Home› The Porch

Shut out of 99% st. Louis?

foriginalsinforiginalsin Posts: 711
in The Porch
Was st. Louis actually 99%? I dont understand how a lot of us could be shut out of shows that were 99%.  There was no user error on my end, bc I scored for my first priority.  I had BA picked for st. Louis which was my 3rd priority and did not get reserved tickets.  The only thing i can think of was that the ending odds were not accurately shown at the time the lottery closed. 

Any thoughts? 
«134

Comments

  • foriginalsinforiginalsin Posts: 711
    Bump
  • dutz054dutz054 Posts: 72
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
  • tylermooretylermoore Posts: 921
    I mean. Unfortunately it wasn’t 100%, even if was 99% no one is guaranteed tickets. Especially their 3rd choice. 
  • Franklin Delano BluthFranklin Delano Bluth Posts: 529
    The only explanation is that the odds dropped below 99% as people waited till the last minute to put in their requests. 

    I’m not saying that Ticketmaster is somehow withholding tickets that were 99%, but why not post the final odds so you’re not inviting the skeptics to question the lottery?

    hope you can score through the verified or public sale. If not, extras will be available here from other members. Don’t pay scalpers.  
  • carbon436carbon436 Posts: 352
    Probably ended lower than 99%. I’m in the same boat as you - hit on 1st and 2nd choice as BA, but got shut out of STL. 

    Hard to complain when folks are getting shut out of all their picks. 
  • drakeheuer14drakeheuer14 Posts: 4,450
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    Hot take. I don’t believe it though.
    Pittsburgh 2013
    Cincinnati 2014
    Greenville 2016
    (Raleigh 2016)
    Columbia 2016
  • bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,838
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    Is that confirmed or assumed?
  • JBob87JBob87 Posts: 457
    bootlegger10 said:
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    Is that confirmed or assumed?
    Assumed. There’s no confirmation of that. It would make some sense though.
  • foriginalsinforiginalsin Posts: 711
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    This doesnt make any sense. How are the odds only for your first priority? If the odds are 99%, theyre still 99% after everyones first and second and thereafter priorities are taken into account. 
  • foriginalsinforiginalsin Posts: 711
    Unless the odds dropped after the closed odds of 99%, Ireally think ticketmaster is withholding tickets.  
  • dutz054dutz054 Posts: 72
    bootlegger10 said:
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    Is that confirmed or assumed?
    How it was in 2018, and it’s easy to connect the dots. 

    If you have to prioritize your preferences it makes more sense than thinking you have a legitimate shot at getting tickets at 99% probability in an 18k seat arena with no Chicago show in this leg.   I don’t know why this is so hard for people to believe. 
  • dutz054dutz054 Posts: 72
    foriginalsin said:
    Unless the odds dropped after the closed odds of 99%, Ireally think ticketmaster is withholding tickets.  
    Here come the conspiracy theories, Ticketmaster holding tickets to sell on the resale market that isn’t supposed to exist. Let’s all wrap ourselves in aluminum foil 
  • SHZASHZA Posts: 3,895
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    That makes no sense. When the person has the show ranked 3rd or 4th before hitting submit and it says 99% on that screen, that's flat out misleading. 
  • Father HubbardFather Hubbard Chicago Posts: 1,591
    Will be interesting to see what they have for platinum

    Official Platinum
    Starts Fri, Jan 31 @ 10:00 am CST

  • bootlegger10bootlegger10 Posts: 15,838
    dutz054 said:
    bootlegger10 said:
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    Is that confirmed or assumed?
    How it was in 2018, and it’s easy to connect the dots. 

    If you have to prioritize your preferences it makes more sense than thinking you have a legitimate shot at getting tickets at 99% probability in an 18k seat arena with no Chicago show in this leg.   I don’t know why this is so hard for people to believe. 
    Well, typically people believe things that are true.  I won GA tickets in prior lotteries with not my first priority where the GA odds were less than 99%.  If you were correct, then that would have been impossible.

