Shut out of 99% st. Louis?

Spiritual_Chaos

foriginalsin said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

This doesnt make any sense. How are the odds only for your first priority? If the odds are 99%, theyre still 99% after everyones first and second and thereafter priorities are taken into account. 

Then there would have to be different odds for everyone. Me putting in a GA ticket, with 35% chance listed, at 1st and you in 5st give different odds for both of us... so what... the odds-number listed would be some average? or for the one person putting it the lowest? Hmmmmm

I've always thought it was the odds for 1st priority-people.

amethgr8

your name was not drawn, sorry you didn't score tix this tour.

OceansJenny

Dump the odds.

D-Rod

It was always my belief that odds were for the whole show not just 1st priority.  Many people put their ticket requests in at the last minute but we never see the final odds ( at least not this time).  I’m guessing that their wasn’t many 99% when the ticket window closed. 

 Just my opinion. 

Alpine Bound

dutz054 said:

bootlegger10 said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Is that confirmed or assumed?

How it was in 2018, and it’s easy to connect the dots. 

If you have to prioritize your preferences it makes more sense than thinking you have a legitimate shot at getting tickets at 99% probability in an 18k seat arena with no Chicago show in this leg.   I don’t know why this is so hard for people to believe. 

This is 100% inaccurate!

I won Missoula GA, Seattle 2, both Boston and Chicago 1 all with priority 2 or lower and they all had well below 99% odds...

The odds are for ALL PRIORITIES. That doesn't mean there wasn't a screw up and the odds were actually wrong this time (imp they definitely were off)

on2legs

dutz054 said:

foriginalsin said:

Unless the odds dropped after the closed odds of 99%, Ireally think ticketmaster is withholding tickets.  

Here come the conspiracy theories, Ticketmaster holding tickets to sell on the resale market that isn’t supposed to exist. Let’s all wrap ourselves in aluminum foil 

Ticketmaster unquestionably has access to tickets.  I know this for a fact.  

know1

bbiggs said:

Every show I’ve put in for in the past with 99% reserved odds won. Every single time. Some of those priorities were as low as 6th priority. 99% odds were a lock in past lotteries. Not the case in this one, so there is a disconnect. 

The disconnect is that the odds finally caught up with you. 

foriginalsin

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  

wall232

I don’t think the odds updated correctly, I’ve never seen so many people lose out on a 99% chance regardless of what priority their picks were. 

bbiggs

know1 said:

bbiggs said:

Every show I’ve put in for in the past with 99% reserved odds won. Every single time. Some of those priorities were as low as 6th priority. 99% odds were a lock in past lotteries. Not the case in this one, so there is a disconnect. 

The disconnect is that the odds finally caught up with you. 

Appreciate the words of wisdom, but I scored tickets.  Was stating facts; not griping about striking out.  Try again.

mattcoz

You can't really compare it to previous years as TM is handling it now. Maybe TM uses only first priority for the odds.

JimmyV

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  

It's a legitimate concern. I tend to think the odds tool didn't work, but clearly something wasn't right. 

Jason7192

mattcoz said:

You can't really compare it to previous years as TM is handling it now. Maybe TM uses only first priority for the odds.

If that's what they were doing, then I just wish they would have communicated it properly. I have no problem losing at the lotto if demand exceeds supply. As others have pointed out, prior lotteries basically guaranteed tickets to all priority levels if the final odds were 99%. We had no reason to believe this one would be any different. 

washed in black

foriginalsin said:

Was st. Louis actually 99%? I dont understand how a lot of us could be shut out of shows that were 99%.  There was no user error on my end, bc I scored for my first priority.  I had BA picked for st. Louis which was my 3rd priority and did not get reserved tickets.  The only thing i can think of was that the ending odds were not accurately shown at the time the lottery closed. 

Any thoughts? 

I lost BA for STL as my 3rd priority as well, and yes the odds closed at 99%. The reason I lost is because it was my 3rd priority. All members who had STL at 1st or 2nd priority were put into the draw before me. So, by the time the third round started, many requests had already been filled, so odds were no longer at 99%.

JR86440

washed in black said:

foriginalsin said:

Was st. Louis actually 99%? I dont understand how a lot of us could be shut out of shows that were 99%.  There was no user error on my end, bc I scored for my first priority.  I had BA picked for st. Louis which was my 3rd priority and did not get reserved tickets.  The only thing i can think of was that the ending odds were not accurately shown at the time the lottery closed. 

Any thoughts? 

I lost BA for STL as my 3rd priority as well, and yes the odds closed at 99%. The reason I lost is because it was my 3rd priority. All members who had STL at 1st or 2nd priority were put into the draw before me. So, by the time the third round started, many requests had already been filled, so odds were no longer at 99%.

I don't know about that. I take it as when the odds say 99%, those are ALL submittals, not first choice but what do I know

dmbolp

mattcoz said:

You can't really compare it to previous years as TM is handling it now. Maybe TM uses only first priority for the odds.

Which is how TICKETSTODAY has handled DMB for many years; you select a single priority show

DEGBTI

keep in mind, we are mainly only hearing of the few who lost out. It's a bummer for sure. I would be in deep depression. Me personally, I thought it was awesome. Got all the shows I put in for myself and son. I want to "thank" 10C! Couldn't had been any easier and was an awesome lottery. Point is, because some feel they got screwed, thousands didn't. 

bobby dazzlers

foriginalsin said:

Unless the odds dropped after the closed odds of 99%, Ireally think ticketmaster is withholding tickets.  

Lets see how many resale tickets are on TM on/after Friday.

Gern Blansten

wall232 said:

I don’t think the odds updated correctly, I’ve never seen so many people lose out on a 99% chance regardless of what priority their picks were. 

Yes the odds were clearly not represented correctly.  99% must have only considered priority 1 entries or something.

mattcoz

Jason7192 said:

mattcoz said:

You can't really compare it to previous years as TM is handling it now. Maybe TM uses only first priority for the odds.

If that's what they were doing, then I just wish they would have communicated it properly. I have no problem losing at the lotto if demand exceeds supply. As others have pointed out, prior lotteries basically guaranteed tickets to all priority levels if the final odds were 99%. We had no reason to believe this one would be any different. 

Absolutely, communication has always been terrible about these lotteries. We've just been left to make guesses about how it all works and we have no idea if it changes at all from year to year.