North American Tour Odds
Comments
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Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 20240 -
I have reserved for Baltimore and NYC. I put Baltimore as first because my wife can make that show and not NYC since it is a Monday. Should I switch NYC to number 1 because of the odds?
My wife also has a Ten Club membership. Should I put in for NYC in her membership as well? I got stuck with 2 sets of tickets for Boston last tour when I did this. While I eventually was able to sell the extra set, it was concerning for a while, so I don't want to be stuck with 4 tickets. But it is NYC, so I should have an easier time selling the 2 extra on fan to fan if I get 4.
Do you think I should switch to NYC as my first choice and also put in the extra membership request for NYC? Or should I be fine with just one request (we want reserved, not GA - my wife likes having seats
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Thank you0
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"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.0 -
If I am reading this correctly, it would mean that you could possibly be notified before Sunday the 19th. I thought I had read somewhere that we would receive the notifications on Sunday.Renfield said:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
“Email confirmations will be sent out on a show-by-show basis over the course of 4 days, beginning Thursday, January 16th.”
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I'm in for Best Available in Baltimore and the latest odds were 19% GA and 85% Reserved. Still crossing my fingers for a fall Ohio show!
Cuyahoga Falls 92', Cuyahoga Falls 98', Cleveland 03', Cincinnati 03' (Flooded), Cincinnati 06', Cincinnati 14', Chicago N2 23', Indy 23' (Cancelled), Vegas N2 24', Seattle N1 24', Indy 24', Chicago N2 24', Boston N1 24'
__________0 -
Is this right? 'GA only' requests are filled before 'best available' requests? So they fill all of "GA only" requests, and then give remaining GA tickets, if available, to the "best available" folks...
I wish I was a sacrifice, but somehow still lived on....0 -
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 20240 -
If you have 2 members and are after the 2 most desired shows WHY NOT use her membership and both put in NY first for one and Balt first for the other person??GR280729 said:I have reserved for Baltimore and NYC. I put Baltimore as first because my wife can make that show and not NYC since it is a Monday. Should I switch NYC to number 1 because of the odds?
My wife also has a Ten Club membership. Should I put in for NYC in her membership as well? I got stuck with 2 sets of tickets for Boston last tour when I did this. While I eventually was able to sell the extra set, it was concerning for a while, so I don't want to be stuck with 4 tickets. But it is NYC, so I should have an easier time selling the 2 extra on fan to fan if I get 4.
Do you think I should switch to NYC as my first choice and also put in the extra membership request for NYC? Or should I be fine with just one request (we want reserved, not GA - my wife likes having seats )
This Fan to Fan sale would EASILY let you sell your pair of extras0 -
No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.0 -
Because they would draw by person, you get the top ranked choice that's available and then they put you back in the pool for the next round. You get drawn again and if there are shows available with your choices remaining you get the next one, put back in the lottery pool, etc...tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.0 -
FYI: this makes "rank your show choices" work as an actual ranking (your preference) rather than some elaborate game as many here seem to treat it.ecdanc said:
No, they'd randomly select a person and give them whatever their top priority still available is. They're then kicked to the back of the line until everyone has received one set of tickets.tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems the simplest algorithm. It's basically drawing all the numbers, putting them on a list, then going through the list top to bottom (repeatedly) until all the tickets are exhausted or all the orders are filled.0 -
Yeah, I am leaning towards that right now. When it was 99% for reserved, I thought I would be OK. But I guess I was just hoping it would stay 99%.gotthebottle said:
If you have 2 members and are after the 2 most desired shows WHY NOT use her membership and both put in NY first for one and Balt first for the other person??
This Fan to Fan sale would EASILY let you sell your pair of extras
I bought the second membership to make sure I get tickets when I was shut out of NYC last time they toured (did get the two Philly shows though)
Where do we find out the odds?0 -
No, they are drawing entries at random. They start with priority 1 entries, then if any tickets are left over they move on to priority 2 entries, and so on until all tickets are gone (or all entries are selected).ritg19 said:Is this right? 'GA only' requests are filled before 'best available' requests? So they fill all of "GA only" requests, and then give remaining GA tickets, if available, to the "best available" folks...
When you are selected, they check what you enters for, if GA only, if there are GA tickets left, you get them, if not, you don't get any tickets. If Best Available, you get GA if they are available, otherwise Reserved.0 -
Other people have stated that they've heard directly from 10C that they are drawing person-by-person and not show-by-show. Person-by-person makes more sense for a fair lottery system, so I hope they're doing that.
