Shut out of 99% st. Louis?

cwja

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around. 

Dercheef

mattcoz said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

There is nothing in there to suggest it wouldn't either.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selsected for a given show" would not really be true if this would only apply for your first priority. And again, past experience support this 100%. But please show me anything that would support the other theory.  

PillowPants

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Where in the rules did you read this? 

JR86440

cwja said:

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around. 

did you see the seating chart with the 10club tickets this go around? LOT more seats available then ever before so you are comparing apples to oranges

PillowPants

OceansJenny said:

Dump the odds.

the odds are great - when they work
well they're great for those of us with the ability to comprehend 

this time they didn't work - that's the only explanation for them all except a few showing 99 at the end
hopefully tm will own up to their mistake but i'm not holding my breath 

cwja

JR86440 said:

cwja said:

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around. 

did you see the seating chart with the 10club tickets this go around? LOT more seats available then ever before so you are comparing apples to oranges

That’s why I used the GA odds...

CG658530

I mean, there is the rather sensible, if I do say so myself, idea concerning how the lottery works, which I stated above—an idea, I say again, I heard from a fellow forum user on this forum during the last group of US shows. 

Dercheef

cwja said:

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around. 

Demand dropped significantly due to the european tour. In 2016 I knew at least a dozen people coming over from germany alone. This time there is hardly anybody even thinking about it because they all aldready have tickets for several shows. Again, this theory is based on nothing. 

edit: Oh and 10c secured way more tickets this time around than they did in 2016. 

cwja

Dercheef edit: Oh and 10c secured way more tickets this time around than they did in 2016. 

Again, that’s why I only compared GA odds from the same cities. 

Peasant Tents

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  

I agree with you.
 Also, the idea that only 1st priority covers odds, that does not explain how some people who had shows as 4th , 5th and 6th priority in Oakland for example, got tickets while others who had it as 2nd priority (and had BA selected) didn't. 

Dercheef

cwja said:

Dercheef edit: Oh and 10c secured way more tickets this time around than they did in 2016. 

Again, that’s why I only compared GA odds from the same cities. 

Ok, fair enough. I still don't really think you have a strong case for your argument though. 

mcgruff10

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request.  All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets.  At 57% you think more would have won tickets.  

cwja

Peasant Tents said:

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  

I agree with you.
 Also, the idea that only 1st priority covers odds, that does not explain how some people who had shows as 4th , 5th and 6th priority in Oakland for example, got tickets while others who had it as 2nd priority (and had BA selected) didn't. 

You’re assuming that TM/10C only screwed up one way. Pretty obvious they managed to find multiple ways of fucking up.

JBob87

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

Everyone agrees that is how it used to / should work. Clearly it did not work that way this time or people wouldn’t have gotten shut out of 99% shows. 

NewfieintheUSA

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request.  All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets.  At 57% you think more would have won tickets.  

The odds of that happening are 7/128 (around 5.5%) assuming all picked BA or Reserved

Jason7192

JBob87 said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

Everyone agrees that is how it used to / should work. Clearly it did not work that way this time or people wouldn’t have gotten shut out of 99% shows. 

Six extra words on the selection screen could have prevented so much confusion: "Odds pertain to first priority only."

mcgruff10

NewfieintheUSA said:

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request.  All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets.  At 57% you think more would have won tickets.  

The odds of that happening are 7/128 (around 5.5%) assuming all picked BA or Reserved

Exactly.   so weird.  All definitely picked best available as their one and only choice.  

Dercheef

JBob87 said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

Everyone agrees that is how it used to / should work. Clearly it did not work that way this time or people wouldn’t have gotten shut out of 99% shows. 

As I said there seems to be something off this time. That doesn't mean though that odds only were relevant to the #1 priority. Until now this is nothing more than a purely speculative theory. 

RT85129

I didn't get tickets on a 3rd priority - best available to Nashville.  My priority was 1) Baltimore - BA, 2) NY - BA 3) Nashville - BA.  Thought with 65% odds to Baltimore and  99% odds to Nashville that I would get those, but I got zilch on my top 3.  

Folks based their priorities off those stated odds.  If they weren't accurate, Ticketmaster did a huge disservice to Pearl Jam fans.  

incidental immortality

JimmyV said:

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  

It's a legitimate concern. I tend to think the odds tool didn't work, but clearly something wasn't right. 

