Options

North American Tour Odds

1679111233

Comments

  • Options
    lfitzpatrick9lfitzpatrick9 NJ Posts: 372
    tdawe said:
    Saltzy23 said:
    Starting to think winning NYC and Baltimore might be a tall order.
    With two shows for the entire northeast it was always going to be that way. It’s looking much better than I expected.
    What were the odds for reserved in 2016 when they were at MSG and does anyone remember the odds for Fenway a couple years ago for reserved not GA. Just curious. Cause as of right now it looks like ten club was able to obtain more tickets this go around. Which I tip my hat off to them. Hope we all get at least one of the shows we put in for.  
  • Options
    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,124
    Mozzy said:
    Just updated again

    Baltimore: 19/85
    MSG: 13/74
    Nashville: 28/99
    STL: 28/99
    OKC: 92/99
    Denver: 32/99
    PHX: 51/99
    SD: 49/99
    LA1: 37/99
    LA2: 39/99
    OAK1: 43/99
    OAK2: 55/99





    “Hey dude, let’s practice our guitars a lot so we can make it big. We’ll start this incredible fan club so we’ll know where our fans are and then play everywhere but.” Lamenting, yes.

    thinking NY and Baltimore are dropping and dropping and  dropping tomorrow.
  • Options
    1ThoughtKnown1ThoughtKnown Posts: 6,155
    edited January 2020
    Minor surprise Denver such a  tough GA ticket. Hopefully making it my #1 choice pays off
    EDIT - St Lou and Nashvegas are tougher 
    Post edited by 1ThoughtKnown on
  • Options
    CO278952CO278952 Orlando, FL Posts: 1,233
    estarr31 said:
    tschav said:

    It will be interesting how much of each blue section is used for 10c... full sections or an allotment of the first ___ rows of each area?
    Really seems like it's the entire section. Only one show, not many on east coast. They probably have enough demand to fill. And even if they dont, then the rest are released in public sale. It's a win-win. I don't think they're misleading anyone here by shading in the entire area yet only having access to some of the seats. 
    Agree with this common sense assessment!  See you at MSG!
    4.17.94 Paramount 9.28.96 Randall's Island 8.25.00 Jones Beach 4.28.03 Spectrum 7.5.03 Camden 7.6.03 Camden
    07.08.03 MSG 07.09.03 MSG 7.12.03 Hershey 7.14.03 Holmdel 6.12.08 Tampa 10.19.13 Brooklyn 4.11.16 Tampa
    5.1.16 MSG 5.2.16 MSG 8.7.16 Fenway 9.2.18 Fenway 9.4.18 Fenway 9.11.22 MSG 9.16.22 Nashville 9.18.23 Austin 9.19.23 Austin
  • Options
    demetriosdemetrios Canada Posts: 87,902
    PJNB said:
    I do not have access to those Canadian odds but those are the same as this morning aren't they? I take it they have not updated yet?

    Last night's odds were different then early yesterday mornings.
  • Options
    PJNB said:
    mace1229 said:
    I asked ticketmaster email but haven't heard back yet...if original purchaser of a pair can't go I assume they have to throw the pair into the FAn to Fan exchange since the tix are non-transferable and the other person who CAN go is SOL?

    Did it ever say you have to sell fan to fan as a pair?
    I would assume you could sell one to the friend via fan to fan and the other to some rando fan to fan. It doesn’t say fan to fan has to be a 10c member either, just that it goes through TM.
    If you read it also says that 10C will be monitoring the Fan to Fan Exchange so yeah, it is for us....I have a feeling TM will use their typical resale methodolgy for the regular tickets
    I read it as all tickets are non-transferable and need to be put on the face to face ticket exchange for sale. Except for Denver and NY. 
    That is only to us in the pre-sale....You don't know what it will say for the general sale

    VF notice has the same note about the fan to fan exchange, so pretty sure it is all of them
  • Options
    PJNB said:
    MUZIK said:
    verceman said:
    awilkins said:
    So if going to the 4 canadian shows. how the heck do you order them, assuming you desire GA for them all. Quebec City would be in 4th priority as every GA request in there now will be granted. But the other three does it matter much?
    Do you really think every Quebec GA will be granted or it's just 99% best available granted?
    wow, I just looked and indeed GA is 99% odds. Wow, what the heck Quebec????
    Quebec City is 3.5 from Montreal.

    i mean that’s what they get for not doing a show in Montreal that would most likely sell out. 
    Quebec City is going to sell out though. GA was down to 44% in 2016. Those odds are from this morning and they will be down on the next update I bet. 
    It sold out in 30 minutes in 2016 during the public sale. Very special music fans in Quebec City. Festival d'été de Quebec often gets over 150k fans per concert. In 2015, Metallica closed the old Colisée Pepsi, and then opened the Videotron Centre the next day. 

