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North American Tour Odds

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    lfitzpatrick9lfitzpatrick9 NJ Posts: 372
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?
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    ajflickerajflicker Canada Posts: 166
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

    I didn't get the $1 charge either.

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    jdopjjdopj Posts: 647
    Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

    So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 



    This is incorrect
    99% is basically 100%
    If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10
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    ajflicker said:
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

    I didn't get the $1 charge either.


    Me either - I'm not worried about it.  I know I have a valid cc entered, and I got the confirmation email.
    or you can come to terms and realize
    you're the only one who can forgive yourself oh yeah...
    makes much more sense to live in the present tense...

    2009: 8/23, 8/24 (Chicago) 2010:  5/9 (Cleveland) 2013 7/19 (Chicago) 2016: 4/9 (Miami), 5/1 (NYC), 8/20 & 8/22 (Chicago)
    2018: 8/18 (Chicago) & 8/20 (Chicago) 2022:  9/11 (NYC), 9/18 (STL) 2023:  9/5 (Chicago), 9/7 (Chicago)

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    JojoRiceJojoRice Kennesaw, GA Posts: 3,919
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?
    I did not get the $1 charge either and I submitted mine early on
    "I got memories, I got shit"

    ISO 2016 Greenville shirt. Size medium. PM me if you have one for sale/trade.
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    ajflickerajflicker Canada Posts: 166
    ajflicker said:
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

    I didn't get the $1 charge either.


    Me either - I'm not worried about it.  I know I have a valid cc entered, and I got the confirmation email.

    I am more worried they won't take my Visa Debit..lol.
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    lfitzpatrick9lfitzpatrick9 NJ Posts: 372
    ajflicker said:
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

    I didn't get the $1 charge either.

    Perfect just was curious.  Much appreciated and good luck to everyone.  Thursday to Sunday cant come sooner.
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    kaikaikaikai Posts: 55
    edited January 2020
    ajflicker said:
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

    I didn't get the $1 charge either.


    Me either - I'm not worried about it.  I know I have a valid cc entered, and I got the confirmation email.
    Agreeeed. 
    Mine showed up yesterday but it was 0.00 and then fell off last night. It happens often with soft-posted items. They never said they were charging your card- just placing a temporary hold. You don’t always see that... especially if they did the 0.00 like they did with mine. (I don’t mean YOU, but just in general... to clarify)
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    FiveBelowFiveBelow Lubbock, TX Posts: 1,185
    Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.
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    JojoRiceJojoRice Kennesaw, GA Posts: 3,919
    JW269453 said:
    Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.
    Good observation. Is there a curfew for that arena possibly?
    "I got memories, I got shit"

    ISO 2016 Greenville shirt. Size medium. PM me if you have one for sale/trade.
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    SaravaSarava Naperville, IL Posts: 1,998
    estarr31 said:
    Just to follow on, have they ever used this phrase before? That's a big statement. 
     In an effort to get more tickets into the hands of Ten Club members, Pearl Jam has partnered with Ticketmaster for an exclusive members-only presale through Ticketmaster Ticket Request. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club ticket request will get tickets.
    Their email was even bolder. Here is from the email:

    Although we feel confident we’ll be able to meet the demand of most, if not all Ten Club ticket requests, we recommend that members also register for the Ticketmaster Verified Fan® presale for added peace of mind.
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    FiveBelowFiveBelow Lubbock, TX Posts: 1,185
    JojoRice said:
    JW269453 said:
    Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.
    Good observation. Is there a curfew for that arena possibly?
    Not that I could find with a simple google search. I only noticed cause the OKC show is @ 8pm and I know the Bricktown area has an 11pm curfew.

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    yanknuckyanknuck Peterborough, ON Posts: 57
    edited January 2020
    albysly said:
    Does anyone have any idea how many 10C members there are?  There's a thread on here, but its from years ago (2013, I think) 
    You beat me to it. I was going to ask the same question. After all, isn't that what really matters?
    Post edited by yanknuck on
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    jstu39jstu39 Posts: 140
    benjs said:
    jstu39 said:
    benjs said:
    Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
    Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
    Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

