North American Tour Odds

MUZIK · January 2020

hihobibo said:

MUZIK said:

Lerxst1992 said:

BennyLaRue said:

Goneshootin said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?

If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert.

MSG fits almost 21K for a concert

Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections

Definitely not 21k.

phish who had the whole pit GA wasn’t even 20K

Pearl Jam will be more like between 18 and 19K

Google "Madison Square Garden Concert Capacity" and it states almost 21k. I'm sure some stage setups revise that, but I'm guessing that is where the OP got that figure from.

Understood but it’s just not correct.

Phish maximize’s every space in that building more so then any artist I’ve seen and they still didn’t get to 20k.

so not sure where they could fit another thousand + more people.

Poncier · January 2020

MUZIK said:

hihobibo said:

MUZIK said:

Lerxst1992 said:

BennyLaRue said:

Goneshootin said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?

If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert.

MSG fits almost 21K for a concert

Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections

Definitely not 21k.

phish who had the whole pit GA wasn’t even 20K

Pearl Jam will be more like between 18 and 19K

Google "Madison Square Garden Concert Capacity" and it states almost 21k. I'm sure some stage setups revise that, but I'm guessing that is where the OP got that figure from.

Understood but it’s just not correct.

Phish maximize’s every space in that building more so then any artist I’ve seen and they still didn’t get to 20k.

so not sure where they could fit another thousand + more people.

If they flip the stools in the bar area over they can sit 4 people in place of 1 at each stool.

Lost_And_No_Guide · January 2020

MUZIK said:

hihobibo said:

MUZIK said:

Lerxst1992 said:

BennyLaRue said:

Goneshootin said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?

If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert.

MSG fits almost 21K for a concert

Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections

Definitely not 21k.

phish who had the whole pit GA wasn’t even 20K

Pearl Jam will be more like between 18 and 19K

Google "Madison Square Garden Concert Capacity" and it states almost 21k. I'm sure some stage setups revise that, but I'm guessing that is where the OP got that figure from.

Understood but it’s just not correct.

Phish maximize’s every space in that building more so then any artist I’ve seen and they still didn’t get to 20k.

so not sure where they could fit another thousand + more people.

True in-the-round stage configuration, rather than end-stage

estarr31 · January 2020

tschav said:

It will be interesting how much of each blue section is used for 10c... full sections or an allotment of the first ___ rows of each area?

Really seems like it's the entire section. Only one show, not many on east coast. They probably have enough demand to fill. And even if they dont, then the rest are released in public sale. It's a win-win. I don't think they're misleading anyone here by shading in the entire area yet only having access to some of the seats.

estarr31 · January 2020

Just to follow on, have they ever used this phrase before? That's a big statement.

In an effort to get more tickets into the hands of Ten Club members, Pearl Jam has partnered with Ticketmaster for an exclusive members-only presale through Ticketmaster Ticket Request. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club ticket request will get tickets.

hihobibo · January 2020

estarr31 said:

Just to follow on, have they ever used this phrase before? That's a big statement.
In an effort to get more tickets into the hands of Ten Club members, Pearl Jam has partnered with Ticketmaster for an exclusive members-only presale through Ticketmaster Ticket Request. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club ticket request will get tickets.

Yes, pretty much same wording as Home/Away shows announcement:

Ten Club has secured more tickets for these shows than ever before. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club drawing will get tickets.

PushinPaint · January 2020

Here's how I'm thinking about it. If reserved is at 99% and you select two shows as 'best available' you should have technically a 98% chance of getting reserved for both (still with possibility of GA but worst case, reserved.)

So I'm feeling pretty good at this point but we'll see how odds change

brucejam28 · January 2020

So nervous about MSG lol. I have reserved as my first choice and only choice. 80% odds sounds nice but still room to fail. Maybe odds will be higher since I’m putting reserved as my first priority?

I wonder what the odds will end up dropping to.

ajflicker · January 2020

I remember last tour they had an odds tracker page that updated every 5 minutes I think. Now it seems you don't know unless you go through the request process.

jstu39 · January 2020

benjs said:

Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:
Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2

I am not sure what you are saying is accurate. I dont know and am not trying to argue.
I dont think entering GA only gives you a better chance at GA. The way I read it is they look at first choice and select a person and see what they requested. If they selected GA and GA is available they get GA. If they selected best available and GA is available they get GA. They they selected GA and GA is full and reserved is available they get nothing. If they selected best available and GA is full and reserved is available they get reserved.
So by selecting Best Available you get an automatic backup if you are concerned about getting in the building.
Does that make sense? Does anyone know?

jdizzle8291 · January 2020

ajflicker said:

I remember last tour they had an odds tracker page that updated every 5 minutes I think. Now it seems you don't know unless you go through the request process.

