North American Tour Odds

lfitzpatrick9

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

ajflicker

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I didn't get the $1 charge either.

jdopj

PushinPaint said:

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 

This is incorrect
99% is basically 100%

If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

IlliniGuy76

ajflicker said:

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I didn't get the $1 charge either.

Me either - I'm not worried about it.  I know I have a valid cc entered, and I got the confirmation email.

JojoRice

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I did not get the $1 charge either and I submitted mine early on

ajflicker

IlliniGuy76 said:

ajflicker said:

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I didn't get the $1 charge either.

Me either - I'm not worried about it.  I know I have a valid cc entered, and I got the confirmation email.

I am more worried they won't take my Visa Debit..lol.

lfitzpatrick9

ajflicker said:

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I didn't get the $1 charge either.

Perfect just was curious.  Much appreciated and good luck to everyone.  Thursday to Sunday cant come sooner.

kaikai

IlliniGuy76 said:

ajflicker said:

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I didn't get the $1 charge either.

Me either - I'm not worried about it.  I know I have a valid cc entered, and I got the confirmation email.

Agreeeed. 

Mine showed up yesterday but it was 0.00 and then fell off last night. It happens often with soft-posted items. They never said they were charging your card- just placing a temporary hold. You don’t always see that... especially if they did the 0.00 like they did with mine. (I don’t mean YOU, but just in general... to clarify)

FiveBelow

Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.

JojoRice

JW269453 said:

Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.

Good observation. Is there a curfew for that arena possibly?

Sarava

estarr31 said:

Just to follow on, have they ever used this phrase before? That's a big statement. 

 In an effort to get more tickets into the hands of Ten Club members, Pearl Jam has partnered with Ticketmaster for an exclusive members-only presale through Ticketmaster Ticket Request. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club ticket request will get tickets.

Their email was even bolder. Here is from the email:

Although we feel confident we’ll be able to meet the demand of most, if not all Ten Club ticket requests, we recommend that members also register for the Ticketmaster Verified Fan® presale for added peace of mind.

FiveBelow

JojoRice said:

JW269453 said:

Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.

Good observation. Is there a curfew for that arena possibly?

Not that I could find with a simple google search. I only noticed cause the OKC show is @ 8pm and I know the Bricktown area has an 11pm curfew.

yanknuck

albysly said:

Does anyone have any idea how many 10C members there are?  There's a thread on here, but its from years ago (2013, I think) 

You beat me to it. I was going to ask the same question. After all, isn't that what really matters?

jstu39

benjs said:

jstu39 said:

benjs said:

Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:

• Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
• Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
• If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2

I am not sure what you are saying is accurate. I dont know and am not trying to argue.
I dont think entering GA only gives you a better chance at GA. The way I read it is they look at first choice and select a person and see what they requested. If they selected GA and GA is available they get GA. If they selected best available and GA is available they get GA. They they selected GA and GA is full and reserved is available they get nothing. If they selected best available and GA is full and reserved is available they get reserved.
So by selecting Best Available you get an automatic backup if you are concerned about getting in the building.
Does that make sense? Does anyone know?

What's been shared is that they'll draw names, deplete the appropriate pool, repeat until all first choices are done, move onto second choices, etc. I'm pretty sure the way you just explained it and the way I just explained it are the same. The only difference is your second last sentence: my understanding is that it's not a "backup" per se, it's just that if you submitted Best Available and the GA pool is depleted, but Reserved isn't, you'd be picked for Reserved. Again, this means selecting "Best Available" will give you the better odds of the two pools.

Thanks. I think the key is selecting GA first doesn't give you a better shot at GA than selecting best available. If your name is picked and GA is available in either scenario you get GA....I think lol!

MickeyMouse

JW269453 said:

Anyone else notice the show times? St. Louis is the only one @ 7pm, this may be the marathon set of this leg. Or maybe I'm just reading into this as much as others are into the odds.

You’re reading into it. There’s a dozen reasons it might be listed as 7, but them planning a marathon set is not one of them. 

ritg19

Does anyone have MSG worse than a priority 2?  Would be nice to know how many low priority submissions are driving the odds down.

