Shut out of 99% st. Louis?

mattcoz

Dercheef said:

mattcoz said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

There is nothing in there to suggest it wouldn't either.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selsected for a given show" would not really be true if this would only apply for your first priority. And again, past experience support this 100%. But please show me anything that would support the other theory.  

It's far too vague of a statement and past experiences mean nothing as they didn't handle it in the past. I've got nothing to support either theory, my only point is that they've given us very little to go on and we just don't know what they're doing.

mattcoz

mcgruff10 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request.  All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets.  At 57% you think more would have won tickets.  

The odds of that happening are 7/128 (around 5.5%) assuming all picked BA or Reserved

Exactly.   so weird.  All definitely picked best available as their one and only choice.  

Not so weird to assume something is wrong though, still within the realm of just really bad luck.

on2legs

I know nothing about programming computers but it seems like writing code that could accurately predict the selection odds is not really rocket science.  

NewfieintheUSA

on2legs said:

I know nothing about programming computers but it seems like writing code that could accurately predict the selection odds is not really rocket science.  

Agreed

Peasant Tents

cwja said:

Peasant Tents said:

foriginalsin said:

I dont know why people have to be dicks about this. For the past 7 years if a show was 99%, it didnt matter about where the show was prioritized, everyone got tickets to a show that was 99%.  

Either the odds were improperly shown this time or ticketmaster is holding back tickets.  

I agree with you.
 Also, the idea that only 1st priority covers odds, that does not explain how some people who had shows as 4th , 5th and 6th priority in Oakland for example, got tickets while others who had it as 2nd priority (and had BA selected) didn't. 

You’re assuming that TM/10C only screwed up one way. Pretty obvious they managed to find multiple ways of fucking up.

Haha!!!  Yes indeed!!! :-)   Good point!

Kevinman

mattcoz said:

Dercheef said:

Kevinman said:

Dercheef said:

dutz054 said:

Odds given are for #1 priority shows only, anything below that are substantially less odds

Absolutely false. 

Show me where it says this is NOT true please.

"The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available" Source: https://help.pearljam.com/hc/en-us/articles/205143590-Pre-sale-Drawing
There is nothing in there to suggest this would only apply to #1 prioritys. And past experiences have this to be proven 100% true. I cannot remember people complaining about getting shut out of gigs with their higher prioritys when odds were at 99%. This time it seems that something was off but this could be down to an error or the odds not being updated every 5 minutes like they got for past drawings. You on the other hand have nothing to back your theory up. 

There is nothing in there to suggest it wouldn't either.

Thank you

Sarava

jamesbrown1832 said:

Does it make sense STL would be in high demand? (I don't know, Canadian here). Based on the various threads it seems like STL has most rejections after MSG and BAL....would STL be expected to have similar demand to those obvious high demand NE shows?

From what I followed of the results, the Canadian shows seemed to go ok (and I got my 3 out of 3 ) as did the Cali shows etc. But something definitely seems off with STL (and NSH).

All the speculation about how the odds and how priorities worked is....just speculation (and in contradiction to how TM/10C said it would work). I chose to believe things were setup and run as they said, but certainly seems to be some anomalies (even after the very significant number of user error entries).  Like everyone else, I hope some info comes out....but I'm not holding my breath.  

Absolutely. I'm driving down from the Chicago burbs - it's about a 4 1/2 hour drive. I initially thought St. Louis would be the biggest demand after MSG. Baltimore is hard to compare since it's a small arena.

GM151575

mcgruff10 said:

I was just talking to a few of my friends (7 in all including myself) who tried for msg as their first and only ticket request.  All of us put in best available and only one of us won tickets.  At 57% you think more would have won tickets.  

Make that 8, my friend. 

Zod

Ticketstoday only updated the odds a few times a day right?   I noticed a big dropoff on the final day.  Assuming there was a number of hours between the last update and cutoff, they could of continued as people put their orders in last second?

I know we put ours in for Oakland about 3 hours before cutoff.  I think a lot of people waited to do it?

JimmyV

Zod said:

Ticketstoday only updated the odds a few times a day right?   I noticed a big dropoff on the final day.  Assuming there was a number of hours between the last update and cutoff, they could of continued as people put their orders in last second?

I know we put ours in for Oakland about 3 hours before cutoff.  I think a lot of people waited to do it?

10C is sending these final odds around to people with questions this afternoon. Everything other than the big 2 was at 99%. 