Ticketmaster odds are only updating twice per day. You don't necessarily have to go through the whole process again, just have to click the link to "request shows" and the first page will show the odds. Don't have to wipe our your selection.

tempo_n_groove · January 2020

hihobibo said:

estarr31 said:

Just to follow on, have they ever used this phrase before? That's a big statement.
In an effort to get more tickets into the hands of Ten Club members, Pearl Jam has partnered with Ticketmaster for an exclusive members-only presale through Ticketmaster Ticket Request. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club ticket request will get tickets.

Yes, pretty much same wording as Home/Away shows announcement:
Ten Club has secured more tickets for these shows than ever before. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club drawing will get tickets.

Bos 1 was the only Home Show I struck out on but hit in the MLB sale.

benjs · January 2020

given2fly23 said:

benjs said:

Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

@benjs Where is this language from? I think I remember reading it but can't find it.

@given2fly23 - I've just summarized this based on what's been shared through 10C comms.

OceansJenny · January 2020

There were no odds showing for 2013 right? Maybe ignorance was bliss back then.

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

CopperTom said:

Think of it this way, the MSG Reserved odds in 2016 was about 20%. So that's 5000 requests for 1000 pairs. 5000 requests for the 2020 show would still show odds of 99%.

STOP THE CONSPIRACY THEORY

The odds work.

Only 2000 tickets thru the club in 2016? The stub hub 2016 map was almost the exact inverse of the current MSG 10C map, meaning most of what was for sale was behind stage or in rafters. Most if the arena last time was either 10c or insiders/season tickets.

I'm not thinking conspiracy. But am thinking the club has about 5500 msg pairs and will get 20,000 requests.

given2fly23 · January 2020

benjs said:

given2fly23 said:

benjs said:

Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

@benjs Where is this language from? I think I remember reading it but can't find it.

@given2fly23 - I've just summarized this based on what's been shared through 10C comms.

Gotcha. I'm trying to find actual language from 10C or TM of how the odds are being calculated this time around (seems way different than the old way) but not seeing it anywhere.

benjs · January 2020

jstu39 said:

benjs said:

Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:
Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2

I am not sure what you are saying is accurate. I dont know and am not trying to argue.
I dont think entering GA only gives you a better chance at GA. The way I read it is they look at first choice and select a person and see what they requested. If they selected GA and GA is available they get GA. If they selected best available and GA is available they get GA. They they selected GA and GA is full and reserved is available they get nothing. If they selected best available and GA is full and reserved is available they get reserved.
So by selecting Best Available you get an automatic backup if you are concerned about getting in the building.
Does that make sense? Does anyone know?

What's been shared is that they'll draw names, deplete the appropriate pool, repeat until all first choices are done, move onto second choices, etc. I'm pretty sure the way you just explained it and the way I just explained it are the same. The only difference is your second last sentence: my understanding is that it's not a "backup" per se, it's just that if you submitted Best Available and the GA pool is depleted, but Reserved isn't, you'd be picked for Reserved. Again, this means selecting "Best Available" will give you the better odds of the two pools.

Lerxst1992 · January 2020

wallerce said:

So I have a question on strategy based on the latest odds. I plan on putting in for MSG and the Phoenix shows and considering that Phoenix is still showing 99% for reserved seats, should I put in MSG as 1st priority (best available) and then Phoenix as my 2nd priority (best available)? I believe this would give me the greatest chance to get tickets to both shows. And yes, I understand that nothing is guaranteed with this lottery.

I'm guessing MSG odds will eventually be very low. So that might be risking a solid chance of winning to missing out if PhD drops below @60 to 70%

ajflicker · January 2020

Here's an interesting question. Does the 10C pre-sale take Visa Debit? I don't have a CC but my 10C renews through my Visa Debit. I know ticketmaster's site said they accept debits with a major credit card logo. I can't remember if that's how paid last time I got drawn for the 10C pre-sale in 2016.

albysly · January 2020

Does anyone have any idea how many 10C members there are? There's a thread on here, but its from years ago (2013, I think)

North American Tour Odds

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Ten Club has secured more tickets for these shows than ever before. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club drawing will get tickets.

Ten Club has secured more tickets for these shows than ever before. The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club drawing will get tickets.

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