Having schools closed or open doesn't have to factor into the difference.
It made a big difference with the Spanish flu.
Do school closings help limit the spread of influenza? It’s a tough question to answer definitively, but at best they appear to have a moderate effect in reducing transmission, if—and this is important—the rate of illness from influenza in children is high compared with adults. One unusual feature of COVID-19 is that children seem to be largely spared from illness. This means that school closings would do less to reduce its spread than the precedents of 1918 might suggest.
Another feature of school closings must be taken into account, and it goes beyond the fact that many parents would need to stay at home to take care of their children. As the weather warms up, children will do what they always do. They will climb trees or chase basketballs into busy streets, and a few unlucky ones will end up in emergency rooms with serious injuries—or worse. Like medications, public-health interventions have unwanted side effects. While it is relatively easy to decide to close down a school system, it takes wisdom to understand the ramifications of a choice that will take millions of children out of relatively safe environments and put them into others, where the risks are unknown. Pity the public servant who has to make that call.
Once states close their schools, or theaters, or public gatherings, they will be forced to grapple with another problem. Public closings cannot last forever. They must, sooner or later, be lifted. And that’s when the story gets more complicated. “Interventions may be capable of significantly reducing the rate of disease transmission so long as they remain in effect,” a team of researchers wrote in 2007. But while the mortality rates declined during closures, once they were relaxed, the influenza virus found fertile new territory.
In fact, cities that reduced their rates of transmission with aggressive public-health measures experienced a large bounce and a second wave of infection. Public closings do not necessarily keep infections out of our communities. They may only delay their arrival. But that delay may itself be crucial. When people who are sick arrive within a short period, they can overwhelm hospitals and clinics—and quickly use up essential supplies. When that same number of sick people is spread out over a longer period of time, health-care providers are more likely to be able to cope with the demand.
So, I do not know how emperor Trump does it -- but in Sweden the PHA are doing two things
1) Making sure our healthcare system doesn't collaps -- the virus isn't going away, it's here to stay -- so what do we need to do to keep the curve flat and the health care system work? Today -- it is stressed but it is not collapsing. So why should we delay it?
2) Take a holistic approach to public health. What happens if schools are closed? What happens to the health care system when nurses and staff can't work anymore because they have to stay home with young children? What about kids coming from troubled homes where school is a safe place from abuse etc? !! HOLISTIC APPROACH TO PUBLIC HEALTH !! The time spent in school when young, has a huge part in shaping a young persons life and Sweden is cautious about disrupting this.
3) Has there been any huge outbreaks in schools or that can be traced back to schools/children? Swedish officials say -- no. No signs of this.
4) If something changes, at a specific school or in general other restrictions could apply. But the important thing is to flatten the curve to make health care cope -- and so far it does.
If saving lifes from covid19 and any other considerations and problems are a npn-factor -- then I take it New Jersey and the rest of the US will be completely locked down until a vaccine is out on the market? Schools will never open?
Can children, with mild or no illness, transmit the Coronavirus to others?
Yes, they can.
“This is the big issue,” says Roberts. “Many think that children are at low risk and we don’t need to worry about them, and yes, that is true for children who don’t have chronic medical conditions like immunodeficiencies. What people are forgetting is that children are probably one of the main routes by which this infection is going to spread throughout the community.”
The coronavirus is transmitted from an infected person to a non-infected person through direct contact with the respiratory droplets of an infected person (generated through coughing and sneezing), and touching surfaces contaminated with the virus. This means that children infected with the coronavirus, with very mild or no illness, can transmit the infection to others, especially family members and elderly relatives.
“Children with very mild disease are probably going to be one of the major contributors to spreading the virus across the population,” says Roberts. “This is why schools closing are crucial to reducing the rate at which the pandemic spreads across the UK.”
Who is Roberts?
And, how long do you think schools should be closed then? Untill a vaccin comes out? What about other parts of society. In society the diease spreads. So total lockdown? And for how long?
