The coronavirus
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Now also covered on international site unherd:
Swedish Professor Johan Giesecke has given a follow-up interview to the main Swedish broadsheet, Svenska Dagbladet, in which he responds to Professor Neil Ferguson’s interview on UnHerd: “I know [Ferguson] a little and he is normally quite arrogant, but I have never seen him as tense and nervous as during that interview,” he said.
Giesecke stands by his fundamentally different assessment of the threat of the Covid-19 threat:
Ferguson modified quite a few of the straightforward statements [from his report], but still seems to think that the lethality is somewhere at just under one percent, while I think it is actually much lower, perhaps as low as 0.1%.- JOHAN GIESECKEHe flatly rejects Professor Ferguson’s prediction that deaths in Sweden will continue to rise.
No, on the contrary, I think the number will go down — although it may tick up slightly when we get an outbreak in West Götaland or Skåne [provinces of Sweden that have so far been less badly affected].- JOHAN GIESECKEChallenged on the apparent success of New Zealand in eliminating the virus completely, with a highly interventionist approach, Professor Giesecke asked whether that will really look like success in the long term:
Yes, it seems they have [suppressed the virus completely]. But what are they going to do now? To keep the country virus free, they will have to keep their borders closed. Everyone travelling in must be quarantined for 14 days before being admitted to the country, and if no good vaccine arrives, New Zealand will have to keep that quarantine for a long time. A very long time…- JOHAN GIESECKE"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
DewieCox said:
Confirmation bias, branded and bottled.F Me In The Brain said:Why would anyone want to go to one of those sites?
Fuck those people, at this point.
Not sure what you are saying there, but people who comment below new stories on social media and on libertarian / conservative sites are not anything I want to read at this point.
I certainly don't want to read them from sites that are specifically liberal, either.
I barely want to see the comments many days on the message board of a rock band when it comes to politics, never mind sites where that is the sole purpose for their existing....to promote their political agendas.The love he receives is the love that is saved0 -
Ok, so I listened and transcribed the relevant portion so that those who might be following along can have an accurate view...what dreams said:
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/29/847732044/doctors-find-some-younger-covid-19-patients-suffer-serious-strokesrgambs said:
That is untrue. Dr Makko (spelling?) did not lie.what dreams said:Here is the letter to the NEJM regarding the FIVE stroke patients at Mt Sinai.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009787query=featured_coronavirus
Edit: when you click on link, you will be redirected, letter is three links down at this writing.
It turns out three of them did have preexisting conditions: one had suffered another mild stroke previous to Co-Vid. One was discovered to have previously undiagnosed diabetes while being treated for Covid, another had hypertension and hyperlipidemia.Two of them said what I suggested earlier, based on prior reading -- they delayed going to hospital with stroke symptoms because of coVid fears.
Remarkably, when interviewed on NPR this morning and asked about underlying conditions connected to these cases, the doctor flat out LIED and said NO. So, I go to the letter mentioned on NPR to read his report myself, simply out of curiosity, and see facts in his own report that counter the LIE he told on the radio. Unbelievable.
There is a footnote in the letter regarding a 5% incidence of related strokes in Wuhan. Makes me wonder about lies being told everywhere.
He was speaking about the 7x increase in stroke occurance that's been observed, and making a general assessment that overall, they did not have the expected usual underlying conditions that would precede a severe stroke.
Your desire to see the media as inherently dishonest and alarmist is skewing your perception.
It's one thing to distrust the media, but you should take a breathe and reassess before you throw medical professionals under the bus.
40% = 5, not 4.8, remember?
7x, he says (out of no baseline number provided)
"About half" he says (of no total patients given)
Statistics never tell the whole story, and they mostly serve to confuse average people who don't know how to question them. And to @oftenreading, you're right, I forgot to extrapolate to the population at large in my denominator in my original post on this issue.
If 3/5 in the report I link where preexisting conditions DO exist is extrapolated to the "about half" he discusses in this article -- does that equal the 5% Wuhan reports? Can we go there instead of confusing everyone?
And it is absolutely true when he said NO on preexisting conditions.
I'm not throwing him under the bus. He could just tell America that there are unknown numbers of you walking around with diabetes and don't even know it. If you had a stroke before, you might have another one. Get your blood pressure under control. Forget CoVid, and go to the emergency room at the first sign of a stroke.
The discussion makes it seem like half the people who get CoVid will have a stroke, and it's just not fucking true.
I have one doctor, one, whom I trust with my life. He helped me beat cancer, after a previous doctor ignored my reported, and well-known, obvious symptoms of it for years. She even missed the damned lump in my neck, for Chist sake, when she checked my lymph nodes on a routine exam.
You know the first thing this trusted doctor told me every time I had to make a treatment decision? "There are no guarantees in medicine."