    I got LA2 with my third priority so somehow against all odds there were still tickets left.   
  • foriginalsinforiginalsin Posts: 711
    dutz054 said:
    bootlegger10 said:
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    Is that confirmed or assumed?
    How it was in 2018, and it’s easy to connect the dots. 

    If you have to prioritize your preferences it makes more sense than thinking you have a legitimate shot at getting tickets at 99% probability in an 18k seat arena with no Chicago show in this leg.   I don’t know why this is so hard for people to believe. 
    Your just making stuff up now.  The odds are after everyones submissions are entered, all priorities. 
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,949
    Every show I’ve put in for in the past with 99% reserved odds won. Every single time. Some of those priorities were as low as 6th priority. 99% odds were a lock in past lotteries. Not the case in this one, so there is a disconnect. 
  • drakeheuer14drakeheuer14 Posts: 4,450
    Father Hubbard said:
    Will be interesting to see what they have for platinum

    Official Platinum
    Starts Fri, Jan 31 @ 10:00 am CST

    Interesting indeed
    Pittsburgh 2013
    Cincinnati 2014
    Greenville 2016
    (Raleigh 2016)
    Columbia 2016
  • foriginalsinforiginalsin Posts: 711
    dutz054 said:
    foriginalsin said:
    Unless the odds dropped after the closed odds of 99%, Ireally think ticketmaster is withholding tickets.  
    Here come the conspiracy theories, Ticketmaster holding tickets to sell on the resale market that isn’t supposed to exist. Let’s all wrap ourselves in aluminum foil 
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spin.com/2018/09/ticketmaster-scalpers-tradedesk%3famp=1

    How about this for your conspiracy theory 
  • BSullyBSully Posts: 1,183
    I try to ignore the odds and just put in for whatever seats that I can get. I would rather be anywhere in the building instead of missing out on a tour...
    1998: Noblesville, IN 08-17
    2000: Noblesville, IN 08-18
    2003: Noblesville, IN 06-22
    2006: Cincinnati, OH 06-24
    2010: Noblesville, IN 05-07
    2016: Lexington, KY 04-26, Wrigley Field 2 08-22
    2018: Wrigley Field 1 08-18, Wrigley Field 2 08-20
    2022: St. Louis, MO 09-18
    2024: Noblesville, IN 08-26, Wrigley Field 1 08-29, Wrigley Field 2 08-31
  • Spiritual_ChaosSpiritual_Chaos Posts: 30,156
    edited January 2020
    foriginalsin said:
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    This doesnt make any sense. How are the odds only for your first priority? If the odds are 99%, theyre still 99% after everyones first and second and thereafter priorities are taken into account. 
    Then there would have to be different odds for everyone. Me putting in a GA ticket, with 35% chance listed, at 1st and you in 5st give different odds for both of us... so what... the odds-number listed would be some average? or for the one person putting it the lowest? Hmmmmm

    I've always thought it was the odds for 1st priority-people.
    Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • amethgr8amethgr8 Posts: 766
    your name was not drawn, sorry you didn't score tix this tour.
    Amy The Great #74594
    New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
    Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
    08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
    Champaign IL 4/23/03
    Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
    Grand Rapids MI 19May06
    Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
    PJ 20 2011
    Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
    St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
    Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
    Missoula MT 2018
  • OceansJennyOceansJenny Posts: 3,394
    Dump the odds.
    DC '03 - Reading '04 - Philly '05 - Camden 1 '06 - DC '06 - E. Rutherford '06 - The Vic '07 - Lollapalooza '07 - DC '08 - EV DC 1 & 2 '08 (Met Ed!!) - EV Baltimore 1 & 2 '09 - EV NYC 1 '11 (Met Ed!) - Hartford '13 - GCF '15 - MSG 2 '16 - TOTD MSG '16 - Boston 1 & 2 '18 - SHN '21 - EV NYC 1 & 2 '22 - MSG '22
  • D-RodD-Rod Hamilton, Ontario Posts: 1,835
    It was always my belief that odds were for the whole show not just 1st priority.  Many people put their ticket requests in at the last minute but we never see the final odds ( at least not this time).  I’m guessing that their wasn’t many 99% when the ticket window closed. 