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
0
brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,252
So again, you are saying that you should be on total lockdown untill a vaccin is out?
I don't think that's what he's saying. First off, there never has been a total lock down.
Not in Sweden either. Well, then.
Either way, how to not be as locked down and keep as many people safe is the great dilemma we're faced with. That's hitting home big time. My business is shut down as is my wife's and her business account is nearly drained already. It's unnerving as all get out.
“We are not in the containment phase,” said Sweden’s chief state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, last month. “We are in the mitigation phase.”
What Tegnell means is that the coronavirus is all over the world now, and, without a vaccine or a massive outbreak that brings about herd immunity, you won’t get rid of it. Even if you do what China did and lock down so hard that you eradicate the virus within your borders, it will return as soon as you allow any travel in and out of your country to resume. So Sweden has based its policies on two premises: (1) The coronavirus can only be managed, not suppressed. Short of going full Wuhan on the entire planet, we’ll have to live with it. (2) People won’t tolerate severe lockdown for more than a month or two, since boredom, isolation, and economic desperation will get overwhelming.
With these premises in mind, Sweden has pumped the brakes instead of slamming on them. You close school for older kids, but you keep grade school going, because evidence so far suggests that younger children are not a major cause of transmission for the novel coronavirus. (The opposite is true of influenza: Kids are the big spreaders.) You prohibit standing room and shoulder-to-shoulder seating in popular bars and restaurants, but you allow them to keep operating with greater space between tables and customers. You encourage people to keep a physical distance among one another, but you don’t command it.
The question, then, isn’t whether Sweden is going to see more deaths from the coronavirus in the short term than it would with a total lockdown. It obviously will. The question is whether it’s going to see exponentially more cases. So far, that hasn’t happened. With unchecked spreading of the virus, a country could expect to see a mortality rate that was 10 or 100 or 1,000 times higher than that of a country with strict controls in place. But Sweden has a mortality rate that’s only about twice as high as that of Denmark, which has a strict lockdown (0.01% of the population dead versus about 0.005% of the population dead), and only half that of France. Its hospitals are challenged but not overwhelmed. Between the unhappy poles of shutting down society entirely or eliminating COVID-19 deaths entirely, it may have found a balance it can live with. /.../
Still, even if apolitical authorities are running the show in Sweden, one might ask—or I might ask—why not start strong and then loosen up—with, say, a two-week lockdown and then a relaxation, just in case of an unseen wave? I posed this question to infectious disease specialist Johan Giesecke, who has held the post that Anders Tegnell holds today and has been among those advising the government. “I’m not sure it would change very much,” Giesecke told me. “You still have the same exponential curve when you stop the lockdown. You shift the curve two weeks to the left, but you still get the curve.” Also, Giesecke noted, even two weeks of lockdown would cause a lot of disruption to social and economic life. “I have a son who is a physician in one of the big hospitals in Stockholm,” Giesecke said. “The nurse who is head of the E.R. there prays every morning that the government does not close the schools, because then she loses half her staff.”
Having schools closed or open doesn't have to factor into the difference.
It made a big difference with the Spanish flu.
Do school closings help limit the spread of influenza? It’s a tough question to answer definitively, but at best they appear to have a moderate effect in reducing transmission, if—and this is important—the rate of illness from influenza in children is high compared with adults. One unusual feature of COVID-19 is that children seem to be largely spared from illness. This means that school closings would do less to reduce its spread than the precedents of 1918 might suggest.
Another feature of school closings must be taken into account, and it goes beyond the fact that many parents would need to stay at home to take care of their children. As the weather warms up, children will do what they always do. They will climb trees or chase basketballs into busy streets, and a few unlucky ones will end up in emergency rooms with serious injuries—or worse. Like medications, public-health interventions have unwanted side effects. While it is relatively easy to decide to close down a school system, it takes wisdom to understand the ramifications of a choice that will take millions of children out of relatively safe environments and put them into others, where the risks are unknown. Pity the public servant who has to make that call.
