Shut out of 99% st. Louis?

WildFly

I just would like to know how you get shut out on second priority St. Louis BA, and I have seen some receiving confirmation for the same show on their 3rd, 4th, or 5th priority.  I am not complaining at all but would just like to know how this happens.

Jason7192

WildFly said:

I just would like to know how you get shut out on second priority St. Louis BA, and I have seen some receiving confirmation for the same show on their 3rd, 4th, or 5th priority.  I am not complaining at all but would just like to know how this happens.

FWIW, I haven't seen anyone claiming they won STL with 3rd priority or worse. Maybe I missed something though.

CG658530

I think someone explained how the draw works, and the 99% is based on first choice. So the draw happens like this:

Anyone who lists a top priority has that % chance of getting tickets. Then any remaining tickets left go to the people who put the show as second priority. Any remaining tickets from those who got tickets from second priority then go to those with who list the show as third priority. This ultimately means that if anything is less than 99% (basically meaning 100%) and is not your #1 priority, you probably aren't getting tickets. 

Imagine, just to make it simple, there are 1000 seats available and every seat goes to 10club members. 500 people put the show as top priority. They're all going to get tickets. So that's 500 left. Now imagine 400 people put the show as second priority. Because there are still 500 tickets left, those 400 will get tickets. Now let's say 300 people put the show third priority, because there are only 100 seats left, 200 people will be shut out. 

I'm pretty sure that's how it works. If anyone got tickets with a second priority less than 99%, let me know, and I'd have to readjust how I think the draw works. 

LaFleur

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

From what I followed of the results, the Canadian shows seemed to go ok (and I got my 3 out of 3 ) as did the Cali shows etc. But something definitely seems off with STL (and NSH).

All the speculation about how the odds and how priorities worked is....just speculation (and in contradiction to how TM/10C said it would work). I chose to believe things were setup and run as they said, but certainly seems to be some anomalies (even after the very significant number of user error entries).  Like everyone else, I hope some info comes out....but I'm not holding my breath.  

pjsteelerfan

jamesbrown1832 said:

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

From what I followed of the results, the Canadian shows seemed to go ok (and I got my 3 out of 3 ) as did the Cali shows etc. But something definitely seems off with STL (and NSH).

All the speculation about how the odds and how priorities worked is....just speculation (and in contradiction to how TM/10C said it would work). I chose to believe things were setup and run as they said, but certainly seems to be some anomalies (even after the very significant number of user error entries).  Like everyone else, I hope some info comes out....but I'm not holding my breath.  

Its a Saturday night, and sort of close to a couple major cites with very short flights, Kansas City, Chicago, Indianapolis that all did not get shows this spring.  I'm sure people thought it was easier than everyone trying for the only two shows in the Northeast that were also on a weekend.  

know1

jamesbrown1832 said:

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

From what I followed of the results, the Canadian shows seemed to go ok (and I got my 3 out of 3 ) as did the Cali shows etc. But something definitely seems off with STL (and NSH).

All the speculation about how the odds and how priorities worked is....just speculation (and in contradiction to how TM/10C said it would work). I chose to believe things were setup and run as they said, but certainly seems to be some anomalies (even after the very significant number of user error entries).  Like everyone else, I hope some info comes out....but I'm not holding my breath.  

It's a weekend show in the middle of the country. I thought it would be high demand all along. 

mattcoz

WildFly said:

I just would like to know how you get shut out on second priority St. Louis BA, and I have seen some receiving confirmation for the same show on their 3rd, 4th, or 5th priority.  I am not complaining at all but would just like to know how this happens.

Might depend on if you won with your 1st priority or not. So if you won your 1st, your 2nd priority could be lower than someone's 3rd priority who lost their 1st and 2nd. I don't know if it actually works that way, but I think it would be fair.

ajflicker

CG658530 said:

I think someone explained how the draw works, and the 99% is based on first choice. So the draw happens like this:

Anyone who lists a top priority has that % chance of getting tickets. Then any remaining tickets left go to the people who put the show as second priority. Any remaining tickets from those who got tickets from second priority then go to those with who list the show as third priority. This ultimately means that if anything is less than 99% (basically meaning 100%) and is not your #1 priority, you probably aren't getting tickets. 

Imagine, just to make it simple, there are 1000 seats available and every seat goes to 10club members. 500 people put the show as top priority. They're all going to get tickets. So that's 500 left. Now imagine 400 people put the show as second priority. Because there are still 500 tickets left, those 400 will get tickets. Now let's say 300 people put the show third priority, because there are only 100 seats left, 200 people will be shut out. 

