North American Tour Odds

jdopj said:

PushinPaint said:

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 

This is incorrect
99% is basically 100%

If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 

OceansJenny said:

ritg19 said:

Does anyone have MSG worse than a priority 2?  Would be nice to know how many low priority submissions are driving the odds down.

I saw some people post they threw MSG GA on a as a last selection gamble.

I put it something like #6. I will not be booking any flights.

jdopj said:

PushinPaint said:

jdopj said:

PushinPaint said:

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 

This is incorrect
99% is basically 100%

If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 

Correct. They list at 99% in case there is some screw up or something. Gives them an out.
Nothing in life is guaranteed, lol

That's the truth!!

scrappysattic said:

So I put in for GA for a show and that's it.   Now Im thinking I should have put in for Best Available or added reserved for the same show in case I don't get GA.   Am I able to go back and add another option?  Also, don't want to end up buying 4 tickets, lets say I win GA but also get reserved for the same show.   Any suggestions on what I should do?

You won't get GA and reserved for the same show. If you feel strongly about GA, just do GA. If you just want to be in the building, do best available. You can update your choices at any point before 11:59 pm on Wednesday - basically just start the process over and put in a new request, and it will supersede your last one.

brucejam28 said:

So nervous about MSG lol. I have reserved as my first choice and only choice. 80% odds sounds nice but still room to fail. Maybe odds will be higher since I’m putting reserved as my first priority?

I wonder what the odds will end up dropping to. 

I don't know the answer, but does picking only reserved actually increase your chances over just "best available"?  Unless you absolutely don't want GA, I would just put best available.  Worst case, as others said, you can just swap them out with somebody in reserved.  

CantKeepmedown said:

brucejam28 said:

So nervous about MSG lol. I have reserved as my first choice and only choice. 80% odds sounds nice but still room to fail. Maybe odds will be higher since I’m putting reserved as my first priority?

I wonder what the odds will end up dropping to. 

I don't know the answer, but does picking only reserved actually increase your chances over just "best available"?  Unless you absolutely don't want GA, I would just put best available.  Worst case, as others said, you can just swap them out with somebody in reserved.  

No

CantKeepmedown said:

brucejam28 said:

So nervous about MSG lol. I have reserved as my first choice and only choice. 80% odds sounds nice but still room to fail. Maybe odds will be higher since I’m putting reserved as my first priority?

I wonder what the odds will end up dropping to. 

I don't know the answer, but does picking only reserved actually increase your chances over just "best available"?  Unless you absolutely don't want GA, I would just put best available.  Worst case, as others said, you can just swap them out with somebody in reserved.  

I think it would be a wash.   GA tickets are less plentiful.  Thus I would expect the odds of best available and reserved to be exactly the same.   Ergo only choose best available if you want to be in GA.

It's kind of cool, because previously it was riskier choosing GA.  Tickets were less plentiful, and if you missed it, you're reserved option was treated as going in the next round.   It meant people who only go for reserved could get tickets to your show as their 2nd show before you got your 1st tickets.

It's nice that it closed that loophole and took off a little stress for people who like GA.  On the flipside this might make more people try for GA.

msg ga 13% reserved 80% as of 6:48pm est

MD190661 said:

yanknuck said:

albysly said:

Does anyone have any idea how many 10C members there are?  There's a thread on here, but its from years ago (2013, I think) 

You beat me to it. I was going to ask the same question. After all, isn't that what really matters?

My buddy joined Saturday so he could get tickets and he's at 704xxx. I joined over 15 years ago and have 410xxx. Of course I don't know how many current paid members there are.

Wow, I joined near the end of 2014 and my number is 530xxx. So only roughly 120k new members in the 11 years between you and I joining and 170k+ new in around half that time since

Last night the odds updated around 8pm Eastern.  We'll see if it does the same tonight.