Once states close their schools, or theaters, or public gatherings, they will be forced to grapple with another problem. Public closings cannot last forever. They must, sooner or later, be lifted. And that’s when the story gets more complicated. “Interventions may be capable of significantly reducing the rate of disease transmission so long as they remain in effect,” a team of researchers wrote in 2007. But while the mortality rates declined during closures, once they were relaxed, the influenza virus found fertile new territory.
In fact, cities that reduced their rates of transmission with aggressive public-health measures experienced a large bounce and a second wave of infection. Public closings do not necessarily keep infections out of our communities. They may only delay their arrival. But that delay may itself be crucial. When people who are sick arrive within a short period, they can overwhelm hospitals and clinics—and quickly use up essential supplies. When that same number of sick people is spread out over a longer period of time, health-care providers are more likely to be able to cope with the demand.
So, I do not know how emperor Trump does it -- but in Sweden the PHA are doing two things
1) Making sure our healthcare system doesn't collaps -- the virus isn't going away, it's here to stay -- so what do we need to do to keep the curve flat and the health care system work? Today -- it is stressed but it is not collapsing. So why should we delay it?
2) Take a holistic approach to public health. What happens if schools are closed? What happens to the health care system when nurses and staff can't work anymore because they have to stay home with young children? What about kids coming from troubled homes where school is a safe place from abuse etc? !! HOLISTIC APPROACH TO PUBLIC HEALTH !! The time spent in school when young, has a huge part in shaping a young persons life and Sweden is cautious about disrupting this.
3) Has there been any huge outbreaks in schools or that can be traced back to schools/children? Swedish officials say -- no. No signs of this.
4) If something changes, at a specific school or in general other restrictions could apply. But the important thing is to flatten the curve to make health care cope -- and so far it does.
If saving lifes from covid19 and any other considerations and problems are a npn-factor -- then I take it New Jersey and the rest of the US will be completely locked down until a vaccine is out on the market? Schools will never open?
Can children, with mild or no illness, transmit the Coronavirus to others?
Yes, they can.
“This is the big issue,” says Roberts. “Many think that children are at low risk and we don’t need to worry about them, and yes, that is true for children who don’t have chronic medical conditions like immunodeficiencies. What people are forgetting is that children are probably one of the main routes by which this infection is going to spread throughout the community.”
The coronavirus is transmitted from an infected person to a non-infected person through direct contact with the respiratory droplets of an infected person (generated through coughing and sneezing), and touching surfaces contaminated with the virus. This means that children infected with the coronavirus, with very mild or no illness, can transmit the infection to others, especially family members and elderly relatives.
“Children with very mild disease are probably going to be one of the major contributors to spreading the virus across the population,” says Roberts. “This is why schools closing are crucial to reducing the rate at which the pandemic spreads across the UK.”
Who is Roberts?
And, how long do you think schools should be closed then? Untill a vaccin comes out? What about other parts of society. In society the diease spreads. So total lockdown? And for how long?
That's the million dollar question. What I do know is that we are still learning about the virus and it's transmission. We are still collecting data about kids and their role in this. Kids in general aren't widely tested, certainly not in this country, because testing has been so focused on acutely symptomatic adults. So before I made that kind of decision I'd want actual data. Secondly, I know that when my kids were school aged I'd get sick every goddamned fall. My kids grew up, moved out, and no more fall cold and flu for me. Kids are little disease vectors. I would certainly have school districts work on more remote/distance learning at this point. Some districts around me already have it diaied in, and have for some time. Others are just now figuring it out. Still others are scrambling for resources to make sure kids have the equipment and connectivity needed for distance learning. So school doesn't have to end, and education doesn't have to stop just because those little germ magnets aren't all in one place at the same time. But without sufficient data, I wouldn't invite 30 of them to a small classroom to expose at-risk staff and teachers, to share it among one another, and to return home to parents and grandparents to spread it around.
"I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
Having schools closed or open doesn't have to factor into the difference.