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows0 -
This, basically. It literally never occurred to me they'd do it any differently until I saw some of the posts here. It seems the simplest/fairest, but that doesn't mean they'll do it that way. Shrug.Mozzy said:
Because they would draw by person, you get the top ranked choice that's available and then they put you back in the pool for the next round. You get drawn again and if there are shows available with your choices remaining you get the next one, put back in the lottery pool, etc...tdawe said:
So they'd randomly select a person, give them everything they requested, then move on to the next person until the tickets are gone? Not sure how the "rank your show choices" system would work if you're NOT drawing show by show.ecdanc said:
"Not sure what other way you would do it"....tdawe said:
Yes - we know they're drawing "show by show" (not sure what other way you would do it), but we're only guessing that (1) they'll be drawn in chrono order rather than some other order and (2) the drawings will be evenly distributed over the four days (maybe there will be more done Thursday and Friday than over the weekend, maybe they feel like they can do 5 per day so everything other than the last show will be done by Saturday, etc.).Jason7192 said:
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.tdawe said:
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:Swordo said:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
And I can tell you from experience that the waiting sucks even when the odds are at or near 99%.
I don't know how they're going to do it, but person-by-person would be more of a genuine lottery.0 -
Quick question - do they still do the lottery for reserved tickets where you can get 1st/2nd or 9th/10th row, regardless of #?
Wachovia Center, Philadelphia - 10/3/05
Tweeter Center, Camden - 5/27/06
Verizon Center, Wash. DC - 5/30/06
Bonnaroo, Manchester, TN - 6/14/08
Madison Square Garden, NYC - 6/19/08
Spectrum, Philadelphia - 10/28/09
Spectrum, Philadelphia - 10/30/09
Spectrum, Philadelphia - 10/31/09
Madison Square Garden, NYC - 5/21/10
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia - 10/21/131st Mariner Arena, Baltimore - 10/27/13
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia - 4/28/16
Enterprise Center, Saint Louis - 9/18/220 -
That makes no sense. How would person by person work?Mozzy said:
Other people have stated that they've heard directly from 10C that they are drawing person-by-person and not show-by-show. Person-by-person makes more sense for a fair lottery system, so I hope they're doing that.
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
Doing show by show is fair as it takes priority 1 first, and so on. They have clearly stated they'll be going show by show.0 -
Do you have any confirmation that "they start with priority 1 entries, then if any tickets are left over they move on to priority 2..."? That seems an odd choice [see my other post].NewfieintheUSA said:
No, they are drawing entries at random. They start with priority 1 entries, then if any tickets are left over they move on to priority 2 entries, and so on until all tickets are gone (or all entries are selected).ritg19 said:Is this right? 'GA only' requests are filled before 'best available' requests? So they fill all of "GA only" requests, and then give remaining GA tickets, if available, to the "best available" folks...
When you are selected, they check what you enters for, if GA only, if there are GA tickets left, you get them, if not, you don't get any tickets. If Best Available, you get GA if they are available, otherwise Reserved.0 -
Have to cordially disagree. What you describe is precisely what turns this into a guessing game. You may be right that they're doing things this way (and your point that they are notifying us show by show is well taken), but I don't think it's fairer or simpler.NewfieintheUSA said:
That makes no sense. How would person by person work?Mozzy said:
Other people have stated that they've heard directly from 10C that they are drawing person-by-person and not show-by-show. Person-by-person makes more sense for a fair lottery system, so I hope they're doing that.
I read in one of the FAQs that confirms the drawing is going show-by-show, so it's logical to think they'd do that in chronological order of the tour dates and then notify everyone once all the entries for that show have been considered. The waiting is going to suck unless the odds remain at or near 99%.
That's my guess as well, and if that's right and they're evenly distributed, it will go:
My best guess is they will do it show-by-show, in order.PJNB said:
Throughout the 4 days they said.CantKeepmedown said:Has there been clarity around when we'll get results? I know it said by Sunday night. But is it possible people start finding out tomorrow? Or is just Sunday?
Thursday: Canadian shows
Friday: Northeast shows, Nashville & St. Louis
Saturday: OKC, Denver, Phoenix, SD
Sunday: Remaining CA shows
Doing show by show is fair as it takes priority 1 first, and so on. They have clearly stated they'll be going show by show.0
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