Final Ticket Odds:
Toronto ON GA: 32.03% Res: 99.00%
Ottawa, ON GA: 56.17% Res: 99.00%
Quebec City GA: 75.47% Res: 99.00%
Hamilton GA: 40.37% RES: 99.00%
Baltimore GA: 14.47% RES: 65.20%
NY, NY GA: 9.66% RES: 57.22%
Nashville, TN GA: 19.65% RES: 99.00%
St Louis MO GA: 20.08% RES: 99.00%
OKC GA: 59.29% RES: 99.00%
Denver GA: 20.36% RES: 99.00%
Glendale AZ GA: 33.91% RES: 99.00%
San Diego GA: 32.41% RES: 99.00%
LANight 1 GA: 27.16% RES: 99.00%
LA Night 2 GA: 24.77% RES: 99.00%
Oakland Night 1 GA: 28.08% RES: 99.00%
Oakland Night 2 GA: 34.58% RES: 99.00%

cwja

Pretty obvious that the odds were not calculated correctly. Also obvious that they screwed up the Oakland and LA draws. Who screwed up and how we’ll probably never know.

Seems like most of the draws worked properly and they did a great job of securing more tickets. 

Zod

cwja said:

Pretty obvious that the odds were not calculated correctly. Also obvious that they screwed up the Oakland and LA draws. Who screwed up and how we’ll probably never know.

Seems like most of the draws worked properly and they did a great job of securing more tickets. 

I would say calculated differently.  Ticketstoday may not have thought of it the same way as 10c did.  

And yah, for the most part it seems to have worked pretty well (hiccups aside).

washed in black

cwja said:

Just curious - @cwja, do you have the Miami odds for reserved from 2016? I had that as my 4th pick and won. Lost MSG N2 as my 2nd pick.

cwja

washed in black said:

cwja said:

Just curious - @cwja, do you have the Miami odds for reserved from 2016? I had that as my 4th pick and won. Lost MSG N2 as my 2nd pick.

Sorry I do not. I found this in another discussion on here.

Lerxst1992

cwja said:

16 vs 20 odds

Toronto 11 v 33
Ottawa 28 v 59
QC 44 v 79
NYC 7/8 v 10

Pretty clear based on comparing the closing odds that they were based on first priority this time around. Unless you think demand dropped significantly. This would be especially unlikely because there was less risk in pursuing GA through the BA route this time around. 

There is no indication anywhere they changed how the odds were calculated. It’s more likely the odds deceased significantly at the end of registration, especially for the west time zone shows. This is the wording for older tours and the odds are per show not per priority

 “The purpose of this tool is to show you the odds of being selected for a given show. The odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available. “

Little Italy

This☝🏼

Perhaps he should do some research as to who, what, when and why that term was even created and for what intended purpose.

Little Italy

foriginalsin said:

dutz054 said:

foriginalsin said:

Unless the odds dropped after the closed odds of 99%, Ireally think ticketmaster is withholding tickets.  

Here come the conspiracy theories, Ticketmaster holding tickets to sell on the resale market that isn’t supposed to exist. Let’s all wrap ourselves in aluminum foil 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spin.com/2018/09/ticketmaster-scalpers-tradedesk%3famp=1

How about this for your conspiracy theory 

This☝🏼

Perhaps they should do some research as to who, what, when and why that term was even created and for what intended purpose.

cwja

These were the final odds according to 10C. They dropped 1-3 points. The odds are solely to show demand but they were obviously either calculated differently or incorrect based on a simple comparison of the same shows four years ago. Or demand has dropped significantly.

foriginalsin

cwja said:

These were the final odds according to 10C. They dropped 1-3 points. The odds are solely to show demand but they were obviously either calculated differently or incorrect based on a simple comparison of the same shows four years ago. Or demand has dropped significantly.

Its clear that ticketstoday screwed the whole thing up. The posted odds at the end were 99%. Lets say it dropped lower than 99% after the final odds posted. it surely did not drop a lot. If the most sought after show was at 57% then St. Louis or any other show showing 99% wouldn't drop more than 10 or 15% anyway.

This many people shouldn't have been shut out with such great odds.  And seeing all the issues with email and St. Louis in general, it makes sense that the problem was with Ticketmaster. 

I do want to commend Tenclub for securing this many tickets. That was awesome and there were way more tickets available to us than ever before. 

on2legs

I know a guy who knows a guy that works for Ticketmaster.  The guy I know has already been offered tickets to see Pearl Jam by his friend.