It made a big difference with the Spanish flu.
Do school closings help limit the spread of influenza? It’s a tough question to answer definitively, but at best they appear to have a moderate effect in reducing transmission, if—and this is important—the rate of illness from influenza in children is high compared with adults. One unusual feature of COVID-19 is that children seem to be largely spared from illness. This means that school closings would do less to reduce its spread than the precedents of 1918 might suggest.
Another feature of school closings must be taken into account, and it goes beyond the fact that many parents would need to stay at home to take care of their children. As the weather warms up, children will do what they always do. They will climb trees or chase basketballs into busy streets, and a few unlucky ones will end up in emergency rooms with serious injuries—or worse. Like medications, public-health interventions have unwanted side effects. While it is relatively easy to decide to close down a school system, it takes wisdom to understand the ramifications of a choice that will take millions of children out of relatively safe environments and put them into others, where the risks are unknown. Pity the public servant who has to make that call.
Once states close their schools, or theaters, or public gatherings, they will be forced to grapple with another problem. Public closings cannot last forever. They must, sooner or later, be lifted. And that’s when the story gets more complicated. “Interventions may be capable of significantly reducing the rate of disease transmission so long as they remain in effect,” a team of researchers wrote in 2007. But while the mortality rates declined during closures, once they were relaxed, the influenza virus found fertile new territory.
In fact, cities that reduced their rates of transmission with aggressive public-health measures experienced a large bounce and a second wave of infection. Public closings do not necessarily keep infections out of our communities. They may only delay their arrival. But that delay may itself be crucial. When people who are sick arrive within a short period, they can overwhelm hospitals and clinics—and quickly use up essential supplies. When that same number of sick people is spread out over a longer period of time, health-care providers are more likely to be able to cope with the demand.
So, I do not know how emperor Trump does it -- but in Sweden the PHA are doing two things
1) Making sure our healthcare system doesn't collaps -- the virus isn't going away, it's here to stay -- so what do we need to do to keep the curve flat and the health care system work? Today -- it is stressed but it is not collapsing. So why should we delay it?
2) Take a holistic approach to public health. What happens if schools are closed? What happens to the health care system when nurses and staff can't work anymore because they have to stay home with young children? What about kids coming from troubled homes where school is a safe place from abuse etc? !! HOLISTIC APPROACH TO PUBLIC HEALTH !! The time spent in school when young, has a huge part in shaping a young persons life and Sweden is cautious about disrupting this.
3) Has there been any huge outbreaks in schools or that can be traced back to schools/children? Swedish officials say -- no. No signs of this.
4) If something changes, at a specific school or in general other restrictions could apply. But the important thing is to flatten the curve to make health care cope -- and so far it does.
If saving lifes from covid19 and any other considerations and problems are a npn-factor -- then I take it New Jersey and the rest of the US will be completely locked down until a vaccine is out on the market? Schools will never open?
Can children, with mild or no illness, transmit the Coronavirus to others?
Yes, they can.
“This is the big issue,” says Roberts. “Many think that children are at low risk and we don’t need to worry about them, and yes, that is true for children who don’t have chronic medical conditions like immunodeficiencies. What people are forgetting is that children are probably one of the main routes by which this infection is going to spread throughout the community.”
The coronavirus is transmitted from an infected person to a non-infected person through direct contact with the respiratory droplets of an infected person (generated through coughing and sneezing), and touching surfaces contaminated with the virus. This means that children infected with the coronavirus, with very mild or no illness, can transmit the infection to others, especially family members and elderly relatives.
“Children with very mild disease are probably going to be one of the major contributors to spreading the virus across the population,” says Roberts. “This is why schools closing are crucial to reducing the rate at which the pandemic spreads across the UK.”
Who is Roberts?
And, how long do you think schools should be closed then? Untill a vaccin comes out? What about other parts of society. In society the diease spreads. So total lockdown? And for how long?
