couldn't quite tell if he was being totally serious or not but it got me thinking...

Would you rather Trump resign in disgrace in which he'll likely make up an excuse....or would you rather him lose bigly to Biden?

I'll take either. I want him going out disgracefully in some way...and by disgracefully, I mean not by dying or by running out his second term.  Obviously, he cannot be removed through impeachment or the 25th, so that leaves resigning or losing the re-election.  If I had the choice for him to resign right now or not, I'd say "yes" because I still think he's going to win.  And has anyone besides Nixon resigned?  He'd be in a very small club.

The more I think about it, the more I have a preference to resigning.  Nixon is remembered as disgraceful.  George Bush the First is just a guy that lost his reelection because he couldn't compete with Clinton's personality. I think a Trump resignation would be a bigger long-term stain on this time than a Trump loss, even a big loss.

But that's why I don't want him dying; because then he'd almost be a martyr (imagine the right-wing chorus of "they killed him by being so mean to him").  I want him dragged out or crawling out with his tail between his legs.  It's important that he not be president, but it's almost as important that as time passes, his being president is remembered with shame and embarrassment and that "Trump" is spoken the way "Nixon" is.

The Juggler

Biden

I think Bush 41 lost more so because of the recession (that started to end before left office, by the way), "read my lips,"  and Ross Perot getting almost 20% of the vote. Clinton's personality definitely made a difference, though--especially in the debates. But 30 years later, I think most agree, history looks back on his presidency much more kindly than it did back then. I happen to think he was a great president. 


I kind of want Trump to lose in a landslide of historic proportions as opposed to resigning. Him losing worse than any other incumbent would be pretty satisfying with how hard he worked to further divide us all. It would be ironic that the country rose up together to kick his fat ass to the curb.