    Montreal 98, 00, 03, 05, 11
    Toronto 03, 06, 11
    Ottawa 05, 11
    Quebec 05; Saratoga 00; Boston 04; Toledo 04
    Albany 06; Honolulu 06; Hartford 08
    Costa Rica 11
    London (Ont.), Hartford 13
    Quebec, Fenway 1 + 2 16; London 18
    EV Montreal (2), Berkeley II, Albany, Boston, London (UK)

  • Options
    Quebec City odds are now 75/99
  • Options
    PJNBPJNB Posts: 12,782
    jmbethony said:
    Quebec City odds are now 75/99
    Mine still shows 99% for QBC


  • Options
    PJNB said:
    jmbethony said:
    Quebec City odds are now 75/99
    Mine still shows 99% for QBC


    You’re right. I was looking at Ottawa. It’s still early. 
  • Options
    PJNBPJNB Posts: 12,782
    The only difference I see for the last 24 hours for the CAN shows is Ottawa is down 2% from 77% to 75%. 

    Something is not right there. 

    Yesterday morning

    TO 40 / 99 OTT 77 / 99 QBC 99 / 99 HAM 51 / 99

    Today

    TO 40 / 99 OTT 75 / 99 QBC 99 / 99 HAM 51 / 99
  • Options
    CantKeepmedownCantKeepmedown Portland, Maine Posts: 2,922
    Mozzy said:
    Just updated again

    Baltimore: 19/85
    MSG: 13/74
    Nashville: 28/99
    STL: 28/99
    OKC: 92/99
    Denver: 32/99
    PHX: 51/99
    SD: 49/99
    LA1: 37/99
    LA2: 39/99
    OAK1: 43/99
    OAK2: 55/99





    “Hey dude, let’s practice our guitars a lot so we can make it big. We’ll start this incredible fan club so we’ll know where our fans are and then play everywhere but.” Lamenting, yes.

    thinking NY and Baltimore are dropping and dropping and  dropping tomorrow.
    They'll be back in the fall. It'll be OK, I promise.

    That's what I keep telling myself, at least.  I have zero expectations for the lottery.  Since I had to pivot from Quebec, I knew it would be a longshot getting to see a show (NY).  If it happens, great.  If not, I'll have more chances later this year.  
  • Options
    RenfieldRenfield NYC NY Posts: 1,054
    What were the odds for reserved in 2016 when they were at MSG and does anyone remember the odds for Fenway a couple years ago for reserved not GA. Just curious. Cause as of right now it looks like ten club was able to obtain more tickets this go around. Which I tip my hat off to them. Hope we all get at least one of the shows we put in for.  
    @lfitzpatrick9  MSG odds 2016....not sure if it’s a good benchmark now that PJ has an unprecedented amount of 10C seats

  • Options
    JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 18,922
    Given how much confusion there has been about the process (tl,dr) I'm betting many of my fellow Americans missed that they needed to click to a separate page to select Canadian shows.
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Options
    PJNBPJNB Posts: 12,782
    JimmyV said:
    Given how much confusion there has been about the process (tl,dr) I'm betting many of my fellow Americans missed that they needed to click to a separate page to select Canadian shows.
    I am sure that has happened but Toronto should be the second worse odds for GA even so. No way it goes 24hours without moving 1%. 
  • Options
    RenfieldRenfield NYC NY Posts: 1,054
    JimmyV said:
    Given how much confusion there has been about the process (tl,dr) I'm betting many of my fellow Americans missed that they needed to click to a separate page to select Canadian shows.
    I missed it at first because I only cared about MSG. It’s on the first page when you go step by step 
    Step 1. Go to https://ticketmaster.com/tenclub 

  • Options
    JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 18,922
    Mozzy said:
    Just updated again

    Baltimore: 19/85
    MSG: 13/74
    Nashville: 28/99
    STL: 28/99
    OKC: 92/99
    Denver: 32/99
    PHX: 51/99
    SD: 49/99
    LA1: 37/99
    LA2: 39/99
    OAK1: 43/99
    OAK2: 55/99





    “Hey dude, let’s practice our guitars a lot so we can make it big. We’ll start this incredible fan club so we’ll know where our fans are and then play everywhere but.” Lamenting, yes.

    thinking NY and Baltimore are dropping and dropping and  dropping tomorrow.
    They'll be back in the fall. It'll be OK, I promise.