That's the million dollar question. What I do know is that we are still learning about the virus and it's transmission. We are still collecting data about kids and their role in this. Kids in general aren't widely tested, certainly not in this country, because testing has been so focused on acutely symptomatic adults. So before I made that kind of decision I'd want actual data. Secondly, I know that when my kids were school aged I'd get sick every goddamned fall. My kids grew up, moved out, and no more fall cold and flu for me. Kids are little disease vectors. I would certainly have school districts work on more remote/distance learning at this point. Some districts around me already have it diaied in, and have for some time. Others are just now figuring it out. Still others are scrambling for resources to make sure kids have the equipment and connectivity needed for distance learning. So school doesn't have to end, and education doesn't have to stop just because those little germ magnets aren't all in one place at the same time. But without sufficient data, I wouldn't invite 30 of them to a small classroom to expose at-risk staff and teachers, to share it among one another, and to return home to parents and grandparents to spread it around.
Swedens thing is to keep people above 70 and people who are in riskgroups isolated.
I don't know anyone who let their children or themselves meet their grandparents/older parents right now.
So how about not letting yoyr grandparents meet the disease vectors?
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
How much would "the flu" kill if we didn't protect the elder with vaccins?
I don’t have hard data on exact percentages, but there is a significant percentage of Americans that do not get an annual flu shot (vaccine). I know a LOT of people that don’t get it. This isnt like the anti-vaxxers either. The flu shot just isn’t one of those vaccines that everyone gets.
I had a routine check-in video conference with my doctor this morning. When the nurse did her pre-visit call, she asked me if I had my flu shot, which I think is a routine question. I laughed and said, "Nope, I never get a flu shot, but I'm pretty sure I will be getting this next one." She said I'll see you in September . . . I don't think she realizes I meant the corona vaccine when it comes out.
I never got a flu shot before because I'm just not someone who gets sick with colds and flu the way some people are sickly all the time. Apparently, I have a strong immune system -- part eating well, part hygiene, but I think it's because I've been exposed to so many germs from the children at my school they could use me for research on antibodies. I didn't escape the ringworm this year, though. Unfortunately I got the ringworm. I got in trouble for bleaching down my classroom after the ringworm
I can say that I am very, very worried about picking up CoVid from a child at school when we reopen. I expect a re-opening in September if the rest of the economy re-opens. We can't leave young children at home while their parents have to work. The parents in my school district by and large are construction or service workers, already struggling to pay very high rents packed in multi-family homes before they lost their jobs. I can't even fathom the suffering. My heart breaks for them. So -- even with an 80 year old mom in my home whom I'm trying to protect, I'm willing to go back in and hope for the best just so my community can get back on its feet and go to work. I'm pretty sure the school district will be responsible about it. It will be interesting to see how they decide to do it.
Note -- I'm not arguing that we kill grandma. I'm just being realistic.
37 days later my old neighbor has been charged to rehab!!! Oh yeah!!!!! Thank you to everyone for your kind words through all this. I am teary eyed as I type this.
37 days later my old neighbor has been charged to rehab!!! Oh yeah!!!!! Thank you to everyone for your kind words through all this. I am teary eyed as I type this.
37 days later my old neighbor has been charged to rehab!!! Oh yeah!!!!! Thank you to everyone for your kind words through all this. I am teary eyed as I type this.
Awesome news! Glad to hear he is heading in the right direction.
0
brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,252
37 days later my old neighbor has been charged to rehab!!! Oh yeah!!!!! Thank you to everyone for your kind words through all this. I am teary eyed as I type this.
37 days later my old neighbor has been charged to rehab!!! Oh yeah!!!!! Thank you to everyone for your kind words through all this. I am teary eyed as I type this.
Comments
And, how long do you think schools should be closed then? Untill a vaccin comes out? What about other parts of society. In society the diease spreads. So total lockdown? And for how long?
Either way, how to not be as locked down and keep as many people safe is the great dilemma we're faced with. That's hitting home big time. My business is shut down as is my wife's and her business account is nearly drained already. It's unnerving as all get out.
