North American Tour Odds

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  • ricardofurriel
    ricardofurriel Posts: 265
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    Severed Hand
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,884
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
  • Mozzy
    Mozzy Posts: 154
    Renfield said:
    lfitzpatrick9 said:
    tdawe 
    What were the odds for reserved in 2016 when they were at MSG and does anyone remember the odds for Fenway a couple years ago for reserved not GA. Just curious. Cause as of right now it looks like ten club was able to obtain more tickets this go around. Which I tip my hat off to them. Hope we all get at least one of the shows we put in for.  
    @lfitzpatrick9  MSG odds 2016....not sure if it’s a good benchmark now that PJ has an unprecedented amount of 10C seats

    Thanks for this!
  • ricardofurriel
    ricardofurriel Posts: 265
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    Severed Hand
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,884
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    yes....as said above if you want those cities just gotta put in and take your chances. Somebody has to win all those GA spots..why not you?
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,554
    CantKeepmedown said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Mozzy said:
    Just updated again

    Baltimore: 19/85
    MSG: 13/74
    Nashville: 28/99
    STL: 28/99
    OKC: 92/99
    Denver: 32/99
    PHX: 51/99
    SD: 49/99
    LA1: 37/99
    LA2: 39/99
    OAK1: 43/99
    OAK2: 55/99





    “Hey dude, let’s practice our guitars a lot so we can make it big. We’ll start this incredible fan club so we’ll know where our fans are and then play everywhere but.” Lamenting, yes.

    thinking NY and Baltimore are dropping and dropping and  dropping tomorrow.
    They'll be back in the fall. It'll be OK, I promise.

    That's what I keep telling myself, at least.  I have zero expectations for the lottery.  Since I had to pivot from Quebec, I knew it would be a longshot getting to see a show (NY).  If it happens, great.  If not, I'll have more chances later this year.  

    Thanks. I'm cool with it. Just like to joke about the ticket challenges near NY. Its usually a tough ticket. This time will be up there.
  • tdawe
    tdawe Posts: 2,091
    kst said:
    tdawe said:
    verceman said:
    Baltimore is right now 85% reserved. What do you think my chances are at 2nd priority?
    Somewhere between 85 and 99 percent. 
    Disagree.  It depends where people have prioritized it.  If half the Bal people have it first and half have it second, at 85% all the firsts would get it and 70% of the seconds.  That’s a slightly unrealistic example just to illustrate the point.  I don’t think it’s likely that the probability could actually be higher than 85% if it’s the second pick.  This would require an assumption of many people ranking it third or lower.  Does not add up for me.
    You’re right - I was imagining a different distribution but it’s probably the case that there are more firsts and seconds than anything else. However I bet there are more seconds than you might think (a lot of MSG 1 Baltimore 2’s) plus a chunk of people who got whatever reason are third or lower (I imagine that if we could see all the entries we’d be shocked at how much weird shit there is) so the odds for second are probably not that far south of what’s shown. 
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • jefft
    jefft Posts: 678
    edited January 2020
    Your Request Summary

    Please note: odds reflect the odds at the time of your request. These odds will change over time until the Ticket Request period has closed. Ten Club and Ticketmaster are working closely to ensure the fan club ticket request process remains the same as in years past; these odds follow the same logic and rules that have always governed Ten Club ticketing.


    Might answer some peoples questions.

  • drakeheuer14
    drakeheuer14 Posts: 4,628
    I think anyone who puts in for just one GA ticket should automatically get it :dizzy:
    Pittsburgh 2013
    Cincinnati 2014
    Greenville 2016
    (Raleigh 2016)
    Columbia 2016
  • MUZIK
    MUZIK Posts: 630
    Doesn’t TM update the odds @ 8am? 

    Anything changed?
    09.11.98, 08.24.00, 08.25.00, 04.30.03, 07.08.03, 07.08.03, 09.15.05, 09.16.05, 09.19.05, 09.30.05, 10.01.05, 05.12.06, 05.13.06, 05.25.06, 05.27.06, 05.28.06, 06.01.06, 06.03.06, 06.19.08, 06.20.08, 06.22.08, 06.24.08, 06.25.08, 06.27.08, 06.28.08, 06.30.08, 07.01.08, 08.05.08, 08.07.08, 10.27.09, 10.30.09, 10.31.09, 05.18.10, 05.20.10, 05.21.10, 10.15.13, 10.18.13, 10,19,13, 9.23.15, 9.26.15, 04.28.16, 04.29.16, 05.01.16, 05.02.16, 05.06.22, 05.07.22, 09.14.22
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,554
    What time did the morning odds update yesterday?
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    edited January 2020
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,884
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    Great advice from someone that has yet to put their picks in waiting to see how the odds land....
  • ricardofurriel
    ricardofurriel Posts: 265
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 

    Severed Hand
  • ecdanc
    ecdanc Posts: 1,814
    PJNB said:
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    Great advice from someone that has yet to put their picks in waiting to see how the odds land....
    Fire. 
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,884
    ecdanc said:
    PJNB said:
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    Great advice from someone that has yet to put their picks in waiting to see how the odds land....
    Fire. 
    my waiting has NOTHING to do with the odds...I'm waiting for a person to confirm or deny they are going to AZ so I know what to request...so enjoy your day 
  • bootlegger10
    bootlegger10 Posts: 16,301
    Burn!
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    gotthebottle said:
    ecdanc said:
    PJNB said:
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    Great advice from someone that has yet to put their picks in waiting to see how the odds land....
    Fire. 
    my waiting has NOTHING to do with the odds...I'm waiting for a person to confirm or deny they are going to AZ so I know what to request...so enjoy your day 
    And same to you! 

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