    So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:
    • Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
    • Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
    • If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2
    I am not sure what you are saying is accurate. I dont know and am not trying to argue.
    I dont think entering GA only gives you a better chance at GA. The way I read it is they look at first choice and select a person and see what they requested. If they selected GA and GA is available they get GA. If they selected best available and GA is available they get GA. They they selected GA and GA is full and reserved is available they get nothing. If they selected best available and GA is full and reserved is available they get reserved.
    So by selecting Best Available you get an automatic backup if you are concerned about getting in the building.
    Does that make sense? Does anyone know?
    What's been shared is that they'll draw names, deplete the appropriate pool, repeat until all first choices are done, move onto second choices, etc. I'm pretty sure the way you just explained it and the way I just explained it are the same. The only difference is your second last sentence: my understanding is that it's not a "backup" per se, it's just that if you submitted Best Available and the GA pool is depleted, but Reserved isn't, you'd be picked for Reserved. Again, this means selecting "Best Available" will give you the better odds of the two pools.
    Thanks. I think the key is selecting GA first doesn't give you a better shot at GA than selecting best available. If your name is picked and GA is available in either scenario you get GA....I think lol!
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    MickeyMouseMickeyMouse Posts: 1,053
    JW269453 said:
    Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.
    You’re reading into it. There’s a dozen reasons it might be listed as 7, but them planning a marathon set is not one of them. 
    Uniondale, NY 04/30/03 - Camden, NJ 07/05/03 - MSG 07/08/03 - Reading, PA 10/01/04 - Philly 10/03/05 - Ed Sullivan Theatre 05/04/06 - MSG 06/25/08 - MSG 05/21/10 - NYC (EV solo) 06/21/11 - Montreal 09/07/11 - Brooklyn 10/18/13 - Central Park 09/26/15 - Philly 04/29/16 - MSG 05/01/16 - MSG 05/02/16 - Fenway 08/05/16 - Fenway 09/02/18 - Fenway 09/04/18 
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    ritg19ritg19 Posts: 111
    Does anyone have MSG worse than a priority 2?  Would be nice to know how many low priority submissions are driving the odds down.
    I wish I was a sacrifice, but somehow still lived on....
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    OceansJennyOceansJenny Manhattan, NY Posts: 3,172
    ritg19 said:
    Does anyone have MSG worse than a priority 2?  Would be nice to know how many low priority submissions are driving the odds down.
    I saw some people post they threw MSG GA on a as a last selection gamble.
    DC '03 - Reading '04 - Philly '05 - Camden 1 '06 - DC '06 - E. Rutherford '06 - The Vic '07 - Lollapalooza '07 - DC '08 - EV DC 1 & 2 '08 (Met Ed!!) - EV Baltimore 1 & 2 '09 - EV NYC 1 '11 (Met Ed!) - Hartford '13 - GCF '15 - MSG 2 '16 - TOTD MSG '16 - Boston 1 & 2 '18 - SHN '21 - EV NYC 1 & 2 '22 - MSG '22
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    CantKeepmedownCantKeepmedown Portland, Maine Posts: 2,896
    My wife ixnayed our Quebec trip (nervous about not getting passports in time) which is a bummer.  Good news is she gave me the go ahead to go to NY instead with a buddy.  So add another Reserved request to the pile!  
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    My wife ixnayed our Quebec trip (nervous about not getting passports in time) which is a bummer.  Good news is she gave me the go ahead to go to NY instead with a buddy.  So add another Reserved request to the pile!  
    Passports don't take 2 months. Fight this.
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    JP218404JP218404 NJ Posts: 1,374
    ajflicker said:
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

    I didn't get the $1 charge either.

    are they even doing that?
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    smaksmak Posts: 226
    Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

    So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 



    I think 99% basically = 100%.  It starts out at 99% when nobody has put in a request.
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    jdopj said:
    Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

    So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 



    This is incorrect
    99% is basically 100%
    If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

    Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 
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    jdopjjdopj Posts: 647
    jdopj said:
    Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

    So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 



    This is incorrect
    99% is basically 100%
    If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

    Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 
    Correct. They list at 99% in case there is some screw up or something. Gives them an out.
    Nothing in life is guaranteed, lol
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    kaw753kaw753 Posts: 752
    ritg19 said:
    Does anyone have MSG worse than a priority 2?  Would be nice to know how many low priority submissions are driving the odds down.
    I saw some people post they threw MSG GA on a as a last selection gamble.
    I put it something like #6. I will not be booking any flights.
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    scrappysatticscrappysattic Lawrence, KS Posts: 302
    So I put in for GA for a show and that's it.   Now Im thinking I should have put in for Best Available or added reserved for the same show in case I don't get GA.   Am I able to go back and add another option?  Also, don't want to end up buying 4 tickets, lets say I win GA but also get reserved for the same show.   Any suggestions on what I should do?

    96' - Hartford
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    00' - Mansfield Night 2
    03' - Mansfield Night 1
    04' - VFC St Louis
    10' - Kansas City
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    jdopj said:
    jdopj said:
    Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

    So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 



    This is incorrect
    99% is basically 100%
    If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

    Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 
    Correct. They list at 99% in case there is some screw up or something. Gives them an out.
    Nothing in life is guaranteed, lol
    That's the truth!!
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    jdizzle8291jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    So I put in for GA for a show and that's it.   Now Im thinking I should have put in for Best Available or added reserved for the same show in case I don't get GA.   Am I able to go back and add another option?  Also, don't want to end up buying 4 tickets, lets say I win GA but also get reserved for the same show.   Any suggestions on what I should do?
    You can go back in and do a new request entry, it will wipe your old one out. You will only win one or the other for one show, not both.

    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
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    tdawetdawe Posts: 1,996
    So I put in for GA for a show and that's it.   Now Im thinking I should have put in for Best Available or added reserved for the same show in case I don't get GA.   Am I able to go back and add another option?  Also, don't want to end up buying 4 tickets, lets say I win GA but also get reserved for the same show.   Any suggestions on what I should do?
    You won't get GA and reserved for the same show. If you feel strongly about GA, just do GA. If you just want to be in the building, do best available. You can update your choices at any point before 11:59 pm on Wednesday - basically just start the process over and put in a new request, and it will supersede your last one.
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    ajflicker said:
    Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

    I didn't get the $1 charge either.

    I got a $0 charge.
    "This melody, inside of me, still searches for a solution."
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    CantKeepmedownCantKeepmedown Portland, Maine Posts: 2,896
    So nervous about MSG lol. I have reserved as my first choice and only choice. 80% odds sounds nice but still room to fail. Maybe odds will be higher since I’m putting reserved as my first priority?

    I wonder what the odds will end up dropping to. 
    I don't know the answer, but does picking only reserved actually increase your chances over just "best available"?  Unless you absolutely don't want GA, I would just put best available.  Worst case, as others said, you can just swap them out with somebody in reserved.  
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