Shut out of 99% st. Louis?

cwja · January 2020

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around.

Dercheef · January 2020

mattcoz said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false.

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up.

There is nothing in there to suggest it wouldn't either.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selsected for a given show" would not really be true if this would only apply for your first priority. And again, past experience support this 100%. But please show me anything that would support the other theory.

PillowPants · January 2020

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Where in the rules did you read this?

JR86440 · January 2020

cwja said:

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around.

did you see the seating chart with the 10club tickets this go around? LOT more seats available then ever before so you are comparing apples to oranges

PillowPants · January 2020

OceansJenny said:

Dump the odds.

the odds are great - when they work
well they're great for those of us with the ability to comprehend

this time they didn't work - that's the only explanation for them all except a few showing 99 at the end
hopefully tm will own up to their mistake but i'm not holding my breath

cwja · January 2020

JR86440 said:

cwja said:

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around.

did you see the seating chart with the 10club tickets this go around? LOT more seats available then ever before so you are comparing apples to oranges

That’s why I used the GA odds...

CG658530 · January 2020

I mean, there is the rather sensible, if I do say so myself, idea concerning how the lottery works, which I stated above—an idea, I say again, I heard from a fellow forum user on this forum during the last group of US shows.

Dercheef · January 2020

cwja said:

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around.

Demand dropped significantly due to the european tour. In 2016 I knew at least a dozen people coming over from germany alone. This time there is hardly anybody even thinking about it because they all aldready have tickets for several shows. Again, this theory is based on nothing.

edit: Oh and 10c secured way more tickets this time around than they did in 2016.

cwja · January 2020

Dercheef edit: Oh and 10c secured way more tickets this time around than they did in 2016.

Again, that’s why I only compared GA odds from the same cities.

Peasant Tents · January 2020

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.

I agree with you.
Also, the idea that only 1st priority covers odds, that does not explain how some people who had shows as 4th , 5th and 6th priority in Oakland for example, got tickets while others who had it as 2nd priority (and had BA selected) didn't.

Dercheef · January 2020

cwja said:

Dercheef edit: Oh and 10c secured way more tickets this time around than they did in 2016.

Again, that’s why I only compared GA odds from the same cities.

Ok, fair enough. I still don't really think you have a strong case for your argument though.

mcgruff10 · January 2020

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request. All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets. At 57% you think more would have won tickets.

cwja · January 2020

Peasant Tents said:

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.

I agree with you.
Also, the idea that only 1st priority covers odds, that does not explain how some people who had shows as 4th , 5th and 6th priority in Oakland for example, got tickets while others who had it as 2nd priority (and had BA selected) didn't.

You’re assuming that TM/10C only screwed up one way. Pretty obvious they managed to find multiple ways of fucking up.

JBob87 · January 2020

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false.

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up.

Everyone agrees that is how it used to / should work. Clearly it did not work that way this time or people wouldn’t have gotten shut out of 99% shows.

NewfieintheUSA · January 2020

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request. All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets. At 57% you think more would have won tickets.

The odds of that happening are 7/128 (around 5.5%) assuming all picked BA or Reserved

Jason7192 · January 2020

JBob87 said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false.

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up.

Everyone agrees that is how it used to / should work. Clearly it did not work that way this time or people wouldn’t have gotten shut out of 99% shows.

Six extra words on the selection screen could have prevented so much confusion: "Odds pertain to first priority only."

mcgruff10 · January 2020

NewfieintheUSA said:

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request. All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets. At 57% you think more would have won tickets.

The odds of that happening are 7/128 (around 5.5%) assuming all picked BA or Reserved

Exactly. so weird. All definitely picked best available as their one and only choice.

Dercheef · January 2020

JBob87 said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false.

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up.

Everyone agrees that is how it used to / should work. Clearly it did not work that way this time or people wouldn’t have gotten shut out of 99% shows.

As I said there seems to be something off this time. That doesn't mean though that odds only were relevant to the #1 priority. Until now this is nothing more than a purely speculative theory.

RT85129 · January 2020

I didn't get tickets on a 3rd priority - best available to Nashville. My priority was 1) Baltimore - BA, 2) NY - BA 3) Nashville - BA. Thought with 65% odds to Baltimore and 99% odds to Nashville that I would get those, but I got zilch on my top 3.

Folks based their priorities off those stated odds. If they weren't accurate, Ticketmaster did a huge disservice to Pearl Jam fans.

incidental immortality · January 2020

JimmyV said:

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.

It's a legitimate concern. I tend to think the odds tool didn't work, but clearly something wasn't right.

If they couldn't send out e-mails why would we think the odds tool would work correctly?

Shut out of 99% st. Louis?

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