His exact words were:
"We saw a 7x increase in the number of patients in their 30s and 40s who were presenting with severe strokes, and those patients did not have many (note, he didn't say "any") of the typical risk factors we worry about for stroke. This immediately alerted us that it's likely the disease has a component that's causing clots and potentially putting people at increased risk for stroke, but also other diseases caused by clots... During the peak of the surge of Coronavirus in NYC we saw a doubling of all of the strokes, overall that we saw, and what we noticed was that over half of the patients were positive for COVID-19, and those patients behaved very different, looked very different than the normal stroke population. They looked younger, they were more likely to be men, things that made us realize it appears very strongly that there's an association between Coronavirus and having these strokes and forming these blood clots.
Interviewer: Have you seen enough such patients to be sure that this isn't just a coincidence?
We have. So, our initial urgent communication to the NEJM, which has just come out, was more of an alert, it was only 5 patients that were very young, but it was such a stark contrast that it drew our attention. We've now analysed all of the strokes seen over that period and there's clearly a strong association identified."
Now, why I bothered to do that, and this is not meant personally toward you alone, but more generally toward an attitude expressed here recently to which you seem to be a party...
The criticism is always put forward that the media should just give the facts and not interpretations. It's the interpretations that verge into opinion and people get all up in arms over biased media. But this right here shows the folly in that, you heard a report that gives the facts (as known) and you provided your own (incorrect) interpretation of what was being said according to your own confirmation biases. So the media is damned if they do and damned if they don't and the truth is lost in the mix either way?
The discussion, in no way, made it sound like half the people who get Covid will have a stroke. The discussion made it sound like half the people who had a stroke had Covid, and that's a HUGE difference.
You said yourself that people don't understand the significance of statistics, so do we want the media to interpret the data for us, or do we not?Monkey Driven, Call this Living?0 -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html
Incredibly fast to pump out a vaccine. Crazy if this comes out this early and actually works.0 -
PJNB said:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html
Incredibly fast to pump out a vaccine. Crazy if this comes out this early and actually works.
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Jokes aside, that's great news if these things are effective. Would be great to have one of the earlier ones available domestically.0
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U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests
Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
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Thanks. How is everything going for you and your family in the UK? Coping with it all?lastexitlondon said:I think you are a decent guy for what its worth. S.C
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
Interesting findings regarding the airborne qualities of the virus. It looks like we should know within a week or two if the airborne virus particles are infectious or not. Let's hope not.
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“It kind of emphasizes the importance of avoiding small confined spaces,” Dr. Marr said.bbiggs said:Interesting findings regarding the airborne qualities of the virus. It looks like we should know within a week or two if the airborne virus particles are infectious or not. Let's hope not.
Would a classroom of 28 students and myself be considered a small confined space?I'll ride the wave where it takes me......0 -
I am not violating anything. So your "apparently" is wrong.SHZA said:
Understood. But you attempted to justify apparently violating even the more relaxed guidelines of your country by saying that others should be social distancing from people in their own household, which is not something that any country in the world requires or recommends. The ability to go to a bar or restaurant while maintaining social distancing is a separate issue.Spiritual_Chaos said:
But here's my secret Cap,SHZA said:
Certainly not in the USSpiritual_Chaos said:
Have you seen anyone say you are allowed to visit a restaurant or a bar?SHZA said:
I've not seen a mandate or suggestion anywhere to maintain distance from those in your household.Spiritual_Chaos said:
But I sure hope you keep 6 feet away from everyone inside your home also right?rgambs said:
I haven't seen anyone who doesn't live in my home socially in 6 weeks. You'll find that probably more than 90% of the people posting in this thread will say the same.Spiritual_Chaos said:
Different one.rgambs said:
So, not practicing social distancing voluntarily?Spiritual_Chaos said:
Live on the opposite coast. And no. I was playing "fyra i rad" and drinking wine at a friends flat.mcgruff10 said:@Spiritual_Chaos Where you there?Sweden is shutting down bars and restaurants where people defied social distancing guidelines
Officials in Sweden ordered five Stockholm bars and restaurants to close on Sunday after the establishments failed to follow social distancing guidelines.
Sweden has taken a controversial approach to the novel coronavirus pandemic by urging people to social distance, but also allowing restaurants, schools, and businesses to stay open throughout the outbreak.Restaurants can still provide table service, but tables have to be spaced 6 feet apart to keep up with government social distancing guidelines. According to AFP, some Stockholm bars defied those guidelines over the weekend and were forced to close because of overcrowding.
Stockholm health official Per Follin told news agency TT, that four of the five bars and restaurants that were forced to close were located in Sodermalm, a trendy and bustling neighborhood of the city.
"The main problem was overcrowding, both inside the premises and outdoors," he said, according to AFP. He said that the establishments will be closed until further notice.
Authorities announced last week that they were increasing measures to enforce social distancing guidelines and that gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned.
Sweden, which has a population of 10.2 million people, has so far had 18,926 confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 2,274 deaths from the virus.