OceansJenny

ritg19 said:

Does anyone have MSG worse than a priority 2?  Would be nice to know how many low priority submissions are driving the odds down.

I saw some people post they threw MSG GA on a as a last selection gamble.

CantKeepmedown

My wife ixnayed our Quebec trip (nervous about not getting passports in time) which is a bummer.  Good news is she gave me the go ahead to go to NY instead with a buddy.  So add another Reserved request to the pile!  

BennyLaRue

CantKeepmedown said:

My wife ixnayed our Quebec trip (nervous about not getting passports in time) which is a bummer.  Good news is she gave me the go ahead to go to NY instead with a buddy.  So add another Reserved request to the pile!  

Passports don't take 2 months. Fight this.

JP218404

ajflicker said:

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I didn't get the $1 charge either.

are they even doing that?

smak

PushinPaint said:

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 

I think 99% basically = 100%.  It starts out at 99% when nobody has put in a request.

PushinPaint

jdopj said:

PushinPaint said:

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 

This is incorrect
99% is basically 100%

If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 

jdopj

PushinPaint said:

jdopj said:

PushinPaint said:

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 

This is incorrect
99% is basically 100%

If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 

Correct. They list at 99% in case there is some screw up or something. Gives them an out.
Nothing in life is guaranteed, lol

kaw753

OceansJenny said:

ritg19 said:

Does anyone have MSG worse than a priority 2?  Would be nice to know how many low priority submissions are driving the odds down.

I saw some people post they threw MSG GA on a as a last selection gamble.

I put it something like #6. I will not be booking any flights.

scrappysattic

So I put in for GA for a show and that's it.   Now Im thinking I should have put in for Best Available or added reserved for the same show in case I don't get GA.   Am I able to go back and add another option?  Also, don't want to end up buying 4 tickets, lets say I win GA but also get reserved for the same show.   Any suggestions on what I should do?

PushinPaint

jdopj said:

PushinPaint said:

jdopj said:

PushinPaint said:

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change 

This is incorrect
99% is basically 100%

If it says 99% that means that everyone who put in for reserved for that show will get it, even pick #10

Got it.. so instead of 98% would be 100% stone cold lead pipe lock.. i can get behind that if reserved stays high for 2 shows I'm putting in for 

Correct. They list at 99% in case there is some screw up or something. Gives them an out.
Nothing in life is guaranteed, lol

That's the truth!!

jdizzle8291

scrappysattic said:

So I put in for GA for a show and that's it.   Now Im thinking I should have put in for Best Available or added reserved for the same show in case I don't get GA.   Am I able to go back and add another option?  Also, don't want to end up buying 4 tickets, lets say I win GA but also get reserved for the same show.   Any suggestions on what I should do?

You can go back in and do a new request entry, it will wipe your old one out. You will only win one or the other for one show, not both.

tdawe

scrappysattic said:

So I put in for GA for a show and that's it.   Now Im thinking I should have put in for Best Available or added reserved for the same show in case I don't get GA.   Am I able to go back and add another option?  Also, don't want to end up buying 4 tickets, lets say I win GA but also get reserved for the same show.   Any suggestions on what I should do?

You won't get GA and reserved for the same show. If you feel strongly about GA, just do GA. If you just want to be in the building, do best available. You can update your choices at any point before 11:59 pm on Wednesday - basically just start the process over and put in a new request, and it will supersede your last one.

UseUrIllusions

ajflicker said:

lfitzpatrick9 said:

Hey dumb question, submitted a ticket request for MSG and got the confirmation email but have no charge on my card yet and nothing has popped up yet.  Will the 1$ fee only pop up if I win the lottery or should i already be seeing it there?

I didn't get the $1 charge either.

I got a $0 charge.

CantKeepmedown

brucejam28 said:

So nervous about MSG lol. I have reserved as my first choice and only choice. 80% odds sounds nice but still room to fail. Maybe odds will be higher since I’m putting reserved as my first priority?

I wonder what the odds will end up dropping to. 

I don't know the answer, but does picking only reserved actually increase your chances over just "best available"?  Unless you absolutely don't want GA, I would just put best available.  Worst case, as others said, you can just swap them out with somebody in reserved.