I'm pretty sure that's how it works. If anyone got tickets with a second priority less than 99%, let me know, and I'd have to readjust how I think the draw works. 

That's how I understood it to work too. The only way I could see you missing out on #1 priority is if you put GA only.

washed in black

jamesbrown1832 said:

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

We added STL at the last minute because it is a Sat. night. I think that is a huge draw for many fans.

LaFleur

know1 said:

jamesbrown1832 said:

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

From what I followed of the results, the Canadian shows seemed to go ok (and I got my 3 out of 3 ) as did the Cali shows etc. But something definitely seems off with STL (and NSH).

All the speculation about how the odds and how priorities worked is....just speculation (and in contradiction to how TM/10C said it would work). I chose to believe things were setup and run as they said, but certainly seems to be some anomalies (even after the very significant number of user error entries).  Like everyone else, I hope some info comes out....but I'm not holding my breath.  

It's a weekend show in the middle of the country. I thought it would be high demand all along. 

I overlooked the Saturday factor, good point. Would have thought demand on par with Toronto though (easily highest of the Canadian shows, and suspect many with both CDN and US requests had TO high) - and I (gratefully) won TO with 3rd priority. 

washed in black

jamesbrown1832 said:

I overlooked the Saturday factor, good point. Would have thought demand on par with Toronto though (easily highest of the Canadian shows, and suspect many with both CDN and US requests had TO high) - and I (gratefully) won TO with 3rd priority. 

What were your first and second priorities? I'm guessing you went in as BA for all?
I won TO as first (and only) priority on my Canada submission. Lost STL as third priority on my US submission after losing both Balt & MSG. (all BA) Had we have to submit both Canada & US shows in one entry, no doubt I would have walked away with nothing.

Kevinman

ajflicker said:

CG658530 said:

I think someone explained how the draw works, and the 99% is based on first choice. So the draw happens like this:

Anyone who lists a top priority has that % chance of getting tickets. Then any remaining tickets left go to the people who put the show as second priority. Any remaining tickets from those who got tickets from second priority then go to those with who list the show as third priority. This ultimately means that if anything is less than 99% (basically meaning 100%) and is not your #1 priority, you probably aren't getting tickets. 

Imagine, just to make it simple, there are 1000 seats available and every seat goes to 10club members. 500 people put the show as top priority. They're all going to get tickets. So that's 500 left. Now imagine 400 people put the show as second priority. Because there are still 500 tickets left, those 400 will get tickets. Now let's say 300 people put the show third priority, because there are only 100 seats left, 200 people will be shut out. 

I'm pretty sure that's how it works. If anyone got tickets with a second priority less than 99%, let me know, and I'd have to readjust how I think the draw works. 

That's how I understood it to work too. The only way I could see you missing out on #1 priority is if you put GA only.

Agree

Kevinman

jamesbrown1832 said:

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

From what I followed of the results, the Canadian shows seemed to go ok (and I got my 3 out of 3 ) as did the Cali shows etc. But something definitely seems off with STL (and NSH).

All the speculation about how the odds and how priorities worked is....just speculation (and in contradiction to how TM/10C said it would work). I chose to believe things were setup and run as they said, but certainly seems to be some anomalies (even after the very significant number of user error entries).  Like everyone else, I hope some info comes out....but I'm not holding my breath.  

Chicago area alone is over 9 million people.  Now figure in Indy, Milwaukee, KC.  Easy for all locations on Saturday night.
St Louis is not a small town either.

LaFleur

washed in black said:

What were your first and second priorities? I'm guessing you went in as BA for all?
I won TO as first (and only) priority on my Canada submission. Lost STL as third priority on my US submission after losing both Balt & MSG. (all BA) Had we have to submit both Canada & US shows in one entry, no doubt I would have walked away with nothing.

HAM, OTT, TO all BA (hope/think HAM won GA). And ya, the splitting Cdn and US certainly advantage for those willing to cross the border. Glad to hear you got 1 at least. 

Dercheef

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

j.p.patrick

Did everyone catch the fine print that your first names needed to be exact matches on 10C and Ticketmaster accounts? I checked and mine didn't match. I've never gone by my real first name. This was obviously not the case for prior tours. Made the change to make them match before I put in requests and got confirmation emails for both shows I put in for! Now just waiting for the 27th to see if I got GA or Reserved!

Kevinman

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

Dercheef

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

mattcoz

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

There is nothing in there to suggest it wouldn't either.

foriginalsin

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

Thank you.