“We are not in the containment phase,” said Sweden’s chief state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, last month. “We are in the mitigation phase.”
With these premises in mind, Sweden has pumped the brakes instead of slamming on them. You close school for older kids, but you keep grade school going, because evidence so far suggests that younger children are not a major cause of transmission for the novel coronavirus. (The opposite is true of influenza: Kids are the big spreaders.) You prohibit standing room and shoulder-to-shoulder seating in popular bars and restaurants, but you allow them to keep operating with greater space between tables and customers. You encourage people to keep a physical distance among one another, but you don’t command it.
The question, then, isn’t whether Sweden is going to see more deaths from the coronavirus in the short term than it would with a total lockdown. It obviously will. The question is whether it’s going to see exponentially more cases. So far, that hasn’t happened. With unchecked spreading of the virus, a country could expect to see a mortality rate that was 10 or 100 or 1,000 times higher than that of a country with strict controls in place. But Sweden has a mortality rate that’s only about twice as high as that of Denmark, which has a strict lockdown (0.01% of the population dead versus about 0.005% of the population dead), and only half that of France. Its hospitals are challenged but not overwhelmed. Between the unhappy poles of shutting down society entirely or eliminating COVID-19 deaths entirely, it may have found a balance it can live with.
/.../
Still, even if apolitical authorities are running the show in Sweden, one might ask—or I might ask—why not start strong and then loosen up—with, say, a two-week lockdown and then a relaxation, just in case of an unseen wave? I posed this question to infectious disease specialist Johan Giesecke, who has held the post that Anders Tegnell holds today and has been among those advising the government. “I’m not sure it would change very much,” Giesecke told me. “You still have the same exponential curve when you stop the lockdown. You shift the curve two weeks to the left, but you still get the curve.” Also, Giesecke noted, even two weeks of lockdown would cause a lot of disruption to social and economic life. “I have a son who is a physician in one of the big hospitals in Stockholm,” Giesecke said. “The nurse who is head of the E.R. there prays every morning that the government does not close the schools, because then she loses half her staff.”
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/can-you-beat-covid-19-without-a-lockdown-sweden-is-trying
I don't know anyone who let their children or themselves meet their grandparents/older parents right now.
So how about not letting yoyr grandparents meet the disease vectors?
NEW
APPRECIATION
FOR
SUPREME LEADER
TRUMP
I never got a flu shot before because I'm just not someone who gets sick with colds and flu the way some people are sickly all the time. Apparently, I have a strong immune system -- part eating well, part hygiene, but I think it's because I've been exposed to so many germs from the children at my school they could use me for research on antibodies. I didn't escape the ringworm this year, though. Unfortunately I got the ringworm. I got in trouble for bleaching down my classroom after the ringworm
I can say that I am very, very worried about picking up CoVid from a child at school when we reopen. I expect a re-opening in September if the rest of the economy re-opens. We can't leave young children at home while their parents have to work. The parents in my school district by and large are construction or service workers, already struggling to pay very high rents packed in multi-family homes before they lost their jobs. I can't even fathom the suffering. My heart breaks for them. So -- even with an 80 year old mom in my home whom I'm trying to protect, I'm willing to go back in and hope for the best just so my community can get back on its feet and go to work. I'm pretty sure the school district will be responsible about it. It will be interesting to see how they decide to do it.
Note -- I'm not arguing that we kill grandma. I'm just being realistic.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
The dumbest people I know think he's just so smart lol
2008 Tampa - 2013 Buffalo - 2016 Tampa - 2016 Fenway II
Audioslave 2005 MSG
Fantastic! Good to hear!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/16/university-of-queensland-takes-disciplinary-action-against-pro-hong-kong-student-activist?fbclid=IwAR1i2dedZl3JUbWXXmgD-NR11cQBxHR2vgeHKNY5eRa7uK45zfnxnK5PPvU
I like this Cuomo guy.
Btw, wtf is a 'javids' or however it is spelled?