If they couldn't send out e-mails why would we think the odds tool would work correctly?

mattcoz

Dercheef said:

mattcoz said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

There is nothing in there to suggest it wouldn't either.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selsected for a given show" would not really be true if this would only apply for your first priority. And again, past experience support this 100%. But please show me anything that would support the other theory.  

It's far too vague of a statement and past experiences mean nothing as they didn't handle it in the past. I've got nothing to support either theory, my only point is that they've given us very little to go on and we just don't know what they're doing.

mattcoz

mcgruff10 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request.  All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets.  At 57% you think more would have won tickets.  

The odds of that happening are 7/128 (around 5.5%) assuming all picked BA or Reserved

Exactly.   so weird.  All definitely picked best available as their one and only choice.  

Not so weird to assume something is wrong though, still within the realm of just really bad luck.

on2legs

I know nothing about programming computers but it seems like writing code that could accurately predict the selection odds is not really rocket science.  

NewfieintheUSA

on2legs said:

I know nothing about programming computers but it seems like writing code that could accurately predict the selection odds is not really rocket science.  

Agreed

Peasant Tents

cwja said:

Peasant Tents said:

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  

I agree with you.
 Also, the idea that only 1st priority covers odds, that does not explain how some people who had shows as 4th , 5th and 6th priority in Oakland for example, got tickets while others who had it as 2nd priority (and had BA selected) didn't. 

You’re assuming that TM/10C only screwed up one way. Pretty obvious they managed to find multiple ways of fucking up.

Haha!!!  Yes indeed!!! :-)   Good point!

Kevinman

mattcoz said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

There is nothing in there to suggest it wouldn't either.

Thank you

Sarava

jamesbrown1832 said:

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

From what I followed of the results, the Canadian shows seemed to go ok (and I got my 3 out of 3 ) as did the Cali shows etc. But something definitely seems off with STL (and NSH).

All the speculation about how the odds and how priorities worked is....just speculation (and in contradiction to how TM/10C said it would work). I chose to believe things were setup and run as they said, but certainly seems to be some anomalies (even after the very significant number of user error entries).  Like everyone else, I hope some info comes out....but I'm not holding my breath.  

Absolutely. I'm driving down from the Chicago burbs - it's about a 4 1/2 hour drive. I initially thought St. Louis would be the biggest demand after MSG. Baltimore is hard to compare since it's a small arena.

GM151575

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request.  All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets.  At 57% you think more would have won tickets.  

Make that 8, my friend. 

Zod

Ticketstoday only updated the odds a few times a day right?   I noticed a big dropoff on the final day.  Assuming there was a number of hours between the last update and cutoff, they could of continued as people put their orders in last second?

I know we put ours in for Oakland about 3 hours before cutoff.  I think a lot of people waited to do it?

JimmyV

Zod said:

Ticketstoday only updated the odds a few times a day right?   I noticed a big dropoff on the final day.  Assuming there was a number of hours between the last update and cutoff, they could of continued as people put their orders in last second?

I know we put ours in for Oakland about 3 hours before cutoff.  I think a lot of people waited to do it?

10C is sending these final odds around to people with questions this afternoon. Everything other than the big 2 was at 99%. 

Final Ticket Odds:
Toronto ON GA: 32.03% Res: 99.00%
Ottawa, ON GA: 56.17% Res: 99.00%
Quebec City GA: 75.47% Res: 99.00%
Hamilton GA: 40.37% RES: 99.00%
Baltimore GA: 14.47% RES: 65.20%
NY, NY GA: 9.66% RES: 57.22%
Nashville, TN GA: 19.65% RES: 99.00%
St Louis MO GA: 20.08% RES: 99.00%
OKC GA: 59.29% RES: 99.00%
Denver GA: 20.36% RES: 99.00%
Glendale AZ GA: 33.91% RES: 99.00%
San Diego GA: 32.41% RES: 99.00%
LANight 1 GA: 27.16% RES: 99.00%
LA Night 2 GA: 24.77% RES: 99.00%
Oakland Night 1 GA: 28.08% RES: 99.00%
Oakland Night 2 GA: 34.58% RES: 99.00%