While Sweden has faced criticism over having far more deaths from the virus than its Nordic neighbors, the country's goal with limited restrictions is to reach herd immunity, meaning the majority of the population would become immune to COVID-19 through either having the virus or through a vaccine. At the moment, it's unknown if antibodies from the virus give full immunity or how long they last.
Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter, Sweden's ambassador to the US, told NPR that despite no scientific evidence, she believes herd immunity will prove to be successful.
"About 30% of people in Stockholm have reached a level of immunity," she said. "We could reach herd immunity in the capital as early as next month."
Same friend you went to lunch with or a different one?
I'm sure hoping you keep 6 feet away from your family if you have any.
social distancing at all costs or you are part of the problem. Am I right?
The rich part is that one of your Johan Savior Giesecke's biggest defenses of Sweden's lax regulations is the high level of Swedish compliance with voluntary recommendations. You've even defended this "compliance", while not complying.
I mean we have to beat this? So, you are keeping 6 feet away from your wife, brothers/sisters, children etc?
I don't live in the US.
So anyone blaming me for violating whatever and for not taking steps enough to stop the spread, should look at their own steps they are taking that are risking spreading the virus. That was my point.
Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
I thought I read about another 1-2 places that said somewhat similar things, though they thought more like Dec/Jan for emergency use and spring 2021 for regular. This moves the time table up significantly. I knew these vaccines would be discovered and approved way earlier than 12-18 months. That was just talking normal vaccines in an abnormal world.PJNB said:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html
Incredibly fast to pump out a vaccine. Crazy if this comes out this early and actually works.
Good for them.hippiemom = goodness0 -
Dunno, but sounds like hell.mcgruff10 said:
“It kind of emphasizes the importance of avoiding small confined spaces,” Dr. Marr said.bbiggs said:Interesting findings regarding the airborne qualities of the virus. It looks like we should know within a week or two if the airborne virus particles are infectious or not. Let's hope not.
Would a classroom of 28 students and myself be considered a small confined space?
hippiemom = goodness0 -
Oxford is the only other one I've seen touting this timeline. Like you said, most are estimating very late this year or early next.cincybearcat said:
I thought I read about another 1-2 places that said somewhat similar things, though they thought more like Dec/Jan for emergency use and spring 2021 for regular. This moves the time table up significantly. I knew these vaccines would be discovered and approved way earlier than 12-18 months. That was just talking normal vaccines in an abnormal world.PJNB said:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html
Incredibly fast to pump out a vaccine. Crazy if this comes out this early and actually works.
Good for them.0 -
Oh it can be! lolcincybearcat said:
Dunno, but sounds like hell.mcgruff10 said:
“It kind of emphasizes the importance of avoiding small confined spaces,” Dr. Marr said.bbiggs said:Interesting findings regarding the airborne qualities of the virus. It looks like we should know within a week or two if the airborne virus particles are infectious or not. Let's hope not.
Would a classroom of 28 students and myself be considered a small confined space?I'll ride the wave where it takes me......0 -
I consult my financial decisions with Cowherd, so this feels right.Bentleyspop said:
Sports talk radio hostmrussel1 said:Who the f is Clay Travis?
Definitely a virus and/or pandemic expert to be listened to.0 -
I'm going to go out on a limb and say, yes. It's going to be very interesting to see how classrooms are handled in the Fall.mcgruff10 said:
“It kind of emphasizes the importance of avoiding small confined spaces,” Dr. Marr said.bbiggs said:Interesting findings regarding the airborne qualities of the virus. It looks like we should know within a week or two if the airborne virus particles are infectious or not. Let's hope not.
Would a classroom of 28 students and myself be considered a small confined space?
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What normal vaccines take 12-18 months to develop? I _believe_ Giesecke said that 18 months would pretty much be a world record in getting a vaccine out. I'm no vaccine expert, what normal vaccines take 12-18 months?cincybearcat said:
I knew these vaccines would be discovered and approved way earlier than 12-18 months. That was just talking normal vaccines in an abnormal world.
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
You should be more worried about being in the lunchroom with your colleague than in the classroom. G says.mcgruff10 said:
“It kind of emphasizes the importance of avoiding small confined spaces,” Dr. Marr said.bbiggs said:Interesting findings regarding the airborne qualities of the virus. It looks like we should know within a week or two if the airborne virus particles are infectious or not. Let's hope not.
Would a classroom of 28 students and myself be considered a small confined space?"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
How about when I am on duty in a lunchroom with 400 students?Spiritual_Chaos said:
You should be more worried about being in the lunchroom with your colleague than in the classroom. G says.mcgruff10 said:
“It kind of emphasizes the importance of avoiding small confined spaces,” Dr. Marr said.bbiggs said:Interesting findings regarding the airborne qualities of the virus. It looks like we should know within a week or two if the airborne virus particles are infectious or not. Let's hope not.
Would a classroom of 28 students and myself be considered a small confined space?I'll ride the wave where it takes me......0
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