    That's what I keep telling myself, at least.  I have zero expectations for the lottery.  Since I had to pivot from Quebec, I knew it would be a longshot getting to see a show (NY).  If it happens, great.  If not, I'll have more chances later this year.  
    They'll be back in the fall. Backspacer and Lightning Bolt both dropped in the fall with a first leg then and a second leg the following spring. Only difference now is that Gigaton is dropping in the spring. Have faith in leg 2.
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Options
    PJNB said:
    JimmyV said:
    Given how much confusion there has been about the process (tl,dr) I'm betting many of my fellow Americans missed that they needed to click to a separate page to select Canadian shows.
    I am sure that has happened but Toronto should be the second worse odds for GA even so. No way it goes 24hours without moving 1%. 
    Agreed, something feels off about this. But I'm hoping the odds are correct.
  • Options
    hihobibohihobibo Tampa, FL Posts: 1,058
    Who has yet to put in, and if not, then why the hold out? Or is anyone adding to your itinerary based on the odds? I would think everyone who wants to go already put in their requests, so odds wouldn't change too much today, but I know that there are also superstitious people who think they have a better chance the closer to the deadline they submit. .
  • Options
    gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,396
    hihobibo said:
    Who has yet to put in, and if not, then why the hold out? Or is anyone adding to your itinerary based on the odds? I would think everyone who wants to go already put in their requests, so odds wouldn't change too much today, but I know that there are also superstitious people who think they have a better chance the closer to the deadline they submit. .
    I haven't submitted my picks yet. Since this is probably all California will get (and southwest) I'm trying to figure out how many shows I can see. It is likely in the fall shows stay MOSTLY east of Mississippi (except northwest and maybe Texas). In the fall I'd have to travel (as usual)
  • Options
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    Severed Hand
  • Options
    gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,396
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
  • Options
    MozzyMozzy Posts: 154
    Renfield said:
    What were the odds for reserved in 2016 when they were at MSG and does anyone remember the odds for Fenway a couple years ago for reserved not GA. Just curious. Cause as of right now it looks like ten club was able to obtain more tickets this go around. Which I tip my hat off to them. Hope we all get at least one of the shows we put in for.  
    @lfitzpatrick9  MSG odds 2016....not sure if it’s a good benchmark now that PJ has an unprecedented amount of 10C seats

    Thanks for this!
  • Options
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    Severed Hand
  • Options
    PJNBPJNB Posts: 12,782
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
  • Options
    gotthebottlegotthebottle San Diego Posts: 2,396
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    yes....as said above if you want those cities just gotta put in and take your chances. Somebody has to win all those GA spots..why not you?
  • Options
    Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,124
    Mozzy said:
    Just updated again

    Baltimore: 19/85
    MSG: 13/74
    Nashville: 28/99
    STL: 28/99
    OKC: 92/99
    Denver: 32/99
    PHX: 51/99
    SD: 49/99
    LA1: 37/99
    LA2: 39/99
    OAK1: 43/99
    OAK2: 55/99





    “Hey dude, let’s practice our guitars a lot so we can make it big. We’ll start this incredible fan club so we’ll know where our fans are and then play everywhere but.” Lamenting, yes.

    thinking NY and Baltimore are dropping and dropping and  dropping tomorrow.
    They'll be back in the fall. It'll be OK, I promise.

    That's what I keep telling myself, at least.  I have zero expectations for the lottery.  Since I had to pivot from Quebec, I knew it would be a longshot getting to see a show (NY).  If it happens, great.  If not, I'll have more chances later this year.  

    Thanks. I'm cool with it. Just like to joke about the ticket challenges near NY. Its usually a tough ticket. This time will be up there.
  • Options
    tdawetdawe Posts: 2,002
    kst said:
    tdawe said:
    verceman said:
    Baltimore is right now 85% reserved. What do you think my chances are at 2nd priority?
    Somewhere between 85 and 99 percent. 
    Disagree.  It depends where people have prioritized it.  If half the Bal people have it first and half have it second, at 85% all the firsts would get it and 70% of the seconds.  That’s a slightly unrealistic example just to illustrate the point.  I don’t think it’s likely that the probability could actually be higher than 85% if it’s the second pick.  This would require an assumption of many people ranking it third or lower.  Does not add up for me.
    You’re right - I was imagining a different distribution but it’s probably the case that there are more firsts and seconds than anything else. However I bet there are more seconds than you might think (a lot of MSG 1 Baltimore 2’s) plus a chunk of people who got whatever reason are third or lower (I imagine that if we could see all the entries we’d be shocked at how much weird shit there is) so the odds for second are probably not that far south of what’s shown. 
  • Options
    jefftjefft Posts: 650
    edited January 2020
    Your Request Summary

    Please note: odds reflect the odds at the time of your request. These odds will change over time until the Ticket Request period has closed. Ten Club and Ticketmaster are working closely to ensure the fan club ticket request process remains the same as in years past; these odds follow the same logic and rules that have always governed Ten Club ticketing.


    Might answer some peoples questions.

  • Options
    drakeheuer14drakeheuer14 Posts: 4,391
    I think anyone who puts in for just one GA ticket should automatically get it :dizzy:
    Pittsburgh 2013
    Cincinnati 2014
    Greenville 2016
    (Raleigh 2016)
    Columbia 2016
Sign In or Register to comment.