     Just my opinion. 
    1996.....Toronto
    2005.....Hamilton
    2011.....Toronto N1, Toronto N2, Hamilton
    2013.....London, Buffalo
    2014.....Detroit
    2016.....Toronto N1 Toronto N2, Boston  N1, Boston N2, Chicago N1
    2018.....Seattle N1, Seattle N2
    2022.....San Diego, Los Angeles N1, Los Angeles N2, Phoenix, Oakland N1, Oakland N2, Quebec City, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto  
    2023.....Fort Worth N1, Fort Worth N2, Austin N1, Austin N2
    2024.....Las Vegas N1, Las Vegas N2, Los Angeles N1, Los Angeles N2, Boston N1, Boston N2
    2025.....????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
  • Alpine BoundAlpine Bound Posts: 1,809
    dutz054 said:
    bootlegger10 said:
    dutz054 said:
    Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds
    Is that confirmed or assumed?
    How it was in 2018, and it’s easy to connect the dots. 

    If you have to prioritize your preferences it makes more sense than thinking you have a legitimate shot at getting tickets at 99% probability in an 18k seat arena with no Chicago show in this leg.   I don’t know why this is so hard for people to believe. 
    This is 100% inaccurate!

    I won Missoula GA, Seattle 2, both Boston and Chicago 1 all with priority 2 or lower and they all had well below 99% odds...

    The odds are for ALL PRIORITIES. That doesn't mean there wasn't a screw up and the odds were actually wrong this time (imp they definitely were off)

  • on2legson2legs Standing in the Jersey rain… Posts: 14,954
    edited January 2020
    dutz054 said:
    foriginalsin said:
    Unless the odds dropped after the closed odds of 99%, Ireally think ticketmaster is withholding tickets.  
    Here come the conspiracy theories, Ticketmaster holding tickets to sell on the resale market that isn’t supposed to exist. Let’s all wrap ourselves in aluminum foil 
    Ticketmaster unquestionably has access to tickets.  I know this for a fact.  
    1996: Randall's Island 2  1998: East Rutherford | MSG 1 & 2  2000: Cincinnati | Columbus | Jones Beach 1, 2, & 3 | Boston 1 | Camden 1 & 2 2003: Philadelphia | Uniondale | MSG 1 & 2 | Holmdel  2005: Atlantic City 1  2006: Camden 1 | East Rutherford 1 & 2 2008: Camden 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Newark (EV)  2009: Philadelphia 1, 2 & 4  2010: Newark | MSG 1 & 2  2011: Toronto 1  2013: Wrigley Field | Brooklyn 2 | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore  2015: Central Park  2016: Philadelphia 1 & 2 | MSG 1 & 2 | Fenway Park 2 | MSG (TOTD)  2017: Brooklyn (RnR HOF)  2020: MSG | Asbury Park  2021: Asbury Park  2022: MSG | Camden | Nashville  2024: MSG 1 & 2 (#50) | Philadelphia 1 & 2 | Baltimore


  • know1know1 Posts: 6,794
    bbiggs said:
    Every show I’ve put in for in the past with 99% reserved odds won. Every single time. Some of those priorities were as low as 6th priority. 99% odds were a lock in past lotteries. Not the case in this one, so there is a disconnect. 
    The disconnect is that the odds finally caught up with you. 
    The only people we should try to get even with...
    ...are those who've helped us.

    Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
  • foriginalsinforiginalsin Posts: 711
    I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

    Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  
  • wall232wall232 Posts: 1,346
    I don’t think the odds updated correctly, I’ve never seen so many people lose out on a 99% chance regardless of what priority their picks were. 

    NYPJ
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,949
    know1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Every show I’ve put in for in the past with 99% reserved odds won. Every single time. Some of those priorities were as low as 6th priority. 99% odds were a lock in past lotteries. Not the case in this one, so there is a disconnect. 
    The disconnect is that the odds finally caught up with you. 

    Appreciate the words of wisdom, but I scored tickets.  Was stating facts; not griping about striking out.  Try again.